Co-integration and causality between GDP, employment and energy consumption: Empirical evidence on the WAEMU countries

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Co-integration and causality between GDP, employment and energy consumption: Empirical evidence on the WAEMU countries"

Transcription

1 Issues n Busness Managemen and Economcs Vol.2 (11), pp , ovember 214 Avalable onlne a hp:// hp://dx.do.org/ /ibme Journal Issues ISS X Orgnal Research Arcle Co-negraon and causaly beween GDP, employmen and energy consumpon: Emprcal evdence on he WAEMU counres Acceped 11h ovember, 214 Boukary Ouédraogo 1 * and Mamoudou Hassane 2 1CEDRES, Unversé Ouaga 2, Burkna Faso. 2Deparmen of Economcs, Unversy Abdou Moumoun of amey, ger. *Correspondng Auhor E-mal: boukary.ouedraogo@unv-ouaga.bf Tel.: Ths arcle uses daa from he Wes Afrcan Economc and Moneary Unons (WAEMU) zone for he perod o examne he causal relaonshps beween GDP per employee and energy consumpon on one hand, and he relaonshp beween employmen and energy on he oher hand. The mporance of energy consumpon n he WAEMU zone s derved from he nadequacy of energecal resources compared wh needs of economc acves. Therefore, for he robusness of he emprcal resuls, we used Phllps-Perron ess o deermne he level of negraon of varables. The resuls drawn from hese ess led o he concluson ha he seres are saonary wh he excepon of GDP per employmen whch s negraed n order 1. The Hsao s Granger causaly mehod show he exsence of a one-way relaonshp beween GDP per employee on one hand, and beween energy consumpon and he varables employmen and consumpon of energy on he oher hand. Ths s a good reference for polcy makers o well defne he energy sraeges of he WAEMU zone. JEL Classfcaon: C13, C5, C52, E23, E24, Q41, Key words: Energy, GDP, Employmen, Causaly, Co-negraon, WAEMU ITRODUCTIO Energy use n developng counres s ncreasng rapdly. The facors leadng o hs rapd ncrease of energy use nclude populaon growh, economc growh, and urbanzaon. Generally, energy ncludng elecrcy s denfed as he one playng a sgnfcan role n economc developmen, no only because ncreases he producvy of capal, labor and oher facors of producon, bu also because s greaer consumpon, parcularly commercal energy s synonymous wh hgh economc saus of a counry. Many sudes have shown ha energy consumpon s correlaed wh economc growh hence, for example, counres wh a hgher per capa GDP were found o have hgh energy consumpon per capa (Burney, 1995; Anderson 1973; Samolds and Mrolopulos, 1984; Gowen, 1987). Does economc developmen drve o a greaer energy consumpon?or s energy self a smulus for economc developmen? These quesons have led and movaed curosy and neres amongs economss and polcy analyss over he pas decade o sudy he drecon of causaly beween energy consumpon and economc varables such as GDP, ncome, employmen or energy prces (an and Murray, 199; Glaze and Lee, 1997; Cheng and La, 1997; Mash and Mash, 1997; Asafu-Adaye, 2; Yang, 2).Ths s because he drecon of causaly has sgnfcan polcy mplcaons. For example, he concluson of a undreconal causaly runnng from energy consumpon o GDP means an energy dependen economy such ha energy s a smulus for he growh of GDP whch mples ha he lack of energy may negavely affec economc growh or may cause poor economc performance. However, connued causaly runnng from

2 Issues Bus. Manag. Econ. 194 GDP o energy consumpon means a less energy dependen economy such as energy conservaon polces (elecrcy raonng) can be mplemened wh lle or no deleerous effec on he level of economc acvy (GDP). If here s no causaly beween energy consumpon and GDP known as he assumpons of neuraly (Yu and Cho,1985), mples ha energy consumpon s no correlaed wh GDP and as such, polces for energy conservaon can be pursued whou compromsng he economy. However, he drecon of causaly beween energy consumpon and economc varables remans emprcally elusve and conroversal across me, counres and mehodologes. For example, usng he Hsao Granger causaly, Cheng and La (1997) repored a connuous causaly runnng from GDP o energy consumpon n Tawan usng daa from 1954 o Yang (2) used daa from 1954 o 1997 and Granger-causaly echnques for he same counry (Tawan) and obaned a b- dreconal causaly beween energy consumpon and GDP. Glazure and Lee s work (1997) n Souh Korea and Sngapore used error correcon models and co-negraon and repored a b-dreconal causaly beween GDP and energy consumpon n he counres suded. However, connuous causaly runnng from energy consumpon o GDP and no causaly were repored respecvely for Sngapore and Souh Korea when he sandard mehod of Granger -causaly was used. Mash and Mash (1997) repored ha real ncome, energy consumpon and energy prces were only neracve n he causal chan n Korea and Tawan usng error correcon and co- negraon mehods. Asafu-Adaye s work (2) on he causaly beween energy consumpon, energy prces and ncome n Inda, Indonesa, Thaland and he Phlppnes used co-negraon and elecronc counermeasuremen echnques ha produced conroversal resuls. A b-dreconal Granger-causaly beween energy consumpon and ncome was repored for he Phlppnes and Thaland, and a Granger s connued causaly workng from energy consumpon o ncome was repored for Inda and Indonesa. Oher researchers (Jumbe, 24) n Malaw who used sandard echnques of model error correcon and Granger-causaly found a b-dreconal causaly beween elecrcy consumpon (kwh) and GDP, bu a connued causaly workng from non-agrculural GDP o KWH. However, was repored ha energy prces, energy consumpon and ncome are muually correlaed n Thaland and he Phlppnes. Despe varaons n emprcal resuls, hese sudes demonsrae he exsence of a causaly relaonshp beween energy consumpon and economc varables. Excep sudes on supply and demand for energy companes n Sub-Saharan Afrcan (SSA) counres, here s generally lle emprcal research publshed on causaly beween energy consumpon and economc varables repored for SSA counres (Munasnghe, 198; Abdel- Khalek, 1988). The frs conrbuon on he causaly beween energy consumpon and economc varables for hese Afrcan counres was carred ou by Jumbe (24) n Malaw. Kane (29) uses he vecor error correcon model (ECM) and daa from heerogeneous non-saonary panel o nvesgae he relaonshp beween energy demand and economc growh n he WAEMU regon n order o deermne he explanaory varables of energy nensy n gross domesc produc. Anoher sudy analyzed he meanng of causaly beween economc growh and energy consumpon, bu also he naure of he relaonshp beween energy sources for a panel of four WAEMU counres: Benn, Coe d' Ivore, Senegal and Togo over he perod of 197 o 25 (Okey, 21). Oher sudes have also been carred ou ndvdually on some WAEMU and Sub-Saharan Afrcan counres (Ivory Coas, Mal and Congo) o undersand he causaly beween economc growh and energy consumpon (Tmé, 21) consumpon growh (Sacko, 24; Ambapour and Massamba, 25; Tmé, 21). These sudes have argeed some specfc sources of energy such as elecrcy, peroleum producs and have used panel daa for esmaes. The specfcy of hs sudy compared o hose already made on WAEMU les on he use of aggregaed daa (ncludng all sources of energy expressed n ons of ol equvalen) n all WAEMU counres. The obecve of hs sudy s o examne he conegraon and he meanng of causaly beween energy consumpon, employmen and GDP by usng he echnques of error correcon and co-negraon on daa n WAEMU counres. Ths s manly o show ha he ncreased level of acvy (GDP) and herefore he fgh agans unemploymen n hs area s closely lnked o energy consumpon. The focus s specfcally: 1. To check he exsence of a relaonshp beween energy consumpon and economc growh; 2. To deermne he drecon of causaly beween hese varables n order o make suggesons on how energy ssues could be addressed n he fuure n he WAEMU zone. 3. To provde opmal economc and energy polces for member counres of he WAEMU zone. These research obecves answer he followng research queson: Is here a long-erm relaonshp beween energy consumpon and ncreasng level of economc acvy n he WAEMU zone? Whch naurally leads us o he hypohess: here s a susanable lnk beween energy consumpon and economc growh n he WAEMU zone. MODEL AALYSIS AD THE METHODOLOGY Here we adop he Granger causaly es for s smplcy and s suably crera for small samples n appled economcs. Indeed, he works repored by Gulkey Salem

3 Ouédraogo and Hassane 195 (1982) and Geweke e al. (1983) showed ha he applcaon of he Mone Carlo mehod advocaes he Granger causaly es among alernave echnques. Thus, he Granger causaly es poses ha a varable causes o Granger f he predcon of he curren value s enhanced by he use of lagged values. The model In modelng he funcon of energy consumpon and economc growh varable (or he fgh agans unemploymen) n prevous sudes, all varables consdered were expressed n naural logarhm. Therefore, he equaon lnkng economc growh (or unemploymen) and he energy consumpon s specfed as auoregressve model. Consderng Y as GDP per employee (GDPE) and x s he varable energy consumpon (EC) hus: log y = f (logx) s auoregressve general form becomes: p log y log y e1 (1 log x log x e (2) 2 where L s he delay operaor, L= d-1 s he dfference operaor wh he frs dfference gven by: ( 1 y y y 1 By specfyng he equaon: y x z 1 (3) z s he saonary resdue of he co-negraon equaon The deermnaon of causaly Here we adop he Granger causaly mehod n s developed verson accordng o Hsao (1981).Ths mehod s bul around a wo-sep procedure o deermne he opmum number of crossword lag erms and own lags and he drecon of causaly beween wo or more lags by usng he creron of predcon error or fnal error predcon (FPE or fnal error predcon) accordng o Akake (1969). Resumng a runcaed verson of Equaon (1) n he manner of auoregressve models, we oban: y y e1 1 ( 1 (4) Consderng y nally as a one-dmensonal auoregressve process, and akng as he maxmum lag lengh of he conrolled varable y. Accordng o he Hsao procedure, he frs sep s o regress y on y o ake he sum of squared errors (SSE) wh = 1, 2,...,, and hen calculae he FPE. The laer (FPE) s he delay seen n he followng equaon: T n 1 SSE FPE( n) (5) T n 1 T Wh T denoes he oal number of observaons, n s he order of he delay varyng from 1 o, and SSE s he sum of squared errors. Thus, f = 1 [Equaon (4)], here are 1 FPES. The order of delay mus hen be chosen n order o oban he smalles FPE denoed hus: FPE(n*). The followng equaon wll be he second sep accordng o he Hsao procedure: M y y (1 x e2 1 1 ( 1 (6) Where y s consdered as he conrol varable wh a delay of order fxed a n* and x as a varable subec o manpulaon. From Equaon (6) we calculae he SES by varyng he order of lags from 1 o M o ge he order ha gves he smalles FPE, denoed by m*. The correspondng wo FPE dmensons are gven by: FPE( n*, m) T n* m 1 SSE( n*, m) T n* m 1 T (7) wh m denong he order of lags of x() varyng from 1 o, and n* s he opmum number of lags deermned from Equaon (5). The followng concluson s drawn: energy ( x ) Grangercauses employmen ( y ), f FPE (n*, m*) < FPE (n*). The drecon of causaly employmen and energy consumpon can be esmaed by repeang he same procedure and usng he energy equaons below: ( 1 x x e1 (8) 1 M ( 1 x x y e2 (9) 1 1 Thus, wh he combnaon of he defnon of Granger causaly and he creron of FPE, Hsao (1981) mehod could allow o ener wo or more varables n he equaon wh dfferen numbers of lags. The resul s ha we reduce he number of lags o esmae. Inegraon, saonary and co-negraon Hsao's verson of Granger causaly requres ha all varables are saonary. Hence he frs sep s o es he saonary of varables. The Phllps-Perron (1988) es deermnng he level of negraon s used n hs sudy

4 Issues Bus. Manag. Econ. 196 Tables 1. ess on he levels of negraon of he dfferen varables of he sudy Varables PP value Crcal values GDPE CE * EP * * Sgnfcan a 1% Table 2. Resuls of un roo ess of Phllps-Perron wh frs dfferenced daa. Varables PP value Crcal values GDPE * * Sgnfcan a 1% Table 1 and 2. The Phllps-Perron (PP) es allows o ake no accoun boh auocorrelaon and heeroscedascy of errors, for whch s robus for a varey of seral correlaon and me-bound heeroscedasces. Problems assocaed wh arfcal regresson always mpose o carry ou saonary verfcaon ess of he seres before he esmaon process. The approach of Engle and Granger (1987) frs recommends esng he levels of negraon x and y o ensure he saonary of each varable. In case of nonsaonary of varables, he level mus be dfferenaed accordng o he order of negraon before esmang usng he saonary seres. The concep of co-negraon may be defned as a on movemen over a long perod of wo or more economc varables. Accordng o Engle and Granger (1987), when wo varables x and y are each negraed of order 1,.e. I (1), one would expec a lnear combnaon and hence a random walk. However, s parcular propery may occur ha her lnear combnaon s saonary,.e., I (), n whch case he wo varables x and y are called conegraed. The es of co-negraon s carred ou usng Equaon (3) above. Also, Granger represenaon heorem saes ha when wo varables are co-negraed (.e. a longerm equlbrum relaonshp exss beween hem), hen he mbalanced relaonshp a shor erm beween he wo varables can always be represened by a model correcon error. Daa used Before presenng he emprcal resuls, we descrbe he daa used. The daa are annual and concern he GDP per employee or GDP per person employed.e. he gross domesc produc (U.S. $ consan 199 PPP) dvded by oal employmen n he economy (GDPE), employmen (EP ).e. rao of employmen o populaon of people aged over 15 years, and energy consumpon (EC) or energy use (k of ol equvalen). Seres ha are aggregaed daa of WAEMU member counres from 1979 o 21 were obaned from he World Bank s daabase. The curves below show he evoluon of he respecve varables. Fgure 1. above shows he evoluon of he hree varables used n he sudy. I does no appear a perfec se of movemen beween hese varables. However, he varables Employmen and energy consumpon show a ceran smlar evoluon. More elaboraed ess are performed o denfy he relaonshp beween hese dfferen macroeconomc varables. RESULTS Tess of Granger causaly Tables 3 and 4 show he resuls of he Granger causaly ess beween he varables GDP per employmen (GDPE) and Energy Consumpon (EC) on one hand, and he Energy consumpon and Employmen (EP) on he oher hand. The es used s he Hsao verson of he Granger causaly ess. We ran he model wh dfferen levels of lags, whch ofen led o conflcng resuls. Ths arbrary choce of ranges of lags and / or pre-flerng remans an open queson. To overcome hs falure, he Hsao approach (1981) s used n hs sudy. The resuls are repored n Tables 3 and 4 whle he resuls on he Fscher sascs are repored n Tables 5 and 6. As saed above, when FPE (n*, m*) < FPE (n*), hen he produc per ob (GDPE) Granger causes energy consumpon. In Table 3, he resuls show ha snce energy consumpon s < herefore GDPE causes o he Granger he energy consumpon. Ths resul s confrmed by he sascal F es n Table 5 ndcang ha economc acvy sgnfcanly affecs energy consumpon (a 1%). Conversely, for he GDPE equaon

5 Energy Consupon and RealGDP/Employee Employmen Ouédraogo and Hassane Energy consumpon (n KT ol equvalen) RealGDP/Employee Employmen (number) Fgure 1: Comparave evoluon of he seres ha are nvolved n he sudy Source: Daabase of he World Bank (212) Table 3. Resuls of he Hsao verson of he ess of Granger causaly The equaon of GDPE: (3) > (1) EC does no cause GDPE The equaon of he energy consumpon: (1) < (8) GDPE causes EC The values n he parenheses represen he opmal lags Table 4. Resuls of he Hsao s verson of he ess of Granger causaly The equaon of employmen: (1) > (1) CE does no cause EP The equaon of he energy consumpon: (1) < (8) EP causes EC The values n he parenheses represen he opmal lags. (Table 3), > , herefore appears ha energy consumpon does no cause GDPE n he sense of Granger. The resuls n Table 3 ndcae ha he GDPE varable causes he Granger o cause he varable energy consumpon. The resuls n Table 4 show ha he varable employmen causes he Granger energy consumpon, whch reveals he drecon of causaly beween he dfferen varables. However, he lack of causaly relaonshp n boh drecons ndcaes no co-negraon relaonshp beween dfferen varables. Ths appears clearly n he resuls of ess of co-negraon. Through he same procedure, we perform he es of causaly beween employmen and energy consumpon n he WAEMU area. The resuls repored n Table 4 ndcae he equaon of employmen; energy consumpon does no cause he employmen Granger. However, for he equaon of energy consumpon (Table 4), he employmen causes he Granger energy consumpon. The resuls n Table 5 are furher confrmed by he F es sascs n Table 6, whch ndcae ha employmen affecs energy consumpon a 1%. Therefore n Tables 5 and 6, he varable GDPE causes

6 Issues Bus. Manag. Econ. 198 Table 6: The F ess of employmen equaon M EP (.9759) (.829)* ( 1 EP EC e 2 The values beween parenheses are of p values. * Sgnfcan a 1%. energy consumpon and employmen also causes energy consumpon. DISCUSSIO Ths sudy examnes he phenomenon of causaly of aggregaed macroeconomc varables of he WAEMU area such as GDP per employee, employmen and energy consumpon. Research has allowed denfyng undreconal relaonshp beween he produc per employmen and energy consumpon bu also beween employmen and energy consumpon. The resuls obaned n hs documen are n lne wh he resuls of smlar sudes on he relaonshp beween energy consumpon and he level of economc acvy (GDP), n parcular he one of Kraf and Kraf (1978) whch fnds causaly gong n he drecon from GDP o energy consumpon for he Uned Saes. I s he same for Yu and Cho (1985) who conduced a sudy on he Phlppnes and Souh Korea. Oher sudes n Souhern Sahara Afrca on he relaonshp beween energy consumpon and economc growh lead o he same resuls. Ths s he case of Tme s work (21), Ambapour Massamba (25) and Jumbe (24), whch respecvely ndcae a undreconal causaly from GDP o elecrcy consumpon n Côe d Ivore, Congo and Malaw. However, he resuls of some sudes such as hose of Okey (29) on Benn, Ivory Coas, Senegal and Togo reveal a lack of causaly beween elecrcy consumpon and economc growh. Ths undreconal causaly from GDP owards energy consumpon can be explaned by he fac ha economc growh n general generaes a hgher ncome per nhaban and herefore an ncrease n overall consumpon as spulaed n he psychologcal law of Keynes. Tme (21) n he case of Côe d'ivore manans ha energy producs are goods of necessy, any ncrease n he naonal ncome lead o hgher consumpon of hese producs. Ths resul also ndcaes ha pror nformaon of GDP help make beer forecass on energy consumpon n he WAEMU area. Undreconal causaly from GDP o energy consumpon could also mean sascally ha energy savng polces can be mplemened whou compromsng economc developmen (Wolde-Rufael, 26). The lack of causaly of energy consumpon o economc growh also has s orgn n he low access of he rural populaon (7% of he workforce) n he WAEMU area o mos of he convenonal energy sources whereas hey consue he vas maory (Kane, 29; Tmé, 21): hese populaons essenally lve on non-mechanzed agrculure, parcularly subssence agrculure. Concernng he relaonshp where employmen causes un-dreconally energy consumpon, research conduced by Akarca and Long (1979) and Murray and an (199) reach he same concluson for he Uned Saes. Oher sudes ncludng Erol and Yu (1987b) and Yu e al. (1988) usng daa from ndusralzed counres have no led o he causal relaonshp beween energy consumpon and employmen. Ths leads o hnk ha he economc acves of developed counres are no hghly nensve n energy, probably because hey are more effcen n her energy consumpon. Ths resul "employmen causes un-dreconally energy consumpon" can be explaned manly by he fac ha any ncrease n employmen n he economy goes wh an ncrease n he producon of enerprses, whch means economc growh. Snce economc growh ncreases naonal ncome; wll herefore resul n he sense of Keynes psychologcal law an ncrease n energy consumpon whch s a necessy n general. I should be noed ha he varous ess showed ha he varables are no co-negraed, whch dd no requre he use of error correcon model. Concluson and Recommendaons Ths arcle revews he Granger causaly beween energy consumpon on one hand and GDP per employmen, and he consumpon of energy and employmen on he oher hand for he WAEMU zone. We used he Hsao s verson of Granger s causaly mehod and Akake FPE creron o deermne he opmal lags. Ths helped oban a beer esmaon of lnks of causaly beween he wo pars of varables consdered. The resuls ndcae a relaonshp of undreconal causaly on one hand and GDP per employmen o energy consumpon and varable employmen o energy consumpon on he oher hand for he WAEMU area.

7 Ouédraogo and Hassane 199 Undreconal causaly from GDP owards energy consumpon could sascally mean ha energy savng measures can be aken whou compromsng economc developmen (Wolde-Rufael, 26). However, he pons ou ha reduced elecrcy consumpon n populaons who have dffcul access o hs resource (ncludng rural populaons n he WAEMU area), s no an opon. Afrcan counres have no ye reached a level of energy ndependence (poor nfrasrucure) o allow a reducon n her consumpon bu hey can preven he negave consequences relaed o he ncreased consumpon of energy and s neffcen use. Insead, by makng dfferen convenonal energy sources more accessble o all, could no only conrbue o reduce povery bu also o mprove he qualy of lfe of populaons and hus lead o economc growh n he wo senses of causaly. Tha means economc growh mproves he qualy of lfe and vce versa. For he fac ha energy consumpon does no cause economc growh reveals low access of rural populaons n he WAEMU counres o dfferen energy sources, should convene o promoe agro-busness and mechanzaon of agrculure n hese counres (Kane, 29). I hen appears ha energy s an mporan facor for he developmen of he WAEMU zone. Therefore, energy polcy n hs area mus ake no accoun he varous producons n he domans of ndusry, manufacurng, consrucon, ranspor ec., whch requres a grea deal of energy o acheve economc and socal developmen of he area whch naurally requres a srenghenng of he energy nfrasrucure. REFERECES Abdel-Khalek G (1988). Income and prce elasces of energy consumpon n Egyp, Energy Econ. 1: Akake H (1969). Fng auoregressve models for predcon, Annals of he Insue of Sascal Mahemacs 21: Akarca AT, Long TV (1979).Energy And Employmen: A Tme Seres Analyss of he Causal Relaonshp, Resources Energy, 2: Ambapour S, Massamba C (25). Crossance économque e consommaon d énerge au Congo : une analyse en ermes de causalé. Documen de Traval n 12, Brazzavlle. Anderson KP (1973). Resdenal demand for elecrcy: economerc esmaes for Calforna and Uned Saes, J. Bus. 46 (3): Asafu-Adaye J (2). The relaonshp beween energy consumpon, energy prces and economc growh: me seres evdence from Asan developng counres, Energy Econ. 22: Burney A (1995). Socoeconomc developmen and elecrcy consumpon: a cross-counry analyss usng he random coeffcen mehod, Energy Econ. 17 (3): Cheng BS, La TW (1997). An nvesgaon of co-negraon and causaly beween energy consumpon and economc acvy n Tawan, Energy Econ. 19: Engle RF, Granger CWJ (1987). Co-negraon and errorcorrecon: represenaon, esmaon and esng, Economerca 55(2): Erol U, Yu ESH (1987b). Tme seres analyss of he causal relaonshp beween U.S. energy and employmen, Ressources and Energy 16: Geweke e al. (1983). comparng alernave ess of causaly n emporal sysems, J. Econ., pp Gulkey DK, Salem MK (1982). Small sample properes of ree ess of Granger causal orderng n a bvarae sochasc sysem, Rev. Econ. Sa., 64: Hsao C (1987). Auoressve modellng and money ncome causaly deecon, J. Moneary Econ., 7: Jumbe CBL (24). Co-negraon and causaly beween elecrcy: consumpon and GDP: emprcal evdence from Malaw, Energy Econ. 26: Kane CS (29). Demande d énerge e crossance économque dans l UEMOA : Une analyse sur panel héérogène non saonnare. Revue Afrcane d Inégraon, Vol 3, n 1. Kraf J, Kraf A (1978). On he relaonshp beween Energy and GP, Journal of Energy and Developmen, 16: Mash AMM, Mash R (1997). On emporal casual relaonshp beween energy consumpon, real ncome and prces: some new evdence from Asan-Energy Dependen ICs based on a mulvarae co-negraon vecor error correcon approach, J. Pol. Modellng 19 (4): Munasnghe M (198). Inegraed naonal energy plannng (IEP) n developng counres, a. Resour. Forum 4: Murray DA, an GD (199). The energy and employmen relaonshp: a clarfcaon, The Journal of Energy and Developmen 16: Okey MK (29). Consommaon d énerges e crossance du PIB dans les pays de l UEMOA : Une analyse en données de panel. Documen de Traval, Unversé d Abdan-Cocody. Phllps PCB, Perron P (1988). Tesng for un roo n me seres regresson, Bomerca, 75: Sacko I (24). Analyse des lens enre crossance économque e consommaon d énerge au Mal, CERFOD-FSJE, Unversé du Mal. Samolds J, Mrolopulos CS (1984).Energy and economc growh n ndusralzed counres, Energy Econ. 6: Tmé EHH (21). Consommaon d Élecrcé e Crossance Économque en Côe d Ivore. Mémore de fn d éudes, Maser GPE, Abdan. Wolde-Rufael Y(26).Elecrcy consumpon and economc growh: a me seres experence for 17 Afrcan counres. Energy Pol. 34: Yang HY (2).A noe on he causal relaonshp beween

8 Issues Bus. Manag. Econ. 2 energy and GDP n Tawan. Energy Econ. 22: Yu ESH, Cho JY (1985) The casual relaonshp beween energy and GDP: an nernaonal comparson, J. Energy Dev. 1:

NPTEL Project. Econometric Modelling. Module23: Granger Causality Test. Lecture35: Granger Causality Test. Vinod Gupta School of Management

NPTEL Project. Econometric Modelling. Module23: Granger Causality Test. Lecture35: Granger Causality Test. Vinod Gupta School of Management P age NPTEL Proec Economerc Modellng Vnod Gua School of Managemen Module23: Granger Causaly Tes Lecure35: Granger Causaly Tes Rudra P. Pradhan Vnod Gua School of Managemen Indan Insue of Technology Kharagur,

More information

Energy Consumption- Growth Nexus in Saarc Countries: Using Cointegration and Error Correction Model

Energy Consumption- Growth Nexus in Saarc Countries: Using Cointegration and Error Correction Model www.ccsene.org/mas Energy Consumpon- Growh Nexus n Saarc Counres: Usng Conegraon and Error Correcon Model RUDRA PRAKASH PRADHAN Vnod Gupa School of Managemen, Indan Insue of Technology, Kharagpur, Inda

More information

UNIVERSITAT AUTÒNOMA DE BARCELONA MARCH 2017 EXAMINATION

UNIVERSITAT AUTÒNOMA DE BARCELONA MARCH 2017 EXAMINATION INTERNATIONAL TRADE T. J. KEHOE UNIVERSITAT AUTÒNOMA DE BARCELONA MARCH 27 EXAMINATION Please answer wo of he hree quesons. You can consul class noes, workng papers, and arcles whle you are workng on he

More information

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN VOLATILITY AND TRADING VOLUME: THE CASE OF HSI STOCK RETURNS DATA

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN VOLATILITY AND TRADING VOLUME: THE CASE OF HSI STOCK RETURNS DATA RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN VOLATILITY AND TRADING VOLUME: THE CASE OF HSI STOCK RETURNS DATA Mchaela Chocholaá Unversy of Economcs Braslava, Slovaka Inroducon (1) one of he characersc feaures of sock reurns

More information

Applied Econometrics and International Development Vol- 8-2 (2008)

Applied Econometrics and International Development Vol- 8-2 (2008) Appled Economercs and Inernaonal Developmen Vol- 8-2 (2008) HEALTH, EDUCATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: TESTING FOR LONG- RUN RELATIONSHIPS AND CAUSAL LINKS AKA, Béda F. * DUMONT, Jean Chrsophe Absrac Ths paper

More information

Graduate Macroeconomics 2 Problem set 5. - Solutions

Graduate Macroeconomics 2 Problem set 5. - Solutions Graduae Macroeconomcs 2 Problem se. - Soluons Queson 1 To answer hs queson we need he frms frs order condons and he equaon ha deermnes he number of frms n equlbrum. The frms frs order condons are: F K

More information

Department of Economics University of Toronto

Department of Economics University of Toronto Deparmen of Economcs Unversy of Torono ECO408F M.A. Economercs Lecure Noes on Heeroskedascy Heeroskedascy o Ths lecure nvolves lookng a modfcaons we need o make o deal wh he regresson model when some of

More information

Export-Led Growth Hypothesis: Evidence from Agricultural Exports in Tanzania

Export-Led Growth Hypothesis: Evidence from Agricultural Exports in Tanzania Afrcan Journal of Economc Revew, Volume III, Issue, July 15 Expor-Led Growh Hypohess: Evdence from Agrculural Expors n Tanzana Absrac Godwn A. Myovella, 7 Fnan Paul 8 and Rameck T. Rwakalaza 9 Ths sudy

More information

V.Abramov - FURTHER ANALYSIS OF CONFIDENCE INTERVALS FOR LARGE CLIENT/SERVER COMPUTER NETWORKS

V.Abramov - FURTHER ANALYSIS OF CONFIDENCE INTERVALS FOR LARGE CLIENT/SERVER COMPUTER NETWORKS R&RATA # Vol.) 8, March FURTHER AALYSIS OF COFIDECE ITERVALS FOR LARGE CLIET/SERVER COMPUTER ETWORKS Vyacheslav Abramov School of Mahemacal Scences, Monash Unversy, Buldng 8, Level 4, Clayon Campus, Wellngon

More information

John Geweke a and Gianni Amisano b a Departments of Economics and Statistics, University of Iowa, USA b European Central Bank, Frankfurt, Germany

John Geweke a and Gianni Amisano b a Departments of Economics and Statistics, University of Iowa, USA b European Central Bank, Frankfurt, Germany Herarchcal Markov Normal Mxure models wh Applcaons o Fnancal Asse Reurns Appendx: Proofs of Theorems and Condonal Poseror Dsrbuons John Geweke a and Gann Amsano b a Deparmens of Economcs and Sascs, Unversy

More information

F-Tests and Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) in the Simple Linear Regression Model. 1. Introduction

F-Tests and Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) in the Simple Linear Regression Model. 1. Introduction ECOOMICS 35* -- OTE 9 ECO 35* -- OTE 9 F-Tess and Analyss of Varance (AOVA n he Smple Lnear Regresson Model Inroducon The smple lnear regresson model s gven by he followng populaon regresson equaon, or

More information

New M-Estimator Objective Function. in Simultaneous Equations Model. (A Comparative Study)

New M-Estimator Objective Function. in Simultaneous Equations Model. (A Comparative Study) Inernaonal Mahemacal Forum, Vol. 8, 3, no., 7 - HIKARI Ld, www.m-hkar.com hp://dx.do.org/.988/mf.3.3488 New M-Esmaor Objecve Funcon n Smulaneous Equaons Model (A Comparave Sudy) Ahmed H. Youssef Professor

More information

Long-Run Relationship and Causality between Foreign Direct Investment and Growth: Evidence from Ten African Countries

Long-Run Relationship and Causality between Foreign Direct Investment and Growth: Evidence from Ten African Countries Inernaonal Journal of Economcs and Fnance www.ccsene.org/jef Long-Run Relaonshp and Causaly beween Foregn Drec Invesmen and Growh: Evdence from Ten Afrcan Counres Loesse Jacques ESSO Ecole Naonale Supéreure

More information

TSS = SST + SSE An orthogonal partition of the total SS

TSS = SST + SSE An orthogonal partition of the total SS ANOVA: Topc 4. Orhogonal conrass [ST&D p. 183] H 0 : µ 1 = µ =... = µ H 1 : The mean of a leas one reamen group s dfferen To es hs hypohess, a basc ANOVA allocaes he varaon among reamen means (SST) equally

More information

On One Analytic Method of. Constructing Program Controls

On One Analytic Method of. Constructing Program Controls Appled Mahemacal Scences, Vol. 9, 05, no. 8, 409-407 HIKARI Ld, www.m-hkar.com hp://dx.do.org/0.988/ams.05.54349 On One Analyc Mehod of Consrucng Program Conrols A. N. Kvko, S. V. Chsyakov and Yu. E. Balyna

More information

Econ107 Applied Econometrics Topic 5: Specification: Choosing Independent Variables (Studenmund, Chapter 6)

Econ107 Applied Econometrics Topic 5: Specification: Choosing Independent Variables (Studenmund, Chapter 6) Econ7 Appled Economercs Topc 5: Specfcaon: Choosng Independen Varables (Sudenmund, Chaper 6 Specfcaon errors ha we wll deal wh: wrong ndependen varable; wrong funconal form. Ths lecure deals wh wrong ndependen

More information

Midterm Exam. Thursday, April hour, 15 minutes

Midterm Exam. Thursday, April hour, 15 minutes Economcs of Grow, ECO560 San Francsco Sae Unvers Mcael Bar Sprng 04 Mderm Exam Tursda, prl 0 our, 5 mnues ame: Insrucons. Ts s closed boo, closed noes exam.. o calculaors of an nd are allowed. 3. Sow all

More information

THEORETICAL AUTOCORRELATIONS. ) if often denoted by γ. Note that

THEORETICAL AUTOCORRELATIONS. ) if often denoted by γ. Note that THEORETICAL AUTOCORRELATIONS Cov( y, y ) E( y E( y))( y E( y)) ρ = = Var( y) E( y E( y)) =,, L ρ = and Cov( y, y ) s ofen denoed by whle Var( y ) f ofen denoed by γ. Noe ha γ = γ and ρ = ρ and because

More information

Robustness Experiments with Two Variance Components

Robustness Experiments with Two Variance Components Naonal Insue of Sandards and Technology (NIST) Informaon Technology Laboraory (ITL) Sascal Engneerng Dvson (SED) Robusness Expermens wh Two Varance Componens by Ana Ivelsse Avlés avles@ns.gov Conference

More information

2. SPATIALLY LAGGED DEPENDENT VARIABLES

2. SPATIALLY LAGGED DEPENDENT VARIABLES 2. SPATIALLY LAGGED DEPENDENT VARIABLES In hs chaper, we descrbe a sascal model ha ncorporaes spaal dependence explcly by addng a spaally lagged dependen varable y on he rgh-hand sde of he regresson equaon.

More information

Solution in semi infinite diffusion couples (error function analysis)

Solution in semi infinite diffusion couples (error function analysis) Soluon n sem nfne dffuson couples (error funcon analyss) Le us consder now he sem nfne dffuson couple of wo blocks wh concenraon of and I means ha, n a A- bnary sysem, s bondng beween wo blocks made of

More information

January Examinations 2012

January Examinations 2012 Page of 5 EC79 January Examnaons No. of Pages: 5 No. of Quesons: 8 Subjec ECONOMICS (POSTGRADUATE) Tle of Paper EC79 QUANTITATIVE METHODS FOR BUSINESS AND FINANCE Tme Allowed Two Hours ( hours) Insrucons

More information

Data Collection Definitions of Variables - Conceptualize vs Operationalize Sample Selection Criteria Source of Data Consistency of Data

Data Collection Definitions of Variables - Conceptualize vs Operationalize Sample Selection Criteria Source of Data Consistency of Data Apply Sascs and Economercs n Fnancal Research Obj. of Sudy & Hypoheses Tesng From framework objecves of sudy are needed o clarfy, hen, n research mehodology he hypoheses esng are saed, ncludng esng mehods.

More information

Stock Market Development And Economic Growth

Stock Market Development And Economic Growth Amercan Journal of Appled Scences 6 (): 93-94, 9 ISSN 546-939 9 Scence Publcaons Sock Marke Developmen And Economc Growh Ahanasos Vazakds and Anonos Adamopoulos Deparmen of Appled Informacs, Unversy of

More information

Analysis And Evaluation of Econometric Time Series Models: Dynamic Transfer Function Approach

Analysis And Evaluation of Econometric Time Series Models: Dynamic Transfer Function Approach 1 Appeared n Proceedng of he 62 h Annual Sesson of he SLAAS (2006) pp 96. Analyss And Evaluaon of Economerc Tme Seres Models: Dynamc Transfer Funcon Approach T.M.J.A.COORAY Deparmen of Mahemacs Unversy

More information

In the complete model, these slopes are ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE FOR THE COMPLETE TWO-WAY MODEL. (! i+1 -! i ) + [(!") i+1,q - [(!

In the complete model, these slopes are ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE FOR THE COMPLETE TWO-WAY MODEL. (! i+1 -! i ) + [(!) i+1,q - [(! ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE FOR THE COMPLETE TWO-WAY MODEL The frs hng o es n wo-way ANOVA: Is here neracon? "No neracon" means: The man effecs model would f. Ths n urn means: In he neracon plo (wh A on he horzonal

More information

Existence and Uniqueness Results for Random Impulsive Integro-Differential Equation

Existence and Uniqueness Results for Random Impulsive Integro-Differential Equation Global Journal of Pure and Appled Mahemacs. ISSN 973-768 Volume 4, Number 6 (8), pp. 89-87 Research Inda Publcaons hp://www.rpublcaon.com Exsence and Unqueness Resuls for Random Impulsve Inegro-Dfferenal

More information

Oil price volatility and real effective exchange rate: the case of Thailand

Oil price volatility and real effective exchange rate: the case of Thailand MPRA Munch Personal RePEc Archve Ol prce volaly and real effecve exchange rae: he case of Thaland Koman Jranyakul Naonal Insue of Developmen Admnsraon July 204 Onlne a hps://mpra.ub.un-muenchen.de/60204/

More information

( t) Outline of program: BGC1: Survival and event history analysis Oslo, March-May Recapitulation. The additive regression model

( t) Outline of program: BGC1: Survival and event history analysis Oslo, March-May Recapitulation. The additive regression model BGC1: Survval and even hsory analyss Oslo, March-May 212 Monday May 7h and Tuesday May 8h The addve regresson model Ørnulf Borgan Deparmen of Mahemacs Unversy of Oslo Oulne of program: Recapulaon Counng

More information

( ) () we define the interaction representation by the unitary transformation () = ()

( ) () we define the interaction representation by the unitary transformation () = () Hgher Order Perurbaon Theory Mchael Fowler 3/7/6 The neracon Represenaon Recall ha n he frs par of hs course sequence, we dscussed he chrödnger and Hesenberg represenaons of quanum mechancs here n he chrödnger

More information

Testing Twin Deficits and Saving-Investment exus in Turkey [ FIRST DRAFT] Abstract

Testing Twin Deficits and Saving-Investment exus in Turkey [ FIRST DRAFT] Abstract Tesng Twn Defcs and Savng-Invesmen exus n Turkey [ FIRST DRAFT] Absrac Ths paper provdes fresh evdence on he valdy of wn defc and he Feldsen-Horoka hypoheses for Turkey durng he perod of 1987-004 usng

More information

Analysing the Relationship between New Housing Supply and Residential Construction Costs with the Regional Heterogeneities

Analysing the Relationship between New Housing Supply and Residential Construction Costs with the Regional Heterogeneities Analysng he Relaonshp beween New Housng Supply and Resdenal Consrucon Coss wh he Regonal Heerogenees Junxao Lu, (Deakn Unversy, Ausrala) Kerry London, (RMIT Unversy, Ausrala) Absrac New housng supply n

More information

Dynamic Team Decision Theory. EECS 558 Project Shrutivandana Sharma and David Shuman December 10, 2005

Dynamic Team Decision Theory. EECS 558 Project Shrutivandana Sharma and David Shuman December 10, 2005 Dynamc Team Decson Theory EECS 558 Proec Shruvandana Sharma and Davd Shuman December 0, 005 Oulne Inroducon o Team Decson Theory Decomposon of he Dynamc Team Decson Problem Equvalence of Sac and Dynamc

More information

5th International Conference on Advanced Design and Manufacturing Engineering (ICADME 2015)

5th International Conference on Advanced Design and Manufacturing Engineering (ICADME 2015) 5h Inernaonal onference on Advanced Desgn and Manufacurng Engneerng (IADME 5 The Falure Rae Expermenal Sudy of Specal N Machne Tool hunshan He, a, *, La Pan,b and Bng Hu 3,c,,3 ollege of Mechancal and

More information

Linear Response Theory: The connection between QFT and experiments

Linear Response Theory: The connection between QFT and experiments Phys540.nb 39 3 Lnear Response Theory: The connecon beween QFT and expermens 3.1. Basc conceps and deas Q: ow do we measure he conducvy of a meal? A: we frs nroduce a weak elecrc feld E, and hen measure

More information

GENERATING CERTAIN QUINTIC IRREDUCIBLE POLYNOMIALS OVER FINITE FIELDS. Youngwoo Ahn and Kitae Kim

GENERATING CERTAIN QUINTIC IRREDUCIBLE POLYNOMIALS OVER FINITE FIELDS. Youngwoo Ahn and Kitae Kim Korean J. Mah. 19 (2011), No. 3, pp. 263 272 GENERATING CERTAIN QUINTIC IRREDUCIBLE POLYNOMIALS OVER FINITE FIELDS Youngwoo Ahn and Kae Km Absrac. In he paper [1], an explc correspondence beween ceran

More information

Fall 2009 Social Sciences 7418 University of Wisconsin-Madison. Problem Set 2 Answers (4) (6) di = D (10)

Fall 2009 Social Sciences 7418 University of Wisconsin-Madison. Problem Set 2 Answers (4) (6) di = D (10) Publc Affars 974 Menze D. Chnn Fall 2009 Socal Scences 7418 Unversy of Wsconsn-Madson Problem Se 2 Answers Due n lecure on Thursday, November 12. " Box n" your answers o he algebrac quesons. 1. Consder

More information

Variants of Pegasos. December 11, 2009

Variants of Pegasos. December 11, 2009 Inroducon Varans of Pegasos SooWoong Ryu bshboy@sanford.edu December, 009 Youngsoo Cho yc344@sanford.edu Developng a new SVM algorhm s ongong research opc. Among many exng SVM algorhms, we wll focus on

More information

Notes on the stability of dynamic systems and the use of Eigen Values.

Notes on the stability of dynamic systems and the use of Eigen Values. Noes on he sabl of dnamc ssems and he use of Egen Values. Source: Macro II course noes, Dr. Davd Bessler s Tme Seres course noes, zarads (999) Ineremporal Macroeconomcs chaper 4 & Techncal ppend, and Hamlon

More information

US Monetary Policy and the G7 House Business Cycle: FIML Markov Switching Approach

US Monetary Policy and the G7 House Business Cycle: FIML Markov Switching Approach U Monear Polc and he G7 Hoe Bness Ccle: FML Markov wchng Approach Jae-Ho oon h Jun. 7 Absrac n order o deermne he effec of U monear polc o he common bness ccle beween hong prce and GDP n he G7 counres

More information

FI 3103 Quantum Physics

FI 3103 Quantum Physics /9/4 FI 33 Quanum Physcs Aleander A. Iskandar Physcs of Magnesm and Phooncs Research Grou Insu Teknolog Bandung Basc Conces n Quanum Physcs Probably and Eecaon Value Hesenberg Uncerany Prncle Wave Funcon

More information

Survival Analysis and Reliability. A Note on the Mean Residual Life Function of a Parallel System

Survival Analysis and Reliability. A Note on the Mean Residual Life Function of a Parallel System Communcaons n Sascs Theory and Mehods, 34: 475 484, 2005 Copyrgh Taylor & Francs, Inc. ISSN: 0361-0926 prn/1532-415x onlne DOI: 10.1081/STA-200047430 Survval Analyss and Relably A Noe on he Mean Resdual

More information

ELASTIC MODULUS ESTIMATION OF CHOPPED CARBON FIBER TAPE REINFORCED THERMOPLASTICS USING THE MONTE CARLO SIMULATION

ELASTIC MODULUS ESTIMATION OF CHOPPED CARBON FIBER TAPE REINFORCED THERMOPLASTICS USING THE MONTE CARLO SIMULATION THE 19 TH INTERNATIONAL ONFERENE ON OMPOSITE MATERIALS ELASTI MODULUS ESTIMATION OF HOPPED ARBON FIBER TAPE REINFORED THERMOPLASTIS USING THE MONTE ARLO SIMULATION Y. Sao 1*, J. Takahash 1, T. Masuo 1,

More information

Advanced time-series analysis (University of Lund, Economic History Department)

Advanced time-series analysis (University of Lund, Economic History Department) Advanced me-seres analss (Unvers of Lund, Economc Hsor Dearmen) 3 Jan-3 Februar and 6-3 March Lecure 4 Economerc echnues for saonar seres : Unvarae sochasc models wh Box- Jenns mehodolog, smle forecasng

More information

THE PREDICTION OF COMPETITIVE ENVIRONMENT IN BUSINESS

THE PREDICTION OF COMPETITIVE ENVIRONMENT IN BUSINESS THE PREICTION OF COMPETITIVE ENVIRONMENT IN BUSINESS INTROUCTION The wo dmensonal paral dfferenal equaons of second order can be used for he smulaon of compeve envronmen n busness The arcle presens he

More information

THE FORECASTING ABILITY OF A COINTEGRATED VAR DEMAND SYSTEM WITH ENDOGENOUS VS. EXOGENOUS EXPENDITURE VARIABLE

THE FORECASTING ABILITY OF A COINTEGRATED VAR DEMAND SYSTEM WITH ENDOGENOUS VS. EXOGENOUS EXPENDITURE VARIABLE WORKING PAPERS Invesgação - Trabalhos em curso - nº 109, Julho de 2001 THE FORECASTING ABILITY OF A COINTEGRATED VAR DEMAND SYSTEM WITH ENDOGENOUS VS. EXOGENOUS EXPENDITURE VARIABLE Margarda de Mello Kevn

More information

Economic Growth, Export, and External Debt Causality: The Case of Asian Countries

Economic Growth, Export, and External Debt Causality: The Case of Asian Countries The Paksan Developmen Revew 39 : Par II (Wner 2000) pp. 59 608 Economc Growh, Expor, and Exernal Deb Causaly: The Case of Asan Counres QAZI MASOOD AHMED, MOHAMMAD SABIHUDDIN BUTT, and SHAISTA ALAM I. INTRODUCTION

More information

Testing the Null Hypothesis of no Cointegration. against Seasonal Fractional Cointegration

Testing the Null Hypothesis of no Cointegration. against Seasonal Fractional Cointegration Appled Mahemacal Scences Vol. 008 no. 8 363-379 Tesng he Null Hypohess of no Conegraon agans Seasonal Fraconal Conegraon L.A. Gl-Alana Unversdad de Navarra Faculad de Cencas Economcas Edfco Bbloeca Enrada

More information

Productivity, Returns to Scale and Product Differentiation in the. Retail Trade Industry. --- An Empirical Analysis using Japanese Firm-Level Data ---

Productivity, Returns to Scale and Product Differentiation in the. Retail Trade Industry. --- An Empirical Analysis using Japanese Firm-Level Data --- Producvy, Reurns o Scale and Produc Dfferenaon n he Real Trade Indusry --- An Emprcal Analyss usng Japanese Frm-Level Daa --- Asuyuk KATO Research Insue of Economy, Trade and Indusry Absrac Ths paper examnes

More information

Chapter 6: AC Circuits

Chapter 6: AC Circuits Chaper 6: AC Crcus Chaper 6: Oulne Phasors and he AC Seady Sae AC Crcus A sable, lnear crcu operang n he seady sae wh snusodal excaon (.e., snusodal seady sae. Complee response forced response naural response.

More information

An Investigation of the Long-Run and Causal Relationships between Economy Performance, Investment and Port Sector Productivity in Cote d Ivoire

An Investigation of the Long-Run and Causal Relationships between Economy Performance, Investment and Port Sector Productivity in Cote d Ivoire Open Journal of Socal Scences, 205, 3, 29-38 Publshed Onlne Aprl 205 n ScRes. hp://www.scrp.org/journal/jss hp://dx.do.org/0.4236/jss.205.34004 An Invesgaon of he Long-Run and Causal Relaonshps beween

More information

CS434a/541a: Pattern Recognition Prof. Olga Veksler. Lecture 4

CS434a/541a: Pattern Recognition Prof. Olga Veksler. Lecture 4 CS434a/54a: Paern Recognon Prof. Olga Veksler Lecure 4 Oulne Normal Random Varable Properes Dscrmnan funcons Why Normal Random Varables? Analycally racable Works well when observaon comes form a corruped

More information

Kayode Ayinde Department of Pure and Applied Mathematics, Ladoke Akintola University of Technology P. M. B. 4000, Ogbomoso, Oyo State, Nigeria

Kayode Ayinde Department of Pure and Applied Mathematics, Ladoke Akintola University of Technology P. M. B. 4000, Ogbomoso, Oyo State, Nigeria Journal of Mahemacs and Sascs 3 (4): 96-, 7 ISSN 549-3644 7 Scence Publcaons A Comparave Sudy of he Performances of he OLS and some GLS Esmaors when Sochasc egressors are boh Collnear and Correlaed wh

More information

Time Scale Evaluation of Economic Forecasts

Time Scale Evaluation of Economic Forecasts CENTRAL BANK OF CYPRUS EUROSYSTEM WORKING PAPER SERIES Tme Scale Evaluaon of Economc Forecass Anons Mchs February 2014 Worng Paper 2014-01 Cenral Ban of Cyprus Worng Papers presen wor n progress by cenral

More information

Let s treat the problem of the response of a system to an applied external force. Again,

Let s treat the problem of the response of a system to an applied external force. Again, Page 33 QUANTUM LNEAR RESPONSE FUNCTON Le s rea he problem of he response of a sysem o an appled exernal force. Agan, H() H f () A H + V () Exernal agen acng on nernal varable Hamlonan for equlbrum sysem

More information

Online Appendix for. Strategic safety stocks in supply chains with evolving forecasts

Online Appendix for. Strategic safety stocks in supply chains with evolving forecasts Onlne Appendx for Sraegc safey socs n supply chans wh evolvng forecass Tor Schoenmeyr Sephen C. Graves Opsolar, Inc. 332 Hunwood Avenue Hayward, CA 94544 A. P. Sloan School of Managemen Massachuses Insue

More information

Real Exchange Rates In Developing Countries: Are Balassa-Samuelson Effects Present?

Real Exchange Rates In Developing Countries: Are Balassa-Samuelson Effects Present? WP/04/88 Real Exchange Raes In Developng Counres: Are Balassa-Samuelson Effecs Presen? Ehsan U. Choudhr and Mohsn S. Khan 2004 Inernaonal Moneary Fund WP/04/88 IMF Workng Paper Mddle Eas and Cenral Asa

More information

This document is downloaded from DR-NTU, Nanyang Technological University Library, Singapore.

This document is downloaded from DR-NTU, Nanyang Technological University Library, Singapore. Ths documen s downloaded from DR-NTU, Nanyang Technologcal Unversy Lbrary, Sngapore. Tle A smplfed verb machng algorhm for word paron n vsual speech processng( Acceped verson ) Auhor(s) Foo, Say We; Yong,

More information

Mechanics Physics 151

Mechanics Physics 151 Mechancs Physcs 5 Lecure 9 Hamlonan Equaons of Moon (Chaper 8) Wha We Dd Las Tme Consruced Hamlonan formalsm H ( q, p, ) = q p L( q, q, ) H p = q H q = p H = L Equvalen o Lagrangan formalsm Smpler, bu

More information

Panel Data Regression Models

Panel Data Regression Models Panel Daa Regresson Models Wha s Panel Daa? () Mulple dmensoned Dmensons, e.g., cross-secon and me node-o-node (c) Pongsa Pornchawseskul, Faculy of Economcs, Chulalongkorn Unversy (c) Pongsa Pornchawseskul,

More information

[ ] 2. [ ]3 + (Δx i + Δx i 1 ) / 2. Δx i-1 Δx i Δx i+1. TPG4160 Reservoir Simulation 2018 Lecture note 3. page 1 of 5

[ ] 2. [ ]3 + (Δx i + Δx i 1 ) / 2. Δx i-1 Δx i Δx i+1. TPG4160 Reservoir Simulation 2018 Lecture note 3. page 1 of 5 TPG460 Reservor Smulaon 08 page of 5 DISCRETIZATIO OF THE FOW EQUATIOS As we already have seen, fne dfference appromaons of he paral dervaves appearng n he flow equaons may be obaned from Taylor seres

More information

Mechanics Physics 151

Mechanics Physics 151 Mechancs Physcs 5 Lecure 9 Hamlonan Equaons of Moon (Chaper 8) Wha We Dd Las Tme Consruced Hamlonan formalsm Hqp (,,) = qp Lqq (,,) H p = q H q = p H L = Equvalen o Lagrangan formalsm Smpler, bu wce as

More information

(,,, ) (,,, ). In addition, there are three other consumers, -2, -1, and 0. Consumer -2 has the utility function

(,,, ) (,,, ). In addition, there are three other consumers, -2, -1, and 0. Consumer -2 has the utility function MACROECONOMIC THEORY T J KEHOE ECON 87 SPRING 5 PROBLEM SET # Conder an overlappng generaon economy le ha n queon 5 on problem e n whch conumer lve for perod The uly funcon of he conumer born n perod,

More information

Appendix H: Rarefaction and extrapolation of Hill numbers for incidence data

Appendix H: Rarefaction and extrapolation of Hill numbers for incidence data Anne Chao Ncholas J Goell C seh lzabeh L ander K Ma Rober K Colwell and Aaron M llson 03 Rarefacon and erapolaon wh ll numbers: a framewor for samplng and esmaon n speces dversy sudes cology Monographs

More information

Outline. Probabilistic Model Learning. Probabilistic Model Learning. Probabilistic Model for Time-series Data: Hidden Markov Model

Outline. Probabilistic Model Learning. Probabilistic Model Learning. Probabilistic Model for Time-series Data: Hidden Markov Model Probablsc Model for Tme-seres Daa: Hdden Markov Model Hrosh Mamsuka Bonformacs Cener Kyoo Unversy Oulne Three Problems for probablsc models n machne learnng. Compung lkelhood 2. Learnng 3. Parsng (predcon

More information

CHAPTER 10: LINEAR DISCRIMINATION

CHAPTER 10: LINEAR DISCRIMINATION CHAPER : LINEAR DISCRIMINAION Dscrmnan-based Classfcaon 3 In classfcaon h K classes (C,C,, C k ) We defned dscrmnan funcon g j (), j=,,,k hen gven an es eample, e chose (predced) s class label as C f g

More information

Political Economy of Institutions and Development: Problem Set 2 Due Date: Thursday, March 15, 2019.

Political Economy of Institutions and Development: Problem Set 2 Due Date: Thursday, March 15, 2019. Polcal Economy of Insuons and Developmen: 14.773 Problem Se 2 Due Dae: Thursday, March 15, 2019. Please answer Quesons 1, 2 and 3. Queson 1 Consder an nfne-horzon dynamc game beween wo groups, an ele and

More information

Comparison of Supervised & Unsupervised Learning in βs Estimation between Stocks and the S&P500

Comparison of Supervised & Unsupervised Learning in βs Estimation between Stocks and the S&P500 Comparson of Supervsed & Unsupervsed Learnng n βs Esmaon beween Socks and he S&P500 J. We, Y. Hassd, J. Edery, A. Becker, Sanford Unversy T I. INTRODUCTION HE goal of our proec s o analyze he relaonshps

More information

Application of Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Impulse Response Function for Analysis Data Index of Farmers Terms of Trade

Application of Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Impulse Response Function for Analysis Data Index of Farmers Terms of Trade Indan Journal of Scence and echnology, Vol 0(9), DOI: 0.7485/js/07/v09/58, May 07 ISSN (Prn) : 0974-6846 ISSN (Onlne) : 0974-5645 Applcaon of Vecor Error Correcon Model (VECM) and Impulse Response Funcon

More information

Optimal environmental charges under imperfect compliance

Optimal environmental charges under imperfect compliance ISSN 1 746-7233, England, UK World Journal of Modellng and Smulaon Vol. 4 (28) No. 2, pp. 131-139 Opmal envronmenal charges under mperfec complance Dajn Lu 1, Ya Wang 2 Tazhou Insue of Scence and Technology,

More information

Volume 31, Issue 1. Are exports and imports cointegrated in India and China? An empirical analysis

Volume 31, Issue 1. Are exports and imports cointegrated in India and China? An empirical analysis Volume 3, Issue Are expors and mpors conegraed n Inda and Chna? An emprcal analyss Avral Kumar war ICFAI Unversy, rpura Absrac hs sudy analyss he susanably of he rade defcs n he wo gan economes of Asa,

More information

Geographically weighted regression (GWR)

Geographically weighted regression (GWR) Ths s he auhor s fnal verson of he manuscrp of Nakaya, T. (007): Geographcally weghed regresson. In Kemp, K. ed., Encyclopaeda of Geographcal Informaon Scence, Sage Publcaons: Los Angeles, 179-184. Geographcally

More information

Revisiting Wagner s Law for Selected African Countries: A Frequency Domain Causality Analysis

Revisiting Wagner s Law for Selected African Countries: A Frequency Domain Causality Analysis Journal of Sascal and Economerc Mehods, vol.4, no.4, 015, 55-69 ISSN: 179-660 rn, 179-6939 onlne Scenress d, 015 Revsng Wagner s aw for Seleced Afrcan Counres: A Frequency Doman Causaly Analyss Yaya Keho

More information

Economics Discussion Paper

Economics Discussion Paper Economcs Dscusson Paper EDP-057 Busness Cycle Lnkages for he G7 Counres: Does he Lead he World? By Dense R Osborn, Pedro J Perez and Maranne Senser Aprl 005 Correspondance emal dense.osborn@mancheser.ac.uk

More information

Time-interval analysis of β decay. V. Horvat and J. C. Hardy

Time-interval analysis of β decay. V. Horvat and J. C. Hardy Tme-nerval analyss of β decay V. Horva and J. C. Hardy Work on he even analyss of β decay [1] connued and resuled n he developmen of a novel mehod of bea-decay me-nerval analyss ha produces hghly accurae

More information

MODELING TIME-VARYING TRADING-DAY EFFECTS IN MONTHLY TIME SERIES

MODELING TIME-VARYING TRADING-DAY EFFECTS IN MONTHLY TIME SERIES MODELING TIME-VARYING TRADING-DAY EFFECTS IN MONTHLY TIME SERIES Wllam R. Bell, Census Bureau and Donald E. K. Marn, Howard Unversy and Census Bureau Donald E. K. Marn, Howard Unversy, Washngon DC 0059

More information

The Relationship between Savings and GDP in Iran: An ARDL Approach for the case of Iran

The Relationship between Savings and GDP in Iran: An ARDL Approach for the case of Iran Inernaonal journal of advanced scenfc and echncal research Issue 2 volume 6, December 2012 Avalable onlne on h://www.rsublcaon.com/js/ndex.hml ISSN 2249-9954 The Relaonsh beween Savngs and GDP n Iran:

More information

Performance Analysis for a Network having Standby Redundant Unit with Waiting in Repair

Performance Analysis for a Network having Standby Redundant Unit with Waiting in Repair TECHNI Inernaonal Journal of Compung Scence Communcaon Technologes VOL.5 NO. July 22 (ISSN 974-3375 erformance nalyss for a Nework havng Sby edundan Un wh ang n epar Jendra Sngh 2 abns orwal 2 Deparmen

More information

Bayesian Inference of the GARCH model with Rational Errors

Bayesian Inference of the GARCH model with Rational Errors 0 Inernaonal Conference on Economcs, Busness and Markeng Managemen IPEDR vol.9 (0) (0) IACSIT Press, Sngapore Bayesan Inference of he GARCH model wh Raonal Errors Tesuya Takash + and Tng Tng Chen Hroshma

More information

Testing the Neo-Classical and the Newtonian Theory of Production

Testing the Neo-Classical and the Newtonian Theory of Production Tesng he Neo-Classcal and he Newonan Theory of Producon Ma Esola * & Ala Dannenberg # * Unversy of Easern Fnland Faculy of Socal Scences and Busness Sudes, Joensuu Campus # Unversy of Easern Fnland Deparmen

More information

ON THE WEAK LIMITS OF SMOOTH MAPS FOR THE DIRICHLET ENERGY BETWEEN MANIFOLDS

ON THE WEAK LIMITS OF SMOOTH MAPS FOR THE DIRICHLET ENERGY BETWEEN MANIFOLDS ON THE WEA LIMITS OF SMOOTH MAPS FOR THE DIRICHLET ENERGY BETWEEN MANIFOLDS FENGBO HANG Absrac. We denfy all he weak sequenal lms of smooh maps n W (M N). In parcular, hs mples a necessary su cen opologcal

More information

Impact of Strategic Changes on the Performance of Trucking Firms in the Agricultural Commodity Transportation Market

Impact of Strategic Changes on the Performance of Trucking Firms in the Agricultural Commodity Transportation Market Impac of Sraegc Changes on he Performance of Truckng Frms n he Agrculural Commody Transporaon Marke Alber J. Allen Deparmen of Agrculural Economcs Msssspp Sae Unversy Msssspp Sae, MS 39762 Emal: allen@agecon.mssae.edu

More information

Cubic Bezier Homotopy Function for Solving Exponential Equations

Cubic Bezier Homotopy Function for Solving Exponential Equations Penerb Journal of Advanced Research n Compung and Applcaons ISSN (onlne: 46-97 Vol. 4, No.. Pages -8, 6 omoopy Funcon for Solvng Eponenal Equaons S. S. Raml *,,. Mohamad Nor,a, N. S. Saharzan,b and M.

More information

Lecture 11 SVM cont

Lecture 11 SVM cont Lecure SVM con. 0 008 Wha we have done so far We have esalshed ha we wan o fnd a lnear decson oundary whose margn s he larges We know how o measure he margn of a lnear decson oundary Tha s: he mnmum geomerc

More information

1 Constant Real Rate C 1

1 Constant Real Rate C 1 Consan Real Rae. Real Rae of Inees Suppose you ae equally happy wh uns of he consumpon good oday o 5 uns of he consumpon good n peod s me. C 5 Tha means you ll be pepaed o gve up uns oday n eun fo 5 uns

More information

Lecture Notes 4. Univariate Forecasting and the Time Series Properties of Dynamic Economic Models

Lecture Notes 4. Univariate Forecasting and the Time Series Properties of Dynamic Economic Models Tme Seres Seven N. Durlauf Unversy of Wsconsn Lecure Noes 4. Unvarae Forecasng and he Tme Seres Properes of Dynamc Economc Models Ths se of noes presens does hree hngs. Frs, formulas are developed o descrbe

More information

Relative controllability of nonlinear systems with delays in control

Relative controllability of nonlinear systems with delays in control Relave conrollably o nonlnear sysems wh delays n conrol Jerzy Klamka Insue o Conrol Engneerng, Slesan Techncal Unversy, 44- Glwce, Poland. phone/ax : 48 32 37227, {jklamka}@a.polsl.glwce.pl Keywor: Conrollably.

More information

OMXS30 Balance 20% Index Rules

OMXS30 Balance 20% Index Rules OMX30 Balance 0% ndex Rules Verson as of 30 March 009 Copyrgh 008, The NADAQ OMX Group, nc. All rghs reserved. NADAQ OMX, The NADAQ ock Marke and NADAQ are regsered servce/rademarks of The NADAQ OMX Group,

More information

Chapter Lagrangian Interpolation

Chapter Lagrangian Interpolation Chaper 5.4 agrangan Inerpolaon Afer readng hs chaper you should be able o:. dere agrangan mehod of nerpolaon. sole problems usng agrangan mehod of nerpolaon and. use agrangan nerpolans o fnd deraes and

More information

ACEI working paper series RETRANSFORMATION BIAS IN THE ADJACENT ART PRICE INDEX

ACEI working paper series RETRANSFORMATION BIAS IN THE ADJACENT ART PRICE INDEX ACEI workng paper seres RETRANSFORMATION BIAS IN THE ADJACENT ART PRICE INDEX Andrew M. Jones Robero Zanola AWP-01-2011 Dae: July 2011 Reransformaon bas n he adjacen ar prce ndex * Andrew M. Jones and

More information

Capital Flow Volatility and Exchange Rates: The Case of India. Pami Dua and Partha Sen 1, 2

Capital Flow Volatility and Exchange Rates: The Case of India. Pami Dua and Partha Sen 1, 2 Capal Flow Volaly and Exchange Raes: The Case of Inda Pam Dua and Parha Sen, 2 Absrac Ths paper examnes he relaonshp beween he real exchange rae, level of capal flows, volaly of he flows, fscal and moneary

More information

Robustness of DEWMA versus EWMA Control Charts to Non-Normal Processes

Robustness of DEWMA versus EWMA Control Charts to Non-Normal Processes Journal of Modern Appled Sascal Mehods Volume Issue Arcle 8 5--3 Robusness of D versus Conrol Chars o Non- Processes Saad Saeed Alkahan Performance Measuremen Cener of Governmen Agences, Insue of Publc

More information

J i-1 i. J i i+1. Numerical integration of the diffusion equation (I) Finite difference method. Spatial Discretization. Internal nodes.

J i-1 i. J i i+1. Numerical integration of the diffusion equation (I) Finite difference method. Spatial Discretization. Internal nodes. umercal negraon of he dffuson equaon (I) Fne dfference mehod. Spaal screaon. Inernal nodes. R L V For hermal conducon le s dscree he spaal doman no small fne spans, =,,: Balance of parcles for an nernal

More information

NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF SINGAPORE PC5202 ADVANCED STATISTICAL MECHANICS. (Semester II: AY ) Time Allowed: 2 Hours

NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF SINGAPORE PC5202 ADVANCED STATISTICAL MECHANICS. (Semester II: AY ) Time Allowed: 2 Hours NATONAL UNVERSTY OF SNGAPORE PC5 ADVANCED STATSTCAL MECHANCS (Semeser : AY 1-13) Tme Allowed: Hours NSTRUCTONS TO CANDDATES 1. Ths examnaon paper conans 5 quesons and comprses 4 prned pages.. Answer all

More information

Lecture 18: The Laplace Transform (See Sections and 14.7 in Boas)

Lecture 18: The Laplace Transform (See Sections and 14.7 in Boas) Lecure 8: The Lalace Transform (See Secons 88- and 47 n Boas) Recall ha our bg-cure goal s he analyss of he dfferenal equaon, ax bx cx F, where we emloy varous exansons for he drvng funcon F deendng on

More information

The role of monetary policy in managing the euro dollar exchange rate

The role of monetary policy in managing the euro dollar exchange rate The role of moneary polcy n managng he euro dollar exchange rae Nkolaos Mylonds a, and Ioanna Samopoulou a a Deparmen of Economcs, Unversy of Ioannna, 45 0 Ioannna, Greece. Absrac The US Federal Reserve

More information

Forecasting customer behaviour in a multi-service financial organisation: a profitability perspective

Forecasting customer behaviour in a multi-service financial organisation: a profitability perspective Forecasng cusomer behavour n a mul-servce fnancal organsaon: a profably perspecve A. Audzeyeva, Unversy of Leeds & Naonal Ausrala Group Europe, UK B. Summers, Unversy of Leeds, UK K.R. Schenk-Hoppé, Unversy

More information

Approximate Analytic Solution of (2+1) - Dimensional Zakharov-Kuznetsov(Zk) Equations Using Homotopy

Approximate Analytic Solution of (2+1) - Dimensional Zakharov-Kuznetsov(Zk) Equations Using Homotopy Arcle Inernaonal Journal of Modern Mahemacal Scences, 4, (): - Inernaonal Journal of Modern Mahemacal Scences Journal homepage: www.modernscenfcpress.com/journals/jmms.aspx ISSN: 66-86X Florda, USA Approxmae

More information

A NOTE ON SPURIOUS REGRESSION IN PANELS WITH CROSS-SECTION DEPENDENCE

A NOTE ON SPURIOUS REGRESSION IN PANELS WITH CROSS-SECTION DEPENDENCE A OTE O SPURIOUS REGRESSIO I PAELS WITH CROSS-SECTIO DEPEDECE Jen-Je Su Deparmen of Appled and Inernaonal Economcs Massey Unversy Prvae Bag - Palmerson orh ew Zealand E-mal: jjsu@masseyacnz ABSTRACT Ths

More information

Relative Efficiency and Productivity Dynamics of the Metalware Industry in Hanoi

Relative Efficiency and Productivity Dynamics of the Metalware Industry in Hanoi Relave Effcency and Producvy Dynamcs of he Mealware Indusry n Hano Nguyen Khac Mnh Dau Thuy Ma and Vu Quang Dong Absrac Ths paper focuses on relave effcency and producvy dynamcs of he mealware ndusry n

More information