The Case for Anthropogenic Warming
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1 Richard McGehee Seminar on the Mathematics of Climate Change School of Mathematics September 9, 8 The USA in the Ice Free Earth Computer Simulation, Clarence Lehman, Univ. Mn. 6 No ice fishing in Minnesota No polar bears in the Arctic No ice in Antarctica No Florida The Modern Ice Free Earth Computer Simulation, Clarence Lehman, Univ. Mn. 6 Sea level rises 63 meters. 1
2 Public Perception 7 Polar Sea Ice National Journal, Feb 3, 7 Press Release, 1 October 7, National Snow and Ice Data Center Polar Sea Ice Global Mean Temperature Press Release, 1 October 7, National Snow and Ice Data Center Technical Summary, IPCC AR, p.37 Northern Hemisphere Data Lake Vostok
3 Lake Vostok Core Samples Photographs copyright Reto Stöckli, NASA GSFC Antarctic Temperature Data Antarctic Temperature Data kiloyear bp delta deg C temperature year Petit, et al, Nature 399 (June ), pp.9-36 Petit, et al, Nature 399 (June ), pp.9-36 Hansen, et al, 8, p. 7 3
4 Heat Balance T = ks where T = surface temperature (ºK) S = solar influx (W/m ) k = constant depending on reflectivity of the surface, emissivity of the surface, and the Stefan-Boltzmann constant. For the current value of k, T = 55 K = 18 C = F Why isn t the Earth a Snowball? Why isn t the Earth a Snowball? The Greenhouse Effect! Joseph Fourier, Mémoires de l'académie des Sciences de l'institut de France, t. vii Svante Arrhenius, "On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air upon the Temperature of the Ground," Philosophical Magazine and Journal of Science (Fifth Series) 1, pp , C.Lorius, The ice-core record: climate sensitivity and future greenhouse warming, Nature 37 (199), pp Heat Balance Radiative Forcing by Greenhouse Gases Historical Overview of Climate Change Science, IPCC AR, p.96 Technical Summary, IPCC AR, p.5 Greenhouse Gases Vostok Data Atmospheric CO gigatons 3 1 Technical Summary, IPCC AR, p year ( = )
5 8 Vostok Data + Recent History Atmospheric CO Vostok Data CO (ppm) gigatons Current conditions are well outside the range recorded in the ice core data. temperature Ice Core Today year (present = ) -1 Vostok Data CO (ppm) temperature 5-5 Ice Core trend imbalance The Short-Term Carbon Cycle Hansen, et al, 8, p. 7 Couplings Between Changes in theclimate System and Biogeochemistry, IPCC AR, p
6 The Earth s Carbon Cycle Sigman & Boyle, Nature 7 (), p.86 Carbon isotope ratios and atmospheric oxygen depletion indicate that the increase in atmospheric CO comes from burning fossil fuels. Models with and without t human activity. Changes in Atmospheric Constituents and in Radiative Forcing, IPCC AR, Chap., p pdf Understanding and Attributing Climate Change, IPCC AR, Chap. 9, p.68 pdf IPCC Predictions Global Climate Projections, IPCC AR, p
7 Surface Temperature Predictions Summary Yes, but so far not much. Solar forcing plus the greenhouse effect. Sure looks like it. So far, not big. But it could become huge. Global Climate Projections, IPCC AR, p
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