SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION"

Transcription

1 Supplementary Methods & Results. Model fitting of frequency distributions We tested the robustness of power law model fits to the move step frequency distributions for the seven species using two approaches: () comparison of the power law and exponential model fits to logarithmically binned move-step frequency distribution data, and (2) model fits to rank-frequency plot data. Power law versus exponential models. Support for a power-law fit to the observed data indicates move steps are best described by Lévy-like processes, whereas strong support for an exponential fit suggests where Brownian (random) motion probably dominates at the long-term limit. To determine the relative support of the power-law model versus an exponential model, we fitted a linear model to log N(x) ~ log x (power) and to log N(x) ~ x (exponential). We used an estimate of Kullback-Leibler (K-L) information loss to assign relative strengths of evidence to the different competing models, that is, Akaike s information criterion corrected for small sample sizes (AIC c ). This index of model parsimony identifies the relative evidence of model(s) from a set of candidate models. The relative likelihoods of candidate models were calculated using AIC c weights, with the weight (waic c ) of any particular model varying from (no support) to (complete support) relative to the entire model set. Model goodness-of-fit was assessed by calculating the % deviance explained (%DE) relative to the null (intercept) model. Models were run on the normalised average movestep values over all individuals (Supplementary Table 3) and with all individuals pooled (Supplementary Table 4). To account for variation among individuals for each species considered, we also fitted generalized linear mixed-effect models (GLMM) of the same form to the data using the lmer function (lme4 library) in the R Package 2. The term individual was coded as a random factor, and we used a Gaussian error distribution and the identity link function (Supplementary Table 5).

2 The results (Supplementary Tables 3-5) for all datasets (individual values averaged, individuals pooled, and GLMM) confirm that the power-law model to observed move-step frequency data is strongly supported for basking shark (Cetorhinus maximus), bigeye tuna (Thunnus obesus), cod (Gadus morhua), leatherback turtle (Dermochelys coriacea) and Magellanic penguin (Spheniscus magellanicus). In contrast, model fits for southern elephant seal (Mirounga leonina) data were best supported by the exponential model. This suggests the foraging diving movements of this marine mammal were not described purely by Lévy-like processes and that other movement types predominated, such as an ordinary random walk. Model fits to the small spotted catshark (Scyliorhinus canicula) logarithmically binned data supported the power law over the exponential model, however rank-frequency plotting of only move steps greater than the body length of the animal indicated the exponential model to be relatively better (see below). This suggests that the presence of power-law like patterns may be marginal for some species. Cumulative distributions. The second method we used to investigate the underlying form of the move step distributions of the seven species studied was to construct cumulative distribution histograms or rank-frequency plots 3,4. A rank-frequency plot in the context of this study displays a cumulative distribution of the number of move step lengths that are greater than or equal to any move step, s, each plotted against the respective move step length. This plotting method has the potential advantage of avoiding some histogram binning issues when determining the Lévy exponent 4 and takes account of all the data points during line fitting 3. However, a little realised weakness of using the rank-frequency plot method with animal movement data when testing for the presence of Lévy processes, is the assumption that a power law of any exponent will yield a straight line on a log-log plot of rank frequency versus move step length. Simulation studies show that when μ 2, curvilinear plots can predominate 4,5. Similarly, tests of empirical data identify strong putative power law forms in the heavy 2

3 tails of curvilinear rank-frequency plots 6 suggesting it should not be assumed that curvilinear rank-frequency plots do not possess Lévy-like properties. In the case of simulated data, this curvilinearity arises due to the realistic imposition of a maximum step length to the steps drawn from the Lévy power law. The maximum step length is realistic and an unavoidable feature of real animal movement data because it reflects physiological limits, such as the maximum swimming speed of an animal, which in turn determines how far it can move per unit time (Lévy walk) or between turns (Lévy flight). This is potentially an important problem for air-breathing species in particular because extremely long move step lengths are constrained by maximum diving depths and durations. For example, a species which regularly pushes itself to its physiological diving limits (e.g., southern elephant seal) is expected to have fewer deep and long dives than predicted by a purely Lévy distribution. Thus, a downward curving relationship using the rank-frequency method is expected. The maximum step length will also be limited by environmental factors such as the depth of water available to the animal during diving, where, for example, shallow depths reduce the maximum step length possible compared to deeper seabed depths. These influences have the effect of introducing considerable bias, for example, away from fewer data in a distribution s tail compared with the left-hand side of the distribution. This bias is not controlled for as it is when model fitting with normalised logarithmically binned data, where all data points are equidistant and have equal weighting. Consequently, some caution 5 is needed when model fitting to rank-frequency plots to ensure important components of the data set with fewer data are accounted for within a particular model; in this study, the heavy tails of the move-step frequency distribution have few data but are important for identifying the presence of Lévy-type walks. For air-breathers in particular, it may be prudent to define an upper percentile of the move step lengths to avoid rare extreme values. 3

4 It is apparent that curvilinear plots in addition to those with a straight-line form may approximate Lévy-like processes summarised in rank-frequency plots. Because of this we chose to contrast three models describing the relationship between the log rank and log move step distribution described above: () a linear model [log (y) ~ log (x)] indicative of a power law, (2) an exponential model [log (y) ~ (x)] indicating more Brownian-like movement and (3) a quadratic model [log (y) ~ log (x)+log(x) 2 ] describing intermediate behaviour. Although there is no particular statistical or biological justification for the quadratic model, it is the simplest (i.e., most parsimonious) alternative model that tests the explicit hypothesis that the relationship between rank and frequency is neither strictly linear nor exponential. We contrasted the three models using the dimension-consistent Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) because the K-L prior used to justify AIC c weighting (see above) can favour more complex models when sample sizes are large 7, such as those used in the rank-frequency comparisons (n = 866 to 299 ranks). Relative likelihoods of the three candidate models were calculated using BIC weights. The log-log cumulative distribution plot of krill (Euphausia superba) density change showed a straight-line form that is consistent with a power law (Fig. 2c; Supplementary Table 6, Fig. d). There was no effect on μ of using log-transformed versus non-transformed raw data to derive krill density changes (Supplementary Fig. 2). Similar straight-line forms were seen in cumulative distributions for predators such as Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) and leatherback turtle (Dermochelys coriacea), with some curvature emerging in the rank-frequency plots for basking sharks (Cetorhinus maximus), bigeye tuna (Thunnus obesus) and Magellanic penguin (Spheniscus magellanicus) (Supplementary Fig. a-c, e, g, h). According to BIC weights, all individuals (or krill density) except the catshark (Supplementary Fig. i) and southern elephant seal (Supplementary Fig. f) showed overwhelming support for the quadratic model, despite it having an extra parameter relative to the linear or exponential model 4

5 (Supplementary Table 7). There was virtually no support for the linear model in any individual (or krill density) relative to the other models, although in both prey and major predators (basking shark, Atlantic cod, leatherback turtle, Magellanic penguin) the percentage deviance explained was relatively high for the linear model, and in these species cases was higher than that obtained for the exponential model (Supplementary Table 6, 7). Catshark and elephant seal demonstrated strongest support for the exponential model, but for all other predators and prey the quadratic model was better supported, indicating intermediate behaviour and Lévy-like movement as assessed using rank-frequency plots. These results serve to demonstrate two important points. First, curvilinear rankfrequency plots can describe Lévy (power law) processes 4,5,6. In this study, scaleinvariant properties of movement patterns of basking shark, bigeye tuna, Atlantic cod, leatherback turtle and Magellanic penguin were identified using several methods (logarithmic binning with normalisation; root mean square fluctuation; power spectrum analysis) in addition to rank-frequency plots, thereby reducing the probability of not identifying Lévy-like behaviour even when they are present. The second point concerns model selection and whether Lévy behaviour is identified within movement (or density) time series. For example, it could have been concluded that the exponential model was relatively better than the linear (power law) model in some cases simply because other intermediate models were not tested. By assessing fits to only two models therefore, and if the exponential model was favoured in such a comparison, it would have been concluded that those time series of animal movements were purely random (exponential form to the rank-frequency plot) rather than displaying a Lévy pattern (power law straight or curvilinear form), even though other models, implying more complex and realistic properties, perhaps comprising elements of both move patterns, may be more appropriate. 5

6 Using these methods we show that the foraging movement patterns of the five species were power-law-like and therefore not purely random. Some curvature of the rank-frequency plot in some species may represent Lévy behaviour where μ 2, or may indicate the presence of Lévy-like movements in addition to other movement types and which for the case of rank-frequency plots were strongly supported by quadratic model fits to the data. The plotting results we show suggest that the different move-step distributions observed among marine vertebrate predators are probably not only due to different evolutionary and life history traits, but may also be a consequence of the complex movements these animals use during foraging in relation to complex and changeable prey landscapes. Hence, several distribution types may be possible within a species move-step time series if, as they seem to, individuals demonstrate flexibility in their foraging strategy 8. In this sense, moderate curvature in rank-frequency plots may be common among foragers and may resemble an intermediate form describing Lévylike processes.. Burnham, K. P. & Anderson, D. R. Model Selection and Multimodal Inference: A Practical Information-Theoretic Approach (Springer-Verlag, New York, USA, 22). 2. R Development Core Team. R: A language and environment for statistical computing ( 24). 3. Newman, M.E.J. Power laws, Pareto distributions and Zipf s law. Contemp. Phys. 46, (25). 4. Sims, D.W., Righton, D. & Pitchford, J.W. Minimizing errors in identifying Lévy flight behaviour of organisms. J. Anim. Ecol. 76, (27). 5. Bradshaw, C.J.A & Sims, D.W. Solutions to problems associated with identifying Lévy walk patterns in animal movement data. Ecol. Applic. (submitted). 6. Clauset, A., Shalizi, C.R. & Newman, M.E.J. Power-law distributions in empirical data. E-print (June 27). arxiv physics/

7 7. Link, W.A. & Barker, R.J. Model weights and the foundations of multimodel inference. Ecology 87, (26). 8. Hays, G.C. Hobson, V.J., Metcalfe, J.D., Righton, D., Sims, D.W. Flexible foraging movements of leatherback turtles across the North Atlantic Ocean. Ecology 87, (26). 7

8 Supplementary Methods & Results 2. Projections of 3D Lévy movements Our results refer to the distribution of vertical movements, whereas in reality the organisms are free to move in a three-dimensional (3D) ocean. Here we argue that, for a forager following an isotropic Lévy search pattern, analysis of depth data is sufficient to identify the existence of a scaling law and to recover the Lévy exponent. Suppose an organism performs a random walk in three dimensions (3D); at each time step dt it takes a move step of length R in a random direction (i.e. there is no correlation or bias), where R is distributed with some probability density f(x). We then ask what will be the observed distribution of move steps when this 3D movement is projected into some fixed vertical 2D plane. This question is answered in general by considering the absolute angle of elevation θ of each move step relative to that plane, and noticing that the projected move step is simply Rcos(θ), a product of two independent random variables. Since θ is uniform on [; π/2], the inverse transform method shows that cos(θ), which is necessarily non-negative since we are concerned with projected distances and absolute angles of elevation, is distributed with density function 2 g( y) =, π 2 y given by where y. The probability density for the projected move step, h(x), is then f y g x y h x ( ) ( / ) ( ) = dy. y If R has a power law distribution, so that α α x f ( x) =, xmin xmin 8

9 and the organism follows a Lévy flight in 3D, then the distribution of projected move steps is α α x Γ( α / 2) h ( x) = xmin xmin π Γ(( α + ) / 2) provided x x min and where Γ(.) is the standard gamma function and is independent of x. Therefore, the projected move step distribution follows a power law with an unchanged exponent at all scales greater than the minimum move step. Note that the projection from 3D into 2D can lead to observations of steps lengths smaller than x min x min ; these observations at the smallest scales do not obey a power law. Supplementary Fig. 7 provides a concrete illustration: million random 3D steps are taken from a power law distribution with α = 2.7 and =. and are projected into 2D (red crosses). The blue line shows the predicted distribution of the projected steps, and the parallel green line shows the original 3D distribution. x min Exactly the same argument can then be applied to show that the projection of these 2D Lévy random walk steps into a single vertical dimension also preserves the general scaling law with an unchanged exponent; again the isotropy of the original random walk ensures that the angle of elevation is distributed uniformly, and the mathematical argument can be repeated without modification. It is important to note that this invariance under projection is not a general feature of random walks. For example, if R is constant (i.e., all steps are of equal length in 3D) then the projection method shows that the projected 2D move steps are distributed as h( x) = Rπ 2 x R

10 This distribution is strongly biased in favour of small move steps and (of course) move step can never exceed R. It never resembles a power law distribution over any part of its range. Similarly, if the move step is exponentially distributed with parameter β then the projection distribution is βx 2 2β h( x) = β exp dv = Bk (, βx) v 2 πv v π where B k is a modified Bessel function of the second kind. Again, such a distribution does not exhibit power law behaviour; large move steps are underrepresented.. Rohatgi, V. K. An introduction to Probability Theory and Mathematical Statistics (Wiley, New York, 976).

11 Supplementary Methods & Results 3. Detailed description of the simulations output We simulated a predator s vertical diving movements described by a Lévy walk to encounter prey patches positioned within the water column according to Lévy or random distributions. Lévy searches (μ opt = 2.) reflecting marine predator movements within Lévy (fractal)-distributed prey fields (LL) were compared with encounter rates in random landscapes (LR) (defined here as a prey distribution resulting from a homogeneous spatial Poisson process). Our expectation is that the foraging success ratio LL:LR should not deviate substantially from. if adapting to a fractal prey field presents no particular foraging advantage to a Lévy searcher. Foraging performance varied between replicates but was on average 4 % greater when patch size was fixed, and 9 % greater for virtual foragers in seascapes where patch size varied according to a Lévy distribution (Supplementary Fig. a,b). The observed variance in LL:LR ratio was not evident between three repeats within the same prey field of each replicate (Supplementary Fig. ), or with overall biomass available within a prey field (Supplementary Fig. c). Instead, it appears that variance was related to the specific differences in distribution between different prey field types. To confirm whether distributional relationships of different prey patches influenced foraging success, we compared foragers in prey fields of the same type and overall biomass, but with differing amounts of prey patch dispersion (Supplementary Fig. d). Results show that when prey patches were highly clustered foraging success of both straight-line (ballistic) and Lévy walk foragers (Supplementary Fig. d: BL and LL ) was generally lower (by ~5 %) compared with Lévy foragers in more dispersed fractal fields (LL 2 and LL 3 ) (Supplementary Fig. 2a). As expected, we found simulated Lévy-type foraging in a random field yielded lower encounter success than in more natural fractal fields (LL 2 and LL 3 ).

12 We conducted a second set of simulations with random walkers searching in Lévy (fractal)-distributed prey fields (RL) compared with random prey distributions (RR) to examine whether a random walker would achieve a foraging advantage in fractal versus random prey fields (foraging success ratio, RL:RR). The random walk was parameterised with a maximum vertical step length of 25 which yielded path lengths of equivalent magnitude (that is, the total distance moved) to simulated Lévy walkers. Results showed that the RL:RR foraging success ratio was closer to. than those found for both the LL:LR cases simulated (RL:RR ratio x =.99 ±.3 S.D.; n = sets of simulations) (Table ). This indicates that the foraging advantage of a random walk in a fractal environment is similar to that in a random landscape and not equal to the encounter success identified in simulations examining the LL:LR case. A third set of simulations completed this analysis by comparing random walkers searching in Lévy (fractal)-distributed prey fields (RL) with Lévy searchers (μ opt = 2.) within fractal landscapes (LL). This direct comparison tests whether random searchers can outperform Lévy foragers in a fractal landscape. Results gave a RL:LL ratio of <. (RL:LL ratio x =.89 ±.4 S.D.; n = sets of simulations) indicating that a random searcher encounters about % less prey than a Lévy forager in the same fractal field. The results of the three simulation tests are therefore consistent with the hypothesis that a Lévy strategy may be more efficient in complex natural environments than an ordinary random strategy. 2

13 Supplementary Table Summary details of electronic tags deployed Species Area Tag type** Record Resolution n data Ref. (approx. body size*) ing interval (m) sets (min) Basking shark (TL, m) Northeas tatlantic WC PAT3/4. min.5 6 Small Northeas LTK spotted tatlantic LTD24 catshark (M,. kg) Bigeye tuna North WC Mk (M, 4 kg) Pacific NMT Atlantic cod North LTK (M, ~5 kg) Sea LTD2 Leatherback turtle (CL, ~.5 m) North Atlantic SO DST Milli Magellanic penguin (M, 4 kg) South Atlantic D & K DST.7. 7 R.P. Wilson, unpubl. data Southern Southern WC Mk7 & elephant Ocean TDR seal (M, ~45 kg) *Body size: TL, total length; M, mass; CL, curved carapace length. 3

14 ** Tag manufacturers: D & K, Driesen and Kern; LTK, Lotek Wireless; NMT, Northwest Marine Technologies; SO, Star Oddi; WC, Wildlife Computers. Tag type: PAT, pop-up archival transmitting tag; LTD, light-temperature-depth datalogger; DST, data storage tag; TDR, timedepth recorder.. Sims, D.W., Southall, E.J., Richardson, A.J., Reid, P.C., Metcalfe, J.D. Seasonal movements and behaviour of basking sharks from archival tagging: no evidence of winter hibernation. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 248, (23). 2. Sims, D.W., Wearmouth, V.J., Southall, E.J., Hill, J., Moore, P., Rawlinson, K., Hutchinson, N., Budd, G.C., Righton, D., Metcalfe, J.D, Nash, J.P. & Morritt, D. Hunt warm, rest cool: bioenergetic strategy underlying diel vertical migration in a benthic shark. J. Anim. Ecol. 75, 76-9 (26). 3. Musyl, M.K., Brill, R.W., Boggs, C.H., Curran, D.S., Kazama, T.K. & Seki, M.P. Vertical movements of bigeye tuna (Thunnus obesus) associated with islands, buoys, and seamounts near the main Hawaiian Islands from archival tagging. Fish. Oceanogr. 2, (23). 4. Righton, D., Metcalfe, J.D. & Connolly, P. Fisheries: Different behaviour of North and Irish Sea cod. Nature 4,56 (2). 5. Myers, A.E. & Hays, G.C. Do leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) forage during the breeding season? A combination of novel and traditional data logging devices provide new insights. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 322, (26). 6. Bradshaw, C.J.A., Hindell, M.A., Sumner, M.D. & Michael, K.J. Loyalty pays: potential life history consequences of fidelity to marine foraging regions by southern elephant seals. Anim. Behav. 68, (24). 4

15 Supplementary Table 2 Summary of the Lévy exponent data for five species Species Lévy Upper Lower Regression Step length range (m) exponent 95% CI 95% CI coefficient (r 2 ) Lower Upper Cetorhinus maximus Thunnus obesus Gadus morhua Dermochelys coriacea Spheniscus magellanicus Parameters were derived from least-squares linear regression of normalised log-log move steplength frequency distribution plots of pooled species data (shown in Fig. ) for which there was reliable support for power-law-like move step distributions (see Supplementary Methods and Discussion). Lower move step length in the range was taken as the lowest value bin in the histogram. 5

16 Supplementary Table 3 Comparison of power law and exponential models for individual values averaged Species Power law %DE-PL Exponential %DE-EXP Cetorhinus maximus Dermochelys coriacea > < Gadus morhua Mirounga leonina Scyliorhinus canicula Spheniscus magellanicus > <. 83. Thunnus obesus Akaike s information criterion corrected for small sample sizes weights (waic c ) and % deviance explained (%DE) for two contrasted models: power-law (PL) and exponential (EXP) for the move step distributions of the seven species analysed (average values over all individuals). 6

17 Supplementary Table 4 Comparison of power law and exponential models for individual pooled values Species Power law %DE-PL Exponential %DE-EXP Cetorhinus maximus > <. 66. Dermochelys coriacea > < Gadus morhua > < Mirounga leonina <. 9. > Scyliorhinus canicula Spheniscus magellanicus > < Thunnus obesus > < Akaike s information criterion corrected for small sample sizes weights (waic c ) and % deviance explained (%DE) for two contrasted models: power-law (PL) and exponential (EXP) for the move step distributions of the seven species analysed (average values over all individuals). 7

18 Supplementary Table 5 Comparison of power law and exponential models Species Power law Exponential Cetorhinus maximus >.999 <. Dermochelys coriacea >.999 <. Gadus morhua >.999 <. Mirounga leonina <. >.999 Scyliorhinus canicula Spheniscus magellanicus >.999 <. Thunnus obesus >.999 <. Akaike s information criterion corrected for small sample sizes weights (waic c ) and % deviance explained (%DE) for two contrasted generalised linear mixed-effects models (GLMM): powerlaw (PL) and exponential (EXP), coding individual as a random factor, for the move step distributions of the seven species analysed. 8

19 Supplementary Table 6 Contrast of linear (power law), exponential and quadratic models of rank-frequency plots using Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC) weights Species Linear Exponential Quadratic Euphausia superba <. <. ~. Cetorhinus maximus <. <. ~. Cetorhinus maximus 2 <. <. ~. Dermochelys coriacea <. <. ~. Gadus morhua <. <. ~. Mirounga leonina <. ~. <. Scyliorhinus canicula <. ~. <. Spheniscus magellanicus <. <. ~. Thunnus obesus <. <. ~. Numerals following Cetorhinus maximus denote different individuals. 9

20 Supplementary Table 7 Maximum log-likelihood and % deviance explained for linear (power law), exponential and quadratic models Species LL-lin LL-exp LL-quad %DElin %DEexp %DEquad Euphausia superba Cetorhinus maximus Cetorhinus maximus Dermochelys coriacea Gadus morhua Mirounga leonina Scyliorhinus canicula Spheniscus magellanicus Thunnus obesus Numerals following Cetorhinus maximus denote different individuals. 2

21 Supplementary Figure Supplementary Figure Rank-frequency plots for a prey and seven predator species. a, Three model fits to the cumulative distributions (circles) for (a,b) move steps of two basking shark individuals (Cetorhinus maximus), (c) leatherback turtle (Dermochelys coriacea), (d) krill density (Euphausia superba), (e) move steps of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), (f) southern elephant seal (Mirounga leonina), (g) Magellanic penguin (Spheniscus magellanicus), (h) bigeye tuna (Thunnus obesus), and (i) small spotted catshark (Scyliorhinus canicula). The rank-frequency plots of prey (krill density) and major predators (basking shark, leatherback turtle, Atlantic cod and Magellanic penguin) were of 2

22 a straight line form, but were most strongly supported by the quadratic model (green line) relative to the linear (power law) (black line) or exponential models (red line). This indicates predator movements and prey density were composed of Lévy-like processes. 22

23 Supplementary Figure 2 Log N (x) (normalised frequency) Log number of samples d Raw data untransformed a Log x (density, g m -2 ) Log x (density, log ([g m -2 ]+)) b μ =.56 r 2 =.98 μ =.62 r 2 = Raw data log-transformed Log krill density, d (g m -2 ) Log krill density, d (log ([g m -2 ]+)) c d μ =.66 r 2 =.99 μ =.64 r 2 =.97 Supplementary Figure 2 Comparison of μ for krill using untransformed and logtransformed raw data. Here we show that whether using untransformed (a, b) or log-transformed data (c, d) of krill density change, the effect on the estimation of the slope μ (black line, upper panels; blue line, lower panels) is small for both the histogram (a, c) and rank-frequency (b, d) techniques. 23

24 Supplementary Figure 3 a Log N(x) μ = 2.4 r 2 =.9-2 d Log N(x) μ =.9 r 2 = b Log N(x) μ = 2.4 r 2 = e Log N(x) μ =.7 r 2 =.9-2 c Log N(x) Log x μ = 2.2 r 2 =.95 f Log N(x) Log x Supplementary Figure 3 General Lévy-like scaling law among diverse marine vertebrates. Normalised log-log plots of the step-length frequency distribution P(l j ) ~ l -μ j, where l j is the step length and μ the power law exponent, for individuals of (a) sub-adult and adult basking shark (Cetorhinus maximus), (b) bigeye tuna (Thunnus obesus), (c) Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), (d) leatherback turtle (Dermochelys coriacea) and (e) Magellanic penguin (Spheniscus magellanicus). Linear regression analysis for all individuals grouped by species gave power law exponents within ideal Lévy flight limits ( < 24

25 μ 3) and were close to the theoretical optimum μ ~ 2; (f) normalised log-log plot of step-length frequency distribution for a 2.5-m long young-of-the-year basking shark that shows a poor fit to a linear model (r 2 =.26). A frequency distribution of Lévy exponents for 24 individuals is given in Supplementary Fig

26 Supplementary Figure 4 Frequency Lévy exponent Supplementary Figure 4 Lévy-exponent frequency distribution for non-juvenile individuals of five species shown in Figure. Frequency distribution of calculated Lévy exponents for the 24 individual (non-juvenile) animals analysed. Note all exponents lie within Lévy limits with higher frequencies near the theoretical optimum μ ~

27 Supplementary Figure 5 a b Log F(t) Log F(t) α =.4 r 2 = c d e Log F(t) Log t Log t Supplementary Figure 5 Detection of long-range correlations in vertical movement time series. Root mean square (RMS) fluctuation plots averaged across individuals for (a) basking shark (Cetorhinus maximus), (b) bigeye tuna (Thunnus obesus) (α =.9), (c) Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) (α =.8), (d) leatherback turtle (Dermochelys coriacea) (α =.24) and (e) magellanic penguin (Spheniscus magellanicus) (α =.5). Least squares linear regression was used to determine α for each mean RMS of each species. All species examined have RMS α >.5 indicating the presence of long-range correlations typical of scale-invariant systems where α

28 Supplementary Figure 6 a b Log S(f) Log S(f) β = Log f β = Log f Supplementary Figure 6 Spectral analysis of animal movement and a prey field. Sum of the spectra against frequency for (a) leatherback turtle movements and (b) krill density changes both show β > in the low frequency regime indicating presence of long-range correlations typical of Lévy-like motion and scaleinvariant systems. The plateau in the spectra at intermediate frequencies in both a and b appears to separate low and high frequency domains, both with negative gradients. The plateau in a may signify the transition from short-term correlations in dive behaviour to long-term searching behaviour. In b, the 28

29 transition may be more closely related to long-term, large-scale patterns in density distributions in the low-frequency regime, whereas over small distances and time scales behavioural or fluid turbulent effects on krill density may become important. In support of this, a 2 h periodicity in the krill density data was found in a previous study (ref. 27 in the main paper) suggesting a tidal influence. 29

30 Supplementary Figure 7 Supplementary Figure 7 The distribution of simulated move steps from a powerlaw distribution, α = 2.7 and x min =.. The red crosses show the projected 2D step length distribution of million 3D steps. Notice that the projected length can be less than x min. The green line shows the original 3D step length distribution. The blue line shows the predicted distribution of the projected steps, the prediction of power law distributed lengths holds for all step lengths above x min. 3

31 Supplementary Figure 8 a Total zooplankton change (individuals m -3 ) Time series (sample interval, ~4 d) b Frequency Log N(x) Log x μ = 2. r 2 = Total zooplankton change (individuals m -3 ) Supplementary Figure 8 Macroscopic properties of total zooplankton density distribution. (a) Change in zooplankton density in a time series of vertical (oblique tow) samples (see below). (b) Step frequency distribution of change in zooplankton density follows a heavy-tailed power law with an exponent within Lévy limits and matching the theoretical optimum μ ~ 2. Note the similarity of intermittent pattern between zooplankton in (a) and krill densities in Fig. 2a. Total zooplankton sampled vertically by oblique-towed nets at station L4 was collected approximately every 4 days between January 988 and December 2 (L4 dataset at and was used to derive a time series of change in zooplankton abundance. 3

32 Supplementary Figure 9 Frequency Log N(x) Total zooplankton (g m -3 ) Log x μ =.8 r 2 =.92 Supplementary Figure 9 Zooplankton prey field sampled from basking shark feeding paths. The frequency distribution of change in zooplankton density between consecutive samples resembles a power law with a heavy tail reminiscent of a Lévy distribution. Inset: normalised log-log plot of the frequency distribution is within Lévy limits with an exponent close to the optimum μ ~ 2. The feeding path of the predator represents a horizontal series of samples of the prey environment, but that a power law-like pattern of prey densities emerges suggests: () the prey field sampled has a fractal-like pattern of densities, and (2) that the points visited by a Lévy-like predator such as the basking shark yield a power law-like pattern of prey densities which might be expected if a Lévy walk was adopted to find target sites varying in prey density. Zooplankton sampled from basking shark feeding paths were taken within a restricted area ( ºN and ºW) over 7 days between 26 May 2 June 23 in the western English Channel. The data set used comprised < samples so the apparent power law is under-sampled. Caution is needed in ascribing fractal processes to this particular prey field; nonetheless, the result is consistent with those found for the two other prey fields. 32

33 Supplementary Figure a b Foraging success (LL:LR ratio) Replicate number c d Foraging success (LL:LR ratio) Foraging success (biomass consumed /path length x 3 ) BL Biomass units LL LL 2 LL 3 LR Increasing dispersion Supplementary Figure Optimal foraging simulations. Lévy foraging movements were simulated in Lévy-like (fractal) prey fields (LL) and across landscapes with randomly distributed patches (LR). The ratio LL:LR defines the relative foraging success of Lévy foragers in natural (LL) compared with unnatural (LR) fields (N = 5 patches) with deviation above. signifying a potential selective advantage of predators in complex prey environments. a, Foraging success ratio of LL vs LR across replicates each comprising 3 repeats of, LL foragers vs, LR foragers when size of patches remains constant, and b, when prey patch varies according to a Lévy distribution. c, The variation in foraging success ratio evident in b and c was not attributable to the overall biomass units within prey patches. d, The effect on the 33

34 mean foraging success (± S.D.) of increasing dispersion altering the distribution characteristics in prey fields populated with the same number of prey patches and overall biomass. BL denotes a ballistic (straight line) forager in a more clustered Lévy-like field (see a schematic representation of the prey field above each histogram bar) compared with LL foragers in increasingly dispersed Lévy-like fields and in a random prey landscape. 34

35 Supplementary Figure.25 Foraging success ratio (LL:LR) A A2 A3 B B2 B3 C C2 C3 Repeat number Supplementary Figure Effect of prey patch distributional changes on foraging success. Foraging success of simulated Lévy foragers in fractal (Lévy-like) prey distributions (LL) compared with Lévy foragers in random prey fields (LR). Each repeat comprises, LL versus, LR with total biomass held constant between each of 3 runs (A-C). Total biomass (arbitrary units) in prey field: A, ; B,. 6 ; C,.2 6. Note the variation between repeats of each run is minimal but the variation between runs as a consequence of prey field distributional change (when biomass is held constant) is greater by comparison. 35

36 Supplementary Figure 2 a Inter-patch distance (arbitrary units) LL LL 2 LL 3 Random Fractal (Lévy) prey fields b Frequency (interpatch distance) Frequency (spatial density, patches per cell) Supplementary Figure 2 Patch geometry in simulated prey fields and relationship to spatial prey density. a, Plot to show how the distances between patches (N = 5) from left to right across a prey field of fixed overall biomass varies with different levels of dispersion referred to in Supplementary Figure. The fractal prey field LL is generated with a dispersion factor of 5 so interpatch distances are generally short with a few long distances between the highly clustered patches. LL 2 is generated with a dispersion factor of 2 (which 36

37 was used in all other simulation runs) and LL 3 with a factor of, each showing progressively longer inter-patch distances dominating the Lévy distribution. For comparison, the random prey field shows an average interpatch distance that visually but not statistically resembles the LL 3 prey field in 2- D. Summary statistics (n = 49 steps per field): LL, x = 6.4 ± S.D.; LL 2, x = 3.62 ± S.D.; LL 3, x = 46.8 ± S.D.; Random, x = 7.23 ± S.D. b, The frequency distribution of inter-patch distances is positively correlated with the frequency of patch spatial density for simulated fractal prey field LL 2 (Pearson correlation coefficient, r =.98, P <.). For field LL 2, a frequency distribution of inter-patch distances (with six equidistant bins) was correlated with a frequency distribution of spatial patch density with the same bin number. The highest frequency of one method correlated with the highest frequency of the other (i.e. lowest spatial density vs smallest inter-patch distances), and so on to the lowest frequency bins. This shows there is congruence between the inter-patch distance method we used to derive prey fields in the simulation program, and the empirical measurements of prey density analysed. Therefore, comparing empirical and simulated results is reasonable as either method can summarise adequately for our purposes the underlying pattern in a prey field. 37

Complex Systems Methods 11. Power laws an indicator of complexity?

Complex Systems Methods 11. Power laws an indicator of complexity? Complex Systems Methods 11. Power laws an indicator of complexity? Eckehard Olbrich e.olbrich@gmx.de http://personal-homepages.mis.mpg.de/olbrich/complex systems.html Potsdam WS 2007/08 Olbrich (Leipzig)

More information

The Lévy Flight Foraging Hypothesis

The Lévy Flight Foraging Hypothesis The Lévy Flight Foraging Hypothesis Viswanathan et al. (1999) proposed that predators may use Lévy flights when searching for prey that is sparsely and unpredictably distributed. Distances traveled when

More information

JIMAR PFRP ANNUAL REPORT FOR FY 2007

JIMAR PFRP ANNUAL REPORT FOR FY 2007 JIMAR PFRP ANNUAL REPORT FOR FY 2007 P.I. John Sibert Project Title: Integrative modeling in support of the Pelagic Fisheries Research Program: spatially disaggregated population dynamics models for pelagic

More information

Four aspects of a sampling strategy necessary to make accurate and precise inferences about populations are:

Four aspects of a sampling strategy necessary to make accurate and precise inferences about populations are: Why Sample? Often researchers are interested in answering questions about a particular population. They might be interested in the density, species richness, or specific life history parameters such as

More information

Oikos. Appendix 1 and 2. o20751

Oikos. Appendix 1 and 2. o20751 Oikos o20751 Rosindell, J. and Cornell, S. J. 2013. Universal scaling of species-abundance distributions across multiple scales. Oikos 122: 1101 1111. Appendix 1 and 2 Universal scaling of species-abundance

More information

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION doi: 10.1038/nature06199 SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION Supplementary Information for Revisiting Lévy flight search patterns of wandering albatrosses, bumblebees and deer by Edwards, A. M., Phillips, R. A.,

More information

Fine-scale Survey of Right and Humpback Whale Prey Abundance and Distribution

Fine-scale Survey of Right and Humpback Whale Prey Abundance and Distribution DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A: Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Fine-scale Survey of Right and Humpback Whale Prey Abundance and Distribution Joseph D. Warren School of Marine and Atmospheric

More information

AUTOCORRELATION OF PELAGIC FISH CATCH RATES. Kristin Kleisner David Die

AUTOCORRELATION OF PELAGIC FISH CATCH RATES. Kristin Kleisner David Die MODELING THE SPATIAL AUTOCORRELATION OF PELAGIC FISH CATCH RATES Kristin Kleisner David Die John F. Walter, III Spatial Geostatistics and Fisheries Typically use geostatistics for sessile species habitat

More information

Analysis of the AIC Statistic for Optimal Detection of Small Changes in Dynamic Systems

Analysis of the AIC Statistic for Optimal Detection of Small Changes in Dynamic Systems Analysis of the AIC Statistic for Optimal Detection of Small Changes in Dynamic Systems Jeremy S. Conner and Dale E. Seborg Department of Chemical Engineering University of California, Santa Barbara, CA

More information

Temporal context calibrates interval timing

Temporal context calibrates interval timing Temporal context calibrates interval timing, Mehrdad Jazayeri & Michael N. Shadlen Helen Hay Whitney Foundation HHMI, NPRC, Department of Physiology and Biophysics, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington

More information

Subject CS1 Actuarial Statistics 1 Core Principles

Subject CS1 Actuarial Statistics 1 Core Principles Institute of Actuaries of India Subject CS1 Actuarial Statistics 1 Core Principles For 2019 Examinations Aim The aim of the Actuarial Statistics 1 subject is to provide a grounding in mathematical and

More information

Progress report on development of a spatially explicit operating model for tropical tuna populations.

Progress report on development of a spatially explicit operating model for tropical tuna populations. IOTC-2018-WPTT20-27 Progress report on development of a spatially explicit operating model for tropical tuna populations. Prepared for Indian Ocean Tuna Commission September 2018 Prepared by: Simon Hoyle

More information

Lecture notes for /12.586, Modeling Environmental Complexity. D. H. Rothman, MIT September 24, Anomalous diffusion

Lecture notes for /12.586, Modeling Environmental Complexity. D. H. Rothman, MIT September 24, Anomalous diffusion Lecture notes for 12.086/12.586, Modeling Environmental Complexity D. H. Rothman, MIT September 24, 2014 Contents 1 Anomalous diffusion 1 1.1 Beyond the central limit theorem................ 2 1.2 Large

More information

Detecting general patterns in fish movement from the analysis of fish tagging data

Detecting general patterns in fish movement from the analysis of fish tagging data 18 th World IMACS / MODSIM Congress, Cairns, Australia 13-17 July 2009 http://mssanz.org.au/modsim09 Detecting general patterns in fish movement from the analysis of fish tagging data Daphney Dagneaux,

More information

Optimal foraging: Lévy pattern or process?

Optimal foraging: Lévy pattern or process? Optimal foraging: Lévy pattern or process? Plank, M. J. and James, A. Department of Mathematics and Statistics University of Canterbury Christchurch, New Zealand Abstract Many different species have been

More information

Finding patterns in nocturnal seabird flight-call behaviour

Finding patterns in nocturnal seabird flight-call behaviour Information Theoretic Approach: AIC!! Finding patterns in nocturnal seabird flight-call behaviour Rachel Buxton Biology 7932 9 November 29 Nocturnality in seabirds Active around colonies only at night

More information

Spatio-temporal dynamics of Marbled Murrelet hotspots during nesting in nearshore waters along the Washington to California coast

Spatio-temporal dynamics of Marbled Murrelet hotspots during nesting in nearshore waters along the Washington to California coast Western Washington University Western CEDAR Salish Sea Ecosystem Conference 2014 Salish Sea Ecosystem Conference (Seattle, Wash.) May 1st, 10:30 AM - 12:00 PM Spatio-temporal dynamics of Marbled Murrelet

More information

Outline. Mixed models in R using the lme4 package Part 3: Longitudinal data. Sleep deprivation data. Simple longitudinal data

Outline. Mixed models in R using the lme4 package Part 3: Longitudinal data. Sleep deprivation data. Simple longitudinal data Outline Mixed models in R using the lme4 package Part 3: Longitudinal data Douglas Bates Longitudinal data: sleepstudy A model with random effects for intercept and slope University of Wisconsin - Madison

More information

Ecological applications of hidden Markov models and related doubly stochastic processes

Ecological applications of hidden Markov models and related doubly stochastic processes . Ecological applications of hidden Markov models and related doubly stochastic processes Roland Langrock School of Mathematics and Statistics & CREEM Motivating example HMM machinery Some ecological applications

More information

Akaike Information Criterion

Akaike Information Criterion Akaike Information Criterion Shuhua Hu Center for Research in Scientific Computation North Carolina State University Raleigh, NC February 7, 2012-1- background Background Model statistical model: Y j =

More information

Chapter 1 Statistical Inference

Chapter 1 Statistical Inference Chapter 1 Statistical Inference causal inference To infer causality, you need a randomized experiment (or a huge observational study and lots of outside information). inference to populations Generalizations

More information

Diversity partitioning without statistical independence of alpha and beta

Diversity partitioning without statistical independence of alpha and beta 1964 Ecology, Vol. 91, No. 7 Ecology, 91(7), 2010, pp. 1964 1969 Ó 2010 by the Ecological Society of America Diversity partitioning without statistical independence of alpha and beta JOSEPH A. VEECH 1,3

More information

Model Selection for Semiparametric Bayesian Models with Application to Overdispersion

Model Selection for Semiparametric Bayesian Models with Application to Overdispersion Proceedings 59th ISI World Statistics Congress, 25-30 August 2013, Hong Kong (Session CPS020) p.3863 Model Selection for Semiparametric Bayesian Models with Application to Overdispersion Jinfang Wang and

More information

Ecological and Evolutionary Recovery of Exploited Fish Stocks

Ecological and Evolutionary Recovery of Exploited Fish Stocks ICES CM 2006/H:18 Ecological and Evolutionary Recovery of Exploited Fish Stocks Katja Enberg 1, Erin S. Dunlop 1, Mikko Heino 1,2,3 and Ulf Dieckmann 1 1 Evolution and Ecology Program, International Institute

More information

Search for Food of Birds, Fish and Insects

Search for Food of Birds, Fish and Insects Search for Food of Birds, Fish and Insects Rainer Klages Max Planck Institute for the Physics of Complex Systems, Dresden Queen Mary University of London, School of Mathematical Sciences Diffusion Fundamentals

More information

Movements of striped bass in response to extreme weather events

Movements of striped bass in response to extreme weather events Movements of striped bass in response to extreme weather events Helen Bailey and David Secor E-mail: hbailey@umces.edu 1 Background 2 Outline What is movement ecology? Methods for analyzing animal tracks

More information

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION doi:10.1038/nature11226 Supplementary Discussion D1 Endemics-area relationship (EAR) and its relation to the SAR The EAR comprises the relationship between study area and the number of species that are

More information

Linear Model Selection and Regularization

Linear Model Selection and Regularization Linear Model Selection and Regularization Recall the linear model Y = β 0 + β 1 X 1 + + β p X p + ɛ. In the lectures that follow, we consider some approaches for extending the linear model framework. In

More information

A top-down approach to modelling marine ecosystems in the context of physical-biological. modelling. Alain F. Vezina,, Charles Hannah and Mike St.

A top-down approach to modelling marine ecosystems in the context of physical-biological. modelling. Alain F. Vezina,, Charles Hannah and Mike St. A top-down approach to modelling marine ecosystems in the context of physical-biological modelling Alain F. Vezina,, Charles Hannah and Mike St.John The Ecosystem Modeller s s Universe Empiricists Data

More information

CS 365 Introduction to Scientific Modeling Fall Semester, 2011 Review

CS 365 Introduction to Scientific Modeling Fall Semester, 2011 Review CS 365 Introduction to Scientific Modeling Fall Semester, 2011 Review Topics" What is a model?" Styles of modeling" How do we evaluate models?" Aggregate models vs. individual models." Cellular automata"

More information

Glossary. The ISI glossary of statistical terms provides definitions in a number of different languages:

Glossary. The ISI glossary of statistical terms provides definitions in a number of different languages: Glossary The ISI glossary of statistical terms provides definitions in a number of different languages: http://isi.cbs.nl/glossary/index.htm Adjusted r 2 Adjusted R squared measures the proportion of the

More information

9. Model Selection. statistical models. overview of model selection. information criteria. goodness-of-fit measures

9. Model Selection. statistical models. overview of model selection. information criteria. goodness-of-fit measures FE661 - Statistical Methods for Financial Engineering 9. Model Selection Jitkomut Songsiri statistical models overview of model selection information criteria goodness-of-fit measures 9-1 Statistical models

More information

Entrance Scholarships

Entrance Scholarships Entrance Scholarships SCIENCE March 2012 Time allowed 2 hours You may try the questions in any order. No calculating aids may be used. Show all working. BIOLOGY [25 marks] Read the following passage: Life

More information

Ø Set of mutually exclusive categories. Ø Classify or categorize subject. Ø No meaningful order to categorization.

Ø Set of mutually exclusive categories. Ø Classify or categorize subject. Ø No meaningful order to categorization. Statistical Tools in Evaluation HPS 41 Fall 213 Dr. Joe G. Schmalfeldt Types of Scores Continuous Scores scores with a potentially infinite number of values. Discrete Scores scores limited to a specific

More information

Scenario-C: The cod predation model.

Scenario-C: The cod predation model. Scenario-C: The cod predation model. SAMBA/09/2004 Mian Zhu Tore Schweder Gro Hagen 1st March 2004 Copyright Nors Regnesentral NR-notat/NR Note Tittel/Title: Scenario-C: The cod predation model. Dato/Date:1

More information

Lecture 4: Types of errors. Bayesian regression models. Logistic regression

Lecture 4: Types of errors. Bayesian regression models. Logistic regression Lecture 4: Types of errors. Bayesian regression models. Logistic regression A Bayesian interpretation of regularization Bayesian vs maximum likelihood fitting more generally COMP-652 and ECSE-68, Lecture

More information

arxiv: v1 [astro-ph.he] 7 Mar 2018

arxiv: v1 [astro-ph.he] 7 Mar 2018 Extracting a less model dependent cosmic ray composition from X max distributions Simon Blaess, Jose A. Bellido, and Bruce R. Dawson Department of Physics, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia arxiv:83.v

More information

ATLANTIC-WIDE RESEARCH PROGRAMME ON BLUEFIN TUNA (ICCAT GBYP PHASE ) ELABORATION OF DATA FROM THE AERIAL SURVEYS ON SPAWNING AGGREGATIONS

ATLANTIC-WIDE RESEARCH PROGRAMME ON BLUEFIN TUNA (ICCAT GBYP PHASE ) ELABORATION OF DATA FROM THE AERIAL SURVEYS ON SPAWNING AGGREGATIONS ATLANTIC-WIDE RESEARCH PROGRAMME ON BLUEFIN TUNA (ICCAT GBYP PHASE 7-2017) ELABORATION OF DATA FROM THE AERIAL SURVEYS ON SPAWNING AGGREGATIONS Report 18 July 2017 Ana Cañadas & José Antonio Vázquez Alnilam

More information

NATCOR. Forecast Evaluation. Forecasting with ARIMA models. Nikolaos Kourentzes

NATCOR. Forecast Evaluation. Forecasting with ARIMA models. Nikolaos Kourentzes NATCOR Forecast Evaluation Forecasting with ARIMA models Nikolaos Kourentzes n.kourentzes@lancaster.ac.uk O u t l i n e 1. Bias measures 2. Accuracy measures 3. Evaluation schemes 4. Prediction intervals

More information

Outline. Building Delphinid Habitat Models with Passive Acoustic Monitoring Data. Study Area. Species. HARP Data Analysis. Instrumentation 10/23/09

Outline. Building Delphinid Habitat Models with Passive Acoustic Monitoring Data. Study Area. Species. HARP Data Analysis. Instrumentation 10/23/09 Outline Building Delphinid Habitat Models with Passive Acoustic Monitoring Data Data Collection Model Challenges True absence vs. false absence Data sampling differences Temporal scale of datasets Case

More information

Learning features by contrasting natural images with noise

Learning features by contrasting natural images with noise Learning features by contrasting natural images with noise Michael Gutmann 1 and Aapo Hyvärinen 12 1 Dept. of Computer Science and HIIT, University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 68, FIN-00014 University of Helsinki,

More information

Penalized Loss functions for Bayesian Model Choice

Penalized Loss functions for Bayesian Model Choice Penalized Loss functions for Bayesian Model Choice Martyn International Agency for Research on Cancer Lyon, France 13 November 2009 The pure approach For a Bayesian purist, all uncertainty is represented

More information

IT S TIME FOR AN UPDATE EXTREME WAVES AND DIRECTIONAL DISTRIBUTIONS ALONG THE NEW SOUTH WALES COASTLINE

IT S TIME FOR AN UPDATE EXTREME WAVES AND DIRECTIONAL DISTRIBUTIONS ALONG THE NEW SOUTH WALES COASTLINE IT S TIME FOR AN UPDATE EXTREME WAVES AND DIRECTIONAL DISTRIBUTIONS ALONG THE NEW SOUTH WALES COASTLINE M Glatz 1, M Fitzhenry 2, M Kulmar 1 1 Manly Hydraulics Laboratory, Department of Finance, Services

More information

Non-uniform coverage estimators for distance sampling

Non-uniform coverage estimators for distance sampling Abstract Non-uniform coverage estimators for distance sampling CREEM Technical report 2007-01 Eric Rexstad Centre for Research into Ecological and Environmental Modelling Research Unit for Wildlife Population

More information

401 Review. 6. Power analysis for one/two-sample hypothesis tests and for correlation analysis.

401 Review. 6. Power analysis for one/two-sample hypothesis tests and for correlation analysis. 401 Review Major topics of the course 1. Univariate analysis 2. Bivariate analysis 3. Simple linear regression 4. Linear algebra 5. Multiple regression analysis Major analysis methods 1. Graphical analysis

More information

Ocean fronts as an indicator of marine animals: expediting site selection and survey for offshore renewables

Ocean fronts as an indicator of marine animals: expediting site selection and survey for offshore renewables Ocean fronts as an indicator of marine animals: expediting site selection and survey for offshore renewables Peter Miller and David Sims 1 1 MBA Oceanic fronts for pelagic diversity Detecting ocean fronts

More information

Testing and Model Selection

Testing and Model Selection Testing and Model Selection This is another digression on general statistics: see PE App C.8.4. The EViews output for least squares, probit and logit includes some statistics relevant to testing hypotheses

More information

Krill population dynamics in the Scotia Sea: variability in growth and mortality within a single population

Krill population dynamics in the Scotia Sea: variability in growth and mortality within a single population ELSEVIER Journal of Marine Systems 36 (2002) 1-10 JOURNAL OF MARINE SYSTEMS www. elsevier. com/locate/j marsy s Krill population dynamics in the Scotia Sea: variability in growth and mortality within a

More information

Introduction to Part III Examining wildlife distributions and abundance using boat surveys

Introduction to Part III Examining wildlife distributions and abundance using boat surveys Baseline Wildlife Studies in Atlantic Waters Offshore of Maryland: Final Report to the Maryland Department of Natural Resources and Maryland Energy Administration, 2015 Introduction to Part III Examining

More information

Tezula funebralis Shell height variance in the Intertidal zones

Tezula funebralis Shell height variance in the Intertidal zones Laci Uyesono Structural Comparison Adaptations of Marine Animals Tezula funebralis Shell height variance in the Intertidal zones Introduction The Pacific Coast of the United States is home to a great diversity

More information

An Introduction to Path Analysis

An Introduction to Path Analysis An Introduction to Path Analysis PRE 905: Multivariate Analysis Lecture 10: April 15, 2014 PRE 905: Lecture 10 Path Analysis Today s Lecture Path analysis starting with multivariate regression then arriving

More information

Introduction to Scientific Modeling CS 365, Fall 2012 Power Laws and Scaling

Introduction to Scientific Modeling CS 365, Fall 2012 Power Laws and Scaling Introduction to Scientific Modeling CS 365, Fall 2012 Power Laws and Scaling Stephanie Forrest Dept. of Computer Science Univ. of New Mexico Albuquerque, NM http://cs.unm.edu/~forrest forrest@cs.unm.edu

More information

What Lives in the Open Ocean and Where Do They Live?

What Lives in the Open Ocean and Where Do They Live? Open Ocean 2 Concepts What are some of the organisms in the ocean? How do the physical (abiotic) properties of the ocean define what organisms live there? Standards Addressed HCPS 5.1, 5.2, & 5.3 Duration

More information

BIAS OF MAXIMUM-LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATES IN LOGISTIC AND COX REGRESSION MODELS: A COMPARATIVE SIMULATION STUDY

BIAS OF MAXIMUM-LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATES IN LOGISTIC AND COX REGRESSION MODELS: A COMPARATIVE SIMULATION STUDY BIAS OF MAXIMUM-LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATES IN LOGISTIC AND COX REGRESSION MODELS: A COMPARATIVE SIMULATION STUDY Ingo Langner 1, Ralf Bender 2, Rebecca Lenz-Tönjes 1, Helmut Küchenhoff 2, Maria Blettner 2 1

More information

The DEPONS project Disturbance Effects on the Harbour Porpoise Population in the North Sea

The DEPONS project Disturbance Effects on the Harbour Porpoise Population in the North Sea The DEPONS project Disturbance Effects on the Harbour Porpoise Population in the North Sea Jacob Nabe-Nielsen, Aarhus University ASCOBANS meeting Wilhelmshaven, 20 June 2017 Modelling cumulative effects

More information

Natal versus breeding dispersal: Evolution in a model system

Natal versus breeding dispersal: Evolution in a model system Evolutionary Ecology Research, 1999, 1: 911 921 Natal versus breeding dispersal: Evolution in a model system Karin Johst 1 * and Roland Brandl 2 1 Centre for Environmental Research Leipzig-Halle Ltd, Department

More information

Simple Linear Regression Using Ordinary Least Squares

Simple Linear Regression Using Ordinary Least Squares Simple Linear Regression Using Ordinary Least Squares Purpose: To approximate a linear relationship with a line. Reason: We want to be able to predict Y using X. Definition: The Least Squares Regression

More information

Business Statistics. Lecture 10: Course Review

Business Statistics. Lecture 10: Course Review Business Statistics Lecture 10: Course Review 1 Descriptive Statistics for Continuous Data Numerical Summaries Location: mean, median Spread or variability: variance, standard deviation, range, percentiles,

More information

9/2/2010. Wildlife Management is a very quantitative field of study. throughout this course and throughout your career.

9/2/2010. Wildlife Management is a very quantitative field of study. throughout this course and throughout your career. Introduction to Data and Analysis Wildlife Management is a very quantitative field of study Results from studies will be used throughout this course and throughout your career. Sampling design influences

More information

An Introduction to Mplus and Path Analysis

An Introduction to Mplus and Path Analysis An Introduction to Mplus and Path Analysis PSYC 943: Fundamentals of Multivariate Modeling Lecture 10: October 30, 2013 PSYC 943: Lecture 10 Today s Lecture Path analysis starting with multivariate regression

More information

8STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF HIGH EXPLOSIVE DETONATION DATA. Beckman, Fernandez, Ramsay, and Wendelberger DRAFT 5/10/98 1.

8STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF HIGH EXPLOSIVE DETONATION DATA. Beckman, Fernandez, Ramsay, and Wendelberger DRAFT 5/10/98 1. 8STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF HIGH EXPLOSIVE DETONATION DATA Beckman, Fernandez, Ramsay, and Wendelberger DRAFT 5/1/98 1. INTRODUCTION Statistical analysis of data for two different high explosives was performed.

More information

Lecture 2: Individual-based Modelling

Lecture 2: Individual-based Modelling Lecture 2: Individual-based Modelling Part I Steve Railsback Humboldt State University Department of Mathematics & Lang, Railsback & Associates Arcata, California USA www.langrailsback.com 1 Outline 1.

More information

Chapter 3: Statistical methods for estimation and testing. Key reference: Statistical methods in bioinformatics by Ewens & Grant (2001).

Chapter 3: Statistical methods for estimation and testing. Key reference: Statistical methods in bioinformatics by Ewens & Grant (2001). Chapter 3: Statistical methods for estimation and testing Key reference: Statistical methods in bioinformatics by Ewens & Grant (2001). Chapter 3: Statistical methods for estimation and testing Key reference:

More information

Simulating Properties of the Likelihood Ratio Test for a Unit Root in an Explosive Second Order Autoregression

Simulating Properties of the Likelihood Ratio Test for a Unit Root in an Explosive Second Order Autoregression Simulating Properties of the Likelihood Ratio est for a Unit Root in an Explosive Second Order Autoregression Bent Nielsen Nuffield College, University of Oxford J James Reade St Cross College, University

More information

Selection Criteria Based on Monte Carlo Simulation and Cross Validation in Mixed Models

Selection Criteria Based on Monte Carlo Simulation and Cross Validation in Mixed Models Selection Criteria Based on Monte Carlo Simulation and Cross Validation in Mixed Models Junfeng Shang Bowling Green State University, USA Abstract In the mixed modeling framework, Monte Carlo simulation

More information

A Monte-Carlo study of asymptotically robust tests for correlation coefficients

A Monte-Carlo study of asymptotically robust tests for correlation coefficients Biometrika (1973), 6, 3, p. 661 551 Printed in Great Britain A Monte-Carlo study of asymptotically robust tests for correlation coefficients BY G. T. DUNCAN AND M. W. J. LAYAKD University of California,

More information

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION In the format provided by the authors and unedited. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION VOLUME: 1 ARTICLE NUMBER: 188 Body size shifts and early warning signals precede the historic collapse of whale stocks Authors:

More information

UNIVERSITY OF TORONTO Faculty of Arts and Science

UNIVERSITY OF TORONTO Faculty of Arts and Science UNIVERSITY OF TORONTO Faculty of Arts and Science December 2013 Final Examination STA442H1F/2101HF Methods of Applied Statistics Jerry Brunner Duration - 3 hours Aids: Calculator Model(s): Any calculator

More information

Figure 12. Modeled pycnocline depth changes for the period relative to the period , based on the depth of the sigma=26.

Figure 12. Modeled pycnocline depth changes for the period relative to the period , based on the depth of the sigma=26. Figure 12. Modeled pycnocline depth changes for the period 1977-97 relative to the period 1964-75, based on the depth of the sigma=26.4 isopycnal of the model hindcast. From Capotondi et al. (2004). Figure

More information

Investigation of Possible Biases in Tau Neutrino Mass Limits

Investigation of Possible Biases in Tau Neutrino Mass Limits Investigation of Possible Biases in Tau Neutrino Mass Limits Kyle Armour Departments of Physics and Mathematics, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093 (Dated: August 8, 2003) We study

More information

Ø Set of mutually exclusive categories. Ø Classify or categorize subject. Ø No meaningful order to categorization.

Ø Set of mutually exclusive categories. Ø Classify or categorize subject. Ø No meaningful order to categorization. Statistical Tools in Evaluation HPS 41 Dr. Joe G. Schmalfeldt Types of Scores Continuous Scores scores with a potentially infinite number of values. Discrete Scores scores limited to a specific number

More information

Chapter 9 Regression. 9.1 Simple linear regression Linear models Least squares Predictions and residuals.

Chapter 9 Regression. 9.1 Simple linear regression Linear models Least squares Predictions and residuals. 9.1 Simple linear regression 9.1.1 Linear models Response and eplanatory variables Chapter 9 Regression With bivariate data, it is often useful to predict the value of one variable (the response variable,

More information

Model Selection. Frank Wood. December 10, 2009

Model Selection. Frank Wood. December 10, 2009 Model Selection Frank Wood December 10, 2009 Standard Linear Regression Recipe Identify the explanatory variables Decide the functional forms in which the explanatory variables can enter the model Decide

More information

The use of GPS and compass loggers to reconstruct high-resolution trajectories in Cory s shearwaters

The use of GPS and compass loggers to reconstruct high-resolution trajectories in Cory s shearwaters The use of GPS and compass loggers to reconstruct high-resolution trajectories in Cory s shearwaters (Calonectris diomedea) to investigate search strategies Stefano Focardi ISPRA - Italy Jacopo G. Cecere

More information

The upper limit for the exponent of Taylor s power law is a consequence of deterministic population growth

The upper limit for the exponent of Taylor s power law is a consequence of deterministic population growth Evolutionary Ecology Research, 2005, 7: 1213 1220 The upper limit for the exponent of Taylor s power law is a consequence of deterministic population growth Ford Ballantyne IV* Department of Biology, University

More information

Occupancy models. Gurutzeta Guillera-Arroita University of Kent, UK National Centre for Statistical Ecology

Occupancy models. Gurutzeta Guillera-Arroita University of Kent, UK National Centre for Statistical Ecology Occupancy models Gurutzeta Guillera-Arroita University of Kent, UK National Centre for Statistical Ecology Advances in Species distribution modelling in ecological studies and conservation Pavia and Gran

More information

Statistical Practice

Statistical Practice Statistical Practice A Note on Bayesian Inference After Multiple Imputation Xiang ZHOU and Jerome P. REITER This article is aimed at practitioners who plan to use Bayesian inference on multiply-imputed

More information

PICES W3 [D-504], Sep 22, 2017, 11:40-12:05

PICES W3 [D-504], Sep 22, 2017, 11:40-12:05 PICES W3 [D-504], Sep 22, 2017, 11:40-12:05 Individual-based model of chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus) covering from larval to adult stages to project climate-driven changes in their spatial distribution

More information

Gradient types. Gradient Analysis. Gradient Gradient. Community Community. Gradients and landscape. Species responses

Gradient types. Gradient Analysis. Gradient Gradient. Community Community. Gradients and landscape. Species responses Vegetation Analysis Gradient Analysis Slide 18 Vegetation Analysis Gradient Analysis Slide 19 Gradient Analysis Relation of species and environmental variables or gradients. Gradient Gradient Individualistic

More information

Ice matters. Arctic and Antarctic under-ice communities linking sea ice with the pelagic food web

Ice matters. Arctic and Antarctic under-ice communities linking sea ice with the pelagic food web Ice matters Arctic and Antarctic under-ice communities linking sea ice with the pelagic food web Hauke Flores, J. A. van Franeker, C. David, B. Lange, V. Siegel, E. A. Pakhomov, U. Bathmann... Hauke.flores@awi.de

More information

Foraging. This week in Animal Behaviour. How do animals choose? Do animals choose their food?

Foraging. This week in Animal Behaviour. How do animals choose? Do animals choose their food? This week in Animal Behaviour Lecture 22: Cooperation Lecture 23: Foraging Lecture 24: TBA Text chapters 10-11 LAB: Project 2 proposal seminars Midterm 2 on Tuesday Nov. 8 Foraging 1. Models of foraging

More information

1 Degree distributions and data

1 Degree distributions and data 1 Degree distributions and data A great deal of effort is often spent trying to identify what functional form best describes the degree distribution of a network, particularly the upper tail of that distribution.

More information

A Note on Bayesian Inference After Multiple Imputation

A Note on Bayesian Inference After Multiple Imputation A Note on Bayesian Inference After Multiple Imputation Xiang Zhou and Jerome P. Reiter Abstract This article is aimed at practitioners who plan to use Bayesian inference on multiplyimputed datasets in

More information

6.207/14.15: Networks Lecture 12: Generalized Random Graphs

6.207/14.15: Networks Lecture 12: Generalized Random Graphs 6.207/14.15: Networks Lecture 12: Generalized Random Graphs 1 Outline Small-world model Growing random networks Power-law degree distributions: Rich-Get-Richer effects Models: Uniform attachment model

More information

Cover times of random searches

Cover times of random searches Cover times of random searches by Chupeau et al. NATURE PHYSICS www.nature.com/naturephysics 1 I. DEFINITIONS AND DERIVATION OF THE COVER TIME DISTRIBUTION We consider a random walker moving on a network

More information

Lecture notes for /12.586, Modeling Environmental Complexity. D. H. Rothman, MIT October 20, 2014

Lecture notes for /12.586, Modeling Environmental Complexity. D. H. Rothman, MIT October 20, 2014 Lecture notes for 12.086/12.586, Modeling Environmental Complexity D. H. Rothman, MIT October 20, 2014 Contents 1 Random and scale-free networks 1 1.1 Food webs............................. 1 1.2 Random

More information

Frequency in % of each F-scale rating in outbreaks

Frequency in % of each F-scale rating in outbreaks Frequency in % of each F-scale rating in outbreaks 2 1 1 1 F/EF1 F/EF2 F/EF3-F/EF5 1954 196 197 198 199 2 21 Supplementary Figure 1 Distribution of outbreak tornadoes by F/EF-scale rating. Frequency (in

More information

Don t be Fancy. Impute Your Dependent Variables!

Don t be Fancy. Impute Your Dependent Variables! Don t be Fancy. Impute Your Dependent Variables! Kyle M. Lang, Todd D. Little Institute for Measurement, Methodology, Analysis & Policy Texas Tech University Lubbock, TX May 24, 2016 Presented at the 6th

More information

Scaling in Movement Trajectory Analysis

Scaling in Movement Trajectory Analysis Scaling in Movement Trajectory Analysis Lévy or not Lévy? Path Characterization Random Walk Models Scaling with Size and Environment Step Identification Area Restricted Search Size-Grain Hypothesis Kaspari

More information

Supplementary materials Quantitative assessment of ribosome drop-off in E. coli

Supplementary materials Quantitative assessment of ribosome drop-off in E. coli Supplementary materials Quantitative assessment of ribosome drop-off in E. coli Celine Sin, Davide Chiarugi, Angelo Valleriani 1 Downstream Analysis Supplementary Figure 1: Illustration of the core steps

More information

LOGISTIC REGRESSION Joseph M. Hilbe

LOGISTIC REGRESSION Joseph M. Hilbe LOGISTIC REGRESSION Joseph M. Hilbe Arizona State University Logistic regression is the most common method used to model binary response data. When the response is binary, it typically takes the form of

More information

ST440/540: Applied Bayesian Statistics. (9) Model selection and goodness-of-fit checks

ST440/540: Applied Bayesian Statistics. (9) Model selection and goodness-of-fit checks (9) Model selection and goodness-of-fit checks Objectives In this module we will study methods for model comparisons and checking for model adequacy For model comparisons there are a finite number of candidate

More information

Bootstrap for model selection: linear approximation of the optimism

Bootstrap for model selection: linear approximation of the optimism Bootstrap for model selection: linear approximation of the optimism G. Simon 1, A. Lendasse 2, M. Verleysen 1, Université catholique de Louvain 1 DICE - Place du Levant 3, B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium,

More information

INFORMATION CRITERIA AND APPROXIMATE BAYESIAN COMPUTING FOR AGENT-BASED MODELLING IN ECOLOGY

INFORMATION CRITERIA AND APPROXIMATE BAYESIAN COMPUTING FOR AGENT-BASED MODELLING IN ECOLOGY INFORMATION CRITERIA AND APPROXIMATE BAYESIAN COMPUTING FOR AGENT-BASED MODELLING IN ECOLOGY New tools to infer on Individual-level processes Cyril Piou Biomath 2015 June 17 Plan Agent Based Modelling

More information

s. Yabushita Statistical tests of a periodicity hypothesis for crater formation rate - II

s. Yabushita Statistical tests of a periodicity hypothesis for crater formation rate - II Mon. Not. R. Astron. Soc. 279, 727-732 (1996) Statistical tests of a periodicity hypothesis for crater formation rate - II s. Yabushita Department of Applied Mathematics and Physics, Kyoto University,

More information

If we want to analyze experimental or simulated data we might encounter the following tasks:

If we want to analyze experimental or simulated data we might encounter the following tasks: Chapter 1 Introduction If we want to analyze experimental or simulated data we might encounter the following tasks: Characterization of the source of the signal and diagnosis Studying dependencies Prediction

More information

BOOTSTRAPPING WITH MODELS FOR COUNT DATA

BOOTSTRAPPING WITH MODELS FOR COUNT DATA Journal of Biopharmaceutical Statistics, 21: 1164 1176, 2011 Copyright Taylor & Francis Group, LLC ISSN: 1054-3406 print/1520-5711 online DOI: 10.1080/10543406.2011.607748 BOOTSTRAPPING WITH MODELS FOR

More information

e 2 e 1 (a) (b) (d) (c)

e 2 e 1 (a) (b) (d) (c) 2.13 Rotated principal component analysis [Book, Sect. 2.2] Fig.: PCA applied to a dataset composed of (a) 1 cluster, (b) 2 clusters, (c) and (d) 4 clusters. In (c), an orthonormal rotation and (d) an

More information

Final Review. Yang Feng. Yang Feng (Columbia University) Final Review 1 / 58

Final Review. Yang Feng.   Yang Feng (Columbia University) Final Review 1 / 58 Final Review Yang Feng http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~yangfeng Yang Feng (Columbia University) Final Review 1 / 58 Outline 1 Multiple Linear Regression (Estimation, Inference) 2 Special Topics for Multiple

More information

Adjoint-based parameter estimation for the spatially explicit model of large pelagics (with application to skipjack tuna).

Adjoint-based parameter estimation for the spatially explicit model of large pelagics (with application to skipjack tuna). Inna Senina 1, John Sibert 1 and Patrick Lehodey 2 Adjoint-based parameter estimation for the spatially explicit model of large pelagics (with application to skipjack tuna). 1 Pelagic Fisheries Research

More information