reclip:century - inside: scenario results and uncertainty ranges

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1 reclip:century - inside: scenario results and uncertainty ranges Wolfgang Loibl, AIT and the reclip:century team Wien, 21. September 2011 Funded by: ( Nr. A760437)

2 Content Project objective, project team reclip:century ensemble: models, data, GHG-scenarios Some results: scenario comparison Data warehouse: data exploration and download Outlook

capacity The project was only possible as teamwork (12-15 members): AIT (Wolfgang

3 Project Partners A large set of simulation runs with additional tests requires: experienced modellers sufficient data processing resources sufficient data storage capacity The project was only possible as teamwork (12-15 members): AIT (Wolfgang Loibl) Boku-Met (Herbert Formayer) Wegener Center (Heimo Truhetz, Andreas Gobiet) ZAMG (Wolfgang Schöner)

4 Project - objective reclip:century: research for climate protection: century climate simulations 1. Ensemble of high resolution (10x10km) regional climate simulations tailored for Austria and the Greater Alpine Region with 2. Validation and uncertainty assessment 3. Development of a data warehouse for data exploration and download

5 Content Project objective, project team reclip:century ensemble: models, data, GHG-scenarios Some results: scenario comparison Data warehouse: results exploration and data download Outlook

Simulation framework - overview GCM - forcing (input data in 6h intervals): ECHAM5: 180km resolution HadCM3: 250km resolution ERA40: 120km resolution (hindcast runs) Regional models (storage of 1h

6 Simulation framework - overview GCM - forcing (input data in 6h intervals): ECHAM5: 180km resolution HadCM3: 250km resolution ERA40: 120km resolution (hindcast runs) Regional models (storage of 1h data): COSMO CLM (CCLM) 2 nestig steps 2 Domains: D1: grid spacing 50 km (red box), D2: 10 km (green box) Time steps: D1: 360 sec, D2: 90 sec MM5 2 nesting steps 2 Domains: D1:grid spacing 30 km (blue box), D2: 10 km (green box) Time steps: D1: 30 sec, D2: 10 sec Greeenhouse gas scenarios: IPCC A1B & B1

7 reclip:century ensemble (Phase 1) GCM RCM GHG-scenario combinations finally 9 model runs: 2 hindcast runs 3 control runs 4 scenario runs Ensembles Phase 1 Regionalmodell COSMO CLM Antriebsdaten hindcast control run scenario runs ERA40 Messdaten A1B B1 ECHAM HADCM Regionalmodell MM5 Antriebsdaten hindcast control run scenario runs ERA40 Messdaten A1B B1 ECHAM

8 Content Project objective, project team reclip:century ensemble: models, data, GHG-scenarios Some results: scenario comparison Data warehouse: results exploration and data download Outlook

9 Scenario comparison temperature the next slides show: Comparison hindcast versus control run annual mean temperature difference Climate change signals Seasonal and annual mean temperature difference Year: 2021/ /2000 ECHAM5/CCLM/A1B HadCM3/CCLM/A1B ECHAM5/CCLM/B1 Summer: 2021/ /2000 ECHAM5/CCLM/A1B HadCM3/CCLM/A1B ECHAM5/CCLM/B1

10 Comparison hind cast (ERA40) - versus current climate control runs (ECHAM5 and HadCM3) Differences in Austria: ECHAM5 range: 0-0,2 K cooler than ERA40 HadCM3 range: 0,2-0,3 K warmer than ERA40 conclusion: high coincidence between reality and GHG-based simulations

11 Highest temperature increase estimated till 2050 by HADCM3/CCLM/A1B scenario: 2,2 2,4 K in easter Austria Similar change ( by the ECHAM5-driven) A1B and B1 scenarios 1,5-1,6 K (A1B) versus 1,3-1,4 K (B1)

12 ECHAM5- and HadCM3-driven scenarios show similar increase in winter Lowest increase of the B1 scenario in winter

13 Most contribution of accelerated temperature increase estimated by HADCM3/CCLM/A1B comes from summer (2,4-2,6 K) Little difference between ECHAM5-driven A1B and B1 scenarios (1,2-1,5 K) (B1 shows even higher increase than A1B!)

14 Seasonal temperature-differences: 30 yr trends 1971/2000 to 2031/2060: ECHAM5/ACCLM/A1B, ECHAM5/CCLM/B1, HadCM3/CCLM/A1B ECHAM5/CCLM/A1B : Highest increase in fall: +2,4 K, In winter +2,3 K ECHAM5/CCLM/B1: Highest increase in fall and summer: +1,8 K, Less increase in winter and spring: around +1K HadCM3/CCLM/A1B: Highest increase in summer:+2,6 K, Increase in fall +2,5 K, in winter +2,1 K

15 Scenario comparison precipitation the next slides show Comparison hindcast versus control run annual precipitation totals - difference Climate change signals Seasonal and annual precipitation differences (%, absolute) Year: 2021/ /2000 ECHAM5/CCLM/A1B HadCM3/CCLM/A1B ECHAM5/CCLM/B1 Summer: 2021/ /2000 ECHAM5/CCLM/A1B HadCM3/CCLM/A1B ECHAM5/CCLM/B1

Comparison: hind cast (ERA40) - versus current climate

ECHAM5 range: -50mm (South) to +50 (+100mm Alps) HadCM3

coincidence between reality and GHG-based simulations,

16 Comparison: hind cast (ERA40) - versus current climate control runs (ECHAM5 and HadCM3) Differences in Austria: ECHAM5 range: -50mm (South) to +50 (+100mm Alps) HadCM3 range: -50mm to -100 (-150mm Alps) conclusion: rather high coincidence between reality and GHG-based simulations, some differences in precipitation patterns north-south

17 Little change till 2050 in annual totals Little differences between scenarios: ECHAM5 A1B more wet HadCM3 A1B more dry ECHAM5 B1 even dryer (in the East and the South)

18 B1 Winter precipitation: Differences between scenarios ECHAM5 A1B: north wetter, south dryer HadCM3 A1B: northeast wetter, southwest dryer ECHAM5 B1: generally dryer

19 B1 Summer precipitation: Some differences between scenarios: ECHAM5 A1B and B1 similar HadCM3 A1B dryer

20 Seasonal precipitation-differences: 30yr trends 1971/2000 to 2031/2060 ECHAM5/ACCLM/A1B, ECHAM5/CCLM/B1, HadCM3/CCLM/A1B ECHAM5/CCLM/A1B : Little decline (fall.& summer ) (2031/2060: distinct increase in winter & spring (~+10%) ECHAM5/CCLM/B1: Little decline in summer, Little increase infall and winter (~+ 5 %) HadCM3/CCLM/A1B: Distinct decline in summer (till -15%) Increase in fall and winter (+5-10%)

21 CC exploration: 30year moving seasonal averages Change over time: scenario differences between seasons higher Change between regions: regional trends does not always match overall trend Greater Alpine Region north-eastern Austria Temp. Prec. (HadCM3/CCLM/A1B - Results).

22 Szenariovergleich 1971/2000 vs. 2021/2050: saisonale Temperaturentwicklung Beispiel Ost-Österreich Einheitlicher Trendbei allen Szenarien, Unterschiede zwischen den Saisonen!!

23 Szenariovergleich 1971/2000 vs. 2021/2050: saisonale Niederschlagsentwicklung Beispiel Ost-Österreich Große Trend-Schwankungen zwischen den Szenarien!!

24 Content Project objective, project team reclip:century ensemble: models, data, GHG-scenarios Some results: scenario comparison Data warehouse: results exploration and data download Outlook

25 Reclip:century data warehouse Exploration and download of yearly, monthly, daily data Link:

Data exploration Select item: Temperature or precipitation, scenario (GCM/RCM/GHG) Data to be explored: Annual means and annual sums temperature, total precipitation: all periods Monthly means and

26 Data exploration Select item: Temperature or precipitation, scenario (GCM/RCM/GHG) Data to be explored: Annual means and annual sums temperature, total precipitation: all periods Monthly means and monthly sums temperature, total precipitation:: all periods Daily means and sums temperature, total precipitation:: all periods Extreme events annual numbers frost days, summer days, RR20-days (all periods)

27 Data exploration Static image: Select time. year, month, day Animation: Select start time: first frame Select end time: last frame

(change thresholds) zoom and pan create screen shots, drape on google earth

28 Data exploration Further functions: select transparency (show background map) modify default colour scale (click on scale) modify visible range (change thresholds) zoom and pan create screen shots, drape on google earth retrieve single values (click into map) draw section profiles (click on polyline symbol)

29 Data warehouse Download of yearly, monthly, daily data as netcdf- files Same as for data exploration except daily data: 1991/2000, 2041/2050. (2 decades for download))

30 Outlook reclip:century 2: simulations will be extended: (avaiable by end of 2011) Scenario ECHAM5/CCLM/A2 will be added Data warehouse: Integration of new data Eventually: extending exploration functionality depending on user requests Finally: to be transferred to the ACDC (Austrian Climate Data Centre) Further projects: additional scenarios with new GHG-assumptions higher resolution Expected: intensive use of data download applied for climate impact assessment at regional scale

Thank you for your attention! and try out: http://reclip.ait.ac.

31 Thank you for your attention! and try out: Contact:

32 Scenario comparison: Temperature Example: annual means: versus ECHAM5/CCLM/A1B and HadCM3/CCLM/A1B

33 30year moving seasonal temperature averages Change over time: seasonal differences between scenarios even higher ECHAM5/CCLM/A1B : Highest increase in fall: +2,4 K, In winter +2,3 K ECHAM5/CCLM/B1: Less increase: in winter and spring around +1K HadCM3/CCLM/A1B: Highest increase in summer +2,6 K, fall +2,5K (in winter +2,1 K) 33

34 30year moving seasonal precipitation averages Change over time: oscillation of seasonal change trends over time ECHAM5/CCLM/A1B : Little decline (fall.& summer ) (2031/2060: distinct increase in winter & spring (~+10%) ECHAM5/CCLM/B1: Little decline in summer, Little increase infall and winter (~+ 5 %) HadCM3/CCLM/A1B: Distinct decline in summer (till -15%) Increase in fall and winter (+5-10%)

35 Seasonal trends by regions based on 3(2) scenarios Temperatur e 1971/ /2050 Increase in C (2x A1B, B1) Winter 1,6 Precipitation 1971/ /2050 Change in % (2x A1B) 2,2 +11% ,8 +10% 1,8 +13% 1,7 +13% 1,8 +8% +7% 1,6 =/+13% Frühling 1,1 1 + ~- 1,2 1,2 1,2 <-/= 1,2 <-/-> 1,2 <-/-> -10/+10% -13%/= <-/= <-/=

36 Seasonal trends by regions based on 3(2) scenarios Temperatur e 1971/ /50 Increase in C (2x A1B, B1) 2,3/0,6 Sommer +++ 2,3/1-2,3/1,2 2,3/1 2,5/1,3 2,5/1,1 2,5/1,1-10%/<- Precipitation 1971/ /50 Change in % (2x A1B) <- <- <- -8%/<- -9%/<- <- Herbst 2,1 2,3/1, ,9 1,9 1,9 1,8 =/<- 2 =/-15% <- = <-/-8% =/-12% <-

Summer precipitation: The distinct relative

37 Summer precipitation: The distinct relative change (in %) and differences between scenarios occur as small change and similar results between scenarios when absolute numbers are compared! Change in Austria: in the East: -50mm to+50mm In the West -100mm to -50mm

ACRP. ACRP Final report. Final Report Appendix containing all figures and maps. 1 Project Data. Program control: Climate and Energy Fund

ACRP. ACRP Final report. Final Report Appendix containing all figures and maps. 1 Project Data. Program control: Climate and Energy Fund ACRP Final Report Appendix containing all figures and maps Program control: Climate and Energy Fund Program management: Kommunalkredit Public Consulting GmbH (KPC) 1 Project Data Short title reclip:century