Large Optic Capability, Impact on the Global Market. by Richard Freeman

Transcription

1 Large Optic Capability, Impact on the Global Market by Richard Freeman

2 Large Optic Capability, Impact on the Global Market

3 Large Optic Capability, Impact on the Global Market Significant!!

4 The Development of the Market since 2000 Year 2000 The market for Large Optics was limited

5 What is a Large Optic? For the purposes of this presentation a large optic is one with a larger diameter than 600mm

6 What is a Large Optic? Conclusion: In Large Optics: SIZE MATTERS!

7 In 1847 Telescopes had ONE Large Mirror The Project was the 72 inch Birr Telescope

8 In 2010 Telescopes require approx1150 Large E-ELT (Once Was Larger!) Optics 42 Metre diameter Primary Mirror 1000 approx hexagonal segments each 1.6metres (point to point)

9 From the TMT Presentation Yesterday TMT segment production requirements are demanding good, quick and cheap

10 Advice to a young salesman

11 Advice to a young salesman Submit your VERY BEST Prices

12 Advice to a young salesman Submit your VERY BEST Prices you can always come down!

13 The Reference Document OpTIC Glyndwr Ltd commissioned a report on the Global Large Optics Market March 2010 The report concludes that: We estimate a market requirement in excess of 630 million over the period to 2020

14 The Reference Document Further reading concludes that this refers to the immediate opportunity involving simply three close and accessible market opportunities for OpTIC Glyndwr not the GLOBAL MARKET The Global market is clearly many times the size of the one reported on in the report I will speculate that the global market is possibly a factor of between x 5 and x 10 greater

15 The Reference Document Further reading concludes that this refers to the immediate opportunity involving simply three close and accessible market opportunities for OpTIC Glyndwr not the GLOBAL MARKET The Global market is clearly many times the size of the one reported on in the report I will speculate that the global market is a factor of between x 5 and x 10 greater Let me try to guide you through that

16 At this Conference we have heard about.. 1. Large Telescopes 2. Extremely Large Telescopes 3. High Laser Damage Threshold Optics 4. Laser Fusion Optics 5. Space Optics 6. Solar collectors

17 At this Conference we have heard about.. But how about?: 1. Solar Telescopes 2. X-Ray Telescope Optics and mandrels 3. Production requirements for Laser Fusion Optics 4. Defence Optics 5. Surveillance Optics (for International Rescue etc) 6. The GLOBAL MARKET!

18 A few moments about X-ray telescopes.. Unique niche in astronomy, enable understanding of: Distribution of hot gas between galaxies. Physics of supernova remnant explosions. Many other important issues Existing Telescopes: NEWTON, CHANDRA, Observation of ever shorter wavelength radiations requires: Improved Form (<100nm PV) Improved Texture (<0.3nm rms) Chubu University: ASTRO-H Project

19 A few moments about X-ray telescopes.. A large X-ray mandrel may have many thousands of optical surfaces As a guide: IXO requires 15,000 optical surfaces and the total area of precision optical surface exceeds that of E-ELT

20 A few moments about X-ray telescopes.. An alternative: The direct polishing of the shells themselves The shell precision polished on the inside surface

21 A few moments about X-ray telescopes.. Gen-X International X-ray Observatory

22 A few more moments on Space Optics. For the UK - Space has been a good market for several years: 1. The UK has its own UK Space Agency 2. The Space Market for the UK has been growing at 10% per year for a decade 3. The market has ridden the current recession 4. Investment and interest is strong 5. The UK is Internationally competitive in this market

23 A few more moments on Space Optics. SPICA PLATO

24 A few more moments on Space Optics. The NASA mirror technology roadmap 2006: Enabling Future Space Telescopes This roadmap concludes that: Independent of science priority, mirrors are a fundamental enabling technology for future space-based telescopes ranging from UV/OIR to Far-IR/Sub-MM. As the astronomy community looks ahead to the next decade, it is important that the engineering community continue to develop the tools needed to push telescope technology forward. To do this, a sustained, dedicated, and cross-disciplinary investment program in mirror technology development is required. This program should develop methods to solve the most significant mirror technical challenge for potential future space telescopes: how to fabricate and flight-qualify low-cost high-quality large-aperture mirrors

25 Examples of Current Laser Projects and Optics NIF Project Megajoule

26 Summary of Current Laser Projects and Optics Note: The global nature of the opportunity

27 But this is a Global Market.. LAMOST China Large Sky Area Multi- Object Fiber Spectroscopic Telescope NLST India National Large Solar Telescope

28 But this is a Global Market.. The Market is: Attracting the attention of low cost economies There are signs that the business will become more mobile There is a shortage of capacity In the short term it appears that the surging market demand will lead to good business for its participants for some years Over time the market will get increasingly competitive

29 Conclusions The Market is: Global Large and growing very fast There is for sure too little global capacity currently There will be new players It will become increasingly competitive

30 Large Optic Capability, Impact on the Global Market As I said, the Impact will be:

31 Large Optic Capability, Impact on the Global Market As I said, the Impact will be: Significant!!