G.F. Dargush, Y. Hu, S. Dogruel, G. Apostolakis University at Buffalo MCEER Annual Meeting Washington, DC June 29, 2006

Transcription

1 Simulaion-based Muli-hazard Decision Suppor G.F. Dargush, Y. Hu, S. Dogruel, G. Aposolakis Universiy a Buffalo MCEER Annual Meeing Washingon, DC June 29, 2006

2 Simulaion-based Muli-hazard Decision Suppor Inroducion Aseismic Design and Rerofi Aseismic Decision Suppor Muli-hazard Decision Suppor Summary

3 Simulaion-based Muli-hazard Decision Suppor Overall Objecive Enhance communiy resilience o exreme evens Characerisics Mulidisciplinary Uncerainy, ambiguiy and risk Spaial and emporal dimensions Complex Problems Finie resources Unlimied possibiliies Robus Soluions

4 Simulaion-based Muli-hazard Decision Suppor Research Objecive Develop a compuaional decision suppor framework for criical infrasrucure and faciliies ha Provides flexibiliy o include a broad range of models and simulaion sofware Incorporaes boh engineering and socioechnical aspecs Allows consideraion of a variey of exreme evens Seeks robus soluions o complex problems Focus iniially on criical care faciliies and healhcare neworks under seismic hazards

5 Aseismic Srucural Design and Rerofi Design A Uiliy of Design A U A (,a,$, ) Resilience Meric

6 Aseismic Srucural Design and Rerofi Design A U A (,a,$, ) Design B U B (,a,$, )

7 Aseismic Srucural Design and Rerofi Difficulies Many poenial design soluions exis How does one deermine Designs A and B? Simulaion-based Design Define uiliy funcion U Idenify space of possible design soluions S Idenify/develop appropriae simulaion algorihms o evaluae U for all possible design soluions in S Uilize sysemaic mehod o find robus designs Geneic Algorihms (Holland, 1975)

8 Evoluionary Aseismic Design and Rerofi Daabase d,a d,a d,a U1 d,a d,a d,a U2 d,a d,a d,a UN Iniialize Designs Creae Srucural Models Realize Geophysical Environmen Evaluae Srucural Response Esimae Uiliy Define New Designs

9 Evoluionary Aseismic Design and Rerofi Evoluionary Aseismic Design and Rerofi Feaures Passive damper opions include boh rae-independen (meallic) and rae-dependen (viscous and viscoelasic) devices Nonlinear models for base srucure and passive elemens using lumped parameer represenaions Uncerain seismic environmen or fixed ensemble of ground moions Transien dynamic analysis o evaluae seismic response Srucural finess (or uiliy) depends upon: Saisfacory levels for inersory drif and oal acceleraion Performance of non-srucural componens Damper cos Risk aversion index

10 Evoluionary Aseismic Design and Rerofi Evoluionary Aseismic Design and Rerofi Examples

11 Evoluionary Aseismic Design and Rerofi Evoluionary Aseismic Design and Rerofi Examples For more deails, please see poser by Seda Dogruel

12 Healhcare Organizaions (Peak-Alesch, 2004) Exisence of robus engineering soluions is no sufficien Rerofi seleced only if criical care organizaion: Believes ha a soluion exiss o reduce he risk Believes ha i is in is bes ineres o ac Finds a soluion compaible wih is mission Has he capaciy o implemen he soluion Perceives he seismic risk Temporal dimension of decision-making process also is imporan Can simulaions provide useful informaion o his decisionmaking process? Wha models would be appropriae?

13 Aseismic Decision Suppor Simulaion-based Approach Define uiliy funcion U for organizaion Idenify space of possible policy ses S Idenify/develop appropriae simulaion algorihms o evaluae U for all possible policy ses in S Uilize geneic algorihm o evolve robus policy ses Evoluionary Aseismic Decision Suppor

14 Evoluionary Aseismic Decision Suppor Criical Care Formulaion Uiliy Funcion Building & equipmen; Moneary asses Paiens served Accumulaed damage; Paien-days los Resilience Meric Decision Space Policy 1: Seismic Rerofi Evaluaion frequency, Rerofi crieria, Rerofi level Policy 2: Building & Equipmen Invesmen Invesmen coefficien, B/P arge raio, Moneary asse hreshold Policy 3: Faciliy Saus Open/close decision, Alernaive funcion

15 Evoluionary Aseismic Decision Suppor Criical Care Formulaion Single Realizaion over Time Organizaional Model RL Rerofi Level L Geophysical Model E1 Life Earhquake Model Srucural Model Damage Model

16 Organizaional Model of Hospials Iniial Formulaion ~ Employee Paions Muiiplier Employee Paiens Raio Communiy Aracive Muliplier Aracive for Paiens Muliplier Aracive for Employee Muliplier Paiens Paiens Arrival Paiens ~ B&E Muliplier Buildings & Equip B&E per Employee B&E Los ~ Salary Muliplier Building&Equipmen Employee Arrival Employee Employees Average Salary Paiens Daparure B&E Rae Rae Employee Deparure Average Charge ~ Rerofi Muliplier Run Income Moneary Asses Disaser Muliplier Balance of he Hospial Salary rae CRRR Rerofi BRRR ~ Conens Repair ~ and Replacemen Cos Rae Building Repair and Replacemen cos rae Sysem Dynamics Model ~ Loss of funcion ime Building damage sae

17 Organizaional Model of Hospials Iniial Formulaion Sysem Dynamics (Forreser, 1961, 1969) Populaion Dynamics (May, 1973) Primary Variables: Paiens (P) Employees (E) Buildings & Equipmen (B) Moneary Asses (M) Key Raios: E/P B/P d X = f (X, ) d Parameer esimaion based upon OSHPD daabase

18 Organizaional Model of Hospials Iniial Formulaion For more deails, please see poser by Yufeng Hu

19 Spaial Disribuion of Hospials Regional Policy Formulaion Public Privae No-for-profi

20 Evoluionary Aseismic Decision Suppor Regional Policy Formulaion Uiliy Funcion Paiens served; Economic aciviy Accumulaed damage; Paien-days los Resilience Meric Decision Space Policy 0: No rerofi regulaion Policy 1: Mandaed rerofi wo/financial suppor Policy 2: Mandaed rerofi w/financial suppor... Policy n: Opional rerofi w/incenives Z phased in wih ime schedule X

21 Evoluionary Aseismic Decision Suppor Regional Policy Formulaion Daabase Pol-xy X() X() X() U1 Pol-xx Pol-ab X() X() X() U2 Pol-rp Pol-pq X() X() X() UN Pol-aq Iniialize Policy Ses Define Regional Policies Realize Socioechnical Environmen Evaluae Regional Response Esimae Regional Uiliy Define New Policy Ses

22 Muli-hazard Aseismic Decision Suppor Single Realizaion over Time Organizaional Model RL Rerofi W1 Geophysical Model E1 P1 Life Meeorological Model Exreme Evens: Earhquake Model Wind Model Sociopoliical Model [e.g., SB1953]

23 Evoluionary Proecive Sysem Design (Aref e al.) Elasodynamic Wave Propagaion via Boundary Elemen Mehod

24 Evoluionary Proecive Sysem Design (Aref e al.) Elasodynamic Wave Propagaion Geneic algorihm o selec maerial layers

25 Simulaion-based Muli-hazard Decision Suppor Summary Overall Approach Define uiliy funcion U Idenify space of possible soluions S Idenify/develop appropriae simulaion algorihms o evaluae U for all possible soluions in S Uilize geneic algorihms o evolve robus soluions

26 Simulaion-based Muli-hazard Decision Suppor Summary Framework is flexible Applicable o a broad range of exreme even design and decision processes Exendable o incorporae more advanced models and analysis ools Approach is encouraging Consisenly produces robus aseismic srucural designs in eiher uncerain or fixed environmens Holds promise o provide guidance in he overall socioechnical decision-making process Compuaional requiremens are manageable

27 Simulaion-based Muli-hazard Decision Suppor Thank you!