5 : ; <= FG M K M K & P, QR*+ S T U *0,/ VW X,Y W =? [\] %!? M M AN^ L _ S X 1 M K

Transcription

1 B 31C B D E ARID ZONE RESEARCH Vol.31 No.5 Sept.2014 doi: /j.azr !"#$%&' 1,,,, (, ) : !"#,$% Mann Kendal&' (M K ) Petit Mann Whitney Pet tit (MWP ) ()*+,-./*0 51, :;! <= >?@ABC,D@E, FG9,H$%IJ <K LMNO *+ PQ, D@E RSTU V+ WX: ; Z[ \][^ _`a,bc =,H X , 1985 * ; <, D@E;' D@E *+; >@A U : < ; = ;D@E; ;; ) A, 1, E D@E <?D@E! *+ E, < 4 >@A U < 4 >@ S U," S % S,U,<? D@E S,, >?D@E $ %IJ <K LMNO *+ WX, LMNO E % LMN O < K >? E 1 Y,$% Mann Kendal&' ( M K ) Petit Mann Whitney Petit ( MWP ) ()*+,-./*0,*+< >?@ABC < >?D@E! " #$%& %' ; <4, 990km, (#$4, 4( # 4) #$4 )*['+,-, 194 km; 4./0';, 502 km,1 N Y, \][ Z[^2 _`3%,I %4: (56789 ) YY # : ; U YY F, 4 ;! ,*+ 4 >@A U U >, + >@A, U F<%% >@ S,2 ;!? D@E = $% M K * ;! >?@ABC,/ $% Petit MWP ()*+,-./*0 41 >T, F*+, ; >?D@E, IJ <K LMNO *+ PQ,?! < >?D@E, F* + %@A 1 ()*: ; +,)*: /0: Z E! (973) (2011CB403303) 1 : b.e mail: xfrdc@sohu.com htp://azr.xjegi.com

2 5 : ; <= >?D@E FG M K M K & P, QR*+ S T U *0,/ VW X,Y W =? Z@ABC,U [\] %!? *+,!?@ABC M M AN^ L _ `E,?@ABC S X 1 M K %?ab c,h? -., U *0 / M K 2 X,* W?BC Z, W@A ^ β 9-10, % Z?@ABC Z WX BC,Z WX _% ^( )βw, β> 0,W BC; β<0,w %IBC M K %Y? D@? X? Z UF,? X? Z UB a α =0.05, * 0W ^ U 0.05 =±1.96 O UF UB, ^ U 0.05 =± /, UF, UB 0, WX? BC,_ 0 WX? %IBC; UF UB U 0.05,, WX? X bcbch ^ 95%, A 5 D@ UF, UB O 5 E, E ^, E?D@ &' Petit Petit 1979 c 5 1,? "# 5D@E, E 4"# MN*0? 2 = / Z 11 T?"# ^,2? E t,u?"#*t X 1,,X t, X t +1,,X T * Petit 5 U t, U t Y Y D@ MNU P: P(K T α)=1-exp -6K T 2 /(T 3 +T 2 ) (1) :K T =max U t ;α ^ P>P α, 1 t T W D@E BCX MNU P 1, D@E BC X MN P<0.95, W D@ ; P 0.95, W D@E; P 0.99,W D@E 1, MWP MWP S 1, W"# Z *0 8, % 1U *0 *+, *0 1 MWP Petit Y E U P 0 = 2exp -6k 0 2 (T 3 +T 2 ) 9, P 0 0.5, E t 0 D@E 5? KD@E, D@E? *, D@E, 5 KD@E ()*+ % *)? Y E τ,?' c%, Q `* E,3 /) a, _, /) a, 12? x t (t=1,2,,n), Y * E τ(1 τ n-1),* Q5* a, a,, _ a,r τ `* E 2 9:; ;! ,1958 4D.',>:N km 2 6!, , * =!$% ;! <K "#>? , " #, %6! "#, "#Y <!"# ( =); "#Y <K 0

3 930 E 31C 3!" #&' M K2!" #78 ;! <, = "#,$% M K? a α=0.05,;! <? Z=-1.04, =? Z= -1.82, Z <Z α =±1.96 Z, X? %IBCX <? ^ β=-2.011, =? ^ β=-0.022, ;! < a1bc ^ m 3 a -1, = a 1 b c ^ t a -1 U, ; a1 < bc ^X = 1, ; < UFO A 0 a %, X A b;1986 UFO 0 a %, X < bcbc a α=0.05, < UF, UBO 5 E, E ^, E 1986 ; <?D@ 1995 UF=-3.62,_ Z 0.05 =-1.96,,WX 1995? X bc BCH ^ 95%,U, ; < 5 D@ 2, ; = UFO a %, X = 1970 ' bcbc a α =0.05, = UF, UBO V5 E, E ^, E 1985 ; =?D@ 1987 UF= -4.19,_ Z 0.05 = -1.96,,WX 1987? X bcbc,h ^ 95%,U, ; = 5 D@ 4,; = 5 < 5 D@ 8a 3.2 Petit 2!" #78 3,; < U N BC, ; < M K D@ N Fig.1 M Ktestofsharpchangeofannualrunofvolume attoudaoguaihydrometricstation 2 ; = M K D@ N Fig.2 M Ktestofsharpchangeofannualsiltdischarge attoudaoguaihydrometricstation ; < (U t N Fig.3 Changehydrographofannualrunofvolumeat ToudaoguaiHydrometricStationfrom1950to2010 H, %IBC 1986 U t,p>0.99,u,1986? D@E 4,; = U N V BC,1985 H, % I B C 1985 U t,p>0.99,u,1985? D@E Petit D@E WX,; <, = =, ? D@E

4 5 : ; <= >?D@E FG9 931 MWP S, Y D@EU P 0,1986 ; <, = P 0 1_ 0.5, 5 <?, =? KD@E 1986 ; 1986? *, P 0, 1968? D@E U,; <, =?* 1968, 1986 < KD@ ; = (U t N Fig.4 Changehydrographofannualsiltdischargeat ToudaoguaiHydrometricStationfrom1950to ; <? a, Sn(τ)O Fig.5 Curveofsumofsquaresofdeviationsinannualrunof volumeseriesattoudaoguaihydrometricstationfrom 1950to2010 E, * , <=>782!" #78 5,; <? a, Sn(τ)O E, E K D@E /S* ?, Sn(τ) O E, E KD@E D@E*?* ; <? 2 D@EP 10a 6,; =? a, Sn(τ)O V E, E KD@E /S* ?, Sn (τ)o E, E KD@ E 2 D@E*?* ; =? 2 D@EP 5a 3.4?@A7B C!" # !" < < K <?,? < K? P, -. P > rh, ZP > r ;!" S # *0 U r, r P, r,$ %& a α=0.05, U α/2 =1.96, U r <U α/2, r $,? P'-.; -. 1 <; < = -. W 1 D 1?@E C Tab.1 Calculatedresultsofindependencetestfor ToudaoguaiHydrometricStation P > r P > r U r -. < = ; =? a, Sn(τ)O Fig.6 Curveofsumofsquaresofdeviationsinannualsilt dischargeseriesattoudaoguaihydrometricstation from1950to #$? / * 0, 'c 2 *0/ =??* 2 =? x 1,x 2,,x τ x τ+1,x τ+2,,x n, = *0 F 1 (x), = *0 F 2 (x) * E

5 932 E 31C F 1 (x) F 2 (x)/*0; /*0 $% ()*+ =? * ;$%&, * = *0 2 = _'?H,? R &!"S # *0 U w,%& a α=0.05, U α/2 =1.96, U w <U α/2, W F 1 (x)=f 2 (x), * E 2 = Y Z,S *0 * E 2 = Z,S *0 1 (1)1970 < >?* ( 567M<)*+, / S 4Y, SM< 9, SN^, < -- _,. / S , 0 1 M< %,567M<,5 < S ^ U, >, :, , >?* ;! ,V, *,56 U, /*0, , >?7 * 1970 < ; >?* (2) >?* 8 : * 1970 < >? * 8, ; < = /*0 (W 2) W 2, 1970 *? ; < = 19F"#? * Q, * E 2 =4-.,V S *0, Z : -./*0, X 1970 < * 8 T. U, 1970 < ; >?* 8 FS (3) >?* 8 :1985 ()*+,; 1985 < >?* 8, /*0 W 3, 1985 *?,; < = 19F"#? * Q, * E 2 =4-.,VS * 0, Z V : -. / * 0, X 1985 < * 8 T. U, 1985 < ; >? * 8V FS ; >?D@E 1 W $%&' ` E, V,U, ; >?D@E F G9,RSTUV+ ; >? D@E 1 *+,R STUV+ FG9 >?D@E FG9 1, 1, F<, 5< E,H F!= *+ E, YD@E 13,2 >? ;A@ BZ,$%BZC * ; >?D@E 51 -.C*, C*( (IJ@A D< YY : M %, ;, (E*, FS BZC* a 1 W 5 BZC*, /D@ E F< (W 6) D 2 A7B C 1 Tab.2 Calculatedresult1ofhomogeneitytestfor ToudaoguaiHydrometricStation * 8 U w /*0 -. /*0 < = D 3 A7B C 2 Tab.3 Calculatedresult2ofhomogeneitytestfor ToudaoguaiHydrometricStation * 8 U w /*0 -. /*0 < = D 4 3!" Tab.4 Summaryofidentificationresultsofsharpchange ofwater siltseriesattoudaoguaihydrometricstation M K Petit MWP ( )*+ -./ *0 < 1986, , , ,1985 = 1985, , , ,1985

6 5 : ; <= >?D@E FG9 933 D 5 3 FG7 Tab.5 Expertgradingresultsofsharpchangeofwater siltseriesattoudaoguaihydrometricstation < D@E BZ C* = D@E BZ C* M K M K Petit Petit MWP MWP ()* ()* /* /* BZ C*6 2 _, * 1.0 D 6 3 $%&' Tab.6 Comprehensiveresultsofsharpchangeofwater siltseriesattoudaoguaihydrometricstation 8 Y@ E BZC*, F E ' ' MWP ' -./* ' ()*+ -./* ' M K < Petit MWP ' M K ()*+ F ' ' MWP ' -./* ' M K Petit = ()*+ -./* ' MWP ' M K ' ()*+ F ' - F< = 8 Y@ EBZC*, /F D@E; = D@E 1985 F<, 0.506, U,1986, 1985 * ; <, = Y D@E F 14 P HIJKL78MN LMNO *+ < >?D@E GH,I 1 J K PQ *+,E ; MNI MN <,MN= > ( 7, 8) *+,; / 4MNI ( P) MN < ( W) P > * : : W= P (1) : W= P (2) : W=0.434 P (3) 7 ; MNI MN < > Fig.7 Relationshipbetweenaccumulatedprecipitationand accumulatedrunofvolumeattoudaoguaihydrometricstation WX,; < D@E , 1995 F< * , 0.148; = D@E , 1990 F< * , 0.084, < D@ E 1986 F<, 0.385, 51 8 ; MNI MN= > Fig.8 Relationshipbetweenaccumulatedprecipitationand accumulatedsiltdischargeattoudaoguaihydrometricstation

7 934 E 31C 3 P > * , (2),(3),1986 ; MNI MN < >O X b_, LMNO b_ 37.6%,O U,1986 ; < D@E ; / 4MNI ( P) MN= ( W s ) P > * : : W S = P (4) : W S = P (5) : W S = P (6) 3 P > * , (4)~(6),1968, 1986 ; MNI MN= 1985 LMNO b_ 31.3%, L MNO b_ 63.6% U,1985 ; = X ' O < >?D@E < S " % L M P, %4 :@A " % U NO< >? D@E U, ) : + RSTU U Y,< < Y, 1950 YIJH X bc, 1970 P,1997 Y IJbc ^ 4.0%; '; IJbc P X, 1970 P, , 1997 Y IJbc ^* 6.5%, 16.5%, D< ; < < 1%,U, <, U ; Y Y 1,15-16 ) N^, ; D < S : N, ' 2010 D<567 F S: N km 2,U,%4: S # : a1 ; a1y 58.6%, 1986, a %,# : ; a1y,1986 P X.- 16 WX,; 9:Q = W ), RMN ; a1 <, * , ,W 5X 4, 4 S R ^_`a% 8< * E W^ T < %,; a1 <,U M a * 1968, E,WXY Y 8 D@, U VL%,; YY D@ Z[ \][^ a R R MN ; 1968 Z[ \][^ %,; Y,Y ;1968 Z[^_`a Y ^b_, R, ^ _;Y bcbc 1986 \][^_`a, Z[ \] [^ WFa,; Y X bcb C,Y ^bc,# 4 <,= *Y < = < = X %I %& +,- ;! 1968 < < 62% 63%, 63%, Z[X^a * % I 53% 55%, 54%, Z[ \][^WFa %I 42% 44%, 38% W^ T = = 81% ~87%, Z[X^a I 74% ~84%, Z[ \][^WFa %I 60% ~78% 17 \ 18 VW <^, I < = LMNO X U,; <, = D@E* 1986, F ; <, = ' D@E

8 5 : ; <= >?D@E FG (1)$% M K *+ ;! >?@ABC 1986 <?D@, < 5 D@ ;1985 =?D@, = 5 D@ (2) F M K * +,$ % Petit MWP ()*+,-./*0 41,*+ ;! >?D@E,, XD@E FG9,RSTUV +9F (3) ;! >?D@E FG9,H$%IJ <K LMNO *+ PQ,D@E RSTU*+ ; Z[ \][ ^ a ;1986, 1985 * ; <, = 60a"#>? D@E, ' D@E PQ(References): 1 C M. :5_`,2011: YaoWenyi, XuJianhua,RanDachuan,etal.AnalysisandEvaluationofthe YelowRiver ssilt dischargeratingchangesituation M.Zheng zhou:yelowriverwaterconservancypres,2011: L a,bc, ],. 50 < N J. MN,2013,29(6): GaoZhaoliang,FuYanling,ZhangJianjun,etal.Responsesof streamflowandsedimentloadtovegetationrestorationincatch mentsontheloesplateau J.TransactionsoftheChineseSociety ofagriculturalengineering,2013,29(6): \,.< 50 I@ABC*+ J. S,2006,25(1): XuZongxue,ZhangNan.Long term trendofprecipitationintheyelowriverbasinduringthepast50 years J.GeographicalResearch,2006,25(1): ,,,. ()*+ c? E J.!,2011,31(1): ChenYuan zhong,lubaohong,zhangyude,etal.improvementofsequential clusteranalysismethodforextractingturningpointoftimeseries J.JournalofChinaHydrology,2011,31(1): ,, \,. 4 ;A@ U J. S,2011,66(3): QinYi,Zhang Xiaofang,WangFenglong,etal.Scourandsiltingevolutionandits influencingfactorsininnermongoliareach J.ActaGeographica Sinica,2011,66(3): , a, \,,!?@ E Y *+ J. Y,2007,25(4): LeiHongfu, XiePing,ChenGuangcai,etal.Comparisonandanalysisonthe performanceofhydrologicaltimeserieschange pointtestingmeth ods J.WaterResourcesandPower,2007,25(4): J. E ",2010,24(9): SunXiaoyi, HuangQiang,ZhangHongbo,etal.Eco hydrologicalcharacteristics oftheupstream ofyelow River J.JournalofAridLandRe sourcesandenvironment,2010,24(9): ,,L,.6 -\ D< * J.,2011,33(3): HeXiaohui, WuFang,GaoYajun,etal.Yearsdivisionofsilt dischargesalta tionofmaintributariesinhekouzhen Longmenreach J.Yelow River,2011,33(3): YueS,PilonP,CavadiasG.PoweroftheMann Kendalandspear man srhotestsfordetectingmonotonictrendsinhydrologicalseries J.JournalofHydrology,2002,259(1/4): XuZX,TakeuchiK,IshidairaH.Long termtrendsofannualtem peratureandprecipitationtimeseriesinjapan J.Journalof HydroscienceandHydraulicEngineering,2002,20(2): PetitAN.Anon parametricapproachtothechange pointprob lem J.AppliedStatistics,1979,28(2): ? E J.,1986(5): DingJing.Statisticaldetectionfor transitionpointinfloodtimesequences J.JournalofWuhanUni versityofhydraulicandelectricengineering,1986(5): a, \,,.!@ FG9 % J. Y,2005,23(2): XiePing,Chen Guangcai,LiDe,etal.Comprehensivediagnosismethodofhydro logictimeserieschange pointanalysis J.WaterResourcesand Power,2005,23(2): F,. D< < J.K,2010,55(4): FanHui,YangXiaoy ang.interannualchangecharacteristicsofrunofandsedimentload fromthemainstreamandmajortributariesoftheyelowriver J. JournalofSedimentResearch,2010,55(4): , a, a. *+ J." MN,2005,16(3): Zhang Shijun,YuWeiping,ZhangHongping.Sedimentcharacteristicsand thevarietytrendanalysisforupstreamyelowriver J.Journalof WaterResourcesandWaterEngineering,2005,16(3): ,,@_,. ; J. S,2009,64(5): RanLishan,WangSuiji,FanXiaoli,etal.Riverchannelchange attoudaoguaisectionanditsresponsetowaterandsedimentsup plyoftheupperyelowriver J.ActaGeographicaSinica,2009, 64(5): , c, ^.^a% # J.,2008,30(12): ShangHongxia,

9 936 E 31C ZhengYanshuang,ZhangXiaohua.Influenceofreservoiroperation tothesilt dischargeconditionsofning Mengchannel J.Yelow River,2008,30(12): \,,,. U *+ J.",2012,34(6): ZhaoGuangju,MuXingmin,TianPeng,etal.Thevariationtrend ofstreamflowandsedimentfluxinthemiddlereachesofyelow Riveroverthepast60yearsandtheinfluencingfactors J.Re sourcesscience,2012,34(6): IdentificationandComprehensiveDiagnosisofSharpChangeofAnnual RunofVolumeandSiltDischargeSeriesatToudaoguaiHydrometric StationintheUpperReachesoftheYelowRiver RANDa chuan, YAOWen yi, JIAOPeng, ZHANGPan, ZHANGNan (YelowRiverInstituteofWaterConservancyResearch,YelowRiverConservancyCommision,Zhengzhou450003,China) Abstract: BasedonthehydrologicaldatameasuredatToudaoguaiHydrometricStationduringtheperiodof ,theMann KendalRankingtest(M K testmethod),petitmethod,mann Whitney Petitmethod (MWPmethod),sequentialclusteringanalysisandindependentidenticalydistributedtestwereusedtoidentifyand comprehensivelyasesthetrendsofannualrunofvolumeandannualsiltdischargeaswelastheirsharpchanges alongthedesertwide valeyintheupperreachesoftheyelowriver,thesechangeswerevalidatedwiththedouble mascurveofstreamflowandsiltdischarge,andthephysicalcausesresultinginthesharpchangeswereanalyzed. TheresultsshowedthatthemostsignificantefectontheinflowandsiltdischargeatToudaoguaiHydrometricStation wastheoperationofliujiaxiaandthelongyangxiareservoirs.themeasuredresultsrevealedthatthesharpchanges ofstreamflowandsiltdischargeatthestationoccuredin1986and1985,andthesecondsharpchangeoccured duringtheperiod theresultscouldprovideabasisforanalyzingthechangesofstreamflowandsiltdis chargeandtheirdrivingfactorsattoudaoguaihydrometricstation. Keywords: annualrunofvolume;annualsiltdischarge;sharpchange;identification;toudaoguaihydrometric Station;theupperreachesoftheYelowRiver