GOES-R COMET Partners Proposal: Using Satellite Imagery to Improve Forecasting of Lake-Effect Snow Bands with a Multiple Lake Connection

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1 GOES-R COMET Partners Proposal: Using Satellite Imagery to Improve Forecasting of Lake-Effect Snow Bands with a Multiple Lake Connection Project Summary: The proposed research is a collaborative project between the Binghamton, NY National Weather Service Forecast Office (NWSFO) and Hobart & William Smith Colleges. We propose to use GOES and GOES-R products in combination with currently existing operational and historical data (e.g., WSR-88D, surface observations, numerical model output) to better forecast and understand the development, evolution, and impact of lake-effect snow bands during events with multi-lake connections. Proposed Start Date: Oct. 1, 2011; Project Duration: 1 year; Proposed COMET Budget: $13,833 Project Overview: Lake-effect snowstorms are often intense, banded mesoscale systems that typically occur over and downwind of the Great Lakes. These snow bands can produce large snowfalls, create conditions of reduced visibility from falling and windblown snow, and are often associated with abnormally cold temperatures. Lake-effect storms have an enormous impact in the eastern Great Lakes region because major interstate highways and large cities such as Cleveland, Erie, Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse are frequently impacted. Since the snow bands often have narrow widths (e.g., km) and complex connections to upwind lakes, it is important to both (a) accurately predict their development and evolution and (b) have reliable methods of monitoring changes in snow band intensity and evolution. The lower spatial resolution of current GOES infrared (IR) imagery and the availability of higher spatial resolution GOES visible imagery for fewer daylight hours during the cold season have often placed the operational use of satellite imagery for monitoring the evolution of lake-effect bands second to using weather radar. Often this operational reliance on radar data can be problematic because portions of snow bands at greater distances from the radar site are not well observed by the lowest elevation scans which overshoot the shallow convection (the situation of several shoreline and inland areas throughout the Great Lakes region). For example, monitoring lake-effect snow bands south of Lake Ontario in the region bounded by Brockport, Fair Haven, and Penn Yan, NY has provided continued challenges due to the range from the KBUF, KBGM, and KTYX WSR-88D radars (Figure 1, Brown et al. 2007). In addition, the limited range of WSR- 88D radars makes it difficult to diagnose the existence and structure of snow bands over large distances covering multiple lakes. Mosaic products encompassing data from several radars have some utility in this regard; however large gaps in the data still occur. 1

2 Many studies have investigated different types of lake-effect snow storms. Most have examined individual events using radar, sounding, and surface observations or have used singular field project datasets collected with special measurement facilities. However, three studies have approached lake-effect snow storms from a more holistic view using typical storm characteristics to provide operational or climatological understanding of different types of lakeeffect. Niziol et al. (1995) classified lake-effect into five different categories (Type I through Type V). He separated wind parallel bands into two categories, and also included individual categories for bands covering multiple lakes simultaneously, as well as mesoscale vortices. Niziol et al. (1995) provided a discussion of the general conditions associated with each lakeeffect type and their operational relevance. Kristovich and Steve (1995) used visible GOES imagery from a five winter time period (1988/ /1994) to separate identifiable lakeeffect clouds into two categories, 1) widespread wind parallel bands and 2) single or double bands oriented parallel to the long axis of the lake. Although restricted to a dataset from five winters, the study by Kristovich and Steve (1995) provided new information concerning the frequency of different types of lake-effect in the Great Lakes region. More recently, Rodriguez et al. (2007) used visible GOES imagery from a five winter time period (2000/ /2005) to identify and determine the frequency of several basic lake-effect categories; wind parallel bands, shore parallel bands, and mesoscale vortices, as well as lake-to-lake (L2L) cloud bands. Rodriguez et al. (2007) indicated that L2L bands occur in association with Lakes Superior and Michigan, Lakes Superior and Huron, Lakes Michigan and Erie, Lakes Huron and Erie, and Lakes Huron and Ontario. In some situations, L2L bands extend across three lakes. An example of L2L bands occurring in association with Lakes Superior-Huron-Ontario, Lakes Huron-Ontario, and Lakes Michigan-Erie is shown in Figure 2 from an event on 4 November Figure 2: GOES-8 visible satellite image at 1402 UTC on 4 November 1995 showing lake-to-lake (L2L) event within the Great Lakes region. Prior to the study by Rodriguez et al. (2007) much of the research on L2L influences had utilized numerical modeling of individual cases or idealized numerical experiments. For example, Mann et al. (2002) conducted a modeling investigation of a multi-lake event which built 2

3 on a series of numerical modeling studies examining the multiscale atmospheric responses to the Great Lakes (Sousounis and Fritsch 1994; Sousounis 1997, 1998; Weiss and Sousounis 1999, Sousounis et al. 1999; Sousounis and Mann 2000). Rose (2000) pointed out that while some authors indicated that a minimum of 80-km fetch over open lake waters is typically needed for formation of significant lake-effect precipitation (e.g., Lavoie 1972; Niziol 1987), preconditioning of the atmosphere by upwind lakes can allow for much more rapid development. Rose (2000) used idealized model simulations to find that thermal preconditioning led to deeper and more intense lake-effect circulations, which would tend to enhance snowfall, and longer persistence of the lake-effect events. In some situations, Rose (2000) found that mesoscale circulation patterns induced by upwind lakes can also enhance circulations over downwind lakes, as previously suggested by Byrd et al. (1995). Although the presence of L2L bands should have an important influence on the evolution and intensity of lake-effect snow bands over the downwind lake, there remains a lack of understanding of these events from both operational and research perspectives. In fact, the study by Rodriguez et al. (2007), although limited to a 5-winter dataset of visible GOES imagery, provided the first indication of the observed frequency of Great Lakes L2L bands that develop over an upwind lake, span an intervening land mass, and extend over a downwind lake. Given the large spatial length of L2L bands, monitoring and short-term forecasting of these events can be greatly aided by the use of satellite imagery. We plan to further the understanding of these events by synthesizing information from a variety of operational and historical data sets (e.g., GOES-R, GOES, WSR-88D, surface and sounding observations, numerical model output). Our primary goal of the proposed research project is to investigate the ability of existing realtime and archived GOES imagery and available real-time GOES-R demonstration products to improve the monitoring and nowcasting of lake-effect snow bands with a multi-lake connection. Specifically we are interested in investigating L2L connections between Lakes Huron and Ontario and Lakes Michigan and Erie because these events have the greatest influence on the County Warning Areas (CWA) east of Lakes Erie and Ontario. We anticipate that our results will greatly benefit the Binghamton NWSFO, as well as the NWSFOs in Buffalo, NY and Burlington, VT that forecast for these regions of New York State. Project Objectives: We propose two research objectives in order to help develop a greater understanding and operational awareness of lake-effect events with a multi-lake connection that impact areas in the vicinity of Lakes Ontario and Erie. Our two objectives include a (1) 15-winter satellite climatology of eastern Great Lakes L2L events and (2) comparative analysis of GOES- R satellite demonstration products and currently-available GOES satellite imagery for L2L events which occur during the upcoming winter of 2011/ ) Climatological Analysis of Lake-to-Lake (L2L) Band Events: The proposed research under this objective will address questions, such as: How often do L2L bands occur? How long do L2L events typically last? What downwind locations are impacted most often by L2L events? What parcel trajectories and synoptic patterns are most favorable for enhanced and prolonged L2L bands culminating over Lake Ontario and Lake Erie? How often are L2L events associated with major lake-effect snow events, vs. non-l2l events in otherwise similar environments? In answering these questions the proposed research will improve warning accuracy and lead time for significant L2L events. Our proposed climatological analysis will examine a 15-winter time period (i.e., 1997/1998 through 2011/2012) and focus on L2L events which have impacted Lake Ontario or Lake Erie. We plan to use archived GOES satellite imagery and existing archived operational and historical data (e.g., WSR- 88D radar, sounding, surface and snowfall observations, North American Regional Reanalysis). Additionally, we plan to use simulations from the HYSPLIT model to conduct trajectory analyses for identified L2L events. 3

4 The two past research investigations that have examined the frequency of lake-effect clouds in the Great Lakes region restricted their studies to only the use of GOES visible imagery (Kristovich and Steve 1995, Rodriguez et al. 2007). These data were chosen because of their available archive and data formats, but the use of only GOES visible imagery limited identification of lake-effect occurrence to a time period of 4-5 hours per day and did not allow for investigation of the evolution and duration of L2L bands. As part of our analyses, we plan to utilize the currently archived and operationally-available GOES infrared (IR) and visible imagery. The archived GOES imagery is currently available from NOAA s Comprehensive Large Array-data Stewardship System (CLASS), an archive of NOAA environmental data ( The longwave IR imagery is most often used by the NWSFOs. The shortwave IR is helpful in observing ground fog, fires, volcanoes, sea surface temperatures, and clouds, but can also provide information regarding the existence and characteristics of lake-effect clouds (Wagenmaker et al. 1997). Experience from both the Binghamton and Buffalo NWSFOs suggests that parcel trajectories during L2L band events can greatly influence band intensity and evolution. To examine this issue within a climatological framework, we plan to use simulations with the HYSPLIT model (Draxler and Hess 1998, Draxler and Rolph 2011, Rolph 2011, Figure 3 shows three back trajectories using the HYSPLIT model for the L2L event on 4 November 1995 (shown in Figure 2). A series of simulations will be conducted to study the relationship between parcel trajectory and L2L band evolution for each L2L band event identified during the 15-winter period. The primary goal for this component of the study is to determine whether forecast parcel trajectories can be used to anticipate the development and evolution of L2L events. Lastly, we plan to examine existing GOES water vapor imagery for L2L events where a well-developed cloud band may not be clearly connecting the upwind and downwind lakes, but the HYSPLIT simulation has shown parcel trajectories suggesting a robust L2L connection. The water vapor imagery may provide some precursor information to forecasters to allow them to better predict and monitor possible L2L events under conditions when a visible L2L cloud is not present. Figure 3: HYSPLIT model simulation showing three 36-hour back trajectories ending at 1400 UTC on 4 November 1995 (time corresponding to GOES visible image shown in Figure 2).The top panel shows horizontal trajectory path. The stars are locations where back trajectory was started. The bottom panel shows vertical trajectory path for parcels beginning at 500 m AGL. 4

5 2) Comparison of GOES-R demonstration products and GOES imagery for Lake-to-Lake (L2L) Band Events: The proposed research under this objective will address questions, such as: What potential benefit over current GOES imagery will GOES-R products provide NWSFOs for forecasting L2L snow bands? What role could new GOES-R satellite products play in lake-effect forecasting? What may be some of the limitations of the new GOES-R products for diagnosing and forecasting L2L snow bands? The emphasis of this objective is to examine GOES-R demonstration products through comparative analysis with currently available GOES imagery for numerous L2L snow band events and bring greater forecaster awareness to the NWSFO of the availability and utility of GOES-R products for lake-effect snow forecasting, especially regarding L2L events. Wagenmaker et al. (1997) suggested that GOES longwave and shortwave IR channels, as well as the difference field between IR channels, provided useful information as part of a case study examination of a lake-effect snow event over Lakes Superior and Huron. For the proposed research, we plan to examine both IR channels and the difference field of current GOES imagery for L2L snow band cases from the 2011/2012 winter to see what useful information this may provide over just using a single IR channel. Comparative analyses are not often completed during operations or in historical case study analyses for lake-effect events. In conducting these comparative analyses between satellite products, we also plan to examine the benefits that GOES-R demonstration products, such as the Shortwave IR, IR Window, Water Vapor, and Fog/stratus Product, can provide as compared to existing GOES imagery. Table 1 shows the entire array of GOES-R demonstration products that we plan to examine for identified L2L snow band events from the 2011/2012 winter season. Several of these products have been utilized by forecasters at the Binghamton, NY NWSFO; however, other GOES-R demonstration products have not been examined for lake-effect situations (these products are denoted by a double asterisk in Table 1). Table 1. Current GOES-R demonstration products routinely available in AWIPS that will be examined for L2L snow band events from the 2011/2012 winter. Product Name Visible (0.65µm) Snow/Ice Discrimination ** (2.1µm) Shortwave IR (3.7µm) Water Vapor (6.7µm) IR Window (11.0µm) Fog/stratus Product ** ( µm) Product Input MODIS (Band 1) MODIS (Band 7) MODIS (Band 20) MODIS (Band 27) MODIS (Band 31) Demonstration Resolution GOES-R Resolution Product Source 1 km / 4 images per day 0.5 km / 5 min CIMSS, SPoRT 1 km / 4 images per day 2 km / 5 min CIMSS 1 km / 4 images per day 2 km / 5 min CIMSS, SPoRT 1 km / 4 images per day 2 km / 5 min CIMSS, SPoRT 1 km / 4 images per day 2 km / 5 min CIMSS, SPoRT MODIS 1 km / 4 images per day 2 km / 5 min CIMSS, SPoRT Sea Surface Temperature MODIS 1 km / 4 images per day 2 km / 5 min CIMSS, SPoRT Cloud Top Temperature ** MODIS 4 km / 4 images per day 10 km / 15 min CIMSS Total Precipitable Water ** MODIS 4 km / 4 images per day 10 km / 15 min CIMSS Composite SST MODIS 1 km / 6 hr 2 km / 1 hr SPoRT GOES Mesoscale Winds ** GOES Variable / 15 min N/A CIMSS Convective Initiation ** GOES 4 km / 5-15 min 2 km / 5 min CIMSS 5

6 Description of Specific Tasks: 1) NWSFO Winter Weather Workshops in 2011 and 2012: During October/November of 2011, Dr. Laird will visit the Binghamton, NY NWSFO to participate in their annual winter weather workshop. As part of the workshop, Dr. Laird will provide the overview and details of our COMET Partners Project on utilization of GOES and GOES-R products to improve monitoring and forecasting of L2L snow bands. The timing of the presentation will be prior to conducting the research component of the project. The purpose of the early presentation and discussion of the project is (a) to introduce the project in a formal way to the forecasters in the NWSFO and (b) solicit their participation in the project during the 2011/2012 winter season. We plan to develop a short informational questionnaire that we will ask all forecasters to complete following lake-effect events during the upcoming winter (see more information regarding forecaster participation below). During October/November of 2012, Dr. Laird will again visit the Binghamton, NY NWSFO to participate in the annual winter weather workshop. As part of the workshop, Dr. Laird will present and discuss the results of the research component of the project conducted during the summer of This will provide an opportunity for all forecasters in the NWSFO to hear and discuss the results of the research project and learn how information from their real-time assessments during the winter of 2011/2012 was incorporated into the project. This will also allow the research results to directly and immediately be incorporated into the forecasting processes at the NWSFO for the upcoming winter season. 2) NWSFOs Forecaster Participation: As part of the forecasting process in the Binghamton, NY NWSFO, forecasters will complete a questionnaire to help provide the research project real-time assessment of the degree that satellite imagery/products were used during lakeeffect events and what information resources (satellite, composite radar, and/or models) were utilized by forecaster for initial recognition of L2L connections. Examples of questions that may be used in the real-time forecast assessment of an event may include: Was there a multi-lake connection during the lake-effect event? What was the most useful product you used to identify the multi-lake connection? Was satellite or radar most useful in monitoring changes in the lake-effect snow band evolution? In what way(s) did satellite imagery help to monitor and/or forecast snow band evolution? Completion of this questionnaire will serve the dual purposes of aiding the research, and enhancing forecaster awareness of multi-lake snow band development in real-time. The completed questionnaires from the 2011/2012 winter will be summarized by students participating in the HWS 2012 summer research program (see description of summer research program below). This information will be incorporated into the research process the manner that is most appropriate will be determined during two meetings of COMET project PIs in October 2011 and May 2012; both meetings are prior to the research being conducted at HWS during the summer of In addition to participation of forecasters through real-time assessment, the NWSFO will help identify lake-effect events with L2L connections (Lakes Huron-Ontario and Lakes Michigan-Erie) to archive real-time GOES-R demonstration products through AWIPS at the NWSFO. The proposed collection of this satellite data set during the 2011/2012 winter, along with supplementary data for L2L events, will provide a unique opportunity to use comparative analyses of current GOES and new GOES-R products to examine the utility of satellite data on monitoring L2L connections and their influence on the lake-effect snow band intensity and evolution over the downwind lake. The NWSFO will be responsible for (a) 6

7 forecasting the L2L lake-effect event, and (b) archiving all AWIPS operational data for subsequent analysis and training. 3) NWSFOs Forecaster Training: Additionally, the NWSFO will reinforce the results of the COMET research project to forecasters beyond the winter weather workshop during October/November For example, NWSFO forecasters are required to complete two winter simulations prior to each season. We will plan to have one of the assigned simulations to be a COMET project L2L case study event from the winter of 2011/2012. This would be included as local WFO training in November 2012 and subsequent winters. 4) HWS 2012 Undergraduate Summer Research Program: COMET funds will provide an opportunity for two undergraduate students to participate in the 8-week Hobart & William Smith Colleges (HWS) 2012 summer research program. Dr. Laird s research group, which has consisted of HWS and non-hws undergraduates, is part of the larger HWS summer research program and therefore has access to affordable housing and program-wide workshops. Because undergraduate research played such an important role in the career path of Dr. Laird, he has made a concerted effort to meaningfully involve undergraduates in his research program. Dr. Laird began offering summer research opportunities for undergraduate students in 2005 after starting in a tenure-track faculty position at HWS in The 28 undergraduate research assistantships offered during the past 6 years have been supported by HWS and NSF grants. The participants in Dr. Laird s research group gain an appreciation for the process of conducting a scientific research study in the atmospheric sciences. It is often challenging to identify and setup research projects that (1) are manageable by undergraduates during an 8-week summer internship and (2) provide a significant scientific contribution to the field of atmospheric sciences. However, all past collaborative projects undertaken by undergraduate researchers and Dr. Laird have contributed to advancing grant-funded research and several, with continued work following the summer research experience; have led to conference presentations and peer-reviewed journal articles. Examples of conferences and meetings where students have presented include: the AMS Conference on Mesoscale Processes, Northeastern Storm Conference, and AMS Annual Student Conference. Scientific journal articles have been published in Weather and Forecasting, Monthly Weather Review, and the Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology. Dr. Laird typically uses pairings of undergraduates within each summer s research group to work on focused projects. This pedagogic approach has worked very well with undergraduates during past summers and has led to numerous investigations that have been well received by the atmospheric science community. During the 8-week summer research program students are required to document their work by completion of three detailed progress reports. These progress reports are reviewed and commented on by Dr. Laird and then revised by students. The reports contain information relevant to all aspects of the research project including background related research, methodology, and project analyses and results. During the COMET project, the progress reports will be shared with the NWSFO PI and interested forecasters as the reports are completed. This will allow the NWSFO to remain informed about the ongoing research and provide feedback during the investigations. These undergraduate research opportunities have been and will continue to be available to undergraduates from Meteorology, Atmospheric Science, Geoscience, and Geography programs at colleges and universities across the United States. For example, undergraduates have joined Dr. Laird s research group from Plymouth State Univ., Penn State Univ., Cornell Univ., Purdue Univ., Lyndon State College, Univ. at Albany (SUNY), North Carolina State Univ., Buffalo State College, Univ. of Georgia, Iowa State Univ. and 7

8 HWS. Student participants from the last six summers have included 75% from institutions other than HWS (21 of 28 students), 50% female, two with a physical disability, and approximately 11% from other underrepresented groups. In previous summers, several visiting researchers and collaborating scientists have come to HWS to work with students and Dr. Laird during the summer research program. They have provided constructive feedback on the research projects during their short visits (1-3 day) and their interactions have proven very useful to the students. For example, Dr. Eric Hoffman from the Meteorology program at Plymouth State University has visited during the last three summers bringing his experience in synoptic meteorology and teaching at the undergraduate level. Others have included: Dr. David Kristovich (Univ. Illinois), Dr. James Steenburgh (Univ. Utah), Dr. Stephen Colucci (Cornell Univ.), Dr. Adam Burnett (Colgate Univ.), Drs. Scott Steiger, Robert Ballentine, and Alfred Stamm (SUNY Oswego), Michael Evans and Michael Jurewicz (NWSFO Binghamton, NY), and Mark Wysocki (Cornell Univ. & NY State Climatologist). The collaborative effort of the COMET project will provide an excellent opportunity for undergraduate researchers to gain awareness of both operational and research areas in the field of atmospheric science. 5) NWSFO Binghamton summer student participant: In addition to the two undergraduate research assistants that will be working directly with Dr. Laird as part of the HWS 2012 Summer Research Program, the Binghamton NWSFO will solicit the participation of a NOAA Hollings undergraduate scholar, Student Career Employment Program (SCEP) student, or student volunteer for the summer of The NWSFO student participant will conduct collaborative research that is relevant to the COMET project while at the NWSFO. The opportunity to have this student working collaboratively with both the NWWFO and the HWS research group allows for greater sharing of project progress and results. Project Schedule: Time Period Early October 2011 October/November 2011 Winter 2011/2012 May 2012 June-August 2012 Task Meeting of HWS and NWSFO personnel to discuss and plan for upcoming winter operational component and subsequent summer research component of project. NWSFO Winter Weather Workshop to introduce project and request collaboration with forecasters. (a) Forecaster participation with real-time assessment and completion of questionnaire for all lake-effect events. (b) Archival of real-time GOES-R satellite demonstration products and supporting data sets for satellite comparative analyses of winter 2011/2012 L2L events. COMET project meeting to discuss lake-effect forecaster questionnaire summary and beginning of research component of project. HWS summer research program with participation of two undergraduate students conducting research related to COMET project. Students will work full-time (40 hrs per week) on the COMET project during the 8-week HWS summer research program. NWSFO Binghamton will seek a NOAA 8

9 Hollings scholar, SCEP student, or student summer volunteers to also work collaboratively on this project. October/November 2012 Fall 2012 / Spring 2013 Summer 2013 NWS Winter Weather Workshop to discuss research results. Additionally, the NWSFOs will reinforce the results of the COMET research project to forecasters beyond the winter weather workshop. For example, NWSFO forecasters are required to complete two winter simulations prior to each season. We will plan to have one of the assigned simulations to be a COMET project L2L case study event from the winter of 2011/2012. This would be included as local WFO training in November 2012 and subsequent winters. Presentation of research results at Northeast Regional Operational Workshop, Great Lakes Operational Workshop, and Northeastern Storm Conference. Complete and submit a scientific journal article describing the findings from the COMET project. Expected Benefits: Develop awareness of how GOES-R products are likely to benefit the monitoring and nowcasting of lake-effect snow bands with a multiple lake connection. Increase the incorporation of satellite imagery into the forecasting process during lake-effect events and enhance the awareness of the capabilities and limitations of several different satellite products specifically the new GOES-R products. Develop a greater understanding and awareness of the influences that upwind lakes can have on lake-effect snow band intensity and evolution during events with multilake connections. This will be accomplished by the two proposed research objectives which include: (1) 15-year climatological analysis of multi-lake lake-effect events when snow bands occurred in association with Lake Erie (with upwind connection to Lake Michigan or Lake Huron) or Lake Ontario (with upwind connection to Lake Huron) and (2) a comparative analysis of satellite imagery for multi-lake lake-effect event from the 2011/2012 winter. There is considerable anecdotal evidence that L2L snow bands produce some of the largest, highest-impact lake-effect snow events for the Syracuse, NY area. Results from this project should help NWS forecasters to anticipate and diagnose these events, leading to more timely watches and warnings. Increase knowledge of the utility of HYSPLIT trajectory forecasts for predicting and diagnosing L2L events. Develop collaborative project between NWSFO and HWS. We plan to involve NWSFO forecasters at the beginning of the research project and discuss the research results with them near the completion of the project. Presentations and discussions of the COMET project with forecasters in the NWSFO will occur during winter weather workshops of 2011 and During the winter of 2011/2012, forecasters will provide insight and comments regarding the operational awareness and importance of multi-lake connections during lake-effect events. NWSFO personnel will also be responsible for identifying and archiving data for L2L lake-effect events. During the summer research component, PIs and students from HWS and NWSFO will work closely together. 9

10 References Brown, R. A., T. A. Niziol, N. R. Donaldson, P. I. Joe, and V. T. Wood, 2007: Improved detection using negative elevation angles for mountaintop WSR-88Ds. Part III: Simulations of shallow convective activity over and around Lake Ontario. Wea. Forecasting, 22, Byrd, G. P., D. E. Bikos, D. L. Schleede, and R. J. Ballentine, 1995: The influence of upwind lakes on snowfall to the lee of Lake Ontario. Preprints, 14th Conf. on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, Dallas, TX, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Draxler, R.R., and G.D. Hess, 1998: An overview of the HYSPLIT_4 modeling system of trajectories, dispersion, and deposition. Aust. Meteor. Mag., 47, Draxler, R.R. and Rolph, G.D., HYSPLIT (HYbrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory) Model access via ( NOAA Air Resources Laboratory, Silver Spring, MD. Kristovich, D. A. R., and R. A. Steve III, 1995: A satellite study of cloud-band frequencies over the Great Lakes. J. Appl. Meteor., 34, Lavoie, R. L., 1972: A mesoscale numerical model of lake-effect storms. J. Atmos. Sci., 29, Mann, G. E., R. B. Wagenmaker, and P. J. Sousounis, 2002: The influence of multiple lake interactions upon lake-effect storms. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, Niziol, T. A., 1987: Operational forecasting of lake effect snowfall in western and central New York. Wea. Forecasting, 2, ,W. R. Snyder, and J. S.Waldstreicher, 1995: Winter weather forecasting throughout the eastern United States. Part IV: Lake effect snow. Wea. Forecasting, 10, Rodriguez, Yarice, David A. R. Kristovich, Mark R. Hjelmfelt, 2007: Lake-to-Lake Cloud Bands: Frequencies and Locations. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, Rolph, G.D., Real-time Environmental Applications and Display system (READY) Website ( NOAA Air Resources Laboratory, Silver Spring, MD. Rose, B. L., 2000: The role of upstream lakes in determining downstream severe lake-effect snowstorms. Ph.D. thesis, University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign, 182 pp. Sousounis, P. J., 1997: Lake-aggregate mesoscale disturbances. Part III: Description of a mesoscale aggregate vortex. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, , 1998: Lake-aggregate mesoscale disturbances. Part IV: Development of a mesoscale aggregate vortex. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, , and J. M. Fritsch, 1994: Lake-aggregate mesoscale disturbances. Part II: A case study of the effects on regional and synoptic-scale weather systems. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 75, , and G. E. Mann, 2000: Lake-aggregate mesoscale disturbances. Part V: Impacts on lakeeffect precipitation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, ,, G. S. Young, R. B. Wagenmaker, B. D. Hoggatt, and W. J. Badini, 1999: Forecasting during the Lake-ICE/ SNOWBANDS field experiments. Wea. Forecasting, 14, Tripoli, G. J., 2005: Numerical study of the 10 January 1998 lake-effect bands observed during Lake-ICE. J. Atmos. Sci., 62,

11 Wagenmaker, R., J. F. Weaver, and B. Connell, 1997: A satellite and sounding perspective of a sixty-three inch lake-effect snow event. Nat. Wea. Digest, 21, Weiss, C. C., and P. J. Sousounis, 1999: A climatology of collective lake disturbances. Mon. Wea. Rev., 127,

12 Budget COMET Funds NWS Contributions HWS BGM University Senior Personnel 1. Dr. Neil Laird $0 NA Other University Personnel 1. Undergraduate Research Assistants (2 student participants in HWS summer research program) $8,000 NA Fringe Benefits on University Personnel $612 NA Total Salaries + Fringe Benefits $8,612 NA NWS Personnel 1. Co-PI NA 50 hrs (Evans) 2. NWSFO Forecasters NA 92 hrs 3. NOAA Hollings Scholar / SCEP NA 240 hrs Travel 1. Research Travel $ Conference Travel $750 $1,500 Total Travel $900 Other Direct Costs 1. Materials & Supplies $0 NA 2. Publication Costs (put in the NWS $0 $3,000 column if a co-author will be an NWS employee) 3. Other Data $0 4. NWS Computers & Related Hardware NA 5. Other (see budget justification) $1,120 Total Other Direct Costs $1,120 Indirect Costs NA 1. Indirect Cost Rate 40%** 2. Applied to which items? Total Salaries Total Indirect Costs $3,200 NA Total Costs (Direct + Indirect) $13,833 $4,500 ** See Budget Description and letter of support for discussion of reduction to HWS indirect rate. 12

13 Budget Description: Personnel: Funds are requested for two undergraduate research assistants during the summer of the grant to aid with research analyses and provide meaningful research experiences for undergraduate students. Each student will be a participant in an established 8-week undergraduate summer research program at Hobart & William Smith Colleges (HWS) and work directly with Dr. Laird. Summer research students will receive a salary of $500 per week for the 8-week summer program during The research stipend and costs associated with undergraduate students participating in the HWS summer research program are comparable to financial support provided to students in similar undergraduate summer research programs at other colleges and universities. Specifically, this level of support is comparable to undergraduate students that are obtaining research internships through National Science Foundation (NSF) Research Experiences for Undergraduates (REU) programs and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Ernest F. Hollings scholarship program. In addition to the two undergraduate research assistants that will be working directly with Dr. Laird as part of the HWS 2012 Summer Research Program, the National Weather Service (NWS) Forecast Office in Binghamton will seek the participation of a NOAA Hollings undergraduate scholar, SCEP student, or student volunteer. The potential of having the NWSFO student working collaboratively with the HWS research group will allow for greater sharing of project progress and results. This student will work primarily at NWSFO Binghamton, but would likely visit the HWS research group at least two times during the summer research program. Fringe Benefits are calculated by ( * undergraduate summer research intern). Fringe benefits in this proposal are only associated with the salaries of the HWS undergraduate research assistants. Travel: Funds are requested to cover HWS travel costs associated with the presentation of research results by Dr. Laird and HWS summer undergraduate research assistants at the Northeastern Storm Conference during March This conference is often held in New York, Vermont, or Massachusetts. The Northeastern Storm Conference provides undergraduate students opportunities to discuss and present their research, learn about graduate school from current graduate students and potential graduate research advisors, and gain information about scientific, educational, and employment trends and possibilities. Additional presentation of research results may include the Great Lakes Operational Meteorology Workshop (GLOMW) or Northeast Regional Operational Workshop (NROW). Requested HWS travel funds will also be used to offset some of the costs for Dr. Laird to participate in the Winter Weather Forecast workshops during the fall of both 2011 and 2012 at the Binghamton NWSFO. The workshop during the fall of 2011 is important to introduce and discuss the upcoming research project with forecasters and solicit their participation by completing a brief informational questionnaire following their forecasting and monitoring of lake-effect storms during the winter of 2011/2012. The workshop during the fall of 2012 is 13

14 important to share results from the research conducted during the summer of 2012 with forecasters so this information can be directly integrated into the forecasting and monitoring of lake-effect storms during subsequent winters. Funds are requested for the NWSFO to present the research results during at least one conference or workshop. These funds would support travel to either one national conference or two regional conferences (e.g., GLOWM, NEStorm, NROW). Other Direct Costs: Funds are requested to cover housing costs for two undergraduate students during the summer of Housing on the HWS campus will be provided for two HWS summer program research assistants for an 8-week time period during the summer. The housing costs are $70 per week for each person. Funds are requested for the NWSFO to cover publication costs of a scientific journal article. Indirect Costs / F&A Normally, the indirect rate for HWS is calculated as 70% of the total salaries and wages of project personnel. Total salary and wages include those of the two HWS undergraduate research assistants participating in the 2012 summer research program. In order for the total cost of the proposed research budget not to exceed the $15,000 limit associated with GOES-R COMET Partners proposals, Hobart & William Smith Colleges has agreed to use a revised indirect rate of 40% of the total salaries and wages of project personnel. A letter of support from the HWS Provost has been included in the proposal materials along with a copy the HWS Indirect Rate Agreement showing the normal rate used. 14

15 Summary of Current and Pending Funding: Neil F. Laird, Hobart & William Smith Colleges a. Title: Collaborative Research: Multi-scale study of lake breezes and the impact of marine boundary layers on convection in the Great Lakes region. Source: National Science Foundation Amount: $288,720 Award Period: 9/1/07 8/31/11 Person-Months Per Year Committed to the Project: Calendar: 0.0 Academic: 2.0 Summer: 1.5 b. Title: MRI: Acquisition of an instrument network to investigate zooplankton dormancy in the Finger Lakes of New York. Source: National Science Foundation Amount: $418,430 Award Period: 9/1/08 8/31/11 Person-Months Per Year Committed to the Project: Calendar: 0.0 Academic: 0.0 Summer:

16 Curricula Vitae: Mike Evans earned his Bachelor s of science degree in Meteorology from Penn State University in He worked as a forecaster at Accu-Weather Inc. in State College, Pa from , then earned a Master s Degree in Atmospheric Science at the State University at Albany in Mike began his National Weather Service career as a meteorologist intern in Charleston West Virginia in 1992, worked as a forecaster at the WFO in White Lake Michigan from , and worked as a lead forecaster at the WFO in State College, Pennsylvania from Mike has been the Science Operations Office at the WFO in Binghamton, New York since January, During that time he has led the office science and training programs, gaining extensive knowledge and experience in forecasting all kinds of meteorological phenomena in central New York, including lake effect snow. Some highlights of Mike s career during the past several years include publication of several research papers (details are given below, completion of a COMET partner s project with Cornell University on flash flooding, development of national winter weather forecaster training as an instructor for the NWS Advanced Warning Operations Course, serving as the National Weather Service focal point for 2 projects with the Collaborative Science, Technology, and Applied Research (CSTAR) program, and leading the effort to host the U.S. / Canadian Great Lakes Operational Workshop with Cornell University. During his career, Mike has researched and published studies on a wide range of meteorological phenomena. Topics include precipitation type forecasting, heavy snow banding within winter storms, lake effect snow, and low CAPE high shear severe weather. Details on the publication of some that work are given below: Evans, M.S., D. Keyser, L.F. Bosart and G.M. Lackmann, 1994: A satellite derived classification scheme for rapid maritime cyclogenesis, Mon. Wea. Rev., 122, Evans M.S. and R.H. Grumm, 2000: An examination of Eta model forecast soundings during mixedprecipitation events, Natl. Wea. Dig., 24, Evans, M.S. and R.B. Wagenmaker, 2000: An examination of an intense west-east oriented lake-effect snow band over southeast Michigan, Natl. Wea. Dig., 24, Jurewicz, M.L. and M.S. Evans, 2004: A comparison of two banded, heavy snowstorms with very different synoptic settings, Wea. Forecasting, 19, Evans, M.S, 2006: An analysis of a frontogenetically forced early-spring snowstorm, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 87, Evans, M.S., and R. Murphy, 2008: A proposed methodology for reconciling high-resolution numerical modeling guidance with pattern recognition to predict lake-effect snow, NWA electronic journal of operational meteorology. Evans, M.S. and M.L. Jurewicz, 2009: Correlations between analyses and forecasts of banded heavy snow ingredients and observed snowfall, Wea. Forecasting, 24, Evans, M.S., 2010: An examination of low CAPE / high shear severe convective events in the Binghamton, NY county warning area, Natl. Wea. Dig., 34,

17 Neil F. Laird completed a B.S. degree in meteorology with a minor in mathematics at the State University of New York at Oswego in Two years later, he received a M.S. degree from the Department of Atmospheric Sciences (DAS) at the University of Illinois and accepted a research scientist position in the Atmospheric Environment Section of the Illinois State Water Survey. During September 1998, Neil returned as a part-time graduate student to the DAS to pursue a Ph.D. while continuing to work full-time at the Illinois State Water Survey. In June 2001, he completed his Ph.D. and accepted a one-year visiting assistant professor position in the Department of Geoscience at Hobart & William Smith Colleges. In May 2002, Neil accepted a research assistant professor position at the University of Illinois where he conducted research and taught undergraduate and graduate courses within the Department of Atmospheric Sciences. In July 2004, Neil joined Hobart & William Smith Colleges in a tenure-track position and now holds the position of associate professor in the Department of Geoscience. Education Ph.D., Atmospheric Sciences, June 2001 University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, Illinois M. S., Atmospheric Sciences, May 1992 University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, Illinois Honors: University Graduate Student Fellowship, 1990 B. S., Meteorology, May 1990 State University of New York at Oswego, Oswego, New York Honors: Magna Cum Laude, Outstanding Meteorology Senior, 1990 Minor: Mathematics Professional Experience Associate Professor 2009-present Hobart & William Smith Colleges, Department of Geoscience, Geneva, NY Assistant Professor Hobart & William Smith Colleges, Department of Geoscience, Geneva, NY Research Assistant Professor University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Urbana, IL Visiting Assistant Professor Hobart & William Smith Colleges, Department of Geoscience, Geneva, NY Associate Professional Scientist Illinois State Water Survey, Atmospheric Environment Section, Champaign, IL Assistant Professional Scientist Illinois State Water Survey, Atmospheric Environment Section, Champaign, IL Graduate Research and Teaching Assistant University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Urbana, IL Demonstration Coordinator & Presenter 1990 National Lightning Detection Network, Power Technologies, Inc., Schenectady, NY Meteorological Consultant and Researcher Falconer Weather Information Service, Scotia, NY Undergraduate Research Assistant winter State University of New York at Oswego, Earth Sciences Department, Oswego, NY 17

18 Selected Peer-Reviewed Publications * Student co-authors 1. *Payer, M., N. F. Laird, *R. Maliawco, and E. Hoffman, (in press): Surface fronts, troughs, and baroclinic zones in the Great Lakes region. Wea. Forecasting 2. Laird, N. F., *R. Sobash, and *N. Hodas, 2010: Climatological conditions of lake-effect precipitation events associated with the New York State Finger Lakes. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 49, Laird, N. F., *R. Sobash, and *N. Hodas, 2009: The frequency and characteristics of lake-effect precipitation events associated with the New York State Finger Lakes. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 48, Laird, N. F., *J. Desrochers, and *M. Payer, 2009: Climatology of lake-effect precipitation events over Lake Champlain. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 48, *Cordeira, J. M. and N. F. Laird, 2008: The influence of ice cover on two lake-effect snow events over Lake Erie. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, *Gerbush, M. R., D. A. R. Kristovich, and N. F. Laird, 2008: Mesoscale boundary layer and heat flux variations over pack ice covered Lake Erie. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 47, *Payer, M., *J. Desrochers, and N. F. Laird, 2007: A lake-effect snowband over Lake Champlain. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, *Grim, J. A., N. F. Laird, and D. A. R. Kristovich, 2004: Mesoscale vortices embedded within a lakeeffect shoreline band. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, Laird, N. F. and D. A. R. Kristovich, 2004: Comparison of observations with idealized model results for a method to resolve winter lake-effect mesoscale morphology. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, Laird, N. F., J. E. Walsh, and D. R. Kristovich, 2003: Model simulations examining the relationship of lake-effect morphology to lake shape, wind direction, and wind speed. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, Laird, N. F., D. R. Kristovich, and J. E. Walsh, 2003: Idealized model simulations examining the mesoscale structure of winter lake-effect circulations. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, Kristovich, D. A. R., N. F. Laird, and M. R. Hjelmfelt, 2003: Convective evolution across Lake Michigan in a lake-effect snow event. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, Laird, N. F. and D. Kristovich, 2002: Variations of sensible and latent heat fluxes from a Great Lakes buoy and associated synoptic weather patterns. J. Hydrometeor., 3, Laird, N. F., D. A. R. Kristovich, X.-Z. Liang, R. W. Arrit, and K. Labas, 2001: Lake Michigan lake breezes: climatology, local forcing, and synoptic environment. J. Appl. Meteor., 40, Laird, N. F., L. J. Miller, and D. A. R. Kristovich, 2001: Synthetic dual-doppler analysis of a winter mesoscale vortex. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, Laird, N. F., 1999: Observation of coexisting mesoscale lake-effect vortices over the western Great Lakes. Mon. Wea. Rev., 127, Kristovich, D. A. R., N. F. Laird, M. R. Hjelmfelt, R. G. Derickson, and K. A. Cooper, 1999: Transitions in boundary layer meso-gamma convective structures: An observational case study. Mon. Wea. Rev., 127, Kristovich, D. A. R., and N. F. Laird, 1998: Observations of widespread lake effect cloudiness: Influences of lake surface temperature and upwind conditions. Wea. Forecasting, 13,

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