Trends and Volatilities in Heterogeneous Patent Quality in Taiwan

Transcription

1 Received April, 009 / Acceped May 9, 009 J. Tecnol. Manag. Innov. 009, Volume 4, Issue Trends and Volailiies in Heerogeneous Paen Qualiy in Taiwan Wen-Ceng Lu *, Jong-Rong Cen, I-Hsuan Tung 3 Absrac Tis sudy analyzes paen rends and volailiies for ree eerogeneous qualiy paens in e Taiwan paen sysem from January 973 o June 006. Te esimaed models are symmeric GARCH (,) and asymmeric EGARCH (,), providing full sample, rolling sample, and ou-of-sample evidence. Tree differen paen ypes exibi increasing rends, using monly ime series daa from our samples. New design paens also sow ime-varying volailiy bu oer ypes of paens fail o rejec e ARCH LM es. Findings sow e asymmeric EGARCH (,) model suiable for new design paen ype roug ou of sample forecass.managemen. Keywords: paen rends; qualiy paens; Taiwan. * Correspondence o: Wen-Ceng, Lu, Deparmen of Economics, Ming Cuan Universiy, Taoyuan Couny, 333, Taiwan. TEL: ex. 345, bunsou.lu@msa.ine.ne Deparmen of Economics, Ming Cuan Universiy, Taoyuan Couny, Taiwan. Graduae Insiue of Indusrial Economics, Naional Cenral Universiy, Cungli, Taiwan 3 Graduae Insiue of Indusrial Economics, Naional Cenral Universiy, Cungli, Taiwan ISSN: (p:// Journal of Tecnology Managemen & Innovaion Universidad Albero Hurado, Faculad de Economía y Negocios

2 J. Tecnol. Manag. Innov. 009, Volume 4, Issue I. Inroducion Paen regisraion and applicaion rends frequenly describe a counry s ecnological capabiliies, and ac as a proxy for innovaion (see e.g. Pavi, 988; Pael and Pavi, 995; Grilices e al., 989; Marinova, 00). Mos researc on graned paens in e USA examines snapso images represening paen aciviies for a paricular ime period, based on a single-year or aggregaed annual informaion base. Volailiies and Trend for paens ave also been analyzed in e lieraure (see for example, Can e al., 004; McAleer e al., 006; Marinova and McAleer, 00; Marinova and McAleer, 003, Hoi and McAleer, 006). Hall (004) invesigaes a a ime series analysis of paens reveals a very significan srucural break beween 983 and 984 (daa is drawn from Hall e al. (00, 005)). Mos researc on rends and volailiies of graned paens focus on paen raio for differen counries a e US PTO (e raio of e number of paens lodged a e US PTO from a given counry o e oal number of paens regisered in e USA). Variaions in paen sare are of ineres because paen sare is a leading indicaor of ecnical innovaion. Moreover, knowledge of e socasic process underlying paen sare variaions provides crucial informaion regarding risk associaed wi innovaive aciviy over ime. Paens regisered by e US Paen and Trademark Office (PTO) represen an excellen source of informaion regarding ecnological srengs and marke ambiions for counries (see for example, Cen e al., 004) bu rarely see paen researc regisered in oer counries, especially in developing counries. Tis paper examines rends and volailiies in paen applicaions in Taiwan using monly ime series daa from 973 o 006. Paen applicaions approac sae-of-e-ar wic is e iges level of developmen, ecnique, or scienific field, acieved a a paricular ime. Tis work divides paens ino ree eerogeneous caegories by differen paen qualiy- Invenion, new uiliy model, and new design. Differen ypes of paens represen disinc innovaion qualiy in e Taiwan paen sysem. Invenion paens are more imporan and iger qualiy an new uiliy model and new design paens wic are a relaively small or applicaive innovaion. Taiwan paen sysem caracerisics are lised in Table. Tus, differen qualiy paens may exibi dissimilar paerns of rends and volailiies. Tis paper is e firs researc o invesigae rends and volailiies for differen qualiy paens in conras o previous empirical researces (in conrac o Can e al., 004; McAleer e al., 006; Marinova and McAleer, 00; Marinova and McAleer, 003, Hoi and McAleer, 006). Second, e sample period seleced for empirical analysis covers all graned paens wi lodged applicaion daes beween January 973 and June 006 (more an iry years). Te empirical analysis in is sudy is ineresing o conras wi previous sudies using US PTO daa during 975 and 998. Tird, volailiies are fundamenal o risk managemen in financial models a evaluae risk spillovers and describe e risk-reurn rade-off, suc as in porfolio selecion models and pricing of primary and secondary derivaives. Te esimaion of volailiies associaed wi paens would seem o be a crucial firs sep in is direcion. Four, Goel (999) saes a governmen suppors e paen sysem as a ool o correc marke imperfecions, ereby proibiing imiaing firms o benefi from cosly ecnologies developed elsewere. Te paen sysem assures appropriable reurns o invenors, and benefis sociey by revealing informaion o e public afer paen expiry. Paen laws were inroduced in e USA in e 780s. Te Taiwan paen sysem is differen from e American paen sysem. Tis invesigaion firs examines rends and volailiies in paen applicaions in Taiwan in conras o a in e US paen sysem. We repor a number of ineresing findings: firs, e esimaed models are symmeric GARCH (,) and asymmeric EGARCH (,). Tese provide full sample, rolling sample, and ou-of-sample evidence. Te Lagrange muliplier es of no ARCH effecs sows a new design paens exibi ime-varying volailiy bu new uiliy model and invenion paens canno rejec e null ypoesis of no ARCH effecs. Second, oal paen applicaions in Taiwan sow a generally increasing rend. Te rends clearly slope upward for e ree ypes of paens. Finally, is sudy finds e asymmeric EGARCH (,) model suiable for new design paen ype rougou sample forecass. ISSN: (p:// Journal of Tecnology Managemen & Innovaion Universidad Albero Hurado, Faculad de Economía y Negocios 70

3 J. Tecnol. Manag. Innov. 009, Volume 4, Issue Tis paper is planned as follows. Secion discusses e ime varying GARCH (,) and EGARCH (,) models. Secion 3 describes e daa used. Secion 4 presens our empirical resuls. Secion 5 gives some concluding remarks. for =,,..., n, were e socks (or movemens in e paen applicaions) are given by: ε =, ~ iid N(0,) () η II. Alernaive Models of Volailiy = + αε + β ω (3) Tis secion models paen applicaion volailiy in Taiwan. A new meod based on Engle s (98) pabreaking idea of capuring ime-varying volailiy using e auoregressive condiional eeroscedasiciy (ARCH) model can be applied o analyze paen applicaions. Subsequen developmens ave formed e ARCH family of models (see, for example, e useful surveys of Bollerslev e al., 99; Bollerslev e al., 994; Li e al., 00). Te generalized ARCH (GARCH) model of Bollerslev (986) as been e mos popular of ese models, especially for financial daa analysis. Tis work uses e EGARCH model o accommodae asymmeric beavior beween negaive and posiive socks (or ime series movemens). Analyzing paen volailiy can be quie differen from using GRACH models for Finance and Economics, in wic e main ineres is pricing financial producs. Volailiy is an ineren financial marke caracerisic, relaing o e esablised naure and modes of operaion. Esimaed volailiies are fundamenal o risk managemen in financial models a describe e risk-reurn rade-off. However, paens are a relaively new penomenon, expeced o ave considerable impac on indusrial economics, wi increasing concerns abou inellecual propery rigs and knowledge capial. Tis paper invesigaes paen applicaion volailiy in Taiwan, in addiion o paening rends already described, by esimaing e AR()-GARCH(,) and EGARCH(,) models, in wic e condiional mean of e paen applicaion follows an AR() process. Consider e saionary GARCH (,) model for e paen applicaions, y : y = φ + φ y + φ + ε φ () 3, < And ω > 0, 0, β 0 α are sufficien condiions o ensure a e condiional variance > 0, e ARCH (or α ) effec sands for sor run sock persisence, wile e GARCH (or β ) effec indicaes sock conribuion o long-run persisence (namely, α + β ). In Equaions () ~ (3), e parameers are ypically esimaed by e maximum likeliood meod o obain quasi-maximum likeliood esimaors (QMLE) in e absence of normaliy of η. Te condiional loglikeliood funcion is given as follows: l = log + ε Ling and McAleer (003) sow a e QMLE for GARCH (p,q) is consisen if e second momen is finie, a is, E( ε ) <. Ling and Li (997) sow a e local QMLE for GARCH (p,q) is asympoic normal if e four momen is finie, a is, E( ε 4 ) <, and e model is saionary and ergodic if (4) E ε ) <. ( Using resuls from Ling and Li (997) and Ling and McAleer (00a, b), e necessary and sufficien condiion for second momen exisence of ε is α + β < and, under normaliy, e necessary and sufficien condiion for for momen exisence is ( α + β ) + α <. Te Exponenial GARCH (EGARCH (,)) model (Nelson, 99) capures asymmeric beavior in condiional variance, namely: log = ω + α η + γη + β log, (5) β < ISSN: (p:// Journal of Tecnology Managemen & Innovaion Universidad Albero Hurado, Faculad de Economía y Negocios 7

4 J. Tecnol. Manag. Innov. 009, Volume 4, Issue Some disinc differences beween EGARCH and GARCH are presen as follows: () EGARCH is a logarim model of condiional variance, implying no resricions on parameers o ensure > 0 ; () β < is likely a sufficien condiion for exising momens and consisency of QMLE for EGARCH(,) (McAleer, e al., 007; Separd, 996). III. Daa Te US as firmly adoped e paen sysem for over wo cenuries, as a mecanism for proecing inellecual propery and simulaing innovaive aciviies. A governmen suppors e paen sysem as a ool o correc marke imperfecions, ereby allowing imiaing firms o benefi from cosly ecnologies developed elsewere. Te sysem assures appropriable reurns o invenors, and benefis sociey by revealing informaion afer paen expiry. Te sample period seleced for empirical analysis covers all paens wi lodged applicaion daes beween January 973 and June 006. Tis sudy obained paen daa from e official Taiwan PTO (TWPAT) Inerne webpage using e searc engine available (p:// Taiwan paen sysems comprise ree ypes of paens: invenion, new uiliy model, and new design paens. Taiwan paen caracerisics include paen validiy, examinaion, filing requiremens and so on. Tis paper summarizes Taiwan paen sysem caracerisics in Table. invenion paen new uiliy model paen New design paen Paen valid 0 years 0 years years Examinaion Subsanive examinaion on reques wiin ree years from filing dae Formaliy examinaion applicaions only. Wen claiming uiliy model paen rig, a ecnical repor sould be requesed o Taiwan IPO Subsanive, auomaic examinaion Filing requiremens. Any language is accepable for acquiring a filing dae.. Any language is accepable for acquiring a filing dae.. Any language is accepable for acquiring a filing dae.. Power of Aorney (can be submied wiin four mons of e filing dae). Power of Aorney (can be submied wiin four mons of e filing dae). Power of Aorney (can be submied wiin ree mons of e filing dae) 3. Assignmen (if any, can be submied wiin four mons of e filing dae 3. Assignmen (if any, can be submied wiin four mons of e filing dae 3. Assignmen (if any, can be submied wiin ree mons of e filing dae Table. Taiwan paen sysem caracerisics ISSN: (p:// Journal of Tecnology Managemen & Innovaion Universidad Albero Hurado, Faculad de Economía y Negocios 7

5 J. Tecnol. Manag. Innov. 009, Volume 4, Issue Toal paens invenion paens new uiliy model paens new design paens Toal paens invenion paens new uiliy model paens new design paens IV. Empirical Resuls IV.I Table. Correlaion coefficiens of ree ypes of paens, 973()-006(6) Trends in Tree Types of Paens Figs. -4 sow rends based on monly daa in Taiwan. Te ime period covered in is analysis is from January 973 o June 006. Toal paen applicaions in Taiwan sow a generally increasing rend and slope clearly upward for e ree ypes of paens. Taiwan paens for invenion, new uiliy model, and new design are generally very ig, as given in Table. New uiliy model and new design paens ave e iges correlaion of 0.96, followed by invenion and new uiliy model paens wi Invenion and new design paens rank ird wi a correlaion coefficien of Te ree ypes of paens display a similar rend paern and ave co-movemen penomenon. Figs. -4 exibi ime-varying volailiy of e monly differen paen ypes in Taiwan.. Ineresing feaures in ese series include e presence of clusering. Clusering seems mos noiceable during e laer period of our samples. Tese feaures reflec e ime-varying naure of volailiy in paen applicaions, jusifying e need for modeling condiional variances. If e Lagrange muliplier es of no ARCH effecs clearly rejecs e null ypoesis, accommodaing ime-varying volailiy wi an appropriae model would seem imporan. Te Lagrange muliplier es of no ARCH effecs sows a new Every kind of paens ( invenion, new uiliy model and new design paens) sows e similar ime series paerns. design paens exibi ime-varying volailiy bu new uiliy model and invenion paens canno rejec e null ypoesis of no ARCH effecs. One possible explanaion is a ere is no ARCH of GARCH effec in new uiliy model and invenion paen ime series. Furermore, new uiliy model and invenion paens do no ave volailiy cluser caracerisics like financial commodiy markes. Te nex secion focuses on volailiy analysis of new design paens. ISSN: (p:// Journal of Tecnology Managemen & Innovaion Universidad Albero Hurado, Faculad de Economía y Negocios IV.II IV.II.I Volailiies in Paen Applicaions Full Sample Esimaes Te remainder of is paper models volailiy in e logarim of differen paen ypes, namely e number of paens regisered in Taiwan conrased o a in e US. Undoubedly, new design paens provide srong suppor for ime-varying volailiies in e logarim of paens, wic jusifies e need for modeling condiional variances. Models are defined in GARCH (,) and EGARCH (,) are esimaed by e EViews 5.0 economeric sofware package using 40 monly observaions from January 973 o June 006. Te esimaions, based on QMLE, are presened in Table 3 and Table 4. Te AR esimaes range from o.65, and are significan in all wo models and four differen paen ypes, based on bo asympoic -raios. A similar commen applies for ime rend coefficiens, wic range from 0.00 o and are igly significan in all wo cases and four differen paen ypes. 73

6 J. Tecnol. Manag. Innov. 009, Volume 4, Issue Te second and four momen condiions noably saisfy bo GARCH and EGARCH, suggesing a e QMLE are consisen and asympoically normal. Resuls for new uiliy paens arise from an exremely ig esimaed α (or sor run persisence). Te oucome as e esimaed long-run persisence, ö α + ö β for new design paens an oer paen ypes., is larger Toal paens invenion paens new uiliy model paens new design paens φ 0.834*** (5.59).08*** (6.55) 0.54*** (4.59) 0.478*** (4.59) φ 0.84*** (9.76) 0.74*** (8.70) 0.887*** (34.09) 0.893*** (35.07) φ 0.00*** 3 (5.45) 0.003*** (6.56) 0.00*** (3.855) 0.00*** (3.39) ω 0.0*** 0.08*** 0.09*** 0.00*** (5.5) (3.544) (5.68) (5.30) α 0.49*** 0.8*** 0.49*** 0.0 (5.5) (.873) (5.36) (.8) β *** (.8) (.85) (0.54) (98.877) ARCH es *** (p-value) Second momen Four momen Noe:. *** denoes significance a e % level, ** a e 5% level.. -values are in pareneses. Table 3. GARCH resuls of ree ypes of paens, 973()-006(6) ISSN: (p:// Journal of Tecnology Managemen & Innovaion Universidad Albero Hurado, Faculad de Economía y Negocios 74

7 J. Tecnol. Manag. Innov. 009, Volume 4, Issue Toal paens invenion paens new uiliy model paens new design paens φ.034***.65*** 0.490*** 0.599*** (7.89) (8.339) (4.879) (6.356) φ 0.804*** 0.596*** 0.898*** 0.865*** (9.33) (.88) (39.3) (40.337) φ 0.00*** 0.004*** 0.00*** 0.00*** 3 (6.94) (8.46) (3.897) (4.409) ω *** (-4.74) -.646*** (-.90) *** (-3.970) (-0.75) α 0.580*** (5.69) 0.97*** (.764) 0.66*** (6.70) (3.55) γ 0.59** (.985) 0.80*** (.48) 0.4*** (.4) (-.777) β 0.80 (0.806) 0.38 (.33) (-3.79) 0.979*** (0.797) Noe:. *** denoes significance a e % level, ** a e 5% level.. -values are in pareneses. Table 4. EGARCH resuls of ree ypes of paens, 973()-006(6) GARCH(,) EGARCH(,) Roo mean squared error T ö ( + ( y y ) / ) = Mean Absolue error T + yö ( y ) = Teil inequaliy coefficien ( T + = T + = yö ( yö + y ) T + = y ) Table 5. Ou-of-sample forecas saisics ISSN: (p:// Journal of Tecnology Managemen & Innovaion Universidad Albero Hurado, Faculad de Economía y Negocios 75

8 J. Tecnol. Manag. Innov. 009, Volume 4, Issue Auor year Daa Paen source Main resuls McAleer, e al.. (007) Top foreign paening counries in e USA: Ausralia, Canada, France, Germany, Ialy, Japan, Korea, Neerlands, Sweden, Swizerland, Taiwan, Unied Kingdom US Paen and Trademark office Suiable model: AR()-GJR(,): Ausralia. AR()-GARCH(,): Neerlands, Swizerland. AR()-EGARCH(,): Canada, France, Ialy, Germany, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Sweden. Marinova, D. (00) Japan elecronics and veicle/ranspor equipmen paens in e USA US Paen and Trademark office Te asymmeric AR()-GJR(,) model is found o be suiable for moor veicle/ranspor equipmen. Marinova, D. McAleer, M. (003) US ecological paens US Paen and Trademark office Te asymmeric AR()-GJR(,) model is found o be suiable for modeling e ecological paen sare in e USA. Can e al. (004) Can e al. (004) US elecronics paens US Paen and Trademark office Top foreign paening counries in e USA: Ausralia, Canada, France, Germany, Ialy, Japan, Korea, Neerlands, Sweden, Swizerland, Taiwan, Unied Kingdom US Paen and Trademark office Table 6. Previous analysis of Trends and Volailiy Te asymmeric AR()-GJR(,) model is found o be suiable for modeling e elecronics paen sare in e USA. Te asymmeric AR()-GJR(,) model is found o be suiable for Ausralia and Japan. Te mos appropriae model for Germany was symmeric AR()-GARCH(,) model. All e β esimaes for EGARCH are less an one in absolue value, implying a all momens exis and a e QMLE are likely consisen and asympoically normal. No parameric resricion exiss for condiional volailiy o be posiive, as EGARCH is a logarim model of condiional variances. Te esimaes of EGARCH sugges a sign effec (γ ) is less imporan an size effec (α ) in cases of invenion paens and new uiliy model paens, and is saisically significan. β esimaes from EGARCH (,) for invenion and new uiliy model paens are no saisically significan. However, e sign effec (γ ) of new design paens are lower an size effec (α ). Tis indicaes a sign effecs ave larger impacs an size effecs on condiional variances. As Engle s (98) LM es does no rejec e null ypoesis of ARCH effec absence for invenion and new uiliy model paen ypes, one possible explanaion is a ere is no ARCH or GARCH effec in e series. Figs. 5-6 sow acual, fied residuals in e full sample. Models suiable for our sample are decided by ou of sample evidence discussed in e nex secion. ISSN: (p:// Journal of Tecnology Managemen & Innovaion Universidad Albero Hurado, Faculad de Economía y Negocios 76

9 J. Tecnol. Manag. Innov. 009, Volume 4, Issue Figure. Toal Taiwan paens by dae of applicaion Figure. invenion paens by dae of applicaion Figure 3. New uiliy model paens by applicaion Figure 4. New design paens by applicaion dae dae Figure 5. Fied, acual daa for GARCH model Figure 6. Fied, acual daa for EARCH model ISSN: (p:// Journal of Tecnology Managemen & Innovaionn Universidadd Albero Hurado, Faculad de Economía y Negocios 77

10 J. Tecnol. Manag. Innov. 009, Volume 4, Issue Figure. 7. Rolling GARCH(,) esimaes Figure 8. Rolling EGARCH (,) esimaes ISSN: (p:// Journal of Tecnology Managemen & Innovaion Universidad Albero Hurado, Faculad de Economía y Negocios 78

11 J. Tecnol. Manag. Innov. 009, Volume 4, Issue IV.II.II Rolling Esimaes Rolling esimaes wi a 00-window size and eir associaed momen condiions for eac model, are given in Figs. 7-8 o examine e impacs of eac observaion on model esimaes. T + = T + = yö ( yö + y ) T + = y (8) In e case of GARCH (,), e α esimaes exibi an upward rend, wi a mean of 0.7.Te period beween July 004 and June 006 is paricularly ineresing, wen α esimaes increase from 0.33 o 0.6. Tis dramaic movemen as some equally dramaic counerpars in e β esimaes. In July 004, e β esimaes decrease from 0.55 o 0.38, and remain low for many mons. Overall, e mean β is 0.68, wic is lower an is full sample counerpar repored in Table 3. Te α esimaes of EGARCH (,) exibi subsanial flucuaions in e full rolling samples, ranging from o 0., wi a mean of Bo e γ and β esimaes exibi similar paerns, wi a mean of 0.3 and 0.4, respecively. Te movemens in e β esimaes are paricularly ineresing, flucuaing dramaically in our rolling samples. Tese variaions explain e low mean of e β esimaes, and reflec difficulies in esimaing e EGARCH model precisely. IV.III Forecass Tis researc produces a dynamic forecas over e January 973 o June 006 sample, o obain a robus and suiable model o capure paen dynamics. Te dynamic forecas period is consruced for e period from Augus 989 o Sepember 006. We examine e acual versus fied values o sow ou-of-sample forecas abiliy by creaing e following ree forecas error saisics: T + = T + = ( yö y ) / (6) yö y (7) Were e forecas sample is j =, i.e. =, and denoes e acual and forecased value in period as y and yö, respecively. Tese measures compare forecass for e same series across differen models; e smaller e error, e beer e forecasing abiliy of a model according o a crierion. Equaion (8) means e Teil inequaliy coefficien always lies beween zero and one, were zero indicaes a perfec fi. Te residual, fied, and acual siuaion is sown in Table 3 and e ree saisics are calculaed in Table 3. No maer wa saisics we coose, EGARCH (,) is e mos suiable volailiy model o capure paen dynamics in Taiwan. V. Conclusion Tis paper presens an overview of paen rends and volailiies in e logarim of paen applicaions from January 973 o June 006. Similarly, e rends and volailiies ave almos analyzed in regisered US paens for e op foreign paening counries in e USA from 975 o 988. We ave summarized e several recen empirical sudies in Table 6. However, variaions in e paen sare in previous empirical sudies do no consider differen paen qualiy in a given paen sysem. We separae oal paen applicaions in Taiwan paen sysems ino ree eerogeneous qualiy paen ypes. Tis work examines e ime-varying naure of rends and volailiies of respecive paen ypes, using monly daa. Tree differen paen ypes exibi an increasing rend. Invenion and new uiliy model paens fail o rejec e null ypoesis of no ARCH effecs. New design paens sow ig and persisen volailiy. Te samples exibi asymmeric effec roug e EGARCH model. Full sample resuls saisfy second and four momen condiions. Te dynamic pas of rolling esimaes provide imporan informaion abou individual observaion impac on model esimaes. Te EGARCH (,) model is e mos suiable volailiy model o cap- ISSN: (p:// Journal of Tecnology Managemen & Innovaion Universidad Albero Hurado, Faculad de Economía y Negocios 79

12 J. Tecnol. Manag. Innov. 009, Volume 4, Issue ure paen applicaion dynamics, based on ou-ofsample forecass. In conclusion, a primary aim of is paper is o presen an economeric analysis of e symmeric and asymmeric volailiy for differen paen qualiy in Taiwan. Tis is a crucial firs sep o measure risk and reurn on inellecual propery. From a policy perspecive, e undersanding of volailiy in paening can enable governmens o anicipae indusry policy in relaion o is new class of emerging ecnologies. Te policy implicaions also can include removal of financial barriers o commercializaion of paens and various forms of assisance o innovaing companies and individuals. References CHAN, R., Marinova, D., McAleer, M. (004) Trends and Volailiies in Foreign Paens Regisered in e USA. Applied Economics, 36, CHAN, R. Marinova, D., McAleer, M. (004) Modelling e Asymmeric Volailiy of Elecronics Paens in e USA, Maemaics and compuers in Simulaion,64, HALL, B. H Innovaion and Diffusion, NBER working paer #0. GRILICHES, Z. (990) Paen Saisics as Economic Indicaor: A Survey, Journal of Eonomic Lieraure, 8, LING, S., Li, W. K. (997) On Fracionally Inegraed Auoregressive Moving-average Models wi Condiional Heerosckedasiciy, Journal of e American Saiscal Associaion, 9, LING, S., McAleer, M. (00a) Necessary and Sufficien Momen Condiions for e GARCH(r,s) Models, Economeric Teory, 8, LING, S., McAleer, M. (00b) Saionary and e Exisence of Momens of a Family of GARCH Processes, Journal of Economerics, 06, LING, S., McAleer, M. (003) Asympoic Teory for a Vecor ARMA-GARCH Model, Economeric Teory, 9, MARINOVA, D. (00) Easern European Paening Aciviies in e USA, Tecnovaion,, MARINOVA, D., McAleer, M. (00) Trends and Volailiy in Japanese Paening in e USA: An Analysis of e Elecronics and Transpor Indusries, Scienomerics, 55, HALL, B. H., Jaffe, A., Trajenberg, M. (00) Te NBER Paen Ciaions Daa File: Lessons, Insigs and Meodological Tools, in A. Jaffe and M. Trajenberg (eds), Paens, Ciaions and Innovaions, Cambridge, MA: Te MIT Press. HALL,B. H., Jaffe, A., Trajenberg, M. (005) Marke Value and Paen Ciaions, Rand Journal of Economics, 36, HOTI, S., McAleer, M. (006) How does Counry Risk Rffec Innovaion? An Applicaion o Foreign Paens Regisered in e USA, Journal of Economic Surveys, 0, GOEL, R. K. (999) Economic Models of Tecnological Cange: Teory and Applicaion, Quorum Books, Wespor, Connecicu, p. 3. MARINOVA, D., McAleer, M. (003) Modelling Trends and Volailiy in Ecological Paens in e USA, Environmenal Modelling and Sofware, 8, MCALEER, M., Can, F., Marinova, D. (007) An Economeric Analysis of Asymmeric Volailiy: Teory and Applicaion o Paens, Journal of Economerics, 39, NELSON D. B. (99) Condiional Heeroscedasiciy in Asse Reurns: A New Approac, Economerica, 59, PATEL, P., Pavi, K. (995) Divergence in Tecnological Developmen among Counries and Firms, in Tecnical Cange and e World Economy: Convergence and Divergence in Tecnology Sraegies (Ed.) J. Hagedoorn, Edward Elgar, Alderso, ISSN: (p:// Journal of Tecnology Managemen & Innovaion Universidad Albero Hurado, Faculad de Economía y Negocios 80

13 J. Tecnol. Manag. Innov. 009, Volume 4, Issue PAVITT, K. (998) Uses and Abuses of Paen Saisics, in Handbook of Quaniaive Sudies of Science and Tecnology (Ed.) A. F. J. van Raan, Elsevier, Amserdam, SHEPHARD, N. (996) Saisical Aspecs of ARCH and Socasic Volailiy, in: O. E. Barndorff-Nielsen, D. R. Cox, C. V. Hinkley (Eds.), Saisical Models in Economerics, Finance and Oer Fields, Capman and Hall, London, -67. of Indusrial Economics in Naional Cenral Universiy. Her researc ineress include paen and innovaion managemen, R&D invesmen, and inellecual propery rigs. Biograpy Wen-Ceng Lu received is MS degree a Naional Taiwan Universiy wi a major in Financial Economics and P.D degree in Naional Cenral Universiy wi a major in Indusrial Economics. He is an assisan professor a e Deparmen of Economics, Ming Cuan Universiy. His researc ineress include knowledge managemen, produciviy, and applied economerics. Jong-Rong Cen is a professor a graduae Insiue of Indusrial Economics in Naional Cenral Universiy, Taiwan. His researc ineress include ecnology managemen, indusrial economics, and produciviy. Dr. Cen as publised numerous aricles in, o name a few, Researc Policy, Applied Economics, and Journal of e Japanese and Inernaional Economies. I-Hsuan Tung is a P.D. candidae a graduae Insiue of Indusrial Economics in Naional Cenral Universiy, Taiwan. Se is a researc assisan in graduae Insiue ISSN: (p:// Journal of Tecnology Managemen & Innovaion Universidad Albero Hurado, Faculad de Economía y Negocios 8