SPACE DEBRIS. Hazard Evaluation and Mitigation. Edited by. Nickolay N. Smirnov. Moscow M.V. Lomonosov State University, Moscow, Russia

Transcription

1 SPACE DEBRIS Hazard Evaluation and Mitigation Edited by Nickolay N. Smirnov Moscow M.V. Lomonosov State University, Moscow, Russia London and New York

2 CONTENTS Preface Contributors ix xi Chapter 1: Orbital Debris Hazards Assessment and Mitigation Strategies 1 V.A. Chobotov 1.1. Space Debris Environment Introduction Space Debris Environment: Low Earth Orbit (LEO) 2 a) Debris Measurements 3 b) Future Debris Population Estimates Space Debris Environment: Geosynchronous Orbit (GEO) Collision Hazards Collision Probability 9 a) Poisson Distribution 10 b) Distance of Closest Approach 10 c) Weibull Distribution Breakup Modeling 14 a) Debris Cloud Evolution Modeling Mitigation Strategies Inter-Agency/International Activities Inter-Agency Activities International Activities 21 a) The International Academy of Astronautics (IAA) 21 b) The Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC) 22 c) United Nations (UN) Summary and Conclusions 23 Chapter 2: European Space Agency Activities on Orbital Debris 25 W. Fluty 2.1. Introduction Space Debris Research Activities The Terrestrial Meteoroid and Debris Environment Risk Analysis Debris Protection and Mitigation 29

3 vi CONTENTS 2.3. Harmonization in Europe and International Cooperation Conclusions 33 Chapter 3: Mathematical Model for Space Debris Evolution, Production and Self-Production 35 N.N. Smirnov 3.1. Introduction Mathematical Model Marginal Cases Analysis Some Results of Numerical Investigations Conclusions 53 Chapter 4: The Solution of Applied Problems Using the Space Debris Prediction and Analysis Model 55 A.I. Nazarenko 4.1. Basic Principles of the Model Construction. The Data on New Yearly Formed Objects Introduction Approach Principles of the Space Debris Environment Forecast The Data on New Yearly Formed Objects Distribution of Parameters of New-Formed Objects General Characteristics of SD Software Current Space Debris Environment Containing Particles Larger than 0.1 cm Introduction Spatial Density Distribution Construction Technique Velocity Distribution Construction Technique Current Spatial Density Distribution Collisions of Spacecrafts with Debris Particles Assessment A Brief Review of the Used Methods Development of the Technique for Collision Probability Evaluation Characteristics of the Relative Flux of SOs The Probability of Mutual Collisions for a Group of Objects The Account of Shape and Orientation of Typical Spacecraft Modules Aerodynamic Analogy Determining the Coefficient C N for Typical SC Structure Components Examples of Collision Probability Determination Forecast of Space Debris Environment General Characteristics of the Forecasting Algorithm Initial Environment and Conditions of the Forecast Example of a Debris Environment Forecast 110

4 CONTENTS vii Chapter 5: Geostationary Orbit Pollution and Its Long-Term Evolution 113 T. Yasaka 5.1. Objects Accumulation and Collisions Hazard in GEO Objects Accumulation in GEO Collision Hazard Breakup Model Momentum and Energy Relations Velocity Distribution Mass Distribution Verification of Assumptions Debris Cloud Evolution Objects Number Evolution Modeling Evolution Model Parameters and Simulation Results Necessary Preventive Measures Graveyard Orbit Explosions Control Other Debris Sources Necessary Measures 130 Chapter 6: Area/Mass and Mass Distributions of Orbital Debris 133 P.D. Anz-Meador and A.E. Potter 6.1. Background A Case in Point: The Fragmentation of Cosmos Area-to-Mass Ratio from Orbital Decay Area-to-Mass Ratio for Debris from Laboratory Tests Mass Distributions for Orbital Debris Objects Conclusions and Implications Acknowledgement 148 Chapter 7: Space Debris Production in Different Types of Orbital Breakups 149 N.N. Smirnov, V.F. Nikitin and A.B. Kiselev 7.1. Introduction Physical Models of Breakup Processes The Model for the Energy Release 152 a) Combustion of Polydispersed Sprays in Weightlessness 152 b) Diffusive Combustion of Hypergolic Propellants in Accidental Mixing of Components on Perforation of the Common Bulkhead 153 c) Detonation of the Mixture in Propellant Tanks The Model for the Dynamical Deforming of Walls Fragmentation Models for Thin-Walled Containments 169

5 viii CONTENTS Fragmentations in Collisions of Debris Particles 173 a) Mean Velocities and Energies of Fragments 173 b) Number of Fragments 174 c) The Minimal Mass of Fragments 175 d) Relative Velocities of Fragments Fragmentation of Shells in Uniform Internal Loading Breakups Caused by Non-uniform Internal Loading Fragmentations Caused by Hypervelocity Collisions of Debris Particles with Pressurized Vessels A Concept for Shield Design Conclusions 192 Annex: Mathematical Models for Dynamics of Multiphase Media and Deformable Structures 193 N.N. Smirnov, A.B. Kiselev and V.F. Nikitin A.I. Turbulent Flows of Multiphase Polydispersed Chemically Reacting Mixtures 193 A Mathematical Model for the Gas Phase 194 A Dispersed Phase Modeling 197 A Fluxes from Model Particles and their Recalculation into Gas Phase Equations Source Terms 205 A Numerical Modeling Techniques 206 A Nomenclature 208 A.2. Mathematical Model for Dynamical Deforming and Breakup of Thin-Walled Elastoviscoplastic Shell 211 References 215 Index 227