Agenda. Complex Systems Architecting

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Complex Systems Architecting ~ Erik Philippus "Chaos often breeds life, when order breeds habit." IMPROVEMENT BV 1 erik.philippus@improvement-services.nl Agenda Introduction Complicated or Complex?

Ralph Stacey's Agreement & Uncertainty Matrix.

1 Complex Systems Architecting ~ Erik Philippus "Chaos often breeds life, when order breeds habit." IMPROVEMENT BV 1 erik.philippus@improvement-services.nl Agenda Introduction Complicated or Complex?, Definitions of Complexity, Mechanistic World View & Reductionism, Complex Dynamic Behavior, Stochastic & Deterministic Processes, Fuzzy Logic, Linearity, Non-linear behaviour. Ralph Stacey's Agreement & Uncertainty Matrix. Complex Systems Theory Unpredictability, (Strange) Atttactors, Lorentzian Waterwheel, Butterfly Effect, Self Similarity, Multi-stability, Logistic Map, Bifurcation Diagram, On the Edge of Chaos, Description of a Complex System. Complex Systems Architecting The Curse of High Dimensionality, the Holy Grail, Lifecycle of Complex Systems, Inherent Complexity, Limits of Model-Based Architecting, Paradigm Shift, The Map of Reality of System Architects. 2 1

2 Agenda Introduction Complicated or Complex?, Definitions of Complexity, Mechanistic World View & Reductionism, Complex Dynamic Behavior, Stochastic & Deterministic Processes, Fuzzy Logic, Linearity, Non-linear behaviour. Ralph Stacey's Agreement & Uncertainty Matrix. Complex Systems Theory Unpredictability, (Strange) Atttactors, Lorentzian Waterwheel, Butterfly Effect, Self Similarity, Multi-stability, Logistic Map, Bifurcation Diagram, On the Edge of Chaos, Description of a Complex System. Complex Systems Architecting The Curse of High Dimensionality, the Holy Grail, Lifecycle of Complex Systems, Inherent Complexity, Limits of Model-Based Architecting, Paradigm Shift, The Map of Reality of System Architects. 3 Complex Dynamic Systems Telecommunication Infrastructure Ant Colony Nervous System Economy Waferstepper Climate Internet Living Organisms 4 2

3 What is Complexity? Complexity is the line of balance, or transition point, between order and chaos, partaking of both. Langton Complexity is the ability of a system to switch between different modes of behavior as the environmental conditions are varied. Prigogine Complexity is a chaos of behaviors in which the components of the system never quite lock into place, yet never quite dissolve into turbulence either. Waldrop 5 Complicated or Complex? complicated: 1 composed of elaborately interconnected parts: complicated apparatus for measuring brain functions. 2 difficult to analyze, understand, explain, etc.: complicated Middle East problem. complex: 1 a whole composed of interconnected or interwoven parts: an appartment complex; the military-industrial complex. 2 a chemical association of two or more species: the vitamin B complex. complicated: wide and shallow complex: deep and narrow 6 3

? 7 A Mechanistic World View The material universe is a complex machine that in principle can be understood completely by

4 Food for Thought Given sufficient data, perfect understanding of the laws of nature and enough processing power, everything in the universe could eventually be calculated and predicted.? 7 A Mechanistic World View The material universe is a complex machine that in principle can be understood completely by analyzing it in terms of its smallest parts. Newton by William Blake (1795) Descartes held that non-human animals could be reductively explained as automata. ("De Homines", 1662) 8 4

behavior of a complex system cannot feasibly be predicted from understanding

5 Complexity A Non-Reductionistic View A complex system cannot be described by a single rule, nor is reducible to only one level of explanation Ensamble behavior of a complex system cannot feasibly be predicted from understanding the constituent parts 9 Complex Behaviour (simple) Rules + (intricate) Relationships 10 5

6 Complex Behaviour example 11 Complex Behaviour example 12 6

7 Dynamic System Behavior Dynamic Behavior Stochastic Deterministic More than one consequent chosen from some probability distribution The system's next state is determined both by predictable actions and by a random element. Unique consequent to every dynamical state at any instant The system's next state is causally determined by an unbroken chain of prior occurences. 13 Deterministic Systems Everything that occurs in a deterministic system, is based on the physical outcomes of causality no random, spontaneous, mysterious, or miraculous events If all inputs are specified, the system will always produce a particular output A deterministic dynamical system is perfectly predictable given perfect knowledge of the initial conditions, and is in practice always predictable in the short term. 14 7

8 Stochastic Systems Example: Pressure in a gas The motion of a collection of molecules is computationally and practically unpredictable. A large enough set of molecules will exhibit stochastic characteristics, such as: filling the container, exerting equal pressure, diffusing along concentration gradients, etc. These are emergent properties of the system. 15 What is Fuzzy Logic? dealing with imprecise or vague data Classical logic holds that everything can be expressed in binary terms: 0 yes white 1 no black Fuzzy logic allows for partial membership in a set, with values between 0 and 1; it may introduce the concept of the fuzzy set multivalue Approximate reasoning (Fuzzy IF-THEN rules) 16 8

Fuzzy Logic applications washing machine Tokyo

home appliances elevators automatic transmission

animation ABS automobile subsystems pattern

fuzzy logic processor I can track thousands of

if I had to Whadya say, we make some RICE tonight?

9 Fuzzy Logic applications washing machine Tokyo monorail cruise control rice cooker dish washer home appliances elevators automatic transmission MASSIVE machine for Lord of the Rings computer animation ABS automobile subsystems pattern recognition 17 The Angry Ricecooker I have a fuzzy logic processor I can track thousands of variables I could plan the invastion of Normandy if I had to Whadya say, we make some RICE tonight? And what do they have me doing? Just knock me of the counter 18 9

Linearity A system is said to be linear if it meets the following criteria: Proportionality The magnitude of the system output is proportional to the magnitude of the system input If input x to the

10 Linearity A system is said to be linear if it meets the following criteria: Proportionality The magnitude of the system output is proportional to the magnitude of the system input If input x to the system results in output X, then an input of 2x will produce output of 2X Additivity The system handles simultaneous inputs independently If input x produces output X, and input y produces output Y, then an input of x + y will produce an output of X + Y. Composability The aggregate behavior of the system is derivable from the summation of the activities of individual components 19 Nonlinearity: a fact of life Nonlinear systems are systems whose behavior is not expressible as a linear function of its descriptors? Output Size of development team Brook's Law: Adding manpower to a late project makes it later 20 10

11 Nonlinear behaviour Types of nonlinear behaviour: indeterminism the behavior of a system cannot be predicted multistability alternating between two or more exclusive states aperiodic oscillations functions that do not repeat values after some period The nonlinear terms tend to be the features that people want to leave out when they are confronted with complex systems 21 Ralph Stacey's Agreement & Certainty Matrix disagreement 4 Chaos 5 2 Selling Selling Co-creating close to agreement 1 Telling close to certainty 3 Consulting high uncertainty 22 11

12 Ralph Stacey's Agreement & Certainty Matrix disagreement close to agreement Political decision making Chaos buy-in strategies, Avoidance, persuation & negotiation Anarchy, Desintegration 5 rational decision Shared making, goal 2 classical Co-creating Learning project management Organization, Selling Systems Thinking Selling Maximum utilization of knowledge en resources, creativity, intuition, passion, appreciative inquiry 1 3 Telling close to certainty Consulting 4 high uncertainty 23 Prototyping & Production far from agreement Requirements close to agreement Complex Complicated production Simple close to certainty pre-production Technology Anarchy high uncertainty 24 12

CHAOS THEORY AND EXCHANGE RATE PROBLEM

CHAOS THEORY AND EXCHANGE RATE PROBLEM Yrd. Doç. Dr TURHAN KARAGULER Beykent Universitesi, Yönetim Bilişim Sistemleri Bölümü 34900 Büyükçekmece- Istanbul Tel.: (212) 872 6437 Fax: (212)8722489 e-mail: