Historical Note. Regression. Line of Best Fit

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1 11 4 Regression Objective 4. Compute the equation of the regression line. In studing relationships between two variables, collect the data and then construct a scatter plot. The purpose of the scatter plot, as indicated previousl, is to determine the nature of the relationship. The possibilities include a positive linear relationship, a negative linear relationship, a curvilinear relationship, or no discernible relationship. After the scatter plot is drawn, the net steps are to compute the value of the correlation coefficient and to test the significance of the relationship. If the value of the correlation coefficient is significant, the net step is to determine the equation of the regression line, which is the data s line of best fit. (Note: Determining the regression line when r is not significant and then making predictions using the regression line is meaningless.) The purpose of the regression line is to enable the researcher to see the trend and make predictions on the basis of the data. Line of Best Fit Figure Scatter Plot with Three Lines Fit to the Data Figure shows a scatter plot for the data of two variables. It shows that several lines can be drawn on the graph near the points. Given a scatter plot, one must be able to draw the line of best fit. Best fit means that the sum of the squares of the vertical distances from each point to the line is at a minimum. The reason one needs a line of best fit is that the values of will be predicted from the values of ; hence, the closer the points are to the line, the better the fit and the prediction will be. See Figure Historical Note Francis Galton drew the line of best fit visuall. An assistant of Karl Pearson s named G. Yule devised the mathematical solution using the least-squares method, emploing a mathematical technique developed b Adrien Marie Legendre about 100 ears earlier. Figure shows the relationship between the values of the correlation coefficient and the variabilit of the scores about the regression line. The closer the points fit the regression line, the higher the absolute value of r is and the closer it will be to 1 or 1. When all the points fall eactl on the line, r will equal 1 or 1, and this indicates

2 Section 11 4 Regression 479 a perfect linear relationship between the variables. Figure 11 12(a) shows r as positive and approimatel equal to 0.50; Figure 11 12(b) shows r approimatel equal to 0.90; and Figure 11 12(c) shows r equal to 1. For positive values of r, the line slopes upward from left to right. Figure Line of Best Fit for a Set of Data Points d 6 d 7 Observed value d 5 d 3 d 1 d 2 d 4 Predicted value Figure Relationship between the Correlation Coefficient and the Line of Best Fit (a) r = 0.50 (b) r = 0.90 (c) r = 1.00 (d) r = 0.50 (e) r = 0.90 (f) r = 1.00 Figure 11 12(d) shows r as negative and approimatel equal to 0.50; Figure 11 12(e) shows r approimatel equal to 0.90; and Figure 11 12(f) shows r equal to 1. For negative values of r, the line slopes downward from left to right. Determination of the Regression Line Equation In algebra, the equation of a line is usuall given as m b, where m is the slope of the line and b is the intercept. (Students who need an algebraic review of the properties of a line should refer to Appendi A Section A 3 before studing this section.) In statistics, the equation of the regression line is written as ' a b, where a is the ' intercept and b is the slope of the line. See Figure

3 480 Chapter 11 Correlation and Regression Figure A Line as Represented in Algebra and in Statistics Slope Intercept Intercept Slope = m + b = = 2 = a + b = = 2 = 4 = 4 5 m = = 2 4 = b = = 2 4 = 0.5 (a) Algebra of a line (b) Statistical notation for a regression line Historical Note In 1795, Adrien Marie Legendre ( ) measured the meridian arc on the earth s surface from Barcelona, Spain, to Dunkirk, England. This measure was used as the basis for the measure of the meter. Legendre developed the least-squares method around the ear There are several methods for finding the equation of the regression line. Two formulas are given here. These formulas use the same values that are used in computing the value of the correlation coefficient. The mathematical development of these formulas is beond the scope of this book. Formulas for the Regression Line ' a b a 2 n 2 2 n b n 2 2 where a is the ' intercept and b is the slope of the line. Rounding Rule for the Intercept and Slope places. Round the values of a and b to three decimal Eample 11 9 Find the equation of the regression line for the data in Eample 11 4, and graph the line on the scatter plot of the data. Solution The values needed for the equation are n 6, 345, 819, 47,634, and 2 20,399. Substituting in the formulas, one gets a 2 n 2 2 n 6 47, b n , Hence, the equation of the regression line, ' a b, is ' , , ,

4 Section 11 4 Regression 481 The graph of the line is shown in Figure Figure Regression Line for Eample Pressure = Age Note: When drawing the scatter plot and the regression line, it is sometimes desirable to truncate the graph (see Chapter 2). The reason is to show the line drawn in the range of the independent and dependent variables. For eample, the regression line in Figure is drawn between the values of approimatel 43 and 82 and the ' values of approimatel 120 and 152. The range of the values in the original data shown in Eample 11 4 is and the range of the ' values is Notice that the ais has been truncated; the distance between 0 and 40 is not shown in the proper scale compared to the distance between 40 and 50, 50 and 60, etc. The ' ais has been similarl truncated. The important thing to remember is that when the ais and sometimes the ' ais have been truncated, do not use the ' intercept value, a, to graph the line. To be on the safe side when graphing the regression line, use a value for selected from the range of values. Eample Find the equation of the regression line for the data in Eample 11 5, and graph the line on the scatter plot. Solution The values needed for the equation are n 7, 57, 511, 3745, and Substituting in the formulas, one gets a 2 n 2 2 n b n Hence, the equation of the regression line, ' a b, is ' The graph of the line is shown in Figure

5 482 Chapter 11 Correlation and Regression Figure Regression Line for Eample Final grade = Number of absences The sign of the correlation coefficient and the sign of the slope of the regression line will alwas be the same. That is, if r is positive, then b will be positive; if r is negative, then b will be negative. The reason is that the numerators of the formulas are the same and determine the signs of r and b, and the denominators are alwas positive. The regression line can be used to make predictions for the dependent variable. The method for making predictions is shown in the net eample. Eample Using the equation of the regression line found in Eample 11 9, predict the blood pressure for a person who is 50 ears old. Solution Substituting 50 for in the regression line ' gives ' (0.964)(50) (rounded to 129) In other words, the predicted sstolic blood pressure for a 50-ear-old person is 129. The value obtained in Eample is a point prediction, and with point predictions, no degree of accurac or confidence can be determined. More information on prediction is given in Section 11 5, including prediction intervals. When r is not significantl different from 0, the best predictor of is the mean of the data values of. For valid predictions, the value of the correlation coefficient must be significant. Also, two other assumptions must be met. Assumptions for Valid Predictions in Regression 1. For an specific value of the independent variable, the value of the dependent variable must be normall distributed about the regression line. See Figure 11 16(a). 2. The standard deviation of each of the dependent variables must be the same for each value of the independent variable. See Figure 11 16(b).

6 Section 11 4 Regression 483 Figure Assumptions for Predictions s = a + b µ µ 2 µ n µ n (a) Dependent variable normall distributed (b) σ 1 = σ 2 =... = σ n When predictions are made beond the bounds of the data, the must be interpreted cautiousl. For eample, in 1979, some eperts predicted that the United States would run out of oil b the ear This prediction was based on the current consumption and on known oil reserves at that time. However, since then, the automobile industr has produced man new fuel-efficient vehicles. Also, there are man as et undiscovered oil fields. Finall, science ma someda discover a wa to run a car on something as unlikel but as common as peanut oil. In addition, the price of a gallon of gasoline was predicted to reach $10 a few ears later. Fortunatel this has not come to pass. Remember that when predictions are made, the are based on present conditions or on the premise that present trends will continue. This assumption ma or ma not prove true in the future. The steps for finding the value of the correlation coefficient and the regression line equation are summarized in the Procedure Table. Procedure Table Finding the Correlation Coefficient and the Regression Line Equation STEP 1 Make a table, as shown in Step 2. STEP 2 Find the values of, 2, and 2. Place them in the appropriate columns and sum each column STEP 3 Substitute in the formula to find the value of r. STEP 4 n r [n 2 2 ][n 2 2 When r is significant, substitute in the formulas to find the values of a and b for the regression line equation a b. a 2 n b n 2 2 n 2 2

7 484 Chapter 11 Correlation and Regression Eercises What two things should be done before one performs a regression analsis? What are the assumptions for regression analsis? What is the general form for the regression line used in statistics? What is the smbol for the slope? For the intercept? What is meant b the line of best fit? When all the points fall on the regression line, what is the value of the correlation coefficient? What is the relationship of the sign of the correlation coefficient and the sign of the slope of the regression line? As the value of the correlation coefficient increases from 0 to 1, or decreases from 0 to 1, how do the points of the scatter plot fit the regression line? How is the value of the correlation coefficient related to the accurac of the predicted value for a specific value of? For the data in Eercise 11 12, find the equation of the regression line, and predict ' when 7 ads For the data in Eercise 11 13, find the equation of the regression line, and predict ' when 35 ears For the data in Eercise 11 14, find the equation of the regression line, and predict ' when $ For the data in Eercise 11 15, find the equation of the regression line, and predict ' when 4 ears For the data in Eercise 11 16, find the equation of the regression line, and predict ' when 47 ears For the data in Eercise 11 17, find the equation of the regression line, and predict ' when For the data in Eercise 11 18, find the equation of the regression line, and predict ' when For the data in Eercise 11 19, find the equation of the regression line, and predict ' when 35 hours For the data in Eercise 11 20, find the equation of the regression line, and predict ' when For the data in Eercise 11 21, find the equation of the regression line, and predict ' when 400 calories For the data in Eercise 11 22, find the equation of the regression line, and predict ' when 0.27 milligram For the data in Eercise 11 23, find the equation of the regression line, and predict ' when 9 EER For the data in Eercise 11 24, find the equation of the regression line, and predict ' when 1.8 pints For the data in Eercise 11 25, find the equation of the regression line, and predict ' when For the data in Eercise 11 26, find the equation of the regression line, and predict ' when 4 ears For the data in Eercise 11 27, find the equation of the regression line, and predict ' when 4 ears. Eplain that to me. Source: Reprinted with special permission of King Features Sndicate, Inc. For Eercises through 11 61, do a complete regression analsis b performing the following steps. a. Draw a scatter plot. b. Compute the correlation coefficient. c. State the hpotheses. d. Test the hpotheses at Use Table I. e. Determine the regression line equation. f. Plot the regression line on the scatter plot. g. Summarize the results The following data were obtained for the ears 1993 through 1998 and indicate the number of fireworks (in millions) used and the related injuries. Predict the number of injuries if 100 million fireworks are used during a given ear. Fireworks in use, Related injuries, 12,100 12,600 12,500 10,900 7,800 7,000 Source: National Council of Fireworks Safet, American Protechnic Assoc The following data were obtained from a surve of the number of ears people smoked and the percentage of lung damage the sustained. Predict the percentage of lung damage for a person who has smoked for 30 ears.

8 Section 11 4 Regression 485 Years, Damage, A researcher wishes to determine whether a person s age is related to the number of hours he or she jogs per week. The data for the sample follow. Age, Hours, The following data were obtained from a sample of counties in Southwestern Pennslvania and indicate the number (in thousands) of tons of bituminous coal produced in each count and the number of emploees working in coal production in each count. Predict the number of emploees needed to produce 500 thousand tons of coal. The data are given here. Tons, No. of emploees, Tons, No. of emploees, A statistics instructor is interested in finding the strength of a relationship between the final eam grades of students enrolled in Statistics I and in Statistics II. The data are given here in percentages. Statistics I, Statistics II, An educator wants to see how the number of absences a student in her class has affects the student s final grade. The data obtained from a sample follow. No. of absences, Final grade, For Eercises and do a complete regression analsis and test the significance of r at 0.05 using the P-value method A phsician wishes to know whether there is a relationship between a father s weight (in pounds) and his newborn son s weight (in pounds). The data are given here. Father s weight, Son s weight, A car dealership owner wishes to determine if there is a relationship between the number of ears of eperience a salesperson has and the number of cars sold per month. The data are given here. Years of eperience, No. of cars sold per month, * For Eercises 11 12, 11 13, and 11 14, find the mean of the and variables, then substitute the mean of the variable into the corresponding regression line equations found in Eercises 11 40, 11 41, and and find '. Compare the value of ' with _ for each eercise. Generalize the results. * The intercept value, a, can also be found b using the following equation: a _ b _ Verif this result b using the data in Eercises and 11 43, and 11 44, and and * The value of the correlation coefficient can also be found b using the formula r bs s Where s is the standard deviation of the value, and s is the standard deviation of the values. Verif this result for Eercises 11 18, 11 19, and MINITAB Step b Step Technolog Step b Step Correlation and Regression These instructions use data from the age and blood pressure stud discussed in Eamples 11 1, 11 4, 11 7, and Eample MT Enter the data into two columns of the worksheet. Name the columns Age and Pressure. 2. Select Stat>Basic Statistics>Correlation. 3. Double-click Pressure and double-click Age. The dependent variable should be first. 4. Check the bo for Displa p-values.

9 486 Chapter 11 Correlation and Regression Correlation Dialog Bo 5. Click [OK]. The correlation coefficient will be displaed in the session window. It is r To make a scatterplot: 6. Select GRAPH>PLOT. 7. Double-click on Pressure for the [Y] variable and Age for the Predictor [X] variable. 8. The Displa tpe should be Smbol. If not, click the drop down list arrow and change it. 9. Click [OK]. A graph window will open showing the scatter plot. Plot Dialog Bo To determine the equation of the least-squares regression line: 10. Select Stat>Regression>Regression. 11. Double-click Pressure in the variable list to select it for the Response variable, Y. 12. Double-click Age in the variable list to select it for the Predictors variable, X. 13. Click on [Storage] then check the boes for Residuals and Fits. 14. Click [OK] twice. The session window will contain the equation of the regression line and additional analsis. Note that the P-value shown to the right of the Predictor Age, 0.015, indicates the significance of r. See the discussion after Eample 11 7.

10 Section 11 4 Regression 487 Regression Analsis: Pressure versus Age The regression equation is Pressure = Age Predictor Coef SE Coef T P Constant Age S = R-Sq = 80.4% R-Sq (adj) = 75.5% Analsis of Variance Source DF SS MS F P Regression Residual Error Total TI-83 Step b Step Correlation and Regression To graph a scatter plot: 1. Enter the values in L 1 and the values in L Make sure the Window values are appropriate. Select an Xmin slightl less than the smallest data value and an Xma slightl larger than the largest data value. Do the same for Ymin and Yma. Also, ou ma need to change the Xsci and Yscl values, depending on the data. 3. Press 2nd [STAT PLOT] 1 for Plot 1. The other functions should be turned off. 4. Move the cursor to On and press ENTER on the Plot 1 menu. 5. Move the cursor to the graphic that looks like a scatter plot net to Tpe (first graph), and press ENTER. Make sure the X list is L 1, and the Y list is L Press GRAPH. Eample TI11 1 Draw a scatter plot for the data from Eample Input Input Output

11 488 Chapter 11 Correlation and Regression The input and output screens are shown. To find the equation of the regression line: 1. Press STAT and move the cursor to Calc. 2. Press 8 for LinReg(a+b) then ENTER. The values for a and b will be displaed. In order to have the calculator compute and displa the correlation coefficient and coefficient of determination as well as the equation of the line, ou must set the diagnostics displa mode to on. Follow these steps: 1. Press 2nd [CATALOG]. 2. Use the arrow kes to scroll down to Diagnostic On. 3. Press ENTER to cop the command to the home screen. 4. Press ENTER to eecute the command. Eample TI11 2 Find the equation of the regression line for the data in the previous eample, as shown in Eample Input Output The input and output screens are shown. The equation of the regression line is ' To plot the regression line on the scatter plot: 1. Press Y and CLEAR to clear an previous equations. 2. Press VARS and then 5 for Statistics. 3. Move the cursor to EQ and press 1 for RegEQ. The line will be in the Y= screen. 4. Press GRAPH. Eample TI11 3 Draw the regression line found in the previous eample on the scatter plot. Output Output

12 Section 11 4 Regression 489 The output screens are shown. To test the significance of b and : 1. Press STAT and move the cursor to TESTS. 2. Press E (ALPHA SIN) for LinRegTTest. Make sure the Xlist is L 1, the YList is L 2, and the Freq is Select the appropriate alternative hpothesis. 4. Move the cursor to Calculate and press ENTER. Eample TI11 4 Test the hpothesis from Eamples 11 4 and 11 7, H 0 : 0 for the data in Eample Use Input Output Output In this case, the t test value is The P-value is , which is significant. The decision is to reject the null hpothesis at 0.05, since ; r , r Ecel Step b Step Scatter Plots Creating scatter plots in Ecel is straightforward using the Chart Wizard. 1. Click on the Chart Wizard icon (it looks like a colorful histogram). 2. Select chart tpe XY (Scatter) under the Standard Tpes tab. Click on [Net >]. 3. Enter the data range, and specif whether the data for each variable are stored in columns (as we have done in our eamples) or rows. Click on [Net >]. 4. The net dialog bo enables ou to set various options for displaing the plot. In most cases, the defaults will be oka. After entering the desired options (note that there are several tabs for this screen), click on [Net >]. 5. Use this final dialog bo to specif where the chart will be located. Click on [Finish].

13 490 Chapter 11 Correlation and Regression Correlation Coefficient The CORREL function returns the correlation coefficient. 1. Enter the data in columns A and B. 2. Select a blank cell, then click on the f button. 3. Under Function categor, select Statistical. From the Function name list, select CORREL. 4. Enter the data range (A1:AN, where N is the number of sample data pairs) for the first variable in Arra1. Enter the data range for the second variable in Arra2. The correlation coefficient will be displaed in the selected cell.