Research in Induced Seismicity

Transcription

1 Research in Induced Seismicity Grant Bromhal, NETL GWPC Annual UIC Meeting January

2 NAS Study on Induced Seismicity Three major findings emerged from the study: hydraulic fracturing does not pose a high risk waste water disposal does pose some risk, but frequency of known events is low CCS may have potential for inducing seismic events, but much is unknown. Methodologies can be developed for quantitative, probabilistic hazard assessments of induced seismicity risk. Need for federal agencies to coordinate on induced seismicity response. 2

3 Outline Intro to NRAP and quantitative methods for predicting induced seismicity risks Induced Seismicity and Fault Leakage Federal Agency Cooperation 3

4 Outline Intro to NRAP and quantitative methods for predicting induced seismicity risks Induced Seismicity and Fault Leakage Federal Agency Cooperation 4

5 National Risk Assessment Partnership Technical Team Wade, LLC Stakeholder Group 5

6 Approach to quantifying system performance is to use integrated assessment models (IAMs) to couple behavior of each component. A. Divide system into discrete components Potential Leakage Impacts (Atmosphere; Groundwater) Potential Ground-Motion Impacts (Ground Acceleration) fluid propagation seismic-wave propagation Release/Transport of Fluids fluid propagation Reservoir (plume/pressure evolution) Slip along a Fault Plane stress/pressure propagation Reservoir (plume/pressure evolution) 6

7 NRAP Approach to Quantifying System Performance A. Divide system into discrete components Energy Data Exchange (EDX) IAM 7 B. Develop detailed component models that are validated against lab/field data C. Develop reducedorder models (ROMs) that rapidly reproduce component model predictions E. Develop strategic monitoring protocols that allow verification of predicted system performance Data from RCSPs etc. calibrate New Data calibrate from NRAP NRAP Integrated Assessment (System) Models Potential Receptors or Impacted Media Release and Transport Storage Reservoir D. Link ROMs via integrated assessment models (IAMs) to predict system performance & risk; calibrate using lab/field data from NRAP and other sources

8 Elements of Traditional Probabilistic Seismic Hazards Assessment Identify potential earthquake sources (faults). Characterize the rates at which earthquakes of various magnitudes are expected to occur Characterize the distribution of source-to-site distances for potential earthquakes. Predict the distribution of ground motion intensity as a function of earthquake magnitude, distance, etc. Combine uncertainties in earthquake size, location and ground motion intensity, using the total probability theorem. From J.W. Baker (2008) 8

9 Adapting PSHA for induced seismicity Global ground motion prediction relations are very poorly constrained at short distances and small magnitudes Foxall et al (2012), Annual CCUS 9

10 Integrated Assessment Model for PSHA RSQSim 1 simulates tectonic earthquakes and slow slip events on faults, adapted to use time-dependent pore pressure changes EMPSYN calculates ground accelerations and velocities SIMRISK calculates a frequency-magnitude distribution 1 Dieterich and Richards-Dinger,

11 Will the pressure front influence existing faults? CO 2 Area of Review Fault Injection well Pressure AoR Region of interest for IS will depend on pore pressure changes and in situ stresses 11 - EPA Proposed Rule, 2008

12 Will injection/production affect the frequencymagnitude relationship? N(>m)/yr 10? Magnitude Gutenberg-Richter relationship: log N(>m) = a bm 12 Simplified model relationship

13 Microseismic monitoring may help understand frequency-magnitude relationships. Side View Top View SPE

14 Will fault permeability be affected? Experimental work aimed at assessing changes to fault permeability Simulation work aimed at predicting rate (if any) of CO 2 to reach USDW 14

15 NRAP Induced Seismicity Capabilities Development Plan Generation 1 (July 2012) IAM for Probabilistic Seismic Hazards Assessment for single fault Generation 2 IAM for PSHA (Spring 2013) Multiple faults Multiple time periods Calculation of nuisance risk Parameter sensitivity calculations Generation 3 IAM for PHSA and risk Higher frequencies in ground motion Full risk Ties to fault leakage risk 15

16 Outline Intro to NRAP and quantitative methods for predicting induced seismicity risks Induced Seismicity and Fault Leakage Lessons from CCS Best Practice Manuals Federal Agency Cooperation 16

17 Interagency Collaboration DOE, USGS, EPA have had a recent discussion on unconventional resource R&D Induced seismicity was identified as an area for collaboration DOE and USGS have ongoing efforts in natural and induced seismic hazards analysis Main EPA interest is in regulation; strong interest in applying research results Proposed annual collaborative meetings between agencies and with other players to assess gaps/needs 17

18 Thank You! Questions? 18