Export-Led Growth Hypothesis: Evidence from Agricultural Exports in Tanzania

Transcription

1 Afrcan Journal of Economc Revew, Volume III, Issue, July 15 Expor-Led Growh Hypohess: Evdence from Agrculural Expors n Tanzana Absrac Godwn A. Myovella, 7 Fnan Paul 8 and Rameck T. Rwakalaza 9 Ths sudy examnes he naure and drecon of causaly n Tanzana beween economc growh and agrculural expors along wh some seleced varables such as labour force and domesc nvesmen. The analyss for hs sudy was carred ou usng me seres daa for he perod of 198 o 13. The daa seres were esed for saonary usng Phllps-perron es and he resuls revealed ha hey were all saonary and negraed of order one I(1). The Johansen es of conegraon revealed ha here are conegrang vecors n he sysem. The Granger causaly es resuls revealed no any suppor of he expor-led growh (ELG) hypohess for Tanzana. However, he growh-led expors (GLE) hypohess for Tanzana was suppored by he resuls of hs sudy, mplyng ha he governmen of Tanzana needs o promoe growh n order o generae expors. Keywords: Agrculural expors, Economc growh, conegraon, causaly and Tanzana. 7 Correspondng auhor, Deparmen of Economcs and Sascs, he Unversy of Dodoma, P. O. Box 395 Dodoma, E- mal: myovellagd@gmal.com. 8 Deparmen of Economcs and Sascs, he Unversy of Dodoma, P. O. Box 395 Dodoma 9 Deparmen of Economcs and Sascs, he Unversy of Dodoma, P. O. Box 395 Dodoma 74 Page

2 Afrcan Journal of Economc Revew, Volume III, Issue, July Inroducon Economc Growh s possbly he leadng goal of polcy makers worldwde (Hernandez, 11). I s a convenonal wsdom among polcy makers and academcs ha expors are key facor n promong economc growh n developng counres (Dreger, 11). One concern s ha many developng counres are heavly dependen on prmary commody expors o developed counres (UNCTAD, 5). In achevng he goal of economc growh, approaches of aanng hs goal do vary across and whn counres over me. Expor promoon s among he approaches commonly used o acheve hs goal due o s observed success n Asan economc gers; Souh Korea, Tawan, Hong Kong, and Sngapore (Krueger 1985). By early 198 s expor-led orenaon and expor promoon had already secured a wde consensus among researchers and polcy makers o he exen ha hey had become convenonal wsdom among mos economss n he developng world (Balassa, 1985). Ths was he case even o he mullaeral organzaons such as he World Bank and Inernaonal Moneary Fund (IMF), herefore many developng counres were forced o smulae her expor-led orenaon even more because mos of hem had o rely on mullaeral organzaons o mplemen adjusmen and sablzaon programmes (Emlo, 1). However, here are sreams of pas leraures whch show dfferen conflcng and mxed resuls whch rase a number of quesons on expor and economc growh relaonshps. These sudes are caegorzed no cross seconal analyss whch manly used rank correlaon analyss and lnear regresson models ( see Keesng, 1967; Krueger, 1985, Gles and Wllams, ) and me seres sudes (see Manzoor, 9; Merza, 7 Mshra 9 and Casro-zunga,4). One sream of leraure spulaes ha expor s he engne of growh (see Balasa, 1978; Feder, 198; Perry Sadorsky 1996) herefore hese emprcal sudes provdes suppor for he expor led growh paradgm. The oher sream of leraure ndcaes economc growh o be he engne of expor growh (See Al-Yousf, 1999; Henrques and Sadorsky, 1996). The hrd sream ndcaes a bdreconal relaonshp beween he wo (See Shombe, 5; Snoha-Lopee, 4). Mos of he sudes debang on he expor led growh hypohess were done n developed counres; few have been done n LDC s ncludng Afrca such as ha of Musonda, 7. However, we found only one publshed sudy by Shombe (5), nvesgang causal relaonshps among agrculure GDP, manufacurng GDP and expors n Tanzana by usng me seres daa for he perod beween 197 and 5. He also suppored he expor led paradgm. Agrculure s one of he leadng secors of Tanzana s economy, he economy s herefore agraran (ESRF, 9). I has conrbued subsanally o he real GDP and foregn exchange earnngs and s lnkages have been hgher han hose of oher secors (URT, ). Beween he year 1987 and, agrculural conrbuon o he GDP was beween 48. percen and 5 percen, and foregn exchange earnngs were 54 and 56 percen respecvely (URT, ). To manan economc growh Tanzana lke oher counres uses expor promoon as one of he approaches (Shombe, 8). Expor promoon has been mplemened usng varous sraeges n he counry such as esablshmen of expor processng zones so as o speed up ndusralzaon for expor marke. Also on followng he pah of expor led growh he governmen of Tanzana esablshed he naonal expor sraegy whch amed a crcally assessng he recen expor performance and rends, and hghlghng he obsacles o 75 Page

3 Afrcan Journal of Economc Revew, Volume III, Issue, July 15 ncreased expors compeveness (URT, 9). Wh regard o rade he naonal expor sraegy has drawn upon a number of recen naves ncludng: Tanzana Trade and Inegraon Sraegy, Inegraed Framework process, Draf Prvae Secor Developmen Sraegy, 1996 Expor Developmen Sraegy, and he Quck Wns Expor Sraegy. Whle many sudes have shed some lgh and brough he relaonshp of expor and growh o he fore of academc dscusson, he leraure s sll very much lmed n Tanzanan conex. Alhough agrculural expors are mporan sources of foregn exchange, here s no recen emprcal evdence assessng he shor and long erm effecs of agrculural expors expanson on economc growh. Thus, hs paper herefore aemps o nvesgae he exsence of shor-run and long-run relaonshps beween agrculural expors and economc growh n Tanzana, also o examne he exsence of causal relaonshp beween agrculural expors and economc growh. The remander of hs sudy s organzed as follows. Whle secon gves model specfcaon, secon 3 repors he emprcal resuls. Secon 4 concludes.. Model specfcaon and Daa The heorecal model use neoclasscal framework heory of nernaonal free rade. The model ncorporaes expor no he cob-douglas producon funcon as follows: Y f ( K, L, X ) (1) Where Y s oupu, K s capal, L s Labour and X s agrculural expor. Ths sudy uses me seres daa of real gross domesc produc (GDP) a proxy for economc growh, real agrculural expor (EXP), gross fxed capal formaon a proxy for domesc nvesmen (DI) and labour force (LAB) from 198 o 13. Our daa have been obaned from UNCTAD daabase and all daa are ransformed no he naural logarhmc form o address he problem heeroscedascy. The mehodology employed n hs sudy s he granger causaly whn vecor correcon model. The enre esmaon process nvolves hree seps whch are un roo es, conegraon es and error correcon model esmaon..1 Un Roo Tes Mos me seres daa have a un roo problem, ha s, hey are no saonary. Dealng wh non saonary me seres may lead o spurous resuls and analyss, herefore, o solve he problem of non saonary, he Phllps-Perron (PP) un roo es s employed. Ths sudy adops mehodology from Zunga (4) and he PP es model s expressed as follows: Y Y 1 u () The requremen ha he errors be whe nose comes from he fac ha he lmng dsrbuons of he es sascs depend on he correlaon of he resduals. In parcular, he shape of he dsrbuons depends on he rao, where s he / e varance of he nnovaons and e can be expressed as: 1 T e lm T T E 1 u j j1 (3) j 76 Page

4 Afrcan Journal of Economc Revew, Volume III, Issue, July 15 The laer erm s a measure of he emporal covarance of he resduals errors. The dea behnd he Phllps-Perron es s o use an emprcal esmae of and o adjus he sasc self so ha more closely conforms o he sandard Dckey-Fuller dsrbuon.. Co-negraon and model esmaon We are concerned wh es for conegraon o analyse he relaonshp beween varables and decde whch model o be used. If varables are co-negraed, ha s here s long run relaonshp beween varables, hen VEC model whch has an error correcon mechansm s used oherwse VAR model s approprae. Johansen conegraon es s used o es he hypohess wheher here s r conegrang vecors and race es s used. Trace sasc s used o es he null hypohess ha here are a mos r conegrang vecors agans he alernave hypohess ha here are a leas r+1 conegrang vecors and s defned as; race P r T ln(1 ) jr1 (4) where T Is he number of observaons. j.3 Granger Causaly whn Vecor Error Correcon Model (VECM) The nex sep s o es for he drecon of causaly usng Granger causaly es whn he vecor error correcon model. Narayan and Smyh (8), and Odhambo (9) emphaszes ha he error correcon based causaly es, as opposed o he convenonal Granger causaly mehod, allows for he ncluson of he lagged error correcon erm derved from he conegrang equaons. Includng he lagged error-correcon erm allows he long-run nformaon los hrough dfferencng o be renroduced n a sascally accepable way. Therefore, we specfy he vecor error correcon framework (VECM) o examne a Granger ype of causaly wh an error correcon mechansm s gven as follows: e lgdp a lexp = a ldi a llab a k lgdp 1ECT lexp + ECT 3 ldi 3ECT 4 llab 4ECT e + e e e (5) Where: GDP = Real Gross Domesc Produc, Gross Domesc Invesmen, LAB = Labour Force, EXP = Real Agrculural Expors, 's,, 's, DI = Real ECT = Error Correcon Term, a1,...,a 4 are consan erms n a VEC model, 's and are he coeffcen of, GDP EXP DI, LAB and ECT respecvely, e1,..., e4 are error erms ha are assumed o be whe nose. The null hypohess can be drawn as EXP, DI and LAB does no Grangercause GDP f 1, 1, and 1 respecvely agans he alernave ha EXP, DI and LAB does Granger-cause GDP f 1, 1, and 1, 3. The emprcal Resuls 3.1 Order of Inegraon and Un roo es The naure of our daa s me seres as saed earler and has rend properes. We use un roo es o asses f agrculural expor (EXP), labour force (LAB), domesc nvesmen (DI) and real GDP are saonary or no and her respecve orders of negraon I(k). The Phllps- 77 Page 's ' s

5 Afrcan Journal of Economc Revew, Volume III, Issue, July 15 Perron un roo es was used o es boh he level seres and he frs dfferenced seres of he daa. The resuls repored n Table 1ndcaes ha all he seres GDP, EXP, DI, and LAB n her levels were no saonary as her es sascs are greaer han her correspondng crcal values. The null hypohess of non-saonary of he seres n her levels could no be rejeced a he.1 level of sgnfcance. However, he seres GDP, EXP, DI, and LAB became saonary afer hey were dfferenced once. Ther es sascs are less han her correspondng crcal values a he.1 and.1 levels of sgnfcance. Therefore, he null hypohess of non-saonary of he seres n her frs dfference was rejeced n favour of he alernave hypohess and conclude ha he seres GDP, EXP, DI, and LAB are saonary and negraed of order one I(1). In hs regard furher economerc analyses suggesed for hs sudy can now be carred ou. Table 1: Phllps-Perron (PP) Un Roo Ress Levels Frs Dfferences Varables Tes Crcal Tes Sascs Crcal Values Sascs Values lngdp * -.6 lnexp *** -3.7 lndi *** -3.7 lnlab * -.6 Source: Auhors compuaon, 15 Noe: *** and * denoe sgnfcance a 1% and 1% respecvely 3. Johansen Conegraon Tes The nex sep n our analyss was o conduc a es of conegraon whch helps o analyze he exsence or non-exsence of long run relaonshps among he varables. Before we employed he Johansen conegraon es, was mporan ha we deermne he opmal lag lengh because conegraon analyss s very sensve o lag lengh selecon. To deermne he approprae opmal lag for our model, he lag order selecon crera es was used. On he bass of hs es Adjused lkelhood rao (LR) creron, Fnal predcon error (FPE) creron, Akake nformaon creron (AIC), and Hannan-Qun nformaon creron (HQIC) all seleced lag lengh of 4, whle Schwarz Bayesan nformaon creron (SBIC) seleced lag lengh of. Ths sudy chose lag lengh of 4 because was chosen by all he selecon crera excep one. Afer he approprae lag lengh had been chosen, Johansen conegraon es was hen conduced. The null hypohess of a mos r conegrang vecors n our sysem s esed agans he alernave hypohess of r+1 conegrang vecors. The resuls for he Johansen conegraon es are repored n Table. From he resuls for hs es, race sasc reveal ha he null hypohess of a mos hree conegrang vecors (r 3) could no be rejeced a he.5 level of sgnfcance. Ths s confrmed by he fac ha race sasc s.44 whch s less han s correspondng crcal value of 3.76 a he.5 level of sgnfcance. 78 Page

6 Afrcan Journal of Economc Revew, Volume III, Issue, July 15 Table : The Johansen conegraon es resuls Null hypohess Alernave Trace Sasc Crcal values hypohess r= r= r 1 r= r r= r 3 r=3.44* 3.76 Source: Auhors compuaon, 15 * denoes he number of conegrang vecors seleced by Trace sascs 3.3 Granger Causaly Tes Resuls The Johansen conegraon es confrmed ha here s a long run relaonshp beween varables. The exsence of long run relaonshp among he varables mples causaly bu does no show s drecon. As we menoned earler he drecon of causaly can be observed by conducng a jon es of lnear hypohess o deermne f varable a all s lags Granger-causes anoher varable afer he VEC model has been esmaed. We used he saonary me seres n her frs dfference form for GDP, EXP, LAB and DI. Table 3 repors he resuls for he shor run or weak Granger causaly es conduced whn he VEC mechansm for he specfcaons lsed n he able. Table 3: Shor run (Weak) Granger Causaly Tes Resuls Drecon of The Null Ch-Square P-value Decson (H) Causaly Hypoheses EXP GDP H : Accep LAB GDP H : Accep DI GDP H : Accep GDP EXP H : 9.76**.7 Rejec LAB EXP H : Accep DI EXP H : 1.**.169 Rejec GDP DI H : ***. Rejec EXP DI H : Accep LAB DI H : Accep GDP LAB H : ***.9 Rejec EXP LAB H : ***.3 Rejec DI LAB H : *.736 Rejec Source: Auhors compuaon, 15 Noe: ***, ** and * denoe rejecon of he null hypohess a 1%, 5% and 1% levels of sgnfcance respecvely The shor run Granger causaly es resuls n Table 3 reveal no any evdence of shor run bdreconal causaly beween he varables under nvesgaon. However, here are evdences of undreconal shor run causaly runnng from GDP o EXP, from DI o EXP, from GDP o DI, from GDP o LAB, from EXP o LAB, and from DI o LAB. The resuls confrm ha GDP Granger-causes EXP, DI, and LAB n he shor run because her correspondng p-values are less han he.1 and.5 levels of sgnfcance. Ye agan, he shor run Granger causaly resuls confrm ha DI Granger-causes boh EXP and LAB snce her correspondng p-values are less ha he.5 and.1 levels of sgnfcance respecvely. 79 Page

7 Afrcan Journal of Economc Revew, Volume III, Issue, July 15 EXP Granger-causes LAB n he shor run because he correspondng p-value s less han he.1 level of sgnfcance. The shor run Granger causaly resuls n Table 3 furher reveal ha here s no any evdence of shor run undreconal causaly runnng from EXP o GDP, from LAB o GDP, from DI o GDP, from LAB o EXP, from EXP o DI, and from LAB o DI snce her correspondng p-values are greaer han he.1,.5, and.1 levels of sgnfcance. The Long run Granger causaly es was also conduced so ha for each dependen varable f he Ch-square sasc s sgnfcan a he.1,.5, or.1levels of sgnfcance, hen would mply ha he correspondng error correcon erm s sgnfcan. The sgnfcance of he error correcon erm ndcaes he evdence of long run Granger causaly runnng from he lagged ndependen varables o he dependen varable. The resuls for hs es are repored n Table 4. Table 4: Long run Granger Causaly Tes Resuls Drecon of The Null Ch-Square P-value Decson (H) Causaly Hypoheses ECT-1 GDP H : Accep ECT-1 EXP H : 11.75***.6 Rejec ECT-1 LAB H : ***. Rejec ECT-1 DI H : Accep Source: Compued by he Auhors, 15 Noe: *** denoe rejecon of he null hypohess a 1% level of sgnfcance. The long run Granger causaly es resuls n Table 4 reveal ha here s long run causaly runnng from he lagged ndependen varables GDP, DI, and LAB o he dependen varable EXP. Ths s confrmed by he sgnfcance of he error correcon erm (ECT) a he.1 level of sgnfcance. There s also evdence of long run causaly runnng from he lagged ndependen varables GDP, EXP, and DI o LAB snce he p-value for he error correcon erm s less han he.1 level of sgnfcance. However, he long run Granger causaly es resuls dd no reveal any evdence of long run causaly runnng from he lagged ndependen varables EXP, DI, and LAB o GDP, and from GDP, EXP, and LAB o DI snce her correspondng p-values are greaer han he.1,.5, and.1 levels of sgnfcance. The shor run and long run Granger causaly ess gave us anoher opporuny o conduc anoher causaly es whch s he srong Granger causaly es. Ths es, as Acaravc and Ozurk (1) opne, s conduced by esng he null hypohess ha boh he coeffcen esmaes of a ceran varable and ha of he error correcon erm are equal o zero. If hese coeffcen esmaes are zero, mples ha here s no srong causaly beween he varables esed. The resuls from our analyss for hs es are revealed n Table 5 for all he specfcaons lsed n. 8 Page

8 Afrcan Journal of Economc Revew, Volume III, Issue, July 15 Table 5: Srong Granger Causaly Tes Resuls Drecon of The Null Ch-Square P-value Decson (H) Causaly Hypoheses EXP, ECT-1 GDP H : Accep LAB,ECT-1 GDP H : Accep DI, ECT-1 GDP H : Accep GDP, ECT-1 EXP H : ***.1 Rejec LAB, ECT-1 EXP H : 5.8***. Rejec DI, ECT-1 EXP H : ***.41 Rejec GDP, ECT-1 DI H : ***. Rejec EXP, ECT-1 DI H : Accep LAB, ECT-1 DI H : 3 13.**.1 Rejec GDP,ECT-1 LAB H : ***.8 Rejec EXP, ECT-1 LAB H : ***.3 Rejec DI, ECT-1 LAB H : ***.3 Rejec Source: Auhors compuaon, 15 Noe: *** and * denoe rejecon of he null hypohess a 1% and 5% levels of sgnfcance respecvely Table 5 reveals ha here s srong bdreconal causaly beween EXP and LAB snce he correspondng p-values are less han he.1 level of sgnfcance. There s also srong bdreconal causaly beween DI and LAB snce he correspondng p-values are less han he.1 and.5 levels of sgnfcance. These evdences of bdreconal causaly sugges ha here s srong causaly runnng from EXP o LAB and also reversng back agan o EXP. Lkewse, here s srong causaly runnng from DI o LAB and back agan o DI. The es resuls also reveal ha here s srong undreconal causaly runnng from GDP o EXP snce he correspondng p-value s less han he.1 level of sgnfcance, hence supporng he GDP growh-drven expors hypohess for Tanzana. There s srong undreconal causaly runnng from DI o EXP as he correspondng p-value s less han he.5 level of sgnfcance, hence supporng ha agrculural expors growh of Tanzana s led by domesc nvesmen. The domesc nvesmen of Tanzana s drven by GDP growh as he resuls n Table 5 reveal srong undreconal causaly runnng from GDP o DI, whch s confrmed by he jon sgnfcance of coeffcen esmaes for GDP and he correspondng error correcon erm a he.1 level of sgnfcance. There s also srong causaly runnng from GDP o LAB confrmed by he jon sgnfcance of he coeffcen esmaes of GDP and ha of he correspondng error correcon erm a he.1 level of sgnfcance. However, he es resuls dd no fnd any evdence of srong causaly runnng from EXP o GDP, from LAB o GDP, from DI o GDP, and from EXP o DI snce her correspondng p-values are greaer han he.1,.5, and.1 levels of sgnfcance. Ths mples ha he coeffcen esmaes for he varables and ha of he correspondng error correcon erm are jonly nsgnfcan. 81 Page

9 Afrcan Journal of Economc Revew, Volume III, Issue, July Concluson Ths sudy amed a examnng he causal relaonshp beween agrculural expors and economc growh of Tanzana usng Johansen es of conegraon and Granger causaly whn VECM. Agrculural expors were chosen manly because hey are sgnfcanly counry s expors o nernaonal markes. Oher varables were ncluded n he model o srenghen he analyss by avodng based causales and oher nferences ha may resul when only bvaraes are used. The sudy resuls revealed ha he expor-led growh hypohess was no suppored n Tanzana. The rejecon of he expor led growh hypohess s no all ha surprsng, consderng ha he rade polcy revews began n and he polcy came no effec n 3. These revews of he recen pas could no show mpac n he economy for hs shor perod of me. The sudy fndngs conradc he emprcal resuls of Shombe (8) who suppored he expor-led growh hypohess n Tanzana. The dfferences n he emprcal resuls of hese wo sudes may have been caused by he dfferences n he reamen of daa. Shombe (8) dsaggregaed he GDP no agrculural and manufacurng whle hs sudy used oal GDP. 8 Page

10 Afrcan Journal of Economc Revew, Volume III, Issue, July 15 REFERENCES Acaravc, A., & Ozurk, I. (1). Foregn Drec Invesmen, Expor and Economc Growh: Emprcal Evdence From New EU Counres. Romanan Journal of Economc Forecasng /1, pp Al-Yousf, Y.K. (1999). On he role of expors n he economc growh of Malayasa: A mulvarae analyss. Inernaonal Economc Journal, Vol 13, Balassa, B. (1978). Expors and Economc growh: Furher evdence. Journal of Developmen Economcs, Casro Zunga, H. (4). Expor-led Growh n Honduras and he Cenral Amercan Regon Thess, Lousana Sae Unversy [Avalable onlne a hp://ed.lsu.edu/docs/avalable/ed ] Dreger, C. (11). A furher examnaon of he expor-led. Oder: European Unversy Vadrna Frankfur. Emlo, J. (1). Is he expor led growh hypohess vald for developng counres? A case of Cosa rca. Geneva: Uned Naons Conference on Tradeand Developmen. ESRF. (9). Growh secors and growh drvers: A suaonal Analyss repor. Uned Republc of Tanzana. Feder, G. (1983). On expors and economc growh:. Journal of developmen economcs, Vol 11, Gles, J. and Wllams, C.L. (). Expor Led Growh: A survey of Emprcal Leraure and some Non-causaly resuls par 1. Journal of Inernaonal Trade & Economc Developmen, 9(3), Henrques, I. and Sadorsky, P. (1996). "Expor-Led Growh or growh-drven Expors? The canadan Case". The Canadan Journal of Economcs Vol 9, No.3, Hernandez, A.R. (11). Can Asans Susan an Expor-led Growh sraegy n he Afermah of he Global Crss? An Emprcal Exploraon: avalable onlne [Avalable onlne a hp:// Rereved Aprl Saurday, 1 Keesng, D.B. (1967). Ouward-lookng polces and economc developmen. Economc Journal 77, Krueger, A. (1985). The experence and lessons of Asa super exporers. In Corbo, V., Krueger, A.O. and Ossa, F.(eds). Epor-orened developmen sraeges: The Successof Fve Newly Indusralzed. Manzoor, H. (9). Causal relaonshp beween expors and Agrculural GDP n Paksan. Submed for Second Inernaonal Economcs Conference (Faculy of Busness, Economcs & Polcy Sudes, Unversy Brune Darussalam). Merza, E. (7). Ol expors, Non ol Expors and Economc growh: Tme seres analyss for Kuwa Kansas: Kansas sae Unversy. Mshra, D. (9). The Dynamcs of Relaonshp beween expors. Inernaonal Journal of Economc Scences and Appled Research 4 (): Narayan, P., & Smyh, R. (8). Energy consumpon and real GDP n G7 counres: new evdence from panel conegraon wh srucural breaks. Energy Economcs, 3, pp Odhambo, N. M. (9). Energy consumpon and economc growh nexus n Tanzana: An ARDL bounds esng approach. Energy Polcy, 37, pp Shombe, N.H. (8). Causaly Relaonshps beween Toal Expors wh Agrculural and Manufacurng GDP n Tanzana Insue of Developmen Economes, Dscusson paper No Page

11 Afrcan Journal of Economc Revew, Volume III, Issue, July 15 Snoha-Lopee, R. (6). "Expor - Led Growh n Souhern Afrca." Thess, Lousana Sae unversy.avalable a [hp://ed.isu.edu/doc/avalable/ed ] Rereved on 1 may 1. UNCTAD. (). Polcy ssues n nernaonal rade and commodes sudy seres no 19. UNCTAD. (7). Handbook of Sascs. Geneva: Uned Naons. URT. (). Tanzana Agrculure: performance and sraeges for susanable Growh. URT. (1). Agrculural Secor Developmen sraegy. Dar es salaam. URT. (9). Tanzana Naonal Expor Sraegy, To susan developmen and wealh creaon hrough expor-led growh n lne wh MKUKUTA goals and cluser sraeges. 84 Page