Advances in Meteorology, Climatology and Atmospheric Physics

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1 Advances in Meteorology, Climatology and Atmospheric Physics

2 Springer Atmospheric Sciences For further volumes:

3 Costas G. Helmis l Editors Panagiotis T. Nastos Advances in Meteorology, Climatology and Atmospheric Physics

4 Editors Costas G. Helmis Department of Physics University of Athens University Campus Athens Greece Panagiotis T. Nastos Department of Physics University of Athens University Campus Athens Greece ISBN ISBN (ebook) DOI / Springer Heidelberg New York Dordrecht London Library of Congress Control Number: # Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2012 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. Exempted from this legal reservation are brief excerpts in connection with reviews or scholarly analysis or material supplied specifically for the purpose of being entered and executed on a computer system, for exclusive use by the purchaser of the work. Duplication of this publication or parts thereof is permitted only under the provisions of the Copyright Law of the Publisher s location, in its current version, and permission for use must always be obtained from Springer. Permissions for use may be obtained through RightsLink at the Copyright Clearance Center. Violations are liable to prosecution under the respective Copyright Law. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. While the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication, neither the authors nor the editors nor the publisher can accept any legal responsibility for any errors or omissions that may be made. The publisher makes no warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein. Printed on acid-free paper Springer is part of Springer Science+Business Media (

5 Regional Climate Models Future Simulations of Mean Air Temperature in Greece J. Kapsomenakis, P.T. Nastos, K. Douvis, C.M. Philandras, G. Tselioudis, and C.S. Zerefos Abstract The future projections of mean air temperature in Greece for the near future and distant future relative to the reference period are studied, analyzing the simulations from 12 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) within the ENSEMBLES European project. The simulations of the future climate were carried out on annual and seasonal basis under SRES A1B. The results showed that the mean annual air temperature in Greece will present an increase of 1.5 C and 3.2 C, for the periods and respectively, based on the average of the 12 climatic simulations. This increase is projected to be larger during summer and smaller during winter. Additionally, the projected warming varies among the different climatic simulations concerning the continental regions of the country especially during summer. 1 Introduction The impact of the anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on air temperature concerns not only the mean warming itself, but also the changes in temperature variability. A number of studies have pointed out the significant effects of extreme temperature on human health and human life (Kalkstein 1993; McGregor 2005; Nastos and Matzarakis 2011), on energy consumption (Giannakopoulos et al. 2009), tourism and bioclimatic comfort of human beings (Subak et al. 2000; Nastos and Matzarakis 2008; Matzarakis and Nastos 2011). Besides, although there is a J. Kapsomenakis (*) K. Douvis C.M. Philandras G. Tselioudis C.S. Zerefos Research Centre for Atmospheric Physics and Climatology, Academy of Athens, Omirou 24, Athens GR-10672, Greece johnkaps@geol.uoa.gr P.T. Nastos Laboratory of Climatology and Atmospheric Environment, University of Athens, Panepistimiopolis, Athens GR-15784, Greece C.G. Helmis and P.T. Nastos (eds.), Advances in Meteorology, Climatology and Atmospheric Physics, Springer Atmospheric Sciences, DOI / _70, # Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

6 494 J. Kapsomenakis et al. quite clear evidence for abrupt climate changes, the mechanisms driving these changes are less clear and they are still the subject of very active research (Cracknell and Varotsos 2007). The Mediterranean region is characterized by large temporal and spatial climate variability, due to its geographical position. The influence of mesoscale features result to large climate gradients in a region which would otherwise have a more homogeneous climate (Lionello et al. 2008). Thus, the study of climate on a more local scale is considered very important. Regional climate models (RCMs) have been developed for the application of dynamical downscaling methods to enhance the regional information provided by (GCMs) or by the large scale reanalysis fields (NCEP/ERA-40) (Dickinson et al. 1989; Giorgi et al. 1990). RCMs represent in more detail surface features, such as complex mountain topographies and coastlines as well as small islands and peninsulas, which in a global model could not even appear. This study aims to present the future projections of mean air temperature in Greece for the near future and distant future relative to the reference period , using the simulations from 12 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) within the ENSEMBLES European project. 2 Data and Methodology The temperature datasets of a total of 12 simulations from Regional Climate Models (RCM) carried out by the European program ENSEMBLES ( ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/) were used in this study. More specifically, the results of the following simulations were analyzed: RCA3 (HadCM3Q), RM5.1 (ARPEGE), HIRHAM5 (ARPEGE), HIRHAM5 (ECHAM5), HIRHAM5 (BCM), CLM (Hadcm3Q0), RegCM3 (ECHAM5), RACMO2 (ECHAM5), REMO (ECHAM5), RCA (BCM), RCA (ECHAM5), RCA (HadCM3Q3); the name of the General Circulation Model (GCM), from which data were used as input in the simulation process for each RCM, appear in brackets, while the name of RCM used for the mentioned simulations appear in front of the bracket. The spatial resolution of the 12 RCMs is 0.22 longitude 0.22 latitude. The assessment of the climatic conditions within the twenty-first century was based on SRES A1B (Nakićenović et al. 2000). 3 Results Concerning the future projections of the RCMs for Greece the ensemble mean change of the 12 RCMs for the mean annual air temperature between the near future period ( ) and the control period ( ) for the Greek domain ranges from 1.6 to 1.7 C in the continental country, C in the Ionian Sea to 1.5 C in the north Aegean Sea and C in the South Aegean Sea (Fig. 1).

7 Regional Climate Models Future Simulations of Mean Air Temperature 495 Mean winter air temperature change ( ) IMSD for winter air temperature change ( ) Mean spring air temperature change ( ) IMSD for spring air temperature change ( ) Mean summer air temperature change ( ) IMSD for summer air temperature change ( ) Mean autumn air temperature change ( ) IMSD for autumn air temperature change ( ) Mean annual air temperature change ( ) IMSD for annual air temperature change ( ) Fig. 1 Spatial distribution of ensemble mean seasonal and annual air temperature change (left graphs) and inter model standard deviation (IMSD) (right graphs) for the near future

8 496 J. Kapsomenakis et al. The Inter Model Standard Deviation (IMSD) is about 0.4 C over the majority of the country, depicting higher values (~0.5 C) over north Aegean Sea in contrast to central Aegean sub regions (~0.2 C). Taking into account the results for the distant future ( ), the projected change in air temperature ranges from C over land and the north Aegean to C over the rest maritime sub regions (Fig. 2). The IMSD is about 1.0 C over land, while higher values are evident over the north Aegean (1.2 C) and lower values (~0.7 C) over the south Aegean and Ionian Sea sub regions. During winter and for the near future, the changes of air temperature range from 1.0 C to 1.4 C all over the country, with the highest values in the continental Greece and northern Aegean Sea. The IMSD ranges from C over land to C over the northern Aegean Sea and 0.25 C over the south Aegean and Ionian Sea. The simulations for the distant future show increases of C over the continental country and C over western regions, Peloponnese, Crete and Aegean/Ionian Sea. The IMSD presents higher values C over central continental Greece and north Aegean compared to C for the rest of the country. The projected changes of air temperature for spring in the near future are higher (1.4 C) in north Aegean Sea and eastern continental parts than the rest of the country ( C). The IMSD appears to be higher over northern Aegean Sea (0.6 C) and continental regions (0.4 C) than central Aegean Sea (0.25 C) and Ionian Sea (0.35 C). Taking into account the distant future, the simulated changes range from 2.8 C at the west sub regions to 3.2 C at the eastern regions of continental Greece. The north Aegean Sea appears to be warmer (3.0 C) than the rest maritime areas ( C). The simulations of the applied models show higher IMSD values over the north Aegean Sea ( C) and lower values over land (0.8 C) and the south Aegean Sea (0.5 C). During summer in the near future, the air temperature changes appear to be higher in continental ( C) than in the maritime sub-regions (from 1.4 Cin the south to 1.8 C in the north Aegean Sea while the Ionian Sea seems to be slightly cooler with values from 1.4 C to 1.5 C). The IMSD increases over land and north Aegean Sea ( C) against C over sea. Concerning the distant future, the projected changes range from C over land to C over sea. The IMSD depicts high values ( C) over continental and north Aegean sub regions in contrast to C over south Aegean and Ionian Seas. During autumn, in the near future, the air temperature changes range from 1.6 C to 1.7 C over continental areas and northern Aegean Sea, while the south Aegean and Ionian Seas appear to be slightly cooler ( C). The IMSD appears to vary from 0.3 C to 0.5 C with the lower values over central/south Aegean Sea. Larger increases are projected in the distant future; namely C over land, while the Ionian Sea/north Aegean Sea and east coasts of the Aegean Sea and islands appear to be warmer (3.2 C) than the south (3.0 C). The IMSD for the projected change ranges from C over land against C over sea.

9 Regional Climate Models Future Simulations of Mean Air Temperature 497 Mean winter air temperature change ( ) IMSD for winter air temperature change ( ) Mean spring air temperature change ( ) IMSD for spring air temperature change ( ) Mean summer air temperature change ( ) IMSD for summer air temperature change ( ) Mean autumn air temperature change ( ) IMSD for autumn air temperature change ( ) Mean annual air temperature change ( ) IMSD for annual air temperature change ( ) Fig. 2 Spatial distribution of ensemble mean seasonal and annual air temperature change (left graphs) and inter model standard deviation (IMSD)(right graphs) for the distant future

10 498 J. Kapsomenakis et al. The above findings are in agreement with Zanis et al. (2009), who found that the mean change of the nine RCMs (PRUDENCE project) for the mean air temperature between the future period (under SRES A2) and the control period for the Greek domain is 3.4 C for winter and 4.5 C for summer with the changes being larger in continental than in the marine sub-regions. 4 Conclusions Results showed that the ensemble mean change of the 12 RCMs (SRES A1B, ENSEMBLE project) for the mean air temperature, between the near future ( )/distant future ( ) and the control period ( ) for the Greek domain presents higher values in the continental Greece and northern Aegean Sea than in the maritime sub-regions. The simulations indicate that the summer air temperature changes in the distant future range from C over land to C over sea. Furthermore, the inter model standard deviation in the future simulations is generally larger in the continental sub-regions and northern Aegean Sea than in maritime sub-regions of Greece. Further research is needed concerning the assessment of the various factors underlying the air temperature variability derived from the different climatic simulations by the RCMs. References Cracknell AP, Varotsos CA (2007) The IPCC fourth assessment report and the fiftieth anniversary of Sputnik. Environ Sci Pollut Res 14: Dickinson R, Errico R, Giorgi F, Bates G (1989) A regional climate model for the western United States. Clim Change 15: doi: /bf Giannakopoulos C, Hadjinicolaou P, Zerefos C, Demosthenous D (2009) Changing energy requirements in the Mediterranean under changing climatic conditions. Energies 2(4): doi: /en Giorgi F, Marinucci MR, Visconti G (1990) Use of a limited-area model nested in a general circulation model for regional climate simulations over Europe. J Geophys Res 95(D11): doi: /jd095id11p18413 Kalkstein LS (1993) Health and climate change. Direct impacts in cities. Lancet 342: Lionello P, Planton S, Rodo X (2008) Preface: trends and climate change in the Mediterranean region. Global Planet Change 63: doi: /j.gloplacha Matzarakis A, Nastos PT (2011) Human-biometeorological assessment of heat waves in Athens. Theor Appl Climatol 105: doi: /s McGregor GR (2005) Winter North Atlantic Oscillation, temperature and ischaemic heart disease mortality in three English counties. Int J Biometeorol 49: doi: /s Nakićenović N, Alcamo J, Davis G, de Vries B, Fenhann J, Gaffin S, Gregory K, Gr ubler A, Jung TY, Kram T, La Rovere EL, Michaelis L, Mori S, Morita T, Pepper W, Pitcher H, Price L, Raihi K, Roehrl A, Rogner H-H, Sankovski A, Schlesinger M, Shukla P, Smith S, Swart R,

11 Regional Climate Models Future Simulations of Mean Air Temperature 499 van Rooijen S, Victor N, Dadi Z (2000) IPCC special report on emissions scenarios. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge Nastos PT, Matzarakis A (2008) Variability of tropical days over Greece within the second half of the twentieth century. Theor Appl Climatol 93: doi: /s Nastos PT, Matzarakis A (2011) The effect of air temperature and human thermal indices on mortality in Athens. Theor Appl Climatol. doi: /s Subak S, Palutikof JP, Agnew MD, Watson SJ, Benthan CG, Cannell MGR, Hulme M, McNally S, Thornes JE, Waughray D, Woods JC (2000) The impact of the anomalous weather of 1995 on the UK economy. Clim Change 44:1 26 Zanis P, Kapsomenakis I, Philandras C, Douvis K, Nikolakis D, Kanellopoulou E, Zerefos C, Repapis C (2009) Analysis of an ensemble of present day and future regional climate simulations for Greece. Int J Climatol 29(11): doi: /joc.1809