An Analysis of Industrial Structure in Shandong Province under Gray Correlative Degree

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1 An Analyss of Industral Structure n Shandong Provnce under Gray Correlatve Degree Yun L a, Ynghong Ma School of Management Scence & Engneerng, Shandong Normal Unversty, Jnan 54, Chna Abstract a @63.com In ths paper, the gray relatonal analyss method s used to analyze and excavate the output value of Shandong Provnce. Frstly, we qualtatvely analyzed the output value of Shandong Provnce, and then the gray correlaton analyss result s compared wth the qualtatve result. Fnally show that the quanttatve results are consstent wth the qualtatve results. In the end,we put forward some suggestons and strateges on the future economc development of Shandong Provnce by analyzng the results. Keywords Gray correlaton degree; Industral structure; Grade-level cty output value.. Introducton Nature has a varety of thngs that are complex and vared, and the rapd development of socety makes these thngs more closely lnked. We call these mutual restrants, nterrelated thngs the system []. How to analyze the nternal structure, regularty and characterstcs of the actual system has become an mportant part of people's research. The system s dvded nto whte system, black system and gray system accordng to the completeness of the nformaton and the constructon of the model []. Whte system has suffcent nformaton, the model structure and clearly parameters; black system s wthout any knowledge, no amount of nformaton about the system []. Gray system s understuded the external characterstcs of the part of system, but the nternal factors are dffcult to dentfy. People cannot buld an objectve physcal model, so the quanttatve descrpton of the system s more dffcult. In the real world, whte and black systems are few; we can get some nformaton from the most of the system. So, the gray system n the world s a large number of exstences and the study of gray systems s mportant. There are a lot of system research methods to solve a system that do not have complete nformaton. For example: regresson analyss, varance analyss, prncpal component analyss and so on. However, these methods have shortcomngs: these methods are based on mathematcal statstcs, so they need for a lot of data, whle the amount of calculaton wll ncrease a lot. Secondly, the sample s requred to obey a typcal probablty dstrbuton, requrng the factor data and the system characterstc data meet a lnear relatonshp and the factors are not related to each other, and ths requrement s often dffcult to meet. In addton, t quanttatve phenomena and qualtatve analyss of the results wll not match the phenomenon, resultng n the relatonshp between the system and the law has been dstorted and reversed. Therefore, ths paper uses a gray relatonal analyss. Accordng to the development trend of factors smlarty or degree of dssmlarty to measure the degree of correlaton between factors, revealng the characterstcs of the dynamc assocaton and degree [3]. Because the gray correlaton analyss method has no excessve requrement on the sample sze, t does not need the typcal dstrbuton rule, and does not cause the quantfcaton result of the correlaton degree to be nconsstent wth the qualtatve analyss. Therefore, the applcaton of gray correlaton s very extensve. Zhu fuln apples gray correlaton degree to analyze the nfluence factors of Inda's servce outsourcng compettveness; Han Yngchun [5] analyses of grd faults usng gray relatonal grade; Dng Pn [6] selects of sweet sorghum materals by gray correlaton and many more. Ths shows that the gray correlaton has been wdely used n the economc, technologcal, agrcultural 8

2 and other felds [7]. Based on the gray grayness of the gray system, ths paper uses the gray relatonal degree method to excavate the varous nternal relatons of the total output value of Shandong Provnce from to 3.. Gray correlaton analyss. Basc prncples of the gray relatonal degree Gray system theory puts forward the correlaton degree analyss method [3], whch s based on the smlarty or dssmlarty of the development trend between factors to measure the degree of correlaton; t reveals the characterstcs and degree of dynamc assocaton. For factors between the two systems, the measure of the sze of the assocaton that changes wth tme or dfferent objects s called the degree of relevance [8]. In the process of system development, f the trend of the two factors change s consstent, that s, the degree of change s hgh, that can be descrbed as a hgh degree of correlaton; the contrary, the lower. Therefore, the gray relatonal analyss method s based on the smlarty or dssmlarty of the development trend between factors, that s, "gray relatonal degree" s a measure of the degree of correlaton between methods [3]. The gray system theory puts forward the concept of gray relatonal analyss of each subsystem, and tres to fnd out the relatonshp between the subsystems (or factors) through certan methods. Thus, the gray relatonal analyss provdes a quanttatve measure of the evoluton of a system, makng t deal for dynamc hstory analyss.. Gray correlaton degree As a developng and changng system, the relevance analyss s actually a quanttatve analyss of the dynamc process development trend. The so-called developng trend comparson, that s geometrc relatonshp comparson about the relevant statstcal data n the system. There are many types of gray relatonal degrees. The followng artcle wll focus on several types of relevance of the soluton. () Gray absolute correlaton Set the system behavor sequence X x x x n X ( x (), x (),, x ( n)) ( (), (),, ( )) X ( x (), x (),, x ( n)) X ( x (), x (),, x ( n)) X m m m m (x (),x (),,x (n))and pont of the mage respectvely. X (x (),x (),,x (n)), s x (k)=x (k)-x (), x (k)=x (k)-x (),,,, m; k,,, n. And then, s x (k)+ x (n), s x (k)+ x (n) and s s s s (x (k)-x (k))+ (x (n)-x (n)). s s s s X and X of the startng s the gray absolute correlaton between X and X, referred to as the absolute correlaton[9]. (3) Gray relatve correlaton degree Let sequence X and respectvely for the ntal values of X and X s the same length and the ntal values are not equal to zero, X and X X 9

3 k n k x k x k x k, x k,,,, m; k,,, n. n n x k x k n, s x (k)+ x (n), s x,, (k)+ x (n),,, s (x (k)-x (k))+ (x (n)-x (n)),,,,,,, s R R 3 s s,, o,,,, so s s so recorded as relatve degree of correlaton. The relatve correlaton degree characterzes the relatonshp of the sequences about the relatve rate of change between the startng ponts. That s mean, the closer the rate of change between the sequences, the larger the value, the smaller the dfference. (4) Gray comprehensve correlaton degree X X [,] Let sequence and s the same length and the ntal values are not equal to zero.. ( ) R. We called gray comprehensve correlaton degree. The comprehensve relevance degree not only reflects the degree of smlarty between sequences, but also reflects the degree of smlarty of the sequence relatve to the startng pont. It s a comprehensve ndcator of reflectng whether the relatonshp between the sequences s closely related. 3. Analyss of output value of Shandong Provnce n -3 Qualtatve analyss s not accurate when analyzng a system factor, and some regresson analyss and varance analyss n mathematcal statstcs can cause the quantfcaton result to be nconsstent wth the analyss result. But the gray correlaton analyss can be a good way to avod ths phenomenon. Ths artcle frst uses a qualtatve approach that s, drawng the chart through the observaton, a general understandng of the output value of the cty's producton structure. Then we use the gray correlaton analyss method. Gray correlaton degree for the sample sze and the number of samples wth no obvous laws are equally applcable, and the amount of calculaton s small and very convenent. To analyze an abstract system or phenomenon, frst select the data sequence that reflects the behavoral characterstcs of the system. We call t fndng the amount of mappng n the system behavor, wth the amount of mappng to ndrectly represent the system behavor []. In ths ssue, we use the annual output value of Shandong Provnce as a mappng of the amount of mappng, the cty-level ctes wth the correlaton between the correlaton, the greater the relevance of cty, the greater the contrbuton rate. Implementaton steps: () Collect of evaluaton data and accordng to the purpose of evaluaton to determne the evaluaton ndex system () Determne the reference number (3) Gray absolute correlaton degree (4) Fnd the relatve degree of gray correlaton R (5) Gray comprehensve correlaton degree, In ths paper, consder the actual stuaton An Analyss of the Output Value of prefecture-level cty n Shandong Accurate dentfcaton whch prefecture-level cty has largest contrbuton Shandong Provnce has an mportant role for the future economc development. So, we wll qualtatve analyss 7 prefecturelevel cty's producton value.

4 Fgure Producton value of each cty Through Fgure, we can see that the output value of Qngdao s the closest to the total output value of Shandong Provnce, but ths s only qualtatve analyss, wth a subjectve effect, we need a detaled calculaton of quanttatve analyss. Through the above we have learned that gray correlaton method can be a good analyss of the problem, especally for some of the larger gray-scale problem. When choosng the knd of gray relatonal degree, ths paper chooses the gray comprehensve correlaton degree. Frst, the length of the data between the same sequence and the ntal value s not zero. Secondly, t can reflect the smlarty of the polylne, but also reflects the two factors relatve to the startng pont of the rate of change. It can be more comprehensve representaton of the lnk between the sequence s close. By calculatng the gray correlaton degree of the 7 ctes wth the gross output value, we can get the table. Table Gray comprehensve correlaton degree of output value of varous ctes n Shandong Provnce ρ=.7463 ρ=.784 ρ3=.76 ρ4=.694 ρ5=.779 ρ6=.7634 ρ7=.78 ρ8=.739 ρ9= ρ =.75 ρ =.6958 ρ =.6888 ρ3=.787 ρ 4 =.6978 ρ 5 =.6956 ρ 6 =.695 ρ7=.694 Jnan Qngdao Zbo Zaozhuang Dongyng Yanta Wefang Jjng Taan Weha Rzhao Lawu Lny Dezhou Laocheng Bnzhou Heze Total Sort results are: ρ > ρ6 > ρ > ρ7 > ρ3 > ρ8 > ρ3 > ρ5 > ρ > ρ9 >ρ4 >ρ5 > ρ6 > ρ4 > ρ7 > ρ > ρ Sortng results can be analyzed: In the provnce's output value, the output value of Qngdao, Yan ta and Jnan s the hghest, whch s the maxmum contrbuton to the total output value of Shandong Provnce. He Ze, R Zhao, La Wu s smlarty s low, the lowest contrbuton to the total output value. And ths result s consstent wth the qualtatve analyss n the above fgure. 3. An Analyss of Industral Structure n Shandong Provnce 3.. An Analyss of the Industral Structure of the Output Value of Shandong Provnce We frst qualtatve analyss, get Fgure. 3

5 prmary ndustry Secondary ndustry.. Tertary Industry. Fgure the provnce's ndustral structure From Fgure, we can guess the secondary ndustry n the total output value of Shandong Provnce has a pvotal role. Then the gray correlaton analyss method was used for quanttatve analyss. The total output value of Shandong Provnce s selected as the reference seres. And compare the smlarty between the output value of the three ndustres and the total output value.through the gray relatonal analyss, the ndustral center of Shandong Provnce s obtaned. The results obtaned are Table. Table Gray Correlaton of Industral Structure n Shandong Provnce ρ =.6486 ρ =.888 ρ 3 =.7743 Sort results are: ρ > ρ3 > ρ Ths result s consstent wth the qualtatve analyss of Fgure. 3.. Analyss on the Industral Structure of Local Ctes n Shandong Provnce Dfferent prefecture-level ctes have dfferent ndustral structure; ths paper use the gray relatonal analyss to analyss dfferent prefecture-level cty s emphass on the frst, second and thrd ndustry. Methods and mplementaton of the code and the same secton, here s not one by one repeat Jnan Qngdao Zbo Zaozhuang Dongyng Yanta Wefang Jjng Taan Weha Fgure 3 Dstrbuton of prmary ndustral structure n varous ctes 3

6 Table 3 Gray comprehensve correlaton degree of the prmary ndustral structure n Shandong Provnce ρ =.8347 ρ =.875 ρ 3 =.7457 ρ 4 =.9788 ρ 5 =.7389 ρ 6 =.9497 ρ 7 = ρ 8 =.836 ρ 9 =.995 ρ =.9535 ρ =.8553 ρ =.878 ρ 3 =.859 ρ 4 = ρ 5 = ρ 6 =.8545 ρ 7 =.5969 Sort results are: ρ4 >ρ > ρ6 > ρ 9 >ρ > ρ 7> ρ6 > ρ3 > ρ8 >ρ > ρ > ρ > ρ4 > ρ 3 > ρ5 >ρ5>ρ7 Analyss can be obtaned: n the prmary ndustry, Zao Zhuang cty s greater degree of correlaton. And then s We Ha.He Ze s the smallest degree n the frst ndustry Jnan Qngdao Zbo Zaozhuang Dongyng Yanta Wefang Jjng Taan Weha Fgure 4 Dstrbuton of Secondary ndustral structure n varous ctes Table 4 Gray comprehensve correlaton degree of the secondary ndustral structure n Shandong Provnce ρ =.6554 ρ =.873 ρ 3 =.6793 ρ 4 =.7939 ρ 5 =.47 ρ 6 = ρ 7 =.954 ρ 8 = ρ 9 =.886 ρ =.846 ρ =.7755 ρ = ρ 3 = ρ 4 = ρ 5 =.864 ρ 6 =.96 ρ 7 =.6547 Sort results are: ρ7> ρ6 > ρ4 > ρ 9 > ρ8 >ρ5 > ρ6 >ρ > ρ > ρ3 > ρ4 > ρ>ρ > ρ3 >ρ7 >ρ > ρ5 In the secondary ndustral structure, the output curve of We Fang Cty and the provnce's output value of the curve would lke to close n the frst ndustry. And then s Bn Zhou Cty. The second ndustry assocated wth the smallest Dong Yng Cty. 33

7 Jnan Qngdao Zbo Zaozhuang Dongyng Yanta Wefang Jjng Taan Weha Fgure 5 Dstrbuton of tertary ndustral structure n varous ctes Table 5 Gray comprehensve correlaton degree of the tertary ndustral structure n Shandong Provnce ρ =.4436 ρ =.649 ρ 3 =.8885 ρ 4 = ρ 5 =.449 ρ 6 = ρ 7 =.8384 ρ 8 = ρ 9 = ρ =.8488 ρ =.856 ρ = ρ 3 =.8737 ρ 4 = ρ 5 =.64 ρ 6 =.7478 ρ 7 =.5687 Sort results are: ρ9 >ρ3> ρ3>ρ6> ρ8> ρ> ρ>ρ7>ρ4>ρ6>ρ > ρ4> ρ >ρ5> ρ7 >ρ > ρ5 In the analyss of the tertary ndustry structure, we can see Ta An Cty, Zbo Cty s larger correlaton wth the provnce's tertary ndustry output value, and Dong Yng Cty, the lowest. Through the analyss of the ndustral structure of the prefecture-level ctes n Shandong Provnce and the ndustral structure of the total output value, we can see: () Irratonal ndustral structure n Shandong Provnce and ts proporton of the secondary ndustry s hgh. Although the proporton of tertary ndustry n Shandong Provnce has ncreased, but the status of heavy ndustry that domnated the status quo has not changed. And manufacturng as one of the man contents of the secondary ndustry, whch s an mportant pllar of the economy n Shandong. Therefore, the ndustral pattern that two, three, one" has not been a fundamental mprovement n Shandong Provnce. And most of the manufacturng ndustry s the hgh-carbon ndustry, whch also determnes hgh-carbon ndustry s the domnant poston n the current stage of Shandong Provnce. () Larger regonal economc development gap. The contrbuton rate of the eastern part of the pennsula s relatvely hgher than that of the central and western regons. The dfferences n regonal economc development also put forward dfferent requrements for varous ctes. (3)Unbalanced regonal ndustral structure development. As the sgnfcant dfferences orgnal level of economc development n Shandong Provnce, resource endowment and regonal ndustral structure are also bg gap. Zao Zhuang, Yan ta, We ha and other ctes n the provnce's prmary ndustry account for a large proporton the larger proporton.we fang, Texas, Bn Zhou manly developed the second ndustry, these ctes are manly rely on energy consumpton to stmulate the economy. Zbo, Ta an, Ln y are the most smlarty n the provnce's tertary ndustry, that s, the provnce's tertary ndustry a hgher mpact. 34

8 4. Copng strateges (). Make full use of regonal advantages and rely on the blue economc zone strategy. Shandong Provnce s located n the coastal areas. Strategc locaton, land and sea transport facltes and near the Yellow Sea and Boha Sea make Shandong easly carry out wth foregn technology, nformaton exchange. So the eastern regon could obtan external development. Shandong Provnce should contnue to make full use of ths locaton advantage, and strengthen economc tes wth coastal provnces and foregn developed countres or regons. Strengthen the drven functon of Jnan and Qngdao and gve full play to ts gatherng and radaton functons to the development of the cty. (). Increase government support to the west. Narrowng the gap between regons s a long-term arduous task, whch not only requres both local governments to rely on ther own efforts, but also need government departments gve tlt support and project support n the constructon, openng up, nvestment and scence and educaton. They should focus on traffc, Post and telecommuncatons, farmland water conservancy and other nfrastructure projects. Support the coastal areas to some of the prmary processng, hgh energy consumpton ndustres and labor-ntensve ndustres to the west transfer, nvestment support, and actvely gude the provnce's professonal banks to ncrease the scale of nvestment n the western regon. (3). From the aspect of promotng the coordnated development of the eastern and western regons, the government should ncrease fnancally support and development of the western regon, push the nvestment promoton work to the nland areas and make full use of the western regon Owned resources and labor advantages, promote ndustralzaton, nurture and strengthen the pllar ndustres, and acheve a new breakthrough n ndustral development drven by ndustralzaton of urbanzaton. (4) Vgorously strengthen the development of other ndustres hghly related to strategc ndustres. Strategc ndustry s a relatvely dynamc concept, a specfc perod of strategc ndustres wth the realzaton of strategc objectves. When Shandong Provnce determne the ndustral strategy, not necessarly lmted to the current sze of ndustry n the natonal economy and the level of effcency, but also subordnate to mprove the level of ndustral technology development and the heght needs of the future ndustry. 5. Concluson and dscusson Gray relatonal analyss s a quanttatve descrpton of the development trend of the system and comparson method []. Through the gray correlaton analyss can make the gray system of the structure, model and relatonshp from black to whte, so that uncertan factors gradually clear. In ths paper, we use the gray relatonal analyss method to fnd the prmary and secondary relatons n the system factors, fnd out the mportant factors that affect the target value, so as to master the man features of the system, whch can effectvely promote the development of the system []. Through the quanttatve analyss of the economc development of Shandong Provnce, we can get some shortcomngs n the economc development of Shandong Provnce, there s a large gap between the regons, and ndustral development s unreasonable. Therefore, n order to make Shandong Provnce have better development space and the future, we must seze the advantages of ndustry, vgorously develop the tertary ndustry, n the development of hgh economc level areas, but also vgorously support the weaker areas, to acheve the future Shandong! References [] J.L.Deng. Gray theoretcal bass. Wuhan: Huazhong Unversty of Scence and Technology Press, [] J.Cao, Gray system theory and method [M]. Harbn: Northeast Forestry Unversty Press, [3] S.F.Lu, Y.J.Yang, L.F.Wu, etc. Gray system theory and ts reference seventh edton,

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