Self-organizing Evolution Mechanism of Regional Logistics System Based on Biology Community Theory *

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1 Self-orgazg Evoluto Mechasm of Regoal Logstcs System Based o Bology Commuty Theory * Lgyu Zhou 1, Mu Dog 1 1. School of Ecoomcs ad Maagemet of Beg Jaotog Uversty, Beg , Cha zlycsu@163.com; mueast@gmal.com Yuehwer Yh. School of Idustry Egeerg of Purdue Uversty, West Lafayette, IN, 47906, USA yh@purdue.edu Abstract the developmet of regoal logstcs system s a typcal self-adaptg ad self-orgazg evoluto process. Accordg to the structures ad operato of regoal logstcs, the self-orgazg characterstcs of regoal logstcs syergetc evoluto are aalyzed. Moreover, the space evoluto phases of regoal logstcs system are educed based o the complex system theory, ad the eterprse commuty ad dustry evoluto rules of regoal logstcs system are deduced o the bass of the comparablty betwee bology commuty ad regoal dustry commuty wth the che theory of bology commuty. Furthermore, the self-orgazg evoluto equatos of regoal logstcs system are bult to fd evoluto order parameters, ad the syergetc developmet mechasm of regoal logstcs system s put forward for effectvely adustg the regoal logstcs dustry structures ad acceleratg the syergetc evoluto of regoal logstcs. Keywords-regoal logstcs system; self-orgazg; bology commuty; syergetc evoluto; complex system I. INTRODUCTION Syergetc developmet has bee the am ad tred of huma socety ad ecoomy developmet. Nowadays, may eterprses ofte rely o the syergetc strategy supply chas to w the marketg [1-3], ad may coutres, regos ad ctes are also mplemetg ad perfectg the syergetc strategy of regoal ecoomy to accelerate the regoal developmet [4-6]. Regoal logstcs system that s oe of regoal systems s the tegrato of all kds of logstcs systems ad elemets oe regoal zoe wth the commo ecoomc attrbute. Moreover, t s the artery of coutry ad regoal developmet, the accelerator of regoal ecoomy, the lgamet lkg the producto ad cosumpto, the bass of socety developmet ad huma lvg level elevato ad the symbol of evaluatg the moderzato level of oe regoal zoe. The syergetc developmet of the regoal zoe eeds the s yergetc developmet of the regoal logstcs system. People must grasp the evoluto law of regoal logstcs uder the framework of regoal syergetc developmet accordg to the characters of the regoal stato, dustres, crculato, ad the establsh the syergetc developmet mechasm ad platform; thereby people ca accelerate the syergetc ad orderly evoluto of the regoal zoe. The establshmet of regoal syergetc logstcs system wll play a mportat role mprovg the effcecy ad qualty of regoal logstcs, ad t s proptous to reduce the repeat logstcs buldg ad make full use of publc frastructure ad formato resources, moreover, t ca accelerate the ratoalzato layout of regoal logstcs, reduce logstcs cost, ehace the competto ablty of regoal logstcs, ad realze the syergetc ad cotual developmet of regoal logstcs. Some researchers have bee payg more atteto to the syergetc developmet of regoal logstcs system, ad they have obtaed some research achevemets from dfferet perspectves. Ralf Elbert ad Robert Schöberger aalyzed how regoal value chas speed up global supply chas through logstcs cluster [7], ad Haass ad Elbert also aalyzed the regoal logstcs effects ad fuctos global supply chas from logstcs cluster perspectve [8]. Moreover, autoomous cooperato ad complex adaptve systems theory were appled logstcs ad supply cha etwork research, ad some the complexty ad adaptablty of regoal logstcs ad supply cha were dscussed [9-13]. Furthermore, the syergy cootato ad mechasm of regoal logstcs system drawed some attetos, ad Qgqg u ad Lx Mao put forward the syergy developmet modes of regoal logstcs [14], ad Jazh Gao, Yao Zhao, etc., aalyzed the coordated developmet framework of regoal logstcs system cludg the teral coordato ad the exteral coordato [15]. The paper wll tegratg use bology commuty theory ad complex system theory ad try to study the self-orgazg evoluto mechasm of regoal logstcs system based o the comparablty betwee bology commuty evolvemet ad regoal logstcs developmet. II. THE SELF-ORGANIZING CHARACTERISTICS OF REGIONAL LOGISTICS SYSTEM The regoal logstcs system s a self-adaptg ad selfharmozg system, whch cossts of all logstcs dustry subsystem oe rego, cludg trasportato, storage, dstrbuto, load ad uload, trast, packagg, crculato process, formato servce, etc. The regoal logstcs system s also a self-orgazg system whch s evolvg from a old structure to a ew structure. The olear coecto betwee logstcs dustres a regoal zoe s a result of cooperato ad competto of logstcs dustres, whch s developg from a out-of-order state the elemetary phase to a orderly state advaced phase. The regoal logstcs system has the followg characterstcs. *The Proect supported by The Natoal Natural Scece Foudato of Cha ad Jot Research Program of The Chese Academy of Egeerg "Log-term Developmet Strategy Research." Grat No. U ) ad Basc Idustry Research Ceter of BJTU

2 A. Opeg characterstc The regoal logstcs system s a opeg system, whch ca exchage matter, formato, eergy wth the evromet. O the oe had, the evromet put forward the all kds of matters, formato, people ad captal for logstcs system, ad has a mportat effect o the busess strategy of all eterprses logstcs system. O the other had, logstcs system outputs product, techologes, servce, etc. Moreover, t ca be sutable for the demads of the evromet, try ts best to chage the evromet, ad establsh the favorable developmet evromet. The ma characterstc of the opeg s the put ad output exchage betwee the logstcs system ad the evromet. Nowadays, formato ad kowledge, place of groud, matter ad captal, become the domat resources of logstcs system. B. No-balaced characterstc The regoal logstcs system s ot a solated or slet system. It coects the out evromet early, ad t vares by tme. Moreover, ts bosom has the characterstcs such as heterogeety ad dversfcato, ad ts resource dstrbutg, developg of ts subsystems, etc. are obalaced, so t s oe kd of system apart from the obalace status. The self-orgazg theory emphaszes that the o-balace status s the source of balace status. I the developg process of regoal logstcs dustres, oly the establshmet of the syergetc mechasm ca break the balace status, make the logstcs system be apart from the balaced status ad keep the vtalty of regoal logstcs system. C. Fluctuatg magfcato Achevg the order of systems through fluctuatg magfcato s the bass prcple of self-orgazg theory. I oe ope system apart from the balaced status, fluctuatg s the er factor of system evoluto, whch plays the costructve role. If there s o fluctuatg, the system wll ot perceve the ew order structure, ad the there are ot the olear assocato magfcato ad the formg of the order parameter, so the evoluto of the system wll ot operate. Because of the effects of er ad exteror factors the logstcs dustry system, the fluctuatg magfcato s ubqutous, for example, the dffereces betwee logstcs dustres, the heghts of logstcs techologes, the heght of perso ablty, the fluctuatg of captal, ad so o. D. Nolear effects Oe ma opo of the self-orgazg theory s that the mutual effect betwee elemets or subsystems s the fudametal mechasm of system order evolvemet. Depedg o the olear effects, oe system brgs the whole acto. The mutual olear effects clude maly the followg aspects: the mutual effects betwee logstcs dustres, betwee logstcs eterprses ad betwee logstcs orgazato departmets; the mutual effects amog logstcs techology ovato, orgazato ovato ad market ovato; the mutual effects amog captal, techology ad labor. Moreover, there are dffereces these effects o the system, ad these effects are mbalaced. After the domatg varables make the system pass through the crtcal stablty spot, the kd of dffereces ad mbalaces wll emerge. III. THE SELF-ORGANIZING EVOLUTION PHASES OF REGIONAL LOGISTICS SYSTEM The regoal logstcs system s a complex system, whch locates the complex exteror evromet. The regoal logstcs system ad ts evromet are affectg ad depedg o each other. Durg the exchages betwee them such as formato, eergy, captal, kowledge, etc., the regoal logstcs system begs to ceaselessly evolve, so the regoal logstcs system s a dyamcal complex system. The evoluto of regoal logstcs system composes a dyamcal evoluto process, whch cludes the evoluto of space system ad dustry system of regoal logstcs. A. Evoluto Phases of Regoal Logstcs Space System Due to the o balace of rego ecoomy, the formg ad developg phases of regoal logstcs space system dfferet perods are smlar wth the formg ad developg phases of regoal ecoomy. The evoluto phases of regoal logstcs system are llustrated as tableⅠ accordg to the cty ecoomy evoluto theory. TABLEⅠ. COMPARABILITY BETWEEN CITY ECONOMY EVOLVEMENT AND REGIONAL LOGISTICS SPACE EVOLVEMENT Evolvemet of regoal ecoomy Pot rego ecoomy Le rego ecoomy Network rego ecoomy Crcle rego ecoomy Syergetc evolvemet of regoal logstcs space system Pot covergece of regoal logstcs eterprses Le covergece of regoal logstcs eterprses Strp covergece of regoal logstcs dustry Crcle covergece of regoal logstcs dustry 1) Pot Covergecy Evoluto of Regoal Logstcs Because of hstorcal, facttous or haphazard factors, the ctes ad tows came to beg, whch made the pot ecoomy of cty ad tow form. Logstcs s the mportat supportg system for the developmet of cty ad tow, ad there are logstcs demads these ctes ad tows, so some logstcs resources eter the ew areas where the basc codtos of logstcs are good ad the ecoomy develops well. Wth some relevat logstcs eterprses eterg the area, the pot covergece tred of regoal logstcs comes to beg the area. Because of the ecoomy of cty ad tow s prmordal, there are oly few regoal logstcs eterprses the developmet phase,, ad the desty ad competece of regoal logstcs eterprses s low. Thereby, the pot covergece phase s the begg perod of regoal logstcs system. ) Le Covergecy Evoluto of Regoal Logstcs

3 Wth the developmet of cty ad tow, the goods terchagg demads betwee ctes ad tows crease rapdly, so the logstcs chaels such as roads, ralways ad lad came to beg. These logstcs chaels ca mprove the ecoomy ad attracts the ecoomy resources ad elemets to get together alog theses logstcs chaels. Furthermore, there are more specalzato work subdvsos betwee logstcs eterprses, ad thereby the le covergece of regoal logstcs eterprses comes to beg. Theses logstcs chaels coect ctes ad tows each other, the le covergece characterstc of regoal logstcs eterprses become more obvous wth the ecoomy developmet of these ctes ad tows. I the phase, regoal logstcs eterprses get together, ad all logstcs subsystems compete wth each other. Therefore, the phase s the fast developg perod of regoal logstcs eterprses. 3) Network Covergecy Evoluto of Regoal Logstcs Wth the developmet of regoal ecoomy, there are more regoal logstcs demads, whch accelerate the costructos of logstcs chaels ad odes. Uder the che codtos of the logstcs dustry, the agrcultural logstcs frastructural etwork s gradually takg form ad beg perfected, ad moreover the le covergece of regoal logstcs dustry ca self-evolve as oe ew state because of may exteror ad teror factors, such as the demads of exteror evromet, the costructo of teror frastructure, all kds of radom fluctuatg, etc. O the bass of the le covergece of regoal logstcs ad regoal ecoomy, all kds of regoal logstcs chaels, odes ad logstcs subdustry beg to emerge. Thereby, the le covergece of regoal logstcs upgrades, moreover, the le covergece of regoal logstcs eterprses ca self evolve as the etwork covergece of regoal logstcs dustry. 4) Crcle Covergecy Evoluto of Regoal Logstcs Wth the developmet of regoal logstcs etwork, more ad more regoal logstcs etworks come to beg, the superposto reacto ad syergstc effect of regoal etwork go to effect, ad the radal force of regoal logstcs etwork upgrades, therefore, the etwork covergece of regoal logstcs ca eter oe syergetc developmet state through the drvg of the etwork cty ecoomy, amely whe parameters of outfeld ad teror cotrol parameters reach crtcal values, the etwork of regoal logstcs ca eter the regoal logstcs crcle covergece phase. The crcle covergece of regoal logstcs s wth the characterstc of hgh homogeety ad has the powerful attractve force ad radato force, so t ca make the regoal ecoomy eter the tegrato developmet. B. Evoluto Phases of Regoal Logstcs Ecoomy System Due to the comparablty betwee bology commuty ad regoal dustry commuty [16], the formg ad developg phases of regoal logstcs system dfferet perods ca be deduced based o the che theory of bology commuty boomcs [17]. The evoluto phases of regoal logstcs system are llustrated as table 1 accordg to the ecosystem evoluto theory. TABLE I. COMPARABILITY BETWEEN BIOLOGY COMMUNITY AND REGIONAL INDUSTRY COMMUNITY Evolvemet of Syergetc evolvemet of regoal bology commuty logstcs system break covergece of regoal break phase logstcs eterprses commuty of regoal logstcs ecess phases eterprses developmet phase regoal logstcs dustry cluster evoluto phases regoal logstcs creatve etwork 1) Ibreak Phase:Ibreak Covergecy Evoluto of Regoal Logstcs Eterprses The break covergece of bology commuty deotes that bology speces leave the tal crcumstace ad move to a ew evromet for lvg because of atural ad huma factors [18]. The trasferg ad scatterg s the precodto of bology speces. Because of hstorcal, facttous or haphazard factors, some logstcs eterprses eter the ew area whch the che codtos of logstcs are good. The logstcs che attracts some relevat logstcs eterprse to get together, ad the the covergece tred of regoal logstcs eterprses comes to beg. I the developmet phase, there are few regoal logstcs eterprses, ad the desty of regoal logstcs eterprses s low, so there s almost o competece logstcs market. Besdes, there s o specalzato of work subdvso the logstcs area, so the usage rate of logstcs resources used by logstcs eterprses s very low. ) Ecess Phase : Evoluto of Regoal Logstcs Eterprse Commutes The ecess phase of bology commuty deotes that oe bology speces beg to grow, develop ad propagate the ew evromet after trasferg. I the phase, some bology speces ca lve ad propagate after trasferg, but other bology speces have ot the competto ablty ad may dsappear because they are exclude by some resdet bology speces, thereby the ecess phase s also called the teractoal phase. The regoal logstcs eterprse commuty deotes the coloy that cetralze ad work together the specfcally area for otly completg the regoal logstcs servce producto ad tasks, ad t s formed due to the self multplyg ad work subdvso specalzato of regoal logstcs eterprses. The phase s the mddle developmet perod of regoal logstcs whch every logstcs eterprse must face the kee competto, ad the obvous characterstc of the phase s the accessblty of zoe space ad logstcs specalty. 3) Developmet Phase: Evoluto of Regoal Logstcs Idustry Cluster The developmet phase of bology commuty deotes that the survval bology speces develop well together by sharg ad takg full use of atural resources. I the phase, these good characterstcs of bology commuty are remaed by evolutoary geetcs [19], ad the amout of

4 bology commuty ad desty are creased, ad the relatve balace betwee bology speces s realzed through the bology competto. Eterprse commuty ca evolve to a dustry cluster through the competto ad coevoluto [0]. The regoal logstcs dustry cluster deotes that regoal logstcs subdustry leaded by oe or several domat agets aggregate ad form the regoal logstcs system of dustry cluster, ad t s evolved from regoal logstcs eterprse commuty to a ew steady phase wth such characterstcs as reasoal layout ad syergc developmet, amely uder the olear effects betwee regoal logstcs eterprse commuty subsystems, the order parameters are produced to compel logstcs eterprse commuty to evolve to a more effcet ad reasoable system. The regoal logstcs dustry cluster has such characterstcs as the comparablty space, dustry ad socety, the syergy betwee agets, etc., so t s the advaced phase of regoal logstcs ecoomy developmet. 4) Syergy Evoluto Phases: Evoluto of Regoal Logstcs Creatve Network The syergy evoluto phase of bology commuty deotes that oe bology speces ca evolve to a ew speces to adapt tself to the chage of other bology speces. The syergy evolvemet of bology speces make them adapt to each other ad otly develop well, ad the compose ad amout of bology speces are more reasoable. Uder the drvg of radom fluctuato ad the domato of order parameter, dustry cluster may a more advaced system [1]. Thereby, a regoal logstcs dustry cluster ca evolve to a regoal logstcs creatve etwork wth the hghest stablzato ad ratoalty through the syergy of study, techology, servce ad operato. The regoal logstcs creatve etwork deotes that all regoal logstcs agets ad subsystems form a syergc servce etwork through the creatve resource flow ad allocato, ad t has such obvous characterstcs as the comparablty of space, dustry ad socety betwee agets, the regularty of competto syergy ad dyamc ovato, so t s the most advaced phase of regoal logstcs dustry cluster. IV. THE SELF-ORGANIZING EVOLUTION MECHANISM OF REGIONAL LOGISTICS SYSTEM A. Evoluto of the Commutes of Regoal Logstcs Eterprses Wth the covergece developmet of logstcs eterprses, there are more specalzato work subdvsos betwee logstcs eterprses, ad thereby the commuty of regoal logstcs eterprses comes to beg. Durg the evoluto process, there are terchages of matter, eergy, formato ad captal betwee regoal logstcs system ad ts exteral evromet, so the regoal logstcs system s affected by the terferg of ts exteral evromet ad teror fluctuatg; thereby the state of regoal logstcs subsystem, amely, s radom varable. s average statoary state value of, the real state If 0 of regoal logstcs system the tme of t s t, so the state varable of regoal logstcs system s expressed by t) 1) t If the logstcs system cossts of subsystems, accordg to the syergetc theory ad olearty dyamcs theory [], the state chage of the whole logstcs system s expressed by d K 1,,, ) t) dt where 1,,, ), ad s state varable of logstcs subsystem, the damp force K s the olearty fucto of all subsystems, amely 1,,,. t) 0 s the radom force of logstcs subsystem. I order to aalyze the equato expedetly, the radom force t) s gored at frst, ad the accordg to ), there s Where,,, ) f 1,,, ) 3) 1 f 1 s a olear fucto. Because the statoary state s steady, the coeffcet matrx of the learty tem of 3), amely ), s absolutely egatve, so a ew set of varables s troduced to make ) dagoalzable [3], thereby, there s Y Y g Y, Y,,Y ) 4) Where 1,,, 1, ad 1,,,Y ) g Y Y s a set of olearty fucto related to the state varables all logstcs subsystems, ad the damp coeffcet { } ofte vares wth the evromet codtos. I the stage, all logstcs subsystems compete wth each other; ther movemet s ot oly assocated but also dsorderly. If the affecto of radom force s take to accout, these subsystems oly fluctuate dsorderly. B. Evoluto of the Cluster of Regoal Logstcs Idustry Wth the developmet of commutes of regoal logstcs eterprses, more ad more regoal logstcs eterprses get together, ad there all kds of logstcs subdustres, such as trasportato, storage, dstrbuto, load ad uload, trast, packagg, crculato process, formato servce, etc. Therefore, the commuty of regoal logstcs eterprses ca eter oe syergetc developmet state through the olearty recprocty betwee all logstcs subsystems, amely whe parameters of outfeld ad teror cotrol parameters reach crtcal values, the commuty of regoal logstcs eterprses ca eter the crtcal state. Durg the process, the state varables

5 Y1, Y,, Y of all logstcs subsystems clude order parameter u whch domates the future developmet of the commuty of regoal logstcs eterprses. Accordg to syergetc theory, whe the cotrol parameters of oe system reach crtcal values because of evromet chage, order parameter u ca brg the pheomeo of crtcal slowg dow, ad ts damp coeffcet wll move to zero. Therefore, make Y u 1, the whe the commuty of regoal logstcs eterprses eters the crtcal state, there s Ad the other 5) 1 0 s more tha zero, amely 0,, ). Here, u s depedet varable; the other varables such as Y, Y3,, Y are depedet varables. Accordg domato elemet of syergetc theory, the depedet varables ca be processed wth adabatc approxmato way [], amely Y 0,3,, ) 6) Cosder 6) ad 4), there wll be: Y g u, Y, Y3,, Y ) 0 3Y3 g 3 u, Y, Y3,, Y ) 0 7) Y g 3 u, Y, Y,, Y ) 0 After solvg 7), the gaed solutos are as followg Y Y Y h u 3 h3 u ) ) 8) h u) Equato 8) shows that varables such as Y, Y3,, Y vary wth u, amely the movemet of all rego logstcs subsystems are domated by order parameter rego logstcs systems [4]. The domato brgs the coheret movemet whch shows the order characterstcs tme, space ad fucto, thereby, forces the commuty of regoal logstcs eterprses to evolve to the state of regoal logstcs dustry cluster. C. Evoluto of Rregoal Logstcs Creatve Network Uder the che codtos of the logstcs dustry, regoal logstcs dustry cluster ca self-evolve as oe ew state because of the chages of exteror evromet, the flueces of teror factors, all kds of radom fluctuatg, etc. Cosder 5), 8) ad radom fluctuatg, 4) ca be swtched to u u g u, Y, Y,, Y ) ) t 1u g1 u, H u), H 3 u),, H u)) t) K u) t) 9) Equato 9) s evoluto equato of order parameter regoal logstcs systems where K u) s the olearty fucto related to u ad t) s radom fluctuatg force. The equato shows that the developmet ad evoluto of the whole rego logstcs systems s domated by the order parameter rego logstcs systems. The order parameter u s oe subsystem of rego logstcs systems, ad t represets the domatve logstcs dustry. The order parameter u s a scalar quatty, also a vector. If u s a scalar quatty, t shows that there s oe domatve dustry logstcs systems; If u s a vector whch s m m dmesoal array, amely u u, u,, u ) 1 m, t shows that there s m domatve ad actg dustres of logstcs systems at the same tme. Accordg to the syergetc theory ad olearty dyamcs theory [,3], the order parameter equato of rego logstcs systems ca be vew as the radom moto equato of olearty damp oscllator from the ve w of geeralzed sese. t) s the stochastc drvg force, ad Ku ) s the restorg force of damp oscllator. Vu ) s the restorg force potetal of Ku ), t satsfes the followg requremets: K u) V u) 10) u Here, the evoluto equato of order parameters of rego logstcs dustry cluster system turs to du u dt 11) u V u) t) As a result, the developmet ad chage of rego logstcs dustry cluster system s uder the leadg of restorg force potetal Vu ) ad the drvg of stochastc fluctuatg force. So the shape of Vu ) ad ts leadg tred ultmately domate whether the rego logstcs dustry cluster system wll evolve to more advaced system, or fall to a decle. I the specfc logstcs rego, the shape of Vu ) ad ts leadg tred are affected by the che codtos of logstcs dustry, rego dustry feld, exteror cotrol parameters, etc. Whe dustry feld ad exteror cotrol parameters reach crtcal values, the regoal logstcs dustry cluster system ca eter the crtcal state uder the certa che codtos of logstcs dustry, equato 11) wll bfurcate solutos, amely bfurcatg pheomea. Here the regoal logstcs dustry cluster system may evolve to regoal logstcs creatve etwork system f the leadg tred goes upwards, thereby the rego logstcs systems wll exted ts fuctos. O the cotrary, the regoal logstcs dustry cluster system may

6 fall to regoal logstcs eterprses commuty system f the leadg tred goes upwards, thereby the rego logstcs systems wll reduce ts fucto grade. V. CONCLUSION The formg ad developg course of regoal logstcs system s the evoluto process from oe system structure to aother system structure. The syergetc evoluto smulato of regoal logstcs system s mportat, ad t ca provde the decso support of regoal logstcs dustry developmet wth relevat decso makers. Accordg to the evolvemet of bology commuty theory, the evoluto phases of regoal logstcs system dfferet phases should clude such four phases as covergece of regoal logstcs eterprses, commuty of regoal logstcs eterprse, regoal logstcs dustry cluster ad regoal logstcs creatve etwork. At the begg, some logstcs eterprses eter some ew areas wth good logstcs che codtos because of hstorcal, facttous or haphazard factors, ad the logstcs che attracts relevat logstcs eterprse to get together ad produces the covergece pheomeo of regoal logstcs eterprses. Wth the covergece developmet of logstcs eterprses, there s more specalzato work subdvso logstcs, ad thereby the commuty of regoal logstcs eterprses comes to beg. Moreover, the commutes of regoal logstcs eterprses ca evolve to the state of regoal logstcs dustry cluster through the olearty recprocty betwee logstcs subsystems whe parameters of outfeld ad teror cotrol parameters reach crtcal values. Uder the che codtos of the logs tcs dustry, regoal logstcs dustry cluster ca self-evolve as oe regoal logstcs creatve etwork system because of the chages of exteror evromet, the flueces of teror factors, all kds of radom fluctuatg forces, etc. But the regoal logstcs dustry cluster system may fall to regoal logstcs eterprses commuty system f the logstcs che codtos are ot good, ad parameters of outfeld ad teror cotrol do ot reach crtcal values. So logstcs che, outfeld evromet are also very mportat for the developmet of regoal logstcs dustry. REFERENCES [1] Kurt Horschld1999). 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