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1 Assessment of multiple daily precipitation statistics in ERA-Interim driven Med-CORDEX and EURO-CORDEX experiments against high resolution observations Submitted to Climate Dynamics Med-CORDEX special issue A. Fantini 1,2, F. Raffaele 1, C. Torma 1, S. Bacer 3, E. Coppola 1, F. Giorgi 1, B. Ahrens 4, C. Dubois 5, E. Sanchez 6, M. Verdecchia Abdus Salam ICTP, Trieste, Italy 2 - University of Trieste, Italy 3 - Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz, Germany 4 - Goethe-Universitaet Frankfurt a.m., Frankfurt/Main, Germany 5 - Météo-France and Mercator Océan, France, 6 - Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha, Toledo, Spain 7 - CETEMPS and University of L Aquila, Italy
2 DATASETS AND SETUP Ø 9 ERA-Interim driven, double nested Med- and EURO-CORDEX Regional Climate Models Ø 3 common analysis grids at 0.11, 0.44, 1.50 degrees resolution Ø Ø HR observation datasets over 9 different European regions Precipitation undercatch correction with UDEL dataset (Matsuura and Willmott 2010, UDEL V3.01) when applicable
3 Dataset Institution Region Period ~Res Reference EURO4M-APGD + MeteoSwiss Alps km Isotta et al. (2013) Spain02 + Santander Meteorology Group Spain deg Herrera et al. (2010) SAFRAN Meteo-France France km Vidal et al. (2010) UK gridded UK Met Office United dataset o+ Kingdom deg Perry et al. (2009) KLIMAGRID o METNO Norway km Mohr (2009) PTHBV o SMHI Sweden and part of Finland CARPATCLIM + Hungarian Met Service km Johansson (2002) Carpathians deg Szalai et al. (2013) REGNIE o+ DWD Germany km Rauthe et al. (2013) CETEMPS gridded dataset + CETEMPS, University of L'Aquila o = covered by EURO-CORDEX only Italy deg Not yet released + = undercatch-corrected with UDEL data
4 Regional Climate 0.11 and 0.44 deg resolution Model CCLM HIRHAM5 INERIS-WRF331F RACMO22E RCA4 ALADIN5.2 RegCM4.4 CCLM PROMES CLMcom DMI IPSL KNMI SMHI CNRM ICTP GUF UCLM Institution EURO-CORDEX Med-CORDEX Analysis period: ; (UK); (Italy)
5 Statistical indices used Mean Climate Index RMSE, mean, bias TAYLOR PDF, KL Description Standard statistics. Taylor diagrams: spatial correlation, std.dev. and centered RMSE. Symmetrized Kullback-Leibler divergence for PDFs *. (>1mm / day) SDII * Mean daily precipitation intensity. (mm / day) Extremes DDF * Mean frequency of dry days. (%) CDD95 * 95th percentile of dry spell length. Replaces CDD. ( No. days / year) Psum>R95 obs * Total precipitation above the reference 95th percentile of observed daily precipitation. Replaces R95p. (mm / year) * = daily precipitation indices
6 Example for mean precipitation (SON) ERA-Interim 0.44 ensemble 0.11 ensemble OBS MODELS
7 OBS MODELS Example for mean precipitation (SON) ERA-Interim 0.44 ensemble 0.11 ensemble
8 Results for mean precipitation Taylor plots (0.11deg)
9 Results for mean precipitation Taylor plots (0.44deg)
10 Results for mean precipitation Taylor plots (1.50deg)
11 Results for daily PDFs
12 Results for daily PDFs
13 Results for daily precipitation indices Selected maps: SDII OBS ERA-Interim RCM-ALL RCM-MED RCM-EURO 0.11 deg 0.44 deg 1.50 deg
14 Results for daily precipitation indices Selected maps: SDII OBS ERA-Interim RCM-ALL RCM-MED RCM-EURO 0.11 deg 0.44 deg 1.50 deg
15 Results for daily precipitation indices Selected maps: Psum>R95obs OBS ERA-Interim RCM-EURO 0.11 deg 0.44 deg 1.50 deg
16 Results for daily precipitation indices Selected maps: Psum>R95obs OBS ERA-Interim RCM-EURO 0.11 deg 0.44 deg 1.50 deg
17 Results for daily precipitation indices Taylor plots
18 Results for daily precipitation indices DDF
19 CONCLUSIONS The model ensembles show remarkable performance in simulating the spatial patterns and annual cycle of all metrics analyzed, with a substantial improvement going from the low resolution of the ERA-interim data to the medium resolution RCM44ensemble and the high resolution RCM11. This conclusion is retained even when the data are upscaled to the lower resolution (confirms Torma et al., 2015) The performance of the models appears improved compared to previous generation RCMs EURO-CORDEX and Med-CORDEX models have similar performance; both ensembles are of sufficient quality to be applied in climate projections Some metrics (e.g. DDF and CCD95 in some regions) still indicate deficiencies in the model's description of precipitation processes mainly due to the drizzle phenomenon that is not solved only by increasing resolution, but there are indications that this problem might be ameliorated which cloud and convection processes are explicitly described. Need to develop a homogeneous and internally consistent high resolution, quality checked, observation dataset for the entire European territory which can be used for future development of very high resolution, European-wide models.
20 Paper reference: Fantini A., Raffaele F., Torma C., Bacer S., Coppola E., Giorgi F., Ahrens B., Dubois C., Sanchez E., Verdecchia M. Assessment of multiple daily precipitation statistics in ERA-Interim driven Med-CORDEX and EURO-CORDEX experiments against high resolution observations. Submitted to Climate Dynamics, 2016
21 Results for mean precipitation (DJF) ERA-Interim 0.44 ensemble 0.11 ensemble OBS MODELS
22 Results for mean precipitation (JJA) ERA-Interim 0.44 ensemble 0.11 ensemble OBS MODELS
23 Results for mean precipitation Annual cycle
24 Results for daily PDFs Kullback-Leibler divergence
25 Results for daily PDFs Kullback-Leibler divergence
26 Results for daily PDFs Kullback-Leibler divergence
27 Results for daily precipitation indices Selected maps: SDII
28 Results for daily precipitation indices Selected maps: Psum>R95obs
29 Results for daily precipitation indices Selected maps: DDF
30 Results for daily precipitation indices SDII
31 Results for daily precipitation indices Psum > R95 obs
32 Model by model bias DJF
33 Model by model bias MAM
34 Model by model bias JJA
35 Model by model bias SON
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