Improved Liquefaction Hazard Evaluation through PLHA. Steven L. Kramer University of Washington
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1 Improved Liquefaction Hazard Evaluation through PLHA Steven L. Kramer University of Washington
2 il Liquefaction hree primary questions to answer: Is the soil susceptible to liquefaction? If so, is the anticipated loading strong enough to initiate liquefaction? If so, what will be the effects of liquefaction? Yes Yes Susceptibility Initiation Effects No No hazard No No hazard Lateral spreading Flow sliding Settlement
3 il Liquefaction hree primary questions to answer: Is the soil susceptible to liquefaction? If so, is the anticipated loading strong enough to initiate liquefaction? If so, what will be the effects of liquefaction? Yes Yes Susceptibility Initiation Effects No No hazard No No hazard Evaluation of liquefaction potential
4 Using mapped parameters, engineers can obtain benefits of fully probabilistic approach using conventional calculations uefaction Potential urrent procedures produce inconsistent liquefaction potential Inferred damage levels are inconsistent Inferred loss levels are inconsistent Inferred risk is inconsistent robabilistic performance-based approach can solve this problem Full-blown probabilistic analyses (PLHA) are time-consuming Approximate procedures are available
5 aluation of Liquefaction Potential Simplified Method SPT CPT V s FS CRR CSR Resistance Loading Capacity Demand Youd et al. Cetin-Seed
6 aluation of Liquefaction Potential Simplified Method SPT CPT V s FS CRR CSR Resistance Loading Capacity Demand Peak acceleration Magnitude PGA vo 1 = 0.65 r g d MSF vo Intensity Measure (IM): PGA Measure of amplitude of motion M Measure of duration (number of loading cycles)
7 onventional Evaluation of Liquefaction Potential 1. Determine 475-yr (or 2,475-yr) PGA One PGA 2. Determine corresponding M w from deaggregation 3. Compute CSR PGA vo 1 = 0.65 r g d MSF vo One M w One CSR 4. Based on (N 1 ) 60, compute CRR Probabilistic representation of 5. Compute FS L = CRR / CSR ground motion hazard is combined with deterministic representation of liquefaction resistance Conventional criterion: FS min =
8 tball Defense 11 players Different sizes Different speeds Different consequences
9 tball Defense Free safety Small Really fast Makes tackles all over field
10 tball Defense Middle linebacker Big Fast Makes tackles in middle of field
11 tball Defense Defensive tackle Huge Slow Little range, but hits really hard
12 ent Liquefaction Procedures Smaller, more frequent quefaction proach to lay calling Bigger, more rare Only block one player
13 proved Liquefaction Procedure Probabilistic Liquefaction Hazard Analysis (PLHA) Coupled probabilistic liquefaction potential procedure with PSHA
14 proved Liquefaction Procedure Probabilistic Liquefaction Hazard Analysis (PLHA) Coupled probabilistic liquefaction potential procedure with PSHA Application of PEER PBEE framework Mean annual rate of non-exceedance of FS* L Sum over all peak accelerations Sum over all magnitudes
15 proved Liquefaction Procedure Probabilistic Liquefaction Hazard Analysis (PLHA) Coupled probabilistic liquefaction potential procedure with PSHA Application of PEER PBEE framework Short T R Weak motions High FS L log FS Long T R Strong motions Low FS L
16 proved Liquefaction Procedure Probabilistic Liquefaction Hazard Analysis (PLHA) Coupled probabilistic liquefaction potential procedure with PSHA Application of PEER PBEE framework log FS T R,L Return period of liquefaction
17 Illustration of procedure Idealized soil profile Liquefiable in weak motions Liquefiable in strong motions Element at 6 m depth: (N 1 ) 60 = 18
18 Seismic environments Mean annual rate of exceedance, amax (yr -1 ) USGS National Hazard Mapping Program But we also need M w to evaluate liquefaction potential
19 Selection of magnitude Multiple magnitudes contribute to PGA at a given return period
20 Selection of magnitude Multiple magnitudes contribute to PGA at a given return period Contributions are different at different return periods 108 yrs 975 yrs USGS Seattle Deaggregation 224 yrs 2475 yrs 475 yrs 4975 yrs
21 Selection of magnitude Multiple magnitudes contribute to PGA at a given return period Contributions are different at different return periods k down hazard curve into ponents associated with different nitudes sum is equal to Total
22 ssume idealized site is located in 10 different U.S. cities Location Lat. (N) Long. (W) 475-yr a max 2,475-yr a max Butte, MT Charleston, SC Eureka, CA Memphis, TN Portland, OR Salt Lake City, UT Annual rate of exceedance, San Francisco, CA San Jose, CA Santa Monica, CA Seattle, WA Butte Charleston Eureka Memphis Portland Salt Lake City San Francisco San Jose Santa Monica Seattle
23 eterministic analysis using mean magnitudes Higher PGA 475 leads to: Lower FS L Higher N
24 erformance-based analysis Hazard curves for FS L, N req for element at 6 m depth
25 erformance-based analysis Hazard curves for FS L, N req for element at 6 m depth 0021
26 erformance-based analysis Hazard curves for FS L, N req for element at 6 m depth 0021
27 erformance-based analysis Hazard curves for FS L, N req for element at 6 m depth
28 erformance-based analysis Hazard curves for FS L, N req for element at 6 m depth compute deterministic N req es associated with ventional criterion for adequate efaction resistance (FS L > 1.2 g PGA 475 and mean magnitude then use liquefaction hazard ves for N req to compute return iod for liquefaction (N < N req ) el of agreement will provide ght into consistency of efaction hazards as evaluated g conventional approach
29 erformance-based analysis compute deterministic N req es associated with ventional criterion for adequate efaction resistance (FS L > 1.2 g PGA 475 and mean magnitude then use liquefaction hazard ves for N req to compute return iod for liquefaction (N < N req ) el of agreement will provide ght into consistency of efaction hazards as evaluated g conventional approach nsistent application of conventional procedures for evaluation of liquefaction
30 ssume idealized site is located in 10 different U.S. cities Location Lat. (N) Long. (W) 475-yr a max 2,475-yr a max Butte, MT Charleston, SC Eureka, CA Memphis, TN Portland, OR Salt Lake City, UT Annual rate of exceedance, San Francisco, CA San Jose, CA Santa Monica, CA Seattle, WA Butte Charleston Eureka Memphis Portland Salt Lake City San Francisco San Jose Santa Monica Seattle Equal PGA
31 ssume idealized site is located in 10 different U.S. cities Deterministic analysis using mean magnitudes Similar FS L Similar N req
32 compute deterministic N req es associated with ventional criterion for adequate efaction resistance (FS L > 1.2 g PGA 475 and mean magnitude then use liquefaction hazard ves for N req to compute return iod for liquefaction (N < N req ) el of agreement will provide ght into consistency of efaction hazards as evaluated g conventional approach nsistent application of conventional procedures for evaluation of liquefaction
33 Relative factors of safety det N req N PB CRR N Location req CRR N Butte, MT Charleston, SC Eureka, CA Memphis, TN Portland, OR Salt Lk. City, UT San Fran., CA San Jose, CA Santa Mon., CA Seattle, WA det req PB req
34 Relative factors of safety < 1.0 = unconservative > 1.0 = conservative det N req N PB CRR N Location req CRR N Butte, MT Charleston, SC Eureka, CA Memphis, TN Portland, OR Salt Lk. City, UT San Fran., CA San Jose, CA Santa Mon., CA Seattle, WA nsistent application of conventional procedures for evaluation of liquefaction det req PB req Relative FS in Charleston is 45% higher than in San Jose
35 Relative factors of safety These are big differences Geotechs spend a lot of time tweaking various components Magnitude scaling factor, MSF Depth reduction factor, r d Overburden stress factor, K Fines content correction Effects of tweaks have much smaller effect than those shown here
36 So what can we do to improve consistency? Base liquefaction criteria on return period of liquefaction Consistent return period will lead to consistent probability of liquefaction Can handle liquefaction potential in different ways 0.22g M w = g M w = g M w = g M w = g M w = g M w = g M w = g M w = g 0.08g M w =5.9
37 So what can we do to improve consistency? Base liquefaction criteria on return period Consistent return period will lead to consistent probability of liquefaction Can be expressed in terms of N req for a specified return period lations performed on cross state (247 pts) ch point, PB calcs dered 100 PGA levels 0 magnitudes f 247 deterministic 94,000 probabilistic
38 Contours of N req for FS L = 1.2 in 6-m-deep element based on conventional analysis with 475-yr PGA and mean M w N req ~ 22 for Seattle
39 Contours of N req for FS L = 1.2 in 6-m-deep element based on conventional analysis with 475-yr PGA and mean M w N req ~ 22 for Seattle From N req hazard curve, corresponding return period is 400 yrs.
40 Contours of N req for FS L = 1.2 in 6-m-deep element based on conventional analysis with 475-yr PGA and mean M w N req ~ 22 for Seattle From N req hazard curve, corresponding return period is 400 yrs To obtain uniform hazard across state, use hazard curves to determine 400- yr N req values everywhere
41 Contours of N req based on performance-based analysis with 400-yr return period N req ~ 22 for Seattle
42 Contours of N req based on performance-based analysis with 400-yr return period N req ~ 22 for Seattle N req values east of Seattle are very nearly the same as deterministic values
43 Contours of N req based on performance-based analysis with 400-yr return period N req ~ 22 for Seattle N req values east of Seattle are very nearly the same as deterministic values N req values west of Seattle are lower
44 Contours of difference in N req for conventional and performance-based analyses
45 Contours of relative factor of safety inherent in use of conventional analyses Coastal sites are effectively being required to design for 40% - 50% higher FS than required to obtain same hazard as Seattle
46 Contours of relative factor of safety inherent in use of conventional analyses Coastal sites are effectively being required to design for 40% - 50% higher FS than required to obtain same hazard as Seattle Risk-consistent design using
47 Contours of N req based on performance-based analysis with 400-yr return period Results correspond to 6 m deep element in reference profile. How can they be used for different depths in different profiles,
48 The image part with relationship ID rid6 was not found in the file. rformance-based Liquefaction Evaluation ite-specific correction Cetin equation CRR N exp ( FC) 29.53ln M 3.70 ln( ' ) 0.05FC ,60 w vo a L / p ( P ) Letting we can write N 13.32lnCSR 29.53ln M 3.70ln( ' / ) ,60, cs w vo a L Substituting for CSR and using P L = 0.6 (equivalent to standard curve) a max vo N1,60, 13.32ln ln 3.70ln( ' / ) ' cs rd M w vo pa g vo p ( P ) 0.253
49 ite-specific correction Defining these terms for a reference site condition, ln amax vo N1,60,, 0.65 ' cs ref d ref w vo a ref g vo ref r 29.53ln M 3.70 ln( ' / p ) Then the site-specific required penetration resistance can be defined as N 1,60,cs,req = N 1,60,cs,ref + N Site- and profile-specific blowcount adjustment So N = N 1,60,cs,req - N 1,60,cs,ref a max vo 13.32ln 0.65 r 29.53ln 3.70 ln( ' / ) ' d M w vo pa g Initial stress-related terms vo ' ln max 0.65 vo - r Response-related 29.53ln M 3.70 term ln( ' a g vo ref d ref w vo / p a ) ref vo / ' r ' / vo d vo p a
50 Then N vo / ' vo ln ( vo / ' vo ) ref ' vo 3.70 ln ( ' vo ) ref rd ln ( rd ) ref N N r d = N + N rd Function of: density groundwater level depth Function of: depth shear wave velocity peak acceleration earthquake magnitude
51 Then N vo / ' vo ln ( vo / ' vo ) ref ' vo 3.70 ln ( ' vo ) ref rd ln ( rd ) ref N N r d = N + N rd Function of: density groundwater level depth Function of: depth shear wave velocity peak acceleration earthquake magnitude
52 Correction of stress-related terms
53 Correction of r d -related terms
54 parison of N req values chart-based approximate procedure vs. full PB analysis Site-specific FS L
55 parison of N req values chart-based approximate procedure vs. full PB analysis Approximated N req Site-specific FS L Site-specific N req
56 parison of N req values chart-based approximate procedure vs. full PB analysis Approximated N req ple, chart-based adjustment procedure appears to be useful Site-specific FS L Site-specific N req
57 parison of N req values chart-based approximate procedure vs. full PB analysis Approximated N req ple, chart-based adjustment procedure appears to be useful efits of performance-based calculations embodied in mapped N req value for rence element Site-specific in reference FS profile. L Site-specific N req
58 parison of N req values chart-based approximate procedure vs. full PB analysis Approximated N req ple, chart-based adjustment procedure is useful agrees with full PLHA efits of performance-based calculations embodied in mapped N req value for rence element Site-specific in reference FS profile. L Site-specific N req r accounts for site-specific conditions through adjustment procedure.
59 475-yr N req Can map N req values for reference element in reference soil profile 2,475-yr N req
60 rnative approaches Map reference CSR value for given return period Use CSR-based adjustments
61 rnative approaches Map reference CSR value for given return period Use CSR-based adjustments Kevin Franke, BYU Approximated N req
62 rnative approaches Map reference CSR value for given return period Use CSR-based adjustments T R = 475 yrs
63 rnative approaches Map reference CSR value for given return period Use CSR-based adjustments T R = 1,033 yrs
64 rnative approaches Map reference CSR value for given return period Use CSR-based adjustments T R = 2,475 yrs
65 rnative approaches Map magnitude-corrected PGA value CSR 0.65 PGA g ' vo vo rd MSF 0.65 PGA MSF ' vo vo r d 0.65PGA M ' vo vo r d PGA M PGA MSF Could create program to run USGS PSHA analysis, extract hazard curve and deaggregation data, and compute PGA M at different return periods.
66 Result: User goes to map or website, computes PGA M for return period of interest User computes liquefaction potential (FS L ) in same way he/she does now Issues: Requires selection of liquefaction potential model(s) In short term (next 5 yrs), Idriss and Boulanger procedure most common In longer term, NGL relationships will be available Multiple relationships by different modelers Epistemic uncertainty characterized
67 Benefits: More complete evaluation of liquefaction potential Considers all levels of shaking All PGAs All magnitudes Provides consistent actual liquefaction hazards at sites in different seismo-tectonic environments Equal hazards across U.S. Equal retrofit / soil improvement requirements across U.S. Would allow realization of full benefits of NGL models
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