Subsidence watch. Issue 1 May cunninghamlindsey.com CONTENTS INTRODUCTION 1 WEATHER ANOMALIES BY REGION MONTHLY MAX TEMP 2 MONTHLY MEAN TEMP 3

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1 Subsidence watch Issue 1 May 217 CONTENTS INTRODUCTION 1 WEATHER ANOMALIES BY REGION MONTHLY MAX TEMP 2 MONTHLY MEAN TEMP 3 MONTHLY RAINFALL 4 MONTHLY SUNSHINE 5 MOISTURE DEFICITS AND RAINFALL 6 RAINFALL 7 GROUNDWATER RECORDS 9 cunninghamlindsey.com

2 Introduction We re starting our bulletins earlier than usual this year, as the warmer weather is starting to make us realise that we have already had a lack of rainfall in many parts of the country. Press and TV have been reporting the effects of dry weather on river levels and crop growth, and although this may be driven by a need to talk about something other than election promises, there is solid evidence behind the headlines: for the UK as a whole the last six months have been the driest in 2 years. So what does this mean for subsidence claim numbers later in the year? Well, as we normally point out, the current situation does not dictate what will happen in the latter part of the summer: it s the rainfall and temperature in July/August/ September which is the critical period. Hot and dry and the subsidence potential rises, cold and wet and all bets are off. However the drier the ground starts off, the more severe the potential consequences if we do get prolonged dry weather later on. What is the situation now? England enjoyed its third mildest March ever, and for the southeast, no March has ever been warmer. For much of the UK, daytime temperatures averaged 2 C above normal and whilst nighttimes were relatively a little less warm, the number of air frosts for England was still the lowest ever with many places in the south recording none. Sunshine was well above average everywhere except in the southwest and south Wales. Rainfall was close to the average for the UK as a whole but this disguised significant regional variation. Northern England and Wales were relatively wet, whilst northern Scotland, East Anglia and the South East were notably dry (e.g. 44% of normal rain at Manston, Kent). Hence for the UK as a whole it has been the driest six months in 2 years. Looking ahead, for the rest of May and into early June, the Met Office advises that it will be unsettled in the northwest, but drier, brighter and possibly very warm in the southeast. Temperatures will tend towards the seasonal average, or will be slightly below this for some, with chilly nights possible. Into early June it appears more likely that high pressure will dominate across the UK, bringing largely dry and warmer weather for most. (Met Office update: 11 May 217) We are collecting MORECS data on soil moisture content, and our WeatherNet team are mapping the trends in maximum and mean temperatures, rainfall, and hours of sunshine. At this time, we all have to acknowledge that the claim numbers this year can go either way but based on current forecasts we d expect either another normal year for subsidence instructions, or quite likely something busier. This would give claim numbers at least in the region of 17,-2, matching the average (based on ABI published data). It may be more. We ll continue to monitor the forecasts and provide you with another bulletin in June. You can be assured that whether 217 ultimately proves to be a normal year or above or below average, we have the resources and planning in place to adapt and flex to whatever the summer produces, as we were able to demonstrate during the small uplift in claim numbers experienced last autumn. Disclaimer: The above is not intended to be a definitive guide to the actual new subsidence claim numbers to be expected in 217 and use by a third party is entirely at the user s risk. For further information about our predictions or our range of subsidence services, please contact: Kevin Williams Head of Subsidence T E kevin.williams@cl-uk.com Subsidence Watch May 217 1

3 Weather anomalies WeatherNet s weather anomalies up to April 217 Monthly maximum temperature Anomaly by region Maximum Temperature Anomaly ( C) Cooler Warmer Maximum Temperature Anomaly ( C) East Anglia England E + NE England NW + N Wales England SE/Central S England SW + S Wales Midlands All Records WeatherNet 217 Tel: ; Fax: ; Pa Subsidence Watch May 217 2

4 Weather anomalies WeatherNet s weather anomalies up to April 217 Monthly mean temperature Anomaly by region Mean Temperature Anomaly ( C) Cooler Warmer Mean Temperature Anomaly ( C) East Anglia England E + NE England NW + N Wales England SE/Central S England SW + S Wales Midlands All Records WeatherNet 217 Tel: ; Fax: ; Pa Subsidence Watch May 217 3

5 Weather anomalies WeatherNet s weather anomalies up to April 217 3% 25% Monthly rainfall Anomaly by region % of Normal Rainfall Total 2% 15% 1% 5% % Drier Wetter % of Normal Rainfall Total East Anglia 14% 99% 58% 5% 14% 38% 174% 121% 1% 67% 116% 99% 131% 73% 162% 136% 11% 21% 59% 58% 92% 56% 12% 39% 88% 14% 76% 33% England E + NE 89% 7% 85% 46% 165% 56% 142% 117% 66% 94% 161% 29% 185% 15% 125% 138% 75% 127% 87% 119% 82% 74% 128% 55% 58% 125% 122% 39% England NW + N Wales 126% 78% 17% 66% 181% 59% 13% 111% 52% 49% 2% 257% 167% 153% 89% 138% 76% 166% 126% 127% 11% 28% 95% 58% 59% 119% 142% 35% England SE/Central S 124% 11% 43% 36% 114% 56% 121% 21% 112% 64% 9% 1% 171% 13% 152% 12% 119% 19% 41% 71% 78% 36% 118% 23% 15% 98% 77% 18% England SW + S Wales 121% 94% 69% 35% 134% 72% 134% 174% 82% 53% 125% 154% 164% 141% 114% 77% 97% 164% 49% 98% 124% 34% 98% 41% 71% 97% 132% 36% Midlands 13% 78% 91% 41% 137% 58% 113% 126% 68% 74% 146% 162% 144% 135% 151% 116% 98% 165% 58% 1% 91% 37% 13% 46% 83% 15% 116% 3% All Records WeatherNet 217 Tel: ; Fax: ; Pag Subsidence Watch May 217 4

6 Weather anomalies WeatherNet s weather anomalies up to April 217 2% Monthly sunshine Anomaly by region % of Normal Sunshine Total Duller Brighter 15% 1% 5% % % of Normal Sunshine Total East Anglia 128% 113% 133% 139% 15% 124% 15% 9% 12% 88% 64% 82% 11% 122% 116% 113% 111% 73% 19% 119% 16% 11% 126% 121% 123% 69% 124% 12% England E + NE 146% 125% 114% 155% 12% 123% 11% 19% 119% 92% 76% 82% 71% 136% 13% 112% 16% 81% 16% 115% 17% 12% 124% 114% 112% 8% 125% 121% England NW + N Wales 112% 99% 19% 143% 83% 118% 92% 11% 131% 94% 59% 66% 68% 113% 19% 16% 12% 9% 9% 14% 96% 19% 128% 93% 112% 59% 118% 15% England SE/Central S 118% 11% 124% 134% 96% 124% 98% 73% 121% 85% 42% 66% 1% 113% 119% 13% 19% 63% 99% 111% 92% 113% 117% 125% 13% 68% 115% 121% England SW + S Wales 118% 113% 129% 135% 94% 127% 97% 84% 132% 13% 51% 64% 94% 17% 13% 15% 112% 72% 89% 14% 86% 125% 117% 13% 125% 75% 9% 117% Midlands 143% 19% 115% 149% 95% 13% 1% 86% 125% 88% 6% 76% 87% 139% 114% 112% 114% 72% 11% 113% 98% 18% 132% 118% 11% 67% 119% 121% All Records WeatherNet 217 Tel: ; Fax: ; Pa Subsidence Watch May 217 5

7 Moisture deficts and rainfall WeatherNet s moisture deficits and rainfall up to March 217 MORECS TABLE Square 161 South East & Central South Mean Temperatures Morecs Figure Week No Temp Jan Apr Jul Oct Month '71 - ' Average Prediction East Anglia Rainfall Comparisons Incl. South East & Central South Rainfall Comparisons 12 1 E. Anglia Average '71-' SE & Central South Average '71- ' 23 mm Jan Apr Jul Oct Month Prediction mm Prediction Jan Apr Jul Oct Month Subsidence Watch May 217 6

8 % of average % of average Rainfall March 217 rainfall as % of average October March 217 rainfall as % of average Subsidence Watch May 217 7

9 Rainfall October - March rainfall for Northern Ireland 1 Rainfall (mm) s 192s 193s 194s 195s 196s 197s 198s 199s 2s 21s October - March average outflows for Scotland 5 4 The Hydrological Outlook provides an insight into future levels on a monthly basis, with particular focus on the next three months. The complete version of the Hydrological Outlook UK can be found at: Period: from April 217 Issued: using data to the end of March 217 levels in the south east of England to be normal to below groundwater levels are most likely. Flow (m 3 s -1 ) * For a grass cover 196s 197s 198s 199s 2s 21s Over the next three months there is the possibility of very low groundwater levels occurring in parts of south-east England (i.e. the Chalk of Kent and Sussex, and possibly the Chilterns). Elsewhere in the UK over this time scale, normal river flows and groundwater levels are most probable. Subsidence Watch May 217 8

10 Groundwater records Killyglen 17/33 2/23 Newbridge Greenfield Garage Bussells No.7a Royalty Observatory 23/27 21/24 Skirwith Aycliffe 19/37 16/39 Wetwang 23/46 Brick House 16/37 31/129 Farm Dalton Holme 21/39 Aylesby Alstonfield 1/46 28/42 New Red Heathlanes Lion 29/54 23/44 Washpit 16/67 Farm 27/42 7/46 Lodge Nuttalls Redlands Farm Hall Dial 1/49 9/52 Farm Ampney 39/131 Crucis Therfield Pant y 37/59 Lladron Stonor Rectory 1/56 Park 17/22 18/85 Rockley 16/74 Chipstead Tilshead 1/49 Compton 6/47 West Woodyates House Manor Houndean 42/73 11/41 45/123 74/182 1/48 9/46 Lime Chilgrove House 12/75 17/44 Llanfair D.C Kiln Way Ashton Farm BGS NERC NERC Key J1/25 Aquifer Frying Pan Westdean No.3 Monthly rank/period of record (record figure when circled) Exceptionally high levels Notably high levels Above normal Normal range Below normal Notably low levels Exceptionally low levels Chalk Jurassic limestones Permo-Triassic sandstones Magnesian Limestone Carboniferous Limestone Little Bucket Farm Groundwater levels - March 217 based on a comparison between the most recent level and levels for the same date during previous years of record. Where appropriate, levels for earlier years may have been interpolated. The rankings are designed as a qualitative indicator, and ranks at extreme levels, and when levels are changing rapidly, need to be interpreted with caution. Subsidence Watch May 217 9