Dynamical versus Statistical Projections of Ocean Wave Heights
|
|
- Gary King
- 6 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Dynamical versus Statistical Projections of Ocean Wave Heights Xiaolan L. Wang and Val R. Swail Climate Research Division, Science and Technology Branch, Environment nment Canada Andrew Cox OceanWeather Inc., USA Datasets and Methodologies Comparison - wave height climate and variability Comparison - the projected possible future changes Summary
2 Datasets and methodologies Our previous studies good relationships between SWH & atmospheric indices: ˆ ( t) = aˆ + bg ˆ + cˆ H avg t P t seasonal mean SWH Hˆ ( t) GEV ( ˆ μ = ˆ μ + ˆ ρ G + ˆ ρ P, ˆ σ, ˆ ξ 20 y t 0 1 t 2 t ) seasonal extreme SWH Predictors P t : Seasonal mean SLP anomalies G t : Seasonal anomalies of squared SLP gradient ERA40 SLP for (96x48 Gaussian grid) Observed predictors ERA40 waves (seasonal mean or max SWH) for (1.5x1.5 lat/long grid) Observed predictands Statistical projections of H avg (t) and H 20y (t) Projected predictors P t and G t Projections of SLP (96x48 Gaussian grid) CGCM2, IS92a scenario, 3 runs: each for 3x20-yr: , , Projections of surface winds ODGP-2G Dynamical projections of H avg (t), H max (t) 6-hourly wave height fields
3 Datasets and methodologies (cont d) not H max (t) Statistical projections of H avg (t) and H 20y (t) Projected P t and G t Projected surface winds ODGP-2G Dynamical projections of H avg (t), H max (t) ERA40 & dynamically projected H max(t) Compare long-term means ( t) GEV ( ˆ μ = ˆ μ + ˆ βt + ˆ λt ˆ ξ ˆ tr 20 2 y ˆ t 0, σ, ) H ˆ H20 tr y ( t) = hˆ + ˆ β t + ˆ λ 0 t 2 statistically projected H 20y (t) Will try this: 12-hly ERA40 SWH and SLP data ˆ ˆ + Statistical projections of 12-hly SWH: Ht = aˆ + bgt cˆ Pt Projected 12-hly P t & G t Statistical projections of H max (t) ~ ERA40 & Dynamical projections of H max (t)
4 Comparison of the wave height climate and variability
5 The climate of seasonal mean SWH (cm) Dyn. - JFM Dyn. - OND Dynamical overestimates better reproduce the location of the center of high waves ERA40 - JFM ERA40 - OND ERA40: Statistical Stat. - JFM Stat. - OND
6 Differences in the climate of seasonal mean SWH (cm) JFM OND Dynamical projections minus ERA40: 1 m JFM OND Statistical projections minus ERA40: 1 m Pattern correlation skill score: Pattern correlation Pattern correlation of JFM seasonal mean SWH Dyn. Stat Pattern correlation Pattern correlation of OND seasonal mean SWH Dyn. Stat Time Time
7 The std of seasonal mean SWH (cm) Dyn. - JFM Dyn. - OND Dynamical overestimates ERA40 - JFM ERA40 - OND ERA40: Statistical Stat. - JFM Stat. - OND
8 Ratios of the variance of seasonal mean SWH (cm) JFM OND Dynamical projections ~ ERA40: 4 times JFM OND Statistical projections ~ ERA40:
9 The climate of seasonal H 20y (cm) Dyn. - JFM Dyn. - OND Dynamical ERA40 - JFM ERA40 - OND ERA40: better reproduce the observed patterns Statistical Stat. - JFM Stat. - OND
10 Differences in the climate of seasonal H 20y (cm) JFM OND Dynamical projections minus ERA40 Smaller differences in the climate of seasonal H max JFM OND Statistical projections minus ERA40
11 The climate of seasonal H max (cm) Dynamical Dyn. - JFM Dyn. - OND Patterns similar to those of the corresponding H 20y little distortion ERA40 - JFM ERA40 - OND ERA40: Dynamical projections minus ERA40: Dyn. ERA40 - JFM Dyn. ERA40 - OND
12 Comparison of the projected possible future changes
13 Projected changes in seasonal H avg (cm) ( s s) Dyn. - JFM Dyn. - OND Dynamical larger larger Patterns share substantial similarity Stat. - JFM Stat. - OND Statistical larger
14 Projected changes in seasonal H 20y (cm) ( s s) Dyn. - JFM Dyn. - OND Dynamical larger Stat. - JFM Stat. - OND Statistical larger larger
15 Summary 1. Projected mean SWH climate ~ ERA40: > Dynamical projections better location of climatological center of high waves > mid-high latitude NA: dynamical ~ overestimate; statistical ~ underestimate > subtropical NA: dynamical ~ underestimate, statistical ~ very good Statistical projections ~ higher pattern correlation skill 2. Projected variability (including trends) ~ ERA40: > Statistical projections ~ underestimate everywhere but central-eastern NA in both seasons > Dynamical projections ~ notably overestimate in central-eastern NA in winter > 60N-70N, North Sea, & Labrador Sea: dynamical ~ overestimate, in both seasons statistical ~ underestimate,
16 3. Projected extreme SWH climate ~ ERA40: Summary (cont d) > dynamical ~ underestimate winter 20-yr return values everywhere ~ overestimate fall 20-yr return values in southwestern NA and underestimate them elsewhere > statistical projections ~ very good in both seasons 4. Projected possible future changes: > dynamical & statistical projections show patterns of change of substantial similarity: in the mid-latitude NA, in the North Sea in JFM & in the area west of Ireland in OND dynamical ~ larger in mid-latitude NA; statistical ~ larger in southwestern NA in JFM > 60N-70N: dynamical & statistical projections show changes of the opposite signs, especially in OND uncertainty due to different downscaling methods or predictors used Dynamical ~ winds less confident Statistical ~ SLP
17 Acknowledgement The authors are thankful to Mr. Yang Feng for his great computing support. - The End - Thank you very much!
Statistical Reconstruction and Projection of Ocean Waves
Statistical Reconstruction and Projection of Ocean Waves Xiaolan L. Wang, Val R. Swail, and Y. Feng Climate Research Division, Science and Technology Branch, Environment Canada 12th Wave Workshop, Hawaii,
More informationDetection of Human Influence on Trends of North Atlantic Ocean Wave Heights and Atmospheric Storminess
Detection of Human Influence on Trends of North Atlantic Ocean Wave Heights and Atmospheric Storminess Xiaolan L. Wang, Val R. Swail, Xuebin Zhang, Francis W. Zwiers Climate Research Division, Environment
More informationImpacts of Climate Change on Autumn North Atlantic Wave Climate
Impacts of Climate Change on Autumn North Atlantic Wave Climate Will Perrie, Lanli Guo, Zhenxia Long, Bash Toulany Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Dartmouth, NS Abstract
More informationNorth Atlantic Ocean Wave Climate Change Scenarios for the Twenty-First Century
2368 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE VOLUME 17 North Atlantic Ocean Wave Climate Change Scenarios for the Twenty-First Century XIAOLAN L. WANG, FRANCIS W. ZWIERS, AND VAL R. SWAIL Climate Research Branch, Meteorological
More informationTHE WAVE CLIMATE OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC - PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE
THE WAVE CLIMATE OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC - PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE Val R. Swail and Xiaolan L. Wang Climate Research Branch, Meteorological Service of Canada, Downsview, Ontario Andrew T. Cox Oceanweather
More informationEarly Period Reanalysis of Ocean Winds and Waves
Early Period Reanalysis of Ocean Winds and Waves Andrew T. Cox and Vincent J. Cardone Oceanweather Inc. Cos Cob, CT Val R. Swail Climate Research Branch, Meteorological Service of Canada Downsview, Ontario,
More informationAssessing the Climate-Scale Variability and Seasonal Predictability of Atmospheric Rivers Affecting the West Coast of North America
Assessing the Climate-Scale Variability and Seasonal Predictability of Atmospheric Rivers Affecting the West Coast of North America Alexander Gershunov, Tamara Shulgina, Marty Ralph, David Lavers CW3E
More informationChallenges for Climate Science in the Arctic. Ralf Döscher Rossby Centre, SMHI, Sweden
Challenges for Climate Science in the Arctic Ralf Döscher Rossby Centre, SMHI, Sweden The Arctic is changing 1) Why is Arctic sea ice disappearing so rapidly? 2) What are the local and remote consequences?
More informationWhat is one-month forecast guidance?
What is one-month forecast guidance? Kohshiro DEHARA (dehara@met.kishou.go.jp) Forecast Unit Climate Prediction Division Japan Meteorological Agency Outline 1. Introduction 2. Purposes of using guidance
More informationThe MSC Beaufort Wind and Wave Reanalysis
The MSC Beaufort Wind and Wave Reanalysis Val Swail Environment Canada Vincent Cardone, Brian Callahan, Mike Ferguson, Dan Gummer and Andrew Cox Oceanweather Inc. Cos Cob, CT, USA Introduction: History
More informationForced and internal variability of tropical cyclone track density in the western North Pacific
Forced and internal variability of tropical cyclone track density in the western North Pacific Wei Mei 1 Shang-Ping Xie 1, Ming Zhao 2 & Yuqing Wang 3 Climate Variability and Change and Paleoclimate Working
More informationCMIP5-based global wave climate projections including the entire Arctic Ocean
CMIP5-based global wave climate projections including the entire Arctic Ocean 1 ST International Workshop ON Waves, storm Surges and Coastal Hazards Liverpool, UK, 10-15 September 2017 Mercè Casas-Prat,
More informationThe MSC50 Wind and Wave Reanalysis
The MSC50 Wind and Wave Reanalysis Val Swail Environment Canada Toronto, Ontario Vince Cardone, Mike Ferguson, Dan Gummer, Erin Harris, Liz Orelup and Andrew Cox Oceanweather Inc. Cos Cob, CT, USA Introduction:
More informationSeasonal Climate Watch April to August 2018
Seasonal Climate Watch April to August 2018 Date issued: Mar 23, 2018 1. Overview The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is expected to weaken from a moderate La Niña phase to a neutral phase through
More informationExploring spectral wave climate variability using a weather type approach
13 TH INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON WAVE HINDCASTING Exploring spectral wave climate variability using a weather type approach Antonio Espejo, Fernando J. Méndez, Iñigo J. Losada, Paula Camus Environmental
More informationS e a s o n a l F o r e c a s t i n g f o r t h e E u r o p e a n e n e r g y s e c t o r
S e a s o n a l F o r e c a s t i n g f o r t h e E u r o p e a n e n e r g y s e c t o r C3S European Climatic Energy Mixes (ECEM) Webinar 18 th Oct 2017 Philip Bett, Met Office Hadley Centre S e a s
More informationAttribution of anthropogenic influence on seasonal sea level pressure
Click Here for Full Article GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 36, L23709, doi:10.1029/2009gl041269, 2009 Attribution of anthropogenic influence on seasonal sea level pressure N. P. Gillett 1 and P. A.
More informationALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING. December 22, 2017 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region
ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING December 22, 2017 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region Today s Outline Feature of the month: Autumn sea ice near Alaska Climate Forecast Basics Climate
More informationE. P. Berek. Metocean, Coastal, and Offshore Technologies, LLC
THE EFFECT OF ARCHIVING INTERVAL OF HINDCAST OR MEASURED WAVE INFORMATION ON THE ESTIMATES OF EXTREME WAVE HEIGHTS 1. Introduction E. P. Berek Metocean, Coastal, and Offshore Technologies, LLC This paper
More informationExtreme rainfall events over southern Africa: influence of Atlantic SST on rainfall variability
Extreme rainfall events over southern Africa: influence of Atlantic SST on rainfall variability Charles Williams 1 Dominic Kniveton 2 Russell Layberry 3 1 The Walker Institute, University of Reading, UK
More informationSeasonal Climate Watch January to May 2016
Seasonal Climate Watch January to May 2016 Date: Dec 17, 2015 1. Advisory Most models are showing the continuation of a strong El-Niño episode towards the latesummer season with the expectation to start
More informationIndices of droughts (SPI & PDSI) over Canada as simulated by a statistical downscaling model: current and future periods
Indices of droughts (SPI & PDSI) over Canada as simulated by a statistical downscaling model: current and future periods Philippe Gachon 1, Rabah Aider 1 & Grace Koshida Adaptation & Impacts Research Division,
More informationGLOBAL WAVE CLIMATE TREND AND VARIABILITY ANALYSIS. Val Swail Meteorological Service of Canada, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
GLOBAL WAVE CLIMATE TREND AND VARIABILITY ANALYSIS Sofia Caires Meteorological Service of Canada and Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute P.O. Box 201, NL-3730 AE De Bilt, Netherlands email: caires@knmi.nl
More informationSUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2336 Stormiest winter on record for Ireland and UK Here we provide further information on the methodological procedures behind our correspondence. First,
More informationDownscaling and Projection of Winter Extreme Daily Precipitation over North America
1 MARCH 2008 W A N G A N D Z H A N G 923 Downscaling and Projection of Winter Extreme Daily Precipitation over North America JIAFENG WANG AND XUEBIN ZHANG Climate Research Division, Environment Canada,
More informationSnapshots of sea-level pressure are dominated in mid-latitude regions by synoptic-scale features known as cyclones (SLP minima) and anticyclones (SLP
1 Snapshots of sea-level pressure are dominated in mid-latitude regions by synoptic-scale features known as cyclones (SLP minima) and anticyclones (SLP maxima). These features have lifetimes on the order
More informationTropical Cyclones in a regional climate change projections with RegCM4 over Central America CORDEX domain
Tropical Cyclones in a regional climate change projections with RegCM4 over Central America CORDEX domain Gulilat Tefera Diro diro@sca.uqam.ca Centre ESCER, University of Quebec at Montreal (UQAM), Montreal,
More informationCHANGES IN EXTRA-TROPICAL STORM TRACKS AND CYCLONE ACTIVITY AS DERIVED FROM TWO GLOBAL REANALYSES AND THE CANADIAN CGCM2 PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE CLIMATE
CHANGES IN EXTRA-TROPICAL STORM TRACKS AND CYCLONE ACTIVITY AS DERIVED FROM TWO GLOBAL REANALYSES AND THE CANADIAN CGCM2 PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE CLIMATE Xiaolan L. Wang, Val R. Swail, and Francis W. Zwiers
More informationHow reliable are selected methods of projections of future thermal conditions? A case from Poland
How reliable are selected methods of projections of future thermal conditions? A case from Poland Joanna Wibig Department of Meteorology and Climatology, University of Łódź, Outline 1. Motivation Requirements
More informationFrancina Dominguez*, Praveen Kumar Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
P1.8 MODES OF INTER-ANNUAL VARIABILITY OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE FLUX TRANSPORT Francina Dominguez*, Praveen Kumar Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
More informationSeasonal Climate Watch June to October 2018
Seasonal Climate Watch June to October 2018 Date issued: May 28, 2018 1. Overview The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has now moved into the neutral phase and is expected to rise towards an El Niño
More informationClimate Change Impacts on the Marine Environment
Climate Change Impacts on the Marine Environment Ken Ridgway CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research Wealth from Oceans National Research Flagship www.csiro.au Acknowledgements Jeff Dunn, John Church, Katy
More informationJuly Forecast Update for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2017
July Forecast Update for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2017 Issued: 4 th July 2017 by Professor Mark Saunders and Dr Adam Lea Dept. of Space and Climate Physics, UCL (University College London), UK Forecast
More informationCLIMATOLOGICAL ASSESSMENT OF REANALYSIS OCEAN DATA. S. Caires, A. Sterl
CLIMATOLOGICAL ASSESSMENT OF REANALYSIS OCEAN DATA S. Caires, A. Sterl Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 201, NL-3730 AE De Bilt, Netherlands. 1 INTRODUCTION email: caires@knmi.nl J.-R.
More informationEffects of the NAO and other atmospheric teleconnection patterns on wind resources in Western Europe
Effects of the NAO and other atmospheric teleconnection patterns on wind resources in Western Europe Laura Zubiate Sologaistoa Frank McDermott, Conor Sweeney, Mark O Malley The North Atlantic Oscillation
More informationJuly Forecast Update for North Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2018
July Forecast Update for North Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2018 Issued: 5 th July 2018 by Professor Mark Saunders and Dr Adam Lea Dept. of Space and Climate Physics, UCL (University College London),
More informationSeasonal Climate Watch July to November 2018
Seasonal Climate Watch July to November 2018 Date issued: Jun 25, 2018 1. Overview The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is now in a neutral phase and is expected to rise towards an El Niño phase through
More informationApril Forecast Update for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2018
April Forecast Update for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2018 Issued: 5 th April 2018 by Professor Mark Saunders and Dr Adam Lea Dept. of Space and Climate Physics, UCL (University College London), UK
More informationHigh-Resolution MPAS Simulations for Analysis of Climate Change Effects on Weather Extremes
High-Resolution MPAS Simulations for Analysis of Climate Change Effects on Weather Extremes ALLISON MICHAELIS, GARY LACKMANN, & WALT ROBINSON Department of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences, North
More informationIncreasing frequency of extremely severe cyclonic storms over the Arabian Sea
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION Letters https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-017-0008-6 In the format provided by the authors and unedited. Increasing frequency of extremely severe cyclonic storms over the Arabian
More informationForecasting. Theory Types Examples
Forecasting Theory Types Examples How Good Are Week Out Weather Forecasts? For forecasts greater than nine days out, weather forecasters do WORSE than the climate average forecast. Why is there predictability
More informationRecent anomalously cold Central Eurasian winters forced by Arctic sea ice retreat in an atmospheric model
Recent anomalously cold Central Eurasian winters forced by Arctic sea ice retreat in an atmospheric model Vladimir A. Semenov A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS, Moscow, Russia and Helmholtz
More informationFewer large waves projected for eastern Australia due to decreasing storminess
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION DOI: 0.08/NCLIMATE Fewer large waves projected for eastern Australia due to decreasing storminess 6 7 8 9 0 6 7 8 9 0 Details of the wave observations The locations of the five
More informationAugust Forecast Update for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2016
August Forecast Update for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2016 Issued: 5 th August 2016 by Professor Mark Saunders and Dr Adam Lea Dept. of Space and Climate Physics, UCL (University College London), UK
More informationAntarctic Sea Ice: Mean state and variability in CCSM control run. Laura Landrum, Marika Holland, Dave Schneider, Elizabeth Hunke
Antarctic Sea Ice: Mean state and variability in CCSM4 1850 control run Laura Landrum, Marika Holland, Dave Schneider, Elizabeth Hunke Overview Model years and variables Mean state and some comparisons
More informationConstraining Model Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice With Observations. Chris Ander 27 April 2010 Atmos 6030
Constraining Model Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice With Observations Chris Ander 27 April 2010 Atmos 6030 Main Sources Boe et al., 2009: September sea-ice cover in the Arctic Ocean projected to vanish by
More informationEffects of Arctic sea ice loss on Northern Hemisphere blocking highs
Effects of Arctic sea ice loss on Northern Hemisphere blocking highs B. Ayarzagüena 1, J. Screen 1, E. Barnes 2 1 University of Exeter, UK 2 Colorado State University, USA Motivation Arctic amplification
More informationApplication and verification of the ECMWF products Report 2007
Application and verification of the ECMWF products Report 2007 National Meteorological Administration Romania 1. Summary of major highlights The medium range forecast activity within the National Meteorological
More informationJulie A. Winkler. Raymond W. Arritt. Sara C. Pryor. Michigan State University. Iowa State University. Indiana University
Julie A. Winkler Michigan State University Raymond W. Arritt Iowa State University Sara C. Pryor Indiana University Summarize by climate variable potential future changes in the Midwest as synthesized
More informationPrecipitation processes in the Middle East
Precipitation processes in the Middle East J. Evans a, R. Smith a and R.Oglesby b a Dept. Geology & Geophysics, Yale University, Connecticut, USA. b Global Hydrology and Climate Center, NASA, Alabama,
More informationGPC Exeter forecast for winter Crown copyright Met Office
GPC Exeter forecast for winter 2015-2016 Global Seasonal Forecast System version 5 (GloSea5) ensemble prediction system the source for Met Office monthly and seasonal forecasts uses a coupled model (atmosphere
More informationThe role of sea-ice in extended range prediction of atmosphere and ocean
The role of sea-ice in extended range prediction of atmosphere and ocean Virginie Guemas with contributions from Matthieu Chevallier, Neven Fučkar, Agathe Germe, Torben Koenigk, Steffen Tietsche Workshop
More informationJuly Forecast Update for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2016
July Forecast Update for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2016 Issued: 5 th July 2016 by Professor Mark Saunders and Dr Adam Lea Dept. of Space and Climate Physics, UCL (University College London), UK Forecast
More informationGlobal Distribution and Associated Synoptic Climatology of Very Extreme Sea States (VESS)
Global Distribution and Associated Synoptic Climatology of Very Extreme Sea States (VESS) Vincent J. Cardone, Andrew T. Cox, Michael A. Morrone Oceanweather, Inc., Cos Cob, Connecticut Val R. Swail Environment
More informationA Concept to Assess the Performance. with a Climate Model
A Concept to Assess the Performance of a Permafrost Model run fully Coupled with a Climate Model Debasish PaiMazumder & Nicole Mölders Acknowledgements My committee members US Bhatt, G Kramm and JE Walsh
More informationSUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION
1 Supplementary Methods Downscaling of global climate model data Global Climate Model data were dynamically downscaled by the Regional Climate Model (RCM) CLM 1 (http://clm.gkss.de/, meanwhile renamed
More informationSeasonal Climate Watch September 2018 to January 2019
Seasonal Climate Watch September 2018 to January 2019 Date issued: Aug 31, 2018 1. Overview The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is still in a neutral phase and is still expected to rise towards an
More informationInterannual Variability of the South Atlantic High and rainfall in Southeastern South America during summer months
Interannual Variability of the South Atlantic High and rainfall in Southeastern South America during summer months Inés Camilloni 1, 2, Moira Doyle 1 and Vicente Barros 1, 3 1 Dto. Ciencias de la Atmósfera
More informationTropical Cyclones - Ocean feedbacks: Effects on the Ocean Heat Transport as simulated by a High Resolution Coupled General Circulation Model
ISTITUTO NAZIONALE di GEOFISICA e VULCANOLOGIA Tropical Cyclones - Ocean feedbacks: Effects on the Ocean Heat Transport as simulated by a High Resolution Coupled General Circulation Model E. Scoccimarro
More informationClimate Change Adaptation for ports and navigation infrastructure
Climate Change Adaptation for ports and navigation infrastructure The application of climate projections and observations to address climate risks in ports Iñigo Losada Research Director IHCantabria Universidad
More informationInterpretation of Outputs from Numerical Prediction System
Interpretation of Outputs from Numerical Prediction System Hiroshi OHNO Tokyo Climate Center (TCC)/ Climate Prediction Division of Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Procedure of Seasonal Forecast (1) 1.
More informationAugust Forecast Update for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2015
August Forecast Update for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2015 Issued: 5 th August 2015 by Professor Mark Saunders and Dr Adam Lea Dept. of Space and Climate Physics, UCL (University College London), UK
More informationRobust Arctic sea-ice influence on the frequent Eurasian cold winters in past decades
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION DOI: 10.1038/NGEO2277 Robust Arctic sea-ice influence on the frequent Eurasian cold winters in past decades Masato Mori 1*, Masahiro Watanabe 1, Hideo Shiogama 2, Jun Inoue 3,
More informationClimate Risk Profile for Samoa
Climate Risk Profile for Samoa Report Prepared by Wairarapa J. Young Samoa Meteorology Division March, 27 Summary The likelihood (i.e. probability) components of climate-related risks in Samoa are evaluated
More informationApril Forecast Update for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2016
April Forecast Update for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2016 Issued: 5 th April 2016 by Professor Mark Saunders and Dr Adam Lea Dept. of Space and Climate Physics, UCL (University College London), UK
More informationClimate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN)
Forecast of 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Activity April 5, 2018 Summary CFAN s inaugural April seasonal forecast for Atlantic tropical cyclone activity is based on systematic interactions among ENSO, stratospheric
More informationWATER VAPOR FLUXES OVER EQUATORIAL CENTRAL AFRICA
WATER VAPOR FLUXES OVER EQUATORIAL CENTRAL AFRICA INTRODUCTION A good understanding of the causes of climate variability depend, to the large extend, on the precise knowledge of the functioning of the
More informationLinkages between Arctic sea ice loss and midlatitude
Linkages between Arctic sea ice loss and midlatitude weather patterns Response of the wintertime atmospheric circulation to current and projected Arctic sea ice decline Gudrun Magnusdottir and Yannick
More informationApril Forecast Update for North Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2019
April Forecast Update for North Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2019 Issued: 5 th April 2019 by Professor Mark Saunders and Dr Adam Lea Dept. of Space and Climate Physics, UCL (University College London),
More informationPre-Season Forecast for North Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2018
Pre-Season Forecast for North Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2018 Issued: 30 th May 2018 by Professor Mark Saunders and Dr Adam Lea Dept. of Space and Climate Physics, UCL (University College London),
More informationClimate Change Scenarios in Southern California. Robert J. Allen University of California, Riverside Department of Earth Sciences
Climate Change Scenarios in Southern California Robert J. Allen University of California, Riverside Department of Earth Sciences Overview Climatology of Southern California Temperature and precipitation
More information2013 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK. June RMS Cat Response
2013 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK June 2013 - RMS Cat Response Season Outlook At the start of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, which officially runs from June 1 to November 30, seasonal forecasts
More informationEnvironment and Climate Change Canada / GPC Montreal
Environment and Climate Change Canada / GPC Montreal Assessment, research and development Bill Merryfield Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) with contributions from colleagues at
More informationA quantile matching adjustment algorithm for Gaussian data series
A quantile matching adjustment algorithm for Gaussian data series Xiaolan L. Wang Climate Research Division, Science and Technology Branch Environment Canada, Toronto, Canada December 3, 2009 The Quantile
More informationNonlinear atmospheric response to Arctic sea-ice loss under different sea ice scenarios
Nonlinear atmospheric response to Arctic sea-ice loss under different sea ice scenarios Hans Chen, Fuqing Zhang and Richard Alley Advanced Data Assimilation and Predictability Techniques The Pennsylvania
More informationTrends in Wave Height and its Relation to Cyclone Activity in the NE Atlantic - Winter season (DJF) of
Trends in Wave Height and its Relation to Cyclone Activity in the NE Atlantic - Winter season (DJF) of 1959-2002 Ole Johan Aarnes Norwegian Meteorological Institute Motivation Investigate trends in winter
More informationA Statistical-Dynamical Seasonal Forecast of US Landfalling TC Activity
A Statistical-Dynamical Seasonal Forecast of US Landfalling TC Activity Johnny Chan and Samson K S Chiu Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre City University of Hong Kong Research sponsored
More informationStatistical Forecast of the 2001 Western Wildfire Season Using Principal Components Regression. Experimental Long-Lead Forecast Bulletin
Statistical Forecast of the 2001 Western Wildfire Season Using Principal Components Regression contributed by Anthony L. Westerling 1, Daniel R. Cayan 1,2, Alexander Gershunov 1, Michael D. Dettinger 2
More informationCOMPARISON OF HINDCAST RESULTS AND EXTREME VALUE ESTIMATES FOR WAVE CONDITIONS IN THE HIBERNIA AREA GRAND BANKS OF NEWFOUNDLAND
COMPARISON OF HINDCAST RESULTS AND EXTREME VALUE ESTIMATES FOR WAVE CONDITIONS IN THE HIBERNIA AREA GRAND BANKS OF NEWFOUNDLAND E. P. Berek 1, V. J. Cardone 2, and V. R. Swail 3 1 Metocean, Coastal, and
More informationRegional Climate Simulations with WRF Model
WDS'3 Proceedings of Contributed Papers, Part III, 8 84, 23. ISBN 978-8-737852-8 MATFYZPRESS Regional Climate Simulations with WRF Model J. Karlický Charles University in Prague, Faculty of Mathematics
More informationClimate Change Modelling: BASICS AND CASE STUDIES
Climate Change Modelling: BASICS AND CASE STUDIES TERI-APN s Training program on Urban Climate Change Resilience 22 nd 23 rd January, 2014 Goa Saurabh Bhardwaj Associate Fellow Earth Science & Climate
More informationMPACT OF EL-NINO ON SUMMER MONSOON RAINFALL OF PAKISTAN
MPACT OF EL-NINO ON SUMMER MONSOON RAINFALL OF PAKISTAN Abdul Rashid 1 Abstract: El-Nino is the dominant mod of inter- annual climate variability on a planetary scale. Its impact is associated worldwide
More informationForecasting. Theory Types Examples
Forecasting Theory Types Examples How Good Are Week Out Weather Forecasts? For forecasts greater than nine days out, weather forecasters do WORSE than the climate average forecast. Why is there predictability
More informationStatistical Downscaling of Pattern Projection Using Multi-Model Output Variables as Predictors
NO.3 KANG Hongwen, ZHU Congwen, ZUO Zhiyan, et al. 293 Statistical Downscaling of Pattern Projection Using Multi-Model Output Variables as Predictors KANG Hongwen 1 (xù ), ZHU Congwen 2 (6l ), ZUO Zhiyan
More informationUncertainties in multi-model climate projections
*** EMS Annual Meeting *** 28.9. 2.10.2009 *** Toulouse *** Uncertainties in multi-model climate projections Martin Dubrovský Institute of Atmospheric Physics ASCR, Prague, Czech Rep. The study is supported
More informationStatistical Downscaling of Precipitation in Korea Using Multimodel Output Variables as Predictors
1928 M O N T H L Y W E A T H E R R E V I E W VOLUME 137 Statistical Downscaling of Precipitation in Korea Using Multimodel Output Variables as Predictors HONGWEN KANG APEC Climate Center, Busan, South
More informationCanadian Climate Data and Scenarios (CCDS) ccds-dscc.ec.gc.ca
Canadian Climate Data and Scenarios (CCDS) ccds-dscc.ec.gc.ca Benita Tam Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) Climate Research Division (CRD), Science and Technology Branch Environment
More informationIntroduction of Seasonal Forecast Guidance. TCC Training Seminar on Seasonal Prediction Products November 2013
Introduction of Seasonal Forecast Guidance TCC Training Seminar on Seasonal Prediction Products 11-15 November 2013 1 Outline 1. Introduction 2. Regression method Single/Multi regression model Selection
More informationTheoretical and Modeling Issues Related to ISO/MJO
Theoretical and Modeling Issues Related to ISO/MJO Tim Li Department of Meteorology and IPRC University of Hawaii DYNAMO workshop, April 13-14, Boulder, Colorado 1. MJO Initiation issue: Role of air- sea
More informationHuman influence on terrestrial precipitation trends revealed by dynamical
1 2 3 Supplemental Information for Human influence on terrestrial precipitation trends revealed by dynamical adjustment 4 Ruixia Guo 1,2, Clara Deser 1,*, Laurent Terray 3 and Flavio Lehner 1 5 6 7 1 Climate
More informationProjection of Extreme Wave Climate and Modeling
Projection of Extreme Wave Climate and Modeling Nobuhito Mori and Tomoya Shimura Kyoto University www.oceanwave.jp H.Mase, T. Yasuda, S. Nakajo (Kyoto U) A. Kitoh (MRI) H. Murakami (JAMSTEC) and others
More informationApplication and verification of ECMWF products 2014
Application and verification of ECMWF products 2014 Israel Meteorological Service (IMS), 1. Summary of major highlights ECMWF deterministic runs are used to issue most of the operational forecasts at IMS.
More informationBaseline Climatology. Dave Parker ADD PRESENTATION TITLE HERE (GO TO: VIEW / MASTER / SLIDE MASTER TO AMEND) ADD PRESENTER S NAME HERE / ADD DATE HERE
Baseline Climatology Dave Parker ADD PRESENTATION TITLE HERE (GO TO: VIEW / MASTER / SLIDE MASTER TO AMEND) ADD PRESENTER S NAME HERE / ADD DATE HERE Copyright EDF Energy. All rights reserved. Introduction
More informationSEASONAL VARIABILITY AND PERSISTENCE IN TEMPERATURE SCENARIOS FOR ICELAND
SEASONAL VARIABILITY AND PERSISTENCE IN TEMPERATURE SCENARIOS FOR ICELAND Haraldur Ólafsson 1,2 and Ólafur Rögnvaldsson 2,3 1 University of Iceland, Reykjavík, Iceland 2 Bergen School of Meteorology, Geophysical
More informationModel Based Climate Predictions for Utah. Thomas Reichler Department of Atmospheric Sciences, U. of Utah
Model Based Climate Predictions for Utah Thomas Reichler Department of Atmospheric Sciences, U. of Utah thomas.reichler@utah.edu Climate Model Prediction Results Northern Utah: Precipitation will increase
More informationSUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION
doi:10.1038/nature12310 We present here two additional Tables (Table SI-1, 2) and eight further Figures (Figures SI-1 to SI-8) to provide extra background information to the main figures of the paper.
More information2011 Atlantic Hurricane Activity and Outlooks A Climate/ Historical Perspective
2011 Atlantic Hurricane Activity and Outlooks A Climate/ Historical Perspective Gerry Bell NOAA Lead Seasonal Hurricane Forecaster Climate Prediction Center/ NWS Related Publications: Bell and Chelliah
More informationClimate Downscaling 201
Climate Downscaling 201 (with applications to Florida Precipitation) Michael E. Mann Departments of Meteorology & Geosciences; Earth & Environmental Systems Institute Penn State University USGS-FAU Precipitation
More informationClimate Variability. Andy Hoell - Earth and Environmental Systems II 13 April 2011
Climate Variability Andy Hoell - andrew_hoell@uml.edu Earth and Environmental Systems II 13 April 2011 The Earth System Earth is made of several components that individually change throughout time, interact
More informationInterdecadal and Interannnual Variabilities of the Antarctic Oscillation Simulated by CAM3
ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC SCIENCE LETTERS, 2014, VOL. 7, NO. 6, 515 520 Interdecadal and Interannnual Variabilities of the Antarctic Oscillation Simulated by CAM3 XUE Feng 1, SUN Dan 2,3, and ZHOU Tian-Jun
More information