DEUTSCHE WELLE SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY REPORT. October 2006

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1 DEUTSCHE WELLE SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY REPORT October 2006 Steffen Hilbig Mess- un Kontrollzentrale

2 DEUTSCHE WELLE SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY REPORT October 2006 Aurora Borealis Steffen Hilbig

3 Solar Geophysical Activity Summary 2 Table of Contents. 2 Introuction 3 Review 4 Solar Images of October , 6 Diagram: Solar Inices (Solar Flux, Sunspot Numbers, Ap-Inex) 7 Diagram: Solar Win Velocity (aily values) Diagram: Solar Win (evelopment). 9 Diagram: Planetary A - Inices (aily values).. 10 Diagram: Planetary A - Inices (evelopment).. 11 Diagram: Planetary K - Inices (aily values).. 12 Diagram: Planetary K - Inices (evelopment) 13 Diagram: Geomagnetic Activity (aily events). 14 Northern Auroral Oval Images 15, 16 Northern Auroral Oval Description 17 Space Weather Scales (Ap - Inices) Space Weather Scales (Kp - Inices).. 19 Space Weather Scales (correlation of Ap to Kp Inices) Space Weather Scales (Solar Flares) Diagram: Solar Flares (aily values) Diagram: Solar Flares (evelopment).. 23 Long Distance Propagation Summary 24, 25 Diagram: Solar Cycles 22 an Glossary.. 27, 28 Disclaimer 29

4 Solar Geophysical Activity Summary 3 Introuction This monthly Solar Geophysical Activity Report summarizes solar- an geomagnetic activities observe uring the previous perio. It s purpose is to provie an overview of solar events e.g. the changing number of sunspots (on the Earth irecte visible isk of the Sun), the planetary A- an K-inices, an to give information of the Sun s activity, the evelopment of solar win, the velocity, energetic particle enhancements etc., an their influence to the geomagnetic fiel, especially to propagation mechanism for long- an short range hf raio circuits. To make it more easy to observe the evelopment an movement, significant sunspots or sunspot groups as well as solar active regions are always ientifie by the solar region number. If not otherwise state, please be avise, that all ata provie are aily maximum (not smoothe) values. Important sunspots or sunspot groups with particularly high geoeffectivity are always shown as solar images of the corresponing ay. All images of the Sun shown in this summary have been issue by Stanfor University, Stanfor, California, USA, an base on SOHO Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) 6767 A observations. All information concerning shortwave propagation conitions are base on observations of a global shortwave beacon network project (NCDXF) an selecte broacasting stations. I hope that you may fin this information helpful. If you have some further questions please on t hestiate to let me know. Steffen Hilbig DEUTSCHE WELLE Direktion Distribution Ausstrahlungskoorination Kurt Schumacher Str. 3 D Bonn TF +49 (0) FAX +49 (0) Steffen.Hilbig@w-worl.e

5 Solar Geophysical Activity Summary 4 Solar Geophysical Activity Summary for October 2006 Review of solar an geomagnetic events The perio began uner warning influence of a high spee coronal hole win stream. Through solar win spee was elevate to nearly 650 km/s. On 01 October 2006 isc was populate by small, magnetically weak sunspot groups NOAA 0912, 0913, 0914 an NOAA 0915, (s. solar image on page # 5 of this summary). The geomagnetic fiel range from quiet to unsettle an active levels an increase to minor storm levels on early 01 October Solar activity was at very low to low levels. Solar win spee range from a low of approximately 300 km/s early on 07 October 2006 to a high of about 550 km/s on late 07 October During the secon quarter of observation perio solar activity was on low levels again. Just two smaller sunspot groups, NOAA 0914 an NOAA 0915 coul be seen on the screen. The geomagnetic fiel was mostly quiet to unsettle with a few active perios at mile latitues with minor to major storm perios at higher latitues on 13 October By 15 October 2006 solar win spee hit a maximum aroun 610 km/s. During the thir quarter solar win spee continue to increase to approximately 630 km/s on 21 October The geomagnetic fiel was quiet to unsettle at mile latitues, with quiet to minor storm conitions at higher latitues. By 22 October 2006 solar win spee was still elevate but slowly ecreasing. Unsettle to active levels were observe at mile latitues. Solar activity was at low levels uring the fourth quarter of perio. The geomagnetic fiel range from quiet to active levels at mile latitues, while high latitues experience quiet to major storm conitions. Win spee continue to ecrease to a low of approximately 300 km/s miay on 27 October By the en of summary perio win spee increase again to near 600 km/s an the geomagnetic fiel remaine at similar storm levels. Flaring activity: Flaring activity was at low levels uring the whole of observation perio. Only a few low-level B-class flares were observe. Sunspots: The lowest aily sunspot value recore was zero (0) uring the perio from 11 October 2006 to 18 October The highest aily sunspot number count was of 50 spots on 23 October Solar wins: The observe solar win maximum was at 635 km/s on 21 October Significant events: No further significant solar an geomagnetic activities have been observe.

6 Solar Geophysical Activity Summary 5 Solar Geophysical Activity Summary for October 2006 Solar Image Solar isk of 01. October 2006 showing the location of sunspot groups NOAA 0912, 0913, 0914 an 0915

7 Solar Geophysical Activity Summary 6 Solar Geophysical Activity Summary for October 2006 Solar Image An almost clear Solar isc of 26 October 2006 Mess- u.kontrollzentrale

8 7 SOLAR - GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER 2006 DEUTSCHE WELLE NOAA / SEC SOLAR INDICES SFI SSN A-Inex Date

9 8 DEUTSCHE WELLE Solar Win Velocity (km/sec) SOLAR WIND DAILY VALUES FOR OCTOBER 2006 max min Date

10 9 DEUTSCHE WELLE SOLAR - WIND DEVELOPMENT DURING OCTOBER 2006 VELOCITY (km/sec) max min Date

11 10 DEUTSCHE WELLE DAILY PLANETARY A - INDICES FOR OCTOBER Ap max Ap min 70 Ap-Inices Date

12 11 DEUTSCHE WELLE PLANETARY A (max/min) DEVELOPMENT FOR OCTOBER Ap max Ap min 70 Ap-Inices Date

13 12 DAILY PLANETARY K(MAX) - INDICES FOR OCTOBER 2006 DEUTSCHE WELLE S. Hilbig K>4: storm K=4: active K<4: quiet 7 6 Inices Date

14 13 DEVELOPMENT OF PLANETARY K(MAX) - INDICES FOR OCTOBER 2006 DEUTSCHE WELLE Kp-Inices 7 Kp-INDICES Date

15 14 GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY OVERVIEW FOR OCTOBER 2006 DEUTSCHE WELLE major - severe storm minor storm active quiet - unsettle 7 Geomag. Events Date

16 Solar Geophysical Activity Summary 15 Solar Geophysical Activity Summary for October 2006 Northern Auroral Region Northern Auroral Oval of 01. October :00 UTC

17 Solar Geophysical Activity Summary 16 Solar Geophysical Activity Summary for October 2006 Northern Auroral Region Northern Auroral Oval of 13. October 2006

18 Solar Geophysical Activity Summary 17 Image of the Northern Polar Auroral Oval During intensive geomagnetic isturbance, the geomagnetic fiel structure is eeply affecte by high-energy particles release by the Sun. The plots of Northern Polar Auroral Oval estimate the visibility of activity from any location of the northern hemisphere. Images are create to show the potential auroral luminosity from the current solar win stream conitions an are estine to provie an estimate of the visibility of auroral activity. The moel computes the estimate brightness of auroral activity an plots this on maps as a soli bright colour that varies: Colour green brown.. orange re Levels of activity NIL - low low - moerate moerate - high The brighter the colour, the more intense the activity. Images an maps of the Polar Auroral Oval provie are base on NOAA ata an have been issue by STD Solar Terrestrial Dispatch.

19 Solar Geophysical Activity Summary 18 Space Weather Scales Ap - Inex Category Descriptor 0-7 Quiet 8-15 Unsettle Active Minor Storm Major Storm Severe Storm Ap-Inices The geomagnetic Ap Inex escribes the activity of the geomagnetic fiel in a given time.

20 Solar Geophysical Activity Summary 19 Space Weather Scales Planetary K Inices (Kp); escribe geomagnetic storm levels Category Effects 0-1 Kp-Inex values of 0 an 1 represent Inactive to Very Quiet magnetic conitions an imply very goo to goo hf raio signal propagation conitions. 2-4 Represent Quiet to Unsettle an Active magnetic conitions an generally correspon to less-impressive hf raio propagation conitions. 5 Represent Minor Storm conitions an are usually associate with fair to poor propagation for many hf paths. 6 Generally represents Major Storm conitions an are almost always associate with poor hf raio propagation conitions. 7 Represents Severe Storm conitions an are often accompanie by hf raio blackout conitions lasting from minutes to < 6 hours, particularly over high latitues. 8-9 Represents Very Severe Storm to Extreme Severe Storm conitions an are rarely encountere (except uring exceptional perios of solar activity). Kp Inices of values aroun 8 9 most often prouce hf raio blackouts for perios lasting in excess of 6 to >10 hours, epening upon intensity of the solar event. Kp-Inices Planetary K - Inex NOAA Geomagnetic storm levels * Inices Descriptor Values 0 Inactive G0 1 Very quiet G0 2 Quiet G0 3 Unsettle G0 4 Active G0 5 Minor storm G1 6 Major storm G2 7 Severe storm G3 8 Very severe storm G4 9 Extremely severe storm G5 * broacast as voice announcements by WWV an WWVH

21 Solar Geophysical Activity Summary 20 Space Weather Scales Correlation of Kp Inices to Ap Inices Correlation Kp - Inices Ap - Inices Kp-Inices / Ap-Inices

22 Solar Geophysical Activity Summary 21 Space Weather Scales Solar Flares Solar flares are classifie accoring their x-ray brightness in the wavelength range 1 to 8 Ångstrøms. Flare Category Peak (W/m²) between 1 an 8 Ångstrøms Descriptor X - class 1.0 x 10E-4 X-class flares are big. They are major events that can trigger planet-wie raio blackouts an long-lasting raiation storms. M class 1.0 x 10E-5 M-class flares are meium-size events. They generally cause brief raio blackouts that effect Earth s high latitue regions. C class 1.0 x 10E-6 C-class flares are small events with only few noticeable consequences on Earth. B class 1.0 x 10E-7 B-class flares are very small events with no noticeable consequences on Earth. A class 1.0 x 10E-8 A-class flares are extreme small events with no noticeable consequences on Earth. Classification of solar flares Solar Flares A solar flare is an explosion on the Sun that happens when high energy store in twiste magnetic fiels (usually above sunspots or sunspot areas) is suenly release. Flares prouce a burst of raiation across the entire electromagnetic spectrum from raio waves to x-rays an gamma-rays an has major, minor, small or no consequences to hf propagation. Flares are classifie accoring to the table. Mess- u. Empfangsstation

23 22 DEUTSCHE WELLE DAILY NUMBER AND CATEGORY OF FLARES FOR OCTOBER X-flares M-flares C-flares Category an Number of Flares Date

24 23 DEUTSCHE WELLE Class an Number of Flares SOLAR FLARES - DEVELOPMENT DURING OCTOBER 2006 X-flares M-flares C-flares Date

25 Solar Geophysical Activity Summary 24 DEUTSCHE WELLE Date Solar Activity (Protons) Geomagnetic Fiel (Status) Recent propagation conitions for October 2006 accoring to observations of a global HF beacon network an selecte broacasting stations obtaine by means of DEUTSCHE WELLE s receiving station Bockhacken Remarks 045 NE 090 E 135 SE Great Circle Paths* 01. quiet active warning poor fair poor fair fair - goo fair fair - poor poor 02. quiet quiet - unsett fair goo fair goo fair - goo fair -goo fair - poor poor 03. quiet quiet - unsett fair fair - goo fair fair - goo fair fair - poor poor poor 04. quiet quiet fair fair - goo fair goo fair fair fair fair - poor 05. quiet quiet fair - goo goo fair goo fair goo fair fair - poor 06. quiet quiet fair fair - goo fair - goo goo fair - goo goo fair fair - poor 07. quiet quiet fair fair - goo fair fair - goo fair fair - goo fair fair 08. quiet quiet poor - fair fair fair goo fair fair fair poor - fair 09. quiet quiet fair fair - goo fair fair - goo fair fair - goo fair - goo fair 10. quiet quiet poor - fair fair fair - poor fair - goo fair fair - goo goo fair 11. quiet quiet fair fair - goo fair fair - goo fair fair - goo fair - goo fair 12. quiet quiet fair fair - goo fair fair fair fair fair - goo fair - goo 13. quiet active warning fair - goo fair fair fair - goo fair fair fair fair 14. very quiet active warning n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. 15. quiet quiet n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. 180 S 225 SW 270 W 315 NW 360 N * irections as from location of remote controlle Receiving Station Bockhacken (lat. 51N06.40, long 07E16.45)

26 Solar Geophysical Activity Summary 25 DEUTSCHE WELLE Mess- u.kontrollzentrale Recent propagation conitions for October 2006 accoring to observations of a global HF beacon network an selecte broacasting stations taken by means of DEUTSCHE WELLE s receiving station Bockhacken Date Solar Activity (Protons) Geomagnetic Fiel (Status) Remarks 045 NE 090 E 135 SE Great Circle Paths* 180 S 225 SW 270 W 315 NW 360 N very quiet quiet n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. quiet quiet n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. quiet active n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. quiet active n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. quiet minor warning n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. quiet quiet n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. quiet quiet n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. quiet quiet n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. quiet quiet n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. quiet quiet n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o quiet quiet n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. quiet active warning n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. quiet active warning n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. quiet active warning n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. quiet quiet n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. quiet quiet n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. n.o. * Directions as from location of remote controlle receiving station Bockhacken (lat 51N06.40, long 07E16.46) D

27 DEVELOPMENT OF SOLAR CYCLES 22 an 23 CYCLE 22 CYCLE 23 DEUTSCHE WELLE October 2006

28 Solar Geophysical Activity Summary 27 Glossary of Solar Terms Ap Inex: The geomagnetic Ap-Inex escribes the activity of the geomagnetic fiel in a given time. It can vary up to values aroun 100. During very severe geomagnetic storms it can reach values up to 200 an very occasionally more. Aurora: A sporatic, faint visual phenomenon (Polar Lights, Aurorae Borealis, Aurorae Australis), associate with high geomagnetic activity that occurs mainly in the high latitue night skies of the northern an southern hemisphere. Auroral Oval: An elliptical ban aroun each geomagnetic pole ranging from about 75 egrees magnetic latitue to about 65 egrees magnetic latitue uner average magnetic conitions. It is the area of those locations of the maximum occurrence of auroras an wiens to both higher an lower latitues uring the expansion phases of magnetic substorms. Geomagnetic Activity: Natural variations in the geomagnetic fiel, classifie into: quiet, unsettle, active an geomagnetic storm levels. There are two inices that are use to etermine the level of geomagnetic activity: the Ap-inex an the Kp-inex. Geomagnetic Storm: A worlwie isturbance of Earth s magnetic fiel (magnetosphere), inucte by irect connection to the Sun s interplanetary magnetic fiel (IMF), istinct with the arrival at Earth of a shock front of the solar win, which compresses the front of the magnetosphere. A storm occurs when: Ap > (minor storm), Ap (major storm), Ap (severe storm). Ionospheric Storm: A isturbance of the ionosphere (F-layer), which occurs in connection with geomagnetic activity, usually causing high absorption of hf raio signals. Kp Inex: The Kp-Inex escribes geomagnetic activity an storm levels. This planetary 3 hour range inex Kp is an inex taken from 13 geomagnetic observatories between 44 egrees an 60 egrees northern or southern geomagnetic latitue an is esigne to measure solar particles raiation by its magnetic effects. The scale is 0 9. Solar Activity: Transient perturbations of the solar atmosphere as measure by enhance x-ray emissions of the sun. Solar Flares: Solar Flares are tremenous explosions on the Sun s surface. They occur in vicinity of sunspots an usually along the iviing line between areas of opposite fiels. Flares release many forms of energy (s. Solar Win). Solar Flux (SFl): The solar flux is use as the basic inicator of solar activity an to etermine the level of raiation being receive from the sun. The solar flux is measure in solar flux units (SFU) an is the amount of raio noise or flux that is emitte at a frequency of 2800 MHz (10.7 cm). The solar flux is closely relate to the amount of ionization an hence the electron concentration in the F-region of the ionosphere. As a result it gives a goo inication of conitions especially for long istance raio communication on hf circuits. Solar Win: A stream of charge particles an magnetic fiels emanating from the sun. Uner unisturbe conitions this wins velocity is measure with approximately 250 to 450 kilometers per secon. In cases of severe or extreme isturbance its tremenous velocity is measure with > km/s. Mess- u.kontrollzentrale

29 Solar Geophysical Activity Summary 28 Glossary of Solar Terms Sunspots: Areas seen as ark spots, in contrast with it surrounings on the Suns surface. Sunspots are areas with extreme concentrations of energy (magnetic flux). Sunspot Number (SSN): The sunspot number summarizes the number of sunspots to be seen on the (Earth irecte) visible isc of the Suns surface an gives an inex of sunspot activity (R). Suen Ionospheric Disturbance (SID): One of the ifferent hf raio propagation anomalies ue to ionospheric changes resulting from solar activities. Anomalies inclue short wave faes (or faeouts), enhancements of atmospherics, phase shifts of electromagnetic raio waves, absorptions, cosmic noise etc. Solar Cycle or Sunspot Cycle: The approximately 11-year quasi perioic variation in the sunspot number. (see iagram of solar cycles 22 an 23). Space Weather: Describes the conitions in space that effect Earth an its technological systems. It is a consequence of the behavior of the Sun, the nature of Earth s magnetic fiel an atmosphere, an our location in the solar system. Mess- u.kontrollzentrale

30 Solar Geophysical Activity Summary 29 Disclaimer This Solar Geophysical Activity an Propagation Summary has been prepare an compile by Steffen Hilbig, DEUTSCHE WELLE, Bonn, Germany. Results are base on own observations an valuable ata provie by ifferent services an institutions as mentione below. I herewith reserve the rights not to be responsible for completeness an quality of the information. Liability claims regaring amage cause by the use of any information given in this summary will therefore be rejecte. SEC, US Space Weather Environment Services Center, Bouler, Colorao, USA AGU, American Geophysical Union, Washington, DC, USA WWV, National Bureau of Stanars, Fort Collins, Colorao, USA NCDXF/IARU Northern California International Beacon Transmission Network IonoProbe, Real Time Space Weather Monitor Joint USAF/NOAA, Propagation Bulletin Aurora-Beacon DK0WCY, Scheggerott, Germany NOAA, National Oceanic an Atmospheric Aministration, Bouler, Colorao, USA SIDC, Solar Influence Data Analysis Center, RWC, Belgium IPS Raio & Space Services, Haymarket, NSW, Australia Max Planck Institut für Aeronomie, Linau, Germany STD, Solar Terrestrial Dispatch Real Time Propagation Monitor, SM5AJV, Stockholm, Sween an others.

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