Climate Indices and Indicators for Agriculture

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1 Climate Indices and Indicators for Agriculture ADRIAN TROTMAN CHIEF, APPLIED METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATOLOGY CARIBBEAN INSTITUTE FOR METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY WMO WORKSHOP ON ENHANCING CLIMATE INDICES FOR SECTOR-SPECIFIC APPLICATIONS IN PACIFIC ISLAND REGION Nadi, Fiji, 7-11 December 2015

2 The Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology: MANDATE to assist in improving and developing the Meteorological and Hydrological Services as well as providing the awareness of the benefits of Meteorology and Hydrology for the economic well-being of the CIMH member states. This is achieved through training, research, investigations and the provision of related specialized services and advice.

3 Functions of the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology & Hydrology WMO Regional Training Centre meteorology, hydrology and associated sciences Operate as a centre of research in meteorology, hydrology and associated sciences Regional Climate Data Centre - Data collection, storage, & dissemination Regional Instrument Centre Develop, maintain, repair, and calibrate meteorological & hydrological instruments Regional Centre of Excellence for Satellite Meteorology More recently Caribbean Centre for Climate and Environmental Simulations Advisor to regional governments on matters related to meteorology, climate & hydrology Provide specialized services to industry WMO Regional Climate Centre (Demonstration Phase) a natural extension in function rcc.cimh.edu.bb An arm of the Caribbean Meteorological Organisation (CMO) and an organisation of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) Sixteen Member States

4 Caribbean Meteorological Organization Member States

5 Stephenson et al 2014

6 Extreme rainfall events within the season Well received by water resources managers, but also Ag. applications CIMH is also interested in forecasting the indices The basis for a flood potential outlook. As like the drought alert the use of rainfall being tailored. Wet days can be defined as days with at least 1 mm of rainfall in the tropics anything less rapidly evaporates. Rainfall extremes important for potential flooding.

7 UNEP Aridity Index (AI) Value Climate Class < 0.03 Hyper Arid Arid Semi-Arid Dry sub-humid > 0.65 Humid AI = P/PET Compares the precipitation with the potential evapotranspiration Classes linked with type of natural vegetation Often used to indicate impact of climate change and proneness to desertification

8 Temperature Influences rates DD = (Tmax + Tmin)/2 - Tbase DD = Tmean - Tbase Rate of growth and photosynthesis in relation to temperature P = a + bt + ct 2 The optimum temperature may vary with each stage of development and with the length of time the temperature prevails

9 Temperature dependence of net photosynthesis during the growing season under conditions of natural carbon dioxide availability and light saturation

10 Relationship between duration and temperature of O. nubilalis eggs (taken from W.M.O. No. 687)

11 Preliminary Analyses (AK AJ) Extreme Temperature change over the E.C. Very Hot Days ( Days MaxTemp 35º Celsius) Present Climate Future Climate

12 Other Temperature Effects Plants can be killed or be seriously injured when exposed to relatively low temperatures chilling injury Cold fronts in Belize can often cause injury to banana when temperatures drop below o C Plants can be killed or be seriously injured when exposed to relatively high temperatures Warm nights in particular also associated with flower drop in many species

13 Moisture Along with temperature the most important of factors Relative humidity, rainfall (wash off), water accumulation in crevices, soil moisture Combination with temperature at 100 %, there is a high percentage hatching of eggs within a wide range of temperatures above the base temperature. However, as the humidity drops, temperatures need to be nearer the optimum for high percentage hatching Table Life span in days of L. botrana at 18 oc Relative humidity Males Females

14 Indices or indicators of drought Meteorological/Climatological drought (Standardised Precipitation Index; Deciles) Vegetation Indices (Normalised Difference Vegetation index, Vegetation Health Index) Soil Moisture (soil moisture content, Palmer Drought Severity Index, Crop Moisture Index) PDSI and CMI uitilises rainfall, evapotranspiration and soil available water capacities to form a complicated index based on soil moisture balance Lake levels, river discharge levels, groundwater salinity Please see

15 Tailoring from rainfall to a drought alerting system Supporting Disaster Risk Management Drought alert maps Part persistence, part forecast Short Term Drought Based on SPI 6 month Another forecast related example forecasting the SPI Into an alerting Long Term Drought at end of Wet/Huricane Season based on SPI 12 Month Activity began as a collaboration between CariCOF, CACOF and IRI Also widely used by water resources managers and agriculturists

16 Animals -Thermoneutral (comfort) Zone The range of environmental temperatures over which the heat produced by a `warm-blooded' animal remains fairly constant. the rate of metabolic heat production is unaffected by temperature change within this range

17 Animal Comfort Index Temperature Humidity Indices/Thermal Heat Indices For example Comfort Index THI = (0.81*T) + (RH*(T-14.4)) T - temperature o C RH relative humidity fraction Class THI Mild Stress Moderate Stress Severe Stress 84

18 Chicken: Indices used for livestock: THI broilers =0.85T db +0.15T wb Tao and Xin (2003) THI layer = 0.6T db T wb Zulovich and De Shazer (1990) Ruminants: THI = (1.8 xt db + 32) ([ x RH] x (1.8 x Tdb -26.8)) NRC (1971) THI = (1.8 x T db + 32) (( x RH) x (1.8 x Tdb 26) (2003) Rabbit: Hahn et al. THI =T db 0 C- [( RH) (T db 0 C -14.4)] Maria et al (2001) Pigs: THI= T db [0.55-(0.0055x RH)] x (T db -14.5) (2008) Zumbach et al. Tdb = Dry Bulb temperature ; Twb = Wet Bulb temperature; Tdb = Dew Point temperature Source C. Lallo, UWI

19 Weather/Climate Index Insurance Farmers can purchase coverage based on an index that is correlated weather or climaterelated losses, or status of region such as wind speed, the amount of rain during a certain window of time, (the state of vegetation recorded by a satellite) threshold based on weather station measurement(s). Payouts are then triggered when this index falls above or below a pre-specified threshold. This means that index insurance is not designed to protect farmers against every peril, but is instead designed for situations where there is a well-defined climate risk that significantly influences a farmer s livelihood. CCAFS Report No. 14 Payout per Hectare for Drought Protection for Commercial Farmers. World Bank 2011.

20 Soil Moisture Soil moisture content or deficit Soil moisture potential Can be estimated from meteorological parameters and soil moisture capacity Can be used to estimate start and end of growing seasons

21 Availability of Water to Plants Available Water Capacity Difference between the content at Field Capacity and that at Permanent Wilting Point AWC = FC - PWP Relationship between soil moisture characteristics and soil texture

22 Water stress coefficient (Ks) Soil water content FC RP PWP RAW Stress area AWC Refill point Source: FAO Irrigation and Drainage 56

23 Start and End of rainy season Beginning of the growing season of West Indies Red with no yield reduction. Values are month/date. Based on rainall vs evapotranspiration Trotman 2008 End of the growing season. Values are of month/date. Values are month/date. Based on soil moisture content

24 Early Warning Information Systems Across Climate Timescales (EWISACTS) Supporting sector-targeting products and packaging

25 The Consortium of Regional Sectoral EWISACTs Coordination Partners CONSORTIUM CARDI CWWA CDEMA CIMH CARPHA CTO/CHTA CCREEE Weather, Agriculture Water Water and DRM Health Energy Climate Tourism

26 26 Historical climate event database Socio-economic and physical impacts database linked with climate events Sectoral (including agriculture) preparedness and response mechanisms linked with impacts Supporting impacts research XLV FCAC Panamá City, 17/

27 Thank you