A LOOK AT PROPAGATION FOR THE 2017/2018 CONTEST SEASON

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1 A LOOK AT PROPAGATION FOR THE 2017/2018 CONTEST SEASON Frank Donovan W3LPL Carl Luetzelschwab K9LA 1

2 THANKS TO THE WWROF FOR SPONSORING THIS WEBINAR wwrof.org And thanks to Ken K4ZW for facilitating this Webinar 2

3 AGENDA Cycle 24, Cycle 25, solar minimums Disturbances to propagation K9LA Mitigation for disturbances Band-by-band summary DX contest strategies as Cycle 24 declines K4ZW s XW dilemma W3LPL K9LA 3

4 K9LA 4

5 CYCLE 24 STATUS Smallest in our lifetimes We still enjoyed the short second peak of Cycle 24 Even had 6m F2 openings K9LA Still have about 2 years to solar minimum 5

6 OUR PREDICTION FOR CYCLE 25 3 periods of big solar cycles 2 periods of small solar cycles K9LA It appears that we re entering another period of small cycles Solar scientists so far are in agreement 6

7 DURATION OF SOLAR MINIMUM The longer we re at solar minimum, the smaller the next cycle K9LA Conversely, the smaller the cycle, the longer the solar minimum preceding that cycle 7

8 WE VE BEEN SPOILED Most of our solar minimums were about 2 years... Except for the minimum prior to Cycle 24 X Almost 5 years! K9LA We may be in for another long solar minimum since Cycle 25 is expected to be small 8

DISTURBANCES THE BIG PICTURE R = Radio blackout S = Solar radiation storm X-ray radiation from M or X class solar flare can result in more absorption on the daylight side of the Earth G = Geomagnetic

9 DISTURBANCES THE BIG PICTURE R = Radio blackout S = Solar radiation storm X-ray radiation from M or X class solar flare can result in more absorption on the daylight side of the Earth G = Geomagnetic storm Elevated K indices can decrease F region MUFs at high and mid latitudes both day and night but can enhance low latitude ionization Protons from M or X class solar flare can result in more absorption in the polar cap X X marks the spot the North magnetic pole G = Geomagnetic storm Elevated K indices can cause increased auroral ionization (more absorption and VHF aurora) 9

10 GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY VS SOLAR CYCLE Ap highest (most disturbed) at solar max and especially during the declining phase Ap lowest (quietest) at solar min and initial ascent K9LA Frank will have more on this 10

11 MITIGATION TO DISTURBANCES Geomagnetic storms (most of the time a depleted F2 region) Cause: CMEs (most prevalent at solar max) and coronal holes (declining phase) Mitigation: QSY to lower freqs, look for enhanced low latitude paths, look for skewed paths on the lower bands Solar radiation storms (energetic protons into the polar cap) Cause: M and X-Class solar flares (most prevalent at solar max) Mitigation: avoid polar paths, look other way around (long vs short path) Radio blackouts (radiation at X-ray wavelengths) Cause: M and X-Class solar flares (most prevalent at solar max) Mitigation: QSY to higher freqs (less loss & possible enhancement), look for paths in darkness 11

12 W3LPL 12

13 ADAPTING YOUR DX CONTEST STRATEGIES TO THE STEADILY DECLINING SOLAR CYCLE Spotless days are now much more frequent Probably more than 100 spotless days this year Many more spotless days during the next five years Solar flux will continue its decline to much lower levels 60s and 70s will be increasingly common for at least five years Frequent geomagnetic disturbances until Solar Minimum at least until the onset of solar minimum in about 2019 Mostly driven by frequent -- often intense -- coronal hole activity Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) will be much less frequent Geomagnetic disturbances will be much less frequent after solar minimum in about

MAJOR IMPROVEMENT IN 160 METER WORLDWIDE PROPAGATION Stronger DX signals More reliable DX openings especially to Europe and Japan Lower absorption During increasingly common periods of less intense

14 MAJOR IMPROVEMENT IN 160 METER WORLDWIDE PROPAGATION Stronger DX signals More reliable DX openings especially to Europe and Japan Lower absorption During increasingly common periods of less intense geomagnetic activity Especially for a few years after solar minimum during about Less daytime D layer absorption DX openings begin just before sunset and continue just after sunrise Less intense night time E layer absorption as the E layer MUF drops 14

15 MAJOR IMPROVEMENT IN 160 METER WORLDWIDE PROPAGATION Continuous openings to Europe, Mid-east and north Africa Z Frequent strong JA openings at sunrise mid-nov to mid-feb Z More frequent direct short path polar opening to central Asia Z More crowded band conditions Especially when there is no strong 40 and 80 meter propagation to Europe 15

16 SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED 80 METER WORLDWIDE PROPAGATION Stronger DX signals Much more reliable DX openings especially to Europe and Japan Consistently low absorption During increasingly common periods of less intense geomagnetic activity Especially for a few years after solar minimum during about Less daytime D layer absorption DX openings begin well before sunset and continue well after sunrise 16

17 SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED 80 METER WORLDWIDE PROPAGATION Continuous east coast USA openings to Europe, Mid-east and north Africa Z Regular strong east coast USA to JA openings at sunrise mid-nov to late Feb Z Direct short path polar opening to central Asia will be much more frequent Z Much more crowded band conditions Especially when there is no strong 40 meter propagation to Europe 17

18 NEARLY 24 HOUR WORLDWIDE 40 METER PROPAGATION Much less daytime D layer absorption Nearly 24 hour DX openings during CQWW CW in late November DX openings to Europe will often begin before east coast USA mid-afternoon Especially from mid-november through late February But DX openings to Europe will often end shortly after sunset Especially from mid-november through late February Direct short path to Europe often opens again at European sunrise Trans-polar propagation will become much less frequent East coast US to East Asia propagation will often be via the South West skew path Strong direct short path often opens at east coast sunrise 18

19 NEARLY 24 HOUR WORLDWIDE 40 METER PROPAGATION Europe, Mid-East and north Africa propagation Activity QSYs to 40 meters before mid-afternoon ~1930Z Don t miss the strong mid-afternoon/evening openings Z Propagation often fades/fails a few hours after sunset Z Strong openings usually resume at sunrise in Europe ~ Z Japan, Far East and Central Asia propagation Brief direct short path opening at JA sunset Z Weak skew path opening at about 240º azimuth ~ Z Strongest short path JA opening from the east coast ~ Z Strong long path Asia signals at 150º azimuth Z VK/ZL and southeast Asia long path at º azimuth Z Southeast and central Asia long path at ~240º azimuth ~ Z 19

20 SHORTER DURATION WORLDWIDE 20 METER PROPAGATION Mostly a daytime DX band from November to late February All DX propagation usually ends well before midnight on the east coast Especially from mid-november through late February DX openings to Europe usually begin about an hour before east coast sunrise But DX openings to Europe usually end shortly after sunset in Europe Especially from mid-november through late February Much shorter duration east coast USA propagation to east and central Asia US to central and east Asia propagation will often be via the South West skew path Especially from Z at 240 degrees azimuth 20

21 SHORTER DURATION WORLDWIDE 20 METER PROPAGATION All DX propagation usually ends well before midnight Sporadic, weak night time Africa & south Pacific openings ~0300Z Z Europe, Mid-East and north Africa propagation from before east coast USA sunrise until mid-afternoon ~ Z the opening is sometimes delayed until after sunrise the opening ends much earlier in the afternoon than in recent years Japan, Far East and central Asia propagation short evening short path opening morning short path opening both openings are much shorter than in recent years South Asia and Mid-East morning long path VK, ZL and south Pacific mid-afternoon long path Z Z Z Z 21

22 MUCH SHORTER DURATION WORLDWIDE 15 METER PROPAGATION Usually a daytime only DX band from November to late February All DX propagation usually ends shortly after sunset on the east coast Especially from mid-november through late February DX openings to Europe usually begin about an hour after east coast sunrise But DX openings to Europe usually end shortly before sunset in Europe Especially from mid-november through late February Very short duration east coast USA propagation to east and central Asia Sometimes via the long path at 150 degrees azimuth 22

23 MUCH SHORTER DURATION WORLDWIDE 15 METER PROPAGATION Europe, Mid-East and north Africa propagation from about an hour after our sunrise until early afternoon Z shorter openings than we ve enjoyed in recent years Japan and Far East propagation weak unreliable late afternoon short path opening Z sometimes only via long path to 150 degrees azimuth Z much shorter openings than we ve enjoyed in recent years 15M usually closes shortly after our sunset ~2200Z always stays closed all night 23

24 NO LONGER A WORLDWIDE DX BAND 10 METER PROPAGATION Strictly a daytime only DX band All DX propagation ends before sunset There are no short path DX openings to Europe There are weak scatter openings at 140 degrees azimuth But DX openings to Europe usually end shortly before sunset in Europe Especially from mid-november through late February There are no short path DX openings to Asia Rare very weak signal scatter openings to east Asia at 230 degrees azimuth 24

25 NO LONGER A WORLDWIDE DX BAND 10 METER PROPAGATION South America, Caribbean and Central America PY and LU activity has increased significantly in recent years usually opens about an hour after our sunrise ~1300Z opening can fade for an hour or two, then return much stronger in the afternoon usually closes about an hour before our sunset ~2100Z Europe and north Africa very weak signals on the SE skew path at º azimuth ~ Z VK/ZL and South Pacific A fairly reliable weak signal opening ~ Z Japan, North Pacific and Far East rare morning weak signal long path at 150º azimuth ~ Z rare evening very weak signal skew path º azimuth Z 25

26 DX CONTEST STRATEGIES FOR DECLINING LOW SOLAR ACTIVITY High antennas are much more important during solar minimum Improve your low band transmitting and receiving antennas! Start every DX contest on 40 meters The European opening begins before mid-afternoon the strong European opening often ends a few hours after sunset Oct/Nov at solar min thanks N2IC 26

27 DX CONTEST STRATEGIES FOR DECLINING LOW SOLAR ACTIVITY Capitalize on improved 160 and 80M propagation Z especially important when 40 meters is not strongly open to Europe Strong 40 meter opening after sunrise in Europe 160, 80 and 40 meter openings to VK, ZL and JA 20M European opening starts before sunrise 15M European opening starts about an hour after sunrise 10 meters opens primarily to the south Strong 40M afternoon/evening openings to Europe 20 meter evening openings to Japan Z Z Z Z Z Z Z 27

28 K9LA 28

K4ZW S DXPEDITIONS TO XW XW4ZW January 23-30, 2015 159 NA on 80m, 8 NA on 160m, 1947 total on 80m and 160m XW4ZW January 16-22, 2016 49 NA on 80m,

29 K4ZW S DXPEDITIONS TO XW XW4ZW January 23-30, NA on 80m, 8 NA on 160m, 1947 total on 80m and 160m XW4ZW January 16-22, NA on 80m, 11 NA on 160m, 987 total on 80m and 160m XW4ZW January 9-15, NA on 80m, 1 NA on 160m, 1233 total on 80m and 160m XW to NA is a tough path 29

K4ZW S OBSERVATIONS From USAF Handbook of Geophysics (1960) Ken says it s pretty quiet to the south (long path) towards NA NA signals on 80m are often right at the noise XW4ZW area of thunderstorms

30 K4ZW S OBSERVATIONS From USAF Handbook of Geophysics (1960) Ken says it s pretty quiet to the south (long path) towards NA NA signals on 80m are often right at the noise XW4ZW area of thunderstorms Ken says he is being heard much better than he is hearing What s the problem? If we believe the ITU Radio Noise document, XW4ZW s noise on 80m is about 20 db worse than noise at W1 that could contribute to 30 non-reciprocity

31 MORE BEER MONEY AND A DECK OF CARDS? When the noise is in the same direction as your target location, there s not much you can do Other possible RF causes Charly HSØZCW observes that short path signal strengths from HS on 20m are stronger in EU and NA than the other way The author of a NATO report on the ionosphere says most paths are nonreciprocal in signal strength due to polarization mismatch Conclusion: For his next trip, Ken may have a lot of extra time for vices 31

32 SWEEPSTAKES Although we talked about DX contests, propagation for Sweepstakes and other forthcoming contests will be similar Higher bands not too productive Lower bands best All of this could also apply for the next 2-5 years Depends on the duration of the next solar minimum 32

33 Q&A 33

How to Adapt Your DX Contest Strategies for Low Solar Activity

How to Adapt Your DX Contest Strategies for Low Solar Activity How to Adapt Your DX Contest Strategies for Low Solar Activity Frank Donovan W3LPL Very Low Solar Activity through 2021 solar activity should