Integrating climate forecasting tools into predictive models of marine mammal distribution

Transcription

1 Integrating climate forecasting tools into predictive models of marine mammal distribution Elizabeth Becker 1, Dave Foley 1, 2, Karin Forney 1, Jay Barlow 1 1 NOAA Fisheries, Southwest Fisheries Science Center 2 Joint Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, University of Hawaii

2 Battle Space On Demand Linking Forecasts to Decisions Decision Superiority: Making informed decisions Conduct operations with minimal risk to marine mammals

3 Cetaceans and anthropogenic threats Threats include Ship strikes Fishery bycatch Naval activities Anthropogenic sound Cetaceans protected by US laws MMPA ESA

4 SWFSC West Coast Shipboard Surveys Cetacean surveys, summer & fall 1991, 1993, 1996, 2001, & Systematic line-transect methods were used on all surveys. U.S. West Coast wide snapshot Completed transect lines

5 Cetacean distributions are dynamic Blue whale Balaenoptera musculus

6 Project evolution present: Systematic marine mammal surveys Data provide broad-scale population estimates Low resolution (spatial and temporal) : Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS) Modeled cetacean densities at high spatial resolution Input: remotely sensed and in situ environmental data Can estimate risks and minimize adverse impacts (e.g., ship strikes, Naval exercises) Low resolution (temporal) ongoing: Improve temporal resolution Nowcasts based on new SST products Forecasts based on ocean circulation models

7 Technical Approach Marine Mammal Survey Data Habitat Data Statistical Models of Marine Mammal Density Density = n s L 2 w Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) Encounter Rate (n/l): ln(n) = offset(l) + f(sst) + f(depth)... Group Size (s): ln(s) = f(sst) + f(depth) +...

8 Sample fin whale densities Key predictor variables Depth, Slope, SST o Bal.phy RS Model Refit to o Density (Ani/km 2 ) 35 o 30 o 45 o Avg91-05 Ave o o Obs. Seg. Density < 1 < 5 < o W130 o W125 o W120 o W130 o W125 o W120 o W130 o W125 o W120 o Created: 08/28/08 15:52:29

9 Characterizing uncertainty Dall s porpoise (Phocoenoides dalli)

10 Spatial Decision Support System: Web Example Barlow et al. 2009, NOAA Tech Memo NMFS-SWFSC-444

11 Expansion and Enhancement of the SDSS El Niño La Niña Challenge: Marine mammals are highly mobile; distributions change on seasonal, interannual and decadal time scales

12 Expansion and Enhancement of the SDSS El Niño expansion Tropical species La Niña expansion Temperate species Goal: Implement nowcast and forecast capability into the SDSS to facilitate temporal predictions

13 Integrate new climate products into predictive models GHRSST: Blended SST Developed by Remote Sensing Systems, Santa Rosa, CA High-resolution infrared data Microwave (data for cloudy areas) Optimal interpolation Pixel-by-pixel error characterization ROMS = Regional Ocean Modeling System Developed for the NASA-funded FAST Project (Chavez, Chai, Chao, Barber and Foley) Run by Yi Chao's group at JPL Uses forecast surface fluxes (NCEP) Monthly mean products with 1-9 month lead time NOWCASTS FORECASTS

14 Validation Apply species-specific predictive habitat models to environmental conditions for Use survey data to assess predictive performance. Fin whale Balaenoptera physalus Completed transect lines 2008

15 NOWCASTS (using GHRSST blended SST )

16 NOWCAST Fin whale density for entire survey (July-Nov 2008) Climatology Daily forecast

17 NOWCAST Dall s porpoise density for entire survey (July-Nov 2008) Climatology Daily forecast

18 NOWCAST Striped dolphin density for entire survey (July-Nov 2008) Climatology Daily forecast

19 FORECAST Striped dolphin density ROMS: July 2008 predictions for Oct/Nov 2008

20 FORECAST Fin whale density ROMS: July 2008 predictions for Oct/Nov 2008

21 FORECAST Dall s porpoise density ROMS: July 2008 predictions for Oct/Nov 2008

22 Conclusions Climate products have improved marine mammal distribution models GHRSST (Blended Satellite SST): provides NOWCAST predictions without cloud limitations ROMS SST fields: preliminary FORECAST models look promising on 1-5 month time scales Other high resolution (1-3 day, <5km) climate products available for 1991-present? Improved management tool for reducing adverse impacts of human activities on marine mammals May also shed light on potential effects of climate change on marine mammals

23 Acknowledgements Marine mammal observers, oceanographers, chief scientists, cruise leaders, officers and crew of surveys Lisa Ballance, Paul Fiedler, Jessica Redfern (NOAA Fisheries, Southwest Fisheries Science Center) Yi Chao (JPL) Ben Best, Andy Read, Pat Halpin (SERDP Team at Duke University) Funding provided by SERDP, NASA, and NOAA/SWFSC