SEASONAL FORECASTING USING WEATHER LORE. Howard Oliver

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2 SEASONAL FORECASTING USING WEATHER LORE Howard Oliver

3 Matthew 16, 2-3. (King James,1611)

4 Solar Halo:- Rain on the way

5 SEASONAL FORECASTING CONDITIONS DURING ONE SEASON INDICATE THE CONDITIONS DURING A FOLLOWING SEASON. Look for: Continuity or contrast between seasons. Long-term averaging out of weather types. One weather type (wet, dry, hot, cold, windy) in one season indicating a different weather type in a subsequent season.

6 THEOPHRASTUS, 300BC Google images

7 CONTRAST BETWEEN SEASONS - RAINFALL If there is much rain in the Winter, the Spring is generally dry. If the winter is dry the spring is rainy.

8 TEMPERATURE If the late Autumn is unusually bright the Spring is cold as a general rule. If Winter sets in early it closes early and the Spring is fair.

9 PRE-SEASON INDICATOR OF SUBSEQUENT SEASON When the scarlet oaks are very full of berries they generally indicate a severe Winter.

10 Pliny, 1 st cent AD (Natural History of the World) A fair and dry autumn brings in always a windy winter.

11 Francis Bacon ( ) Wikipedia image

12 SEASONAL PRECURSORS Generally a moist and cool summer portends a hard winter. A warm open winter portends a hot dry summer.

13 A COMPLEX MODEL? A hot and dry summer and autumn, especially if the heat and drought extend far into September, portend an open beginning of winter, and cold to succeed towards the latter part of winter and the beginning of spring.

14 WIND AND RAIN A serene Autumn denotes a windy winter; A windy winter, a rainy spring; A rainy spring, a serene summer; A serene summer, a windy autumn; So that the air on a balance is seldom a debtor to itself.

15 John Pointer, 1723 Summary of current knowledge including prognostications and causes of the Aurora

17 XX1V SPRING AND SUMMER If the last eighteen days of February and ten days of March be for the most part rainy, then the Spring and Summer quarters are likely to be so too.

18 XXV WINTER If the latter end of October and beginning of November be for the most part warm and rainy, then January and February are likely to be frosty and cold, except after a very dry Summer

19 Version by Kimble and Webb, 1946

20 John Mills FRS, 1773

22 Joseph Taylor, 1813

23 Included use of published data sets for England and Ireland to derive odds for various seasonal conditions as indicated by the previous season. Meteorological observations and explanations of some possible scientific principles behind the Shepherd of Banbury s Rules

24 Orlando Whistlecraft, 1840 A long course of East wind in Autumn will be succeeded by a severe winter, and the same wind in Spring generally brings a dry summer.

27 Forecasting Winter Conditions Some Traditional Sayings (As November 21 st, so is the winter)

28 WINTER WEATHER INDICATORS Warm October, cold February. As the weather in October, so in March. October and November cold indicate January and February will be mild and dry. At Christmas meadows green, at Easter covered with frost.

29 NATURAL EVENTS If there s ice in November that will bear a duck, there ll be nothing after but sludge and muck. If ducks do slide at Hallontide At Christmas they will swim. If ducks do swim at Hallontide At Christmas they will slide.

30 MORE NATURAL EVENTS If in the fall of the leaves in October, many of them wither on the boughs it betokens a frosty winter and much snow. When blackbirds sing before Christmas she will cry before Candlemas [2nd Feb.].

31 GENERAL SEASONAL WEATHER LORE PRINCIPLE As a general rule, long term observations and experience may suggest that: A main weather type A in one season (using various indicators) tends to be followed by a main weather type A or B during the next season.

32 TRYING TO UNDERSTAND Continuity or change in longterm driving conditions of weather systems which could, for example, be due to Jet Stream patterns controlled by ocean temperatures, largescale air pressure anomalies etc.

34 LONG RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS E.B. GARRIOTT US WEATHER BUREAU,1904 Advances in the period and accuracy of weather forecasts depend on a more exact study and understanding of atmospheric pressure over great areas, and a determination of the influences that are responsible for normal and abnormal distributions of air pressure over the earth s surface.

35 E. B. Garriott, Meteorologists are not antagonistic to honest, well-directed efforts to solve the problem of long-range forecasting. They encourage all work in this field and condemn only those who, for notoriety or profit, or through misdirected zeal and unwarranted assumptions, bring the science of meteorology into disrepute.

37 SOME OF THE 28 SIGNS OF RAIN Edward Jenner ( ) Illustrated with Google images

38 Low barometer, Spiders about

39 Lunar halo Whole rainbows

40 Closing pimpernells, Crying peacocks

41 Busy flies, Low-flying swallows

42 Cats wipe their jaws Fish rise to catch flies

43 Numerous bright glow-worms Toads out at dusk

44 Frogs lose yellow crest Blackbirds have shrill song

45 Dogs eat grass Rooks glide high

46 T will surely rain, I see with sorrow, Our jaunt must be put off tomorrow!

48 1677 LAW Rainmakers and Weather Seers will be burned at the stake (Repealed in 1959!) [Weather, Constantino, 2009]

CLIMATE. UNIT TWO March 2019

CLIMATE. UNIT TWO March 2019 CLIMATE UNIT TWO March 2019 OUTCOME 9.2.1Demonstrate an understanding of the basic features of Canada s landscape and climate. identify and locate major climatic regions of Canada explain the characteristics