Paleoclimate Modeling intercomparison Project
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1 Paleoclimate Modeling intercomparison Project Supported by WCRP/CLIVAR/WGCM and IGBP/PAGES SC : P. Braconnot (France); S: Harrison (UK), S. Joussaume (F), B. Otto-Bliesner (US), A. Abe-Ouchi, (Japan), A. Haywood, P. Valdes, G.Ramstein, K. Taylor, P. Bartlein, M. Kucera, J. Jungclaus Objectives: Understand mechanisms of past climate change Evaluate roles of feedbacks from the different climate subsystems (atmosphere, ocean, land-surface, sea-ice ) Evaluate the ability of climate models to simulate a climate different from that of today PMIP3 in CMIP5 CMIP5 : long term simulations Taylor et al Other periods Warm climates, abrupt events, transients.
2 Status of simulations MH 10 models (5 Carbon cycle); LGM 8 models (2 CC), LM 8 (2 CC)
3 Discussed last year WGCM15 Data distribution
4 Database now CMIP5 PMIP3 Addition fields computed at LSCE Seasonal cycles and variance Bioclimatic variables (not yet available ) Copy subset of data Difficulties: osupport for groups not in CMIP5 olink with the national ESG nodes for groups not in CMIP5 Access through ESG Access through PRODIGUER Database : Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, LSCE/IPSL + thanks to the IPSL groupe (Sébastien Denvil) for the infrastructure
5 Workshop and conferences Connection with sessions in different conferences WCRP-OSP (October 2012)., EGU ( 2012), WCRP-OSP (October 2012), CMIP5 (March 2012). Workshops (support from WCRP, PAGES, PALCOM) PCMIP (carbon): November 2011, Blue Montaine, Australia Benchmarcking, February 2011, Australia PAGES/CLIVAR past/future, March 2012, Hawai, USA COMPARE «ocean model-data»(pmip/margo), Bremen, March 2012 PMIP meeting : 6-11 May 2012, Crewe, UK EOS paper (Crucifix et al. ) Newsletter PAGES (Hill et al. In preparation) Special issue of climate of the past (not only CMIP5 but PMIP3 activity in general )
6 Climate of the Past- Special Issue Progress in paleoclimate modelling Editor(s): M. Kageyama, C. Brierley, M. Crucifix, J. C. Hargreaves, A. Paul, and G. Ramstein Manuscript submitted and in discussion in CPD Large-scale features of Pliocene climate: results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project A. M. Haywood, D. J. Hill, A. M. Dolan, B. Otto-Bliesner, F. Bragg, W.-L. Chan, M. A. Chandler, C. Contoux, A. Jost, Y. Kamae, G. Lohmann, D. J. Lunt, A. Abe-Ouchi, S. J. Pickering, G. Ramstein, N. A. Rosenbloom, L. Sohl, C. Stepanek, Q. Yan, H. Ueda, and Z. Zhang The East Asian summer monsoon at mid-holocene: results from PMIP3 simulations W. Zheng, B. Wu, J. He, and Y. Yu Climate and African precipitation changes in the mid-holocene simulated using an Earth System Model MIROC-ESM R. Ohgaito, T. Sueyoshi, A. Abe-Ouchi, T. Hajima, S. Watanabe, H.-J. Kim, A. Yamamoto, and M. Kawamiya Arctic sea ice in the mid-holocene Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project 2 simulations M. Berger, J. Brandefelt, and J. Nilsson Skill and reliability of climate model ensembles at the Last Glacial Maximum and mid Holocene J. C. Hargreaves, J. D. Annan, R. Ohgaito, A. Paul, and A. Abe-Ouchi A multi-model assessment of last interglacial temperatures D. J. Lunt, A. Abe-Ouchi, P. Bakker, A. Berger, P. Braconnot, S. Charbit, N. Fischer, N. Herold, J. H. Jungclaus, V. C. Khon, U. Krebs-Kanzow, G. Lohmann, B. Otto-Bliesner, W. Park, M. Pfeiffer, M. Prange, R. Rachmayani, H. Renssen, N. Rosenbloom, B. Schneider, E. J. Stone, K. Takahashi, W. Wei, and Q. Yin Southern westerlies in LGM and future (RCP4.5) climates Y. Chavaillaz, F. Codron, and M. Kageyama Proxy benchmarks for intercomparison of 8.2 ka simulations C. Morrill, D. M. Anderson, B. A. Bauer, R. Buckner, E. P. Gille, W. S. Gross, M. Hartman, and A. Shah
7 Climatic impacts of fresh water hosing under Last Glacial Maximum conditions: a multimodel study M. Kageyama, U. Merkel, B. Otto-Bliesner, M. Prange, A. Abe-Ouchi, G. Lohmann, D. M. Roche, J. Singarayer, D. Swingedouw, and X. Zhang Model sensitivity to North Atlantic freshwater forcing at 8.2 ka C. Morrill, A. N. LeGrande, H. Renssen, P. Bakker, and B. L. Otto-Bliesner Clim. Past Discuss., 8, , 2012 Temperature response to external forcing in simulations and reconstructions of the last millennium L. Fernández-Donado, J. F. González-Rouco, C. C. Raible, C. M. Ammann, D. Barriopedro, E. García-Bustamante, J. H. Jungclaus, S. J. Lorenz, J. Luterbacher, S. J. Phipps, J. Servonnat, D. Swingedouw, S. F. B. Tett, S. Wagner, P. Yiou, and E. Zorita Historical and idealized climate model experiments: an EMIC intercomparison M. Eby, A. J. Weaver, K. Alexander, K. Zickfeld, A. Abe-Ouchi, A. A. Cimatoribus, E. Crespin, S. S. Drijfhout, N. R. Edwards, A. V. Eliseev, G. Feulner, T. Fichefet, C. E. Forest, H. Goosse, P. B. Holden, F. Joos, M. Kawamiya, D. Kicklighter, H. Kienert, K. Matsumoto, I. I. Mokhov, E. Monier, S. M. Olsen, J. O. P. Pedersen, M. Perrette, G. Philippon-Berthier, A. Ridgwell, A. Schlosser, T. Schneider von Deimling, G. Shaffer, R. S. Smith, R. Spahni, A. P. Sokolov, M. Steinacher, K. Tachiiri, K. Tokos, M. Yoshimori, N. Zeng, and F. Zhao Last interglacial temperature evolution a model inter-comparison P. Bakker, E. J. Stone, S. Charbit, M. Gröger, U. Krebs-Kanzow, S. P. Ritz, V. Varma, S. Khon, D. J. Lunt, U. Mikolajewicz, M. Prange, H. Renssen, B. Schneider, and M. Schulz
8 Coordination of a suite of papers and newsletters Meeting outputs : EOS, PAGES PMIP boundary conditions Schmidt et al., GMD 2011, 2012: Last Millennium Abe-Ouchi et al., GMD, still in progress : LGM ice sheet PMIP2 synthesis and perspectives : Braconnot et al., NCC 2012 : Evaluation of climate models using palaeoclimatic data, also a reference for LGM and MH PMIP3 boundary conditions Several coordinated papers on the different periods of PMIP (submitted). Pliomip group very active, Eemian, sensitivity to fresh water fluxes in the Atlantic.
9 Also First intercomparison of LM simulations (Gonzales-Roucou et al. Clivar newsletter + paper submitted) Analyse of the carbon cycle in LM simulations (PCMIP group) Benchmarking paper for LGM and MH (Harrison et al. Submitted) Working group to reassess LGM tropical SST and better use the information from the different proxy records for model evaluation (use of biogeochemical and foram models) and estimates of climate sensitivity. Comparison of Emien simulations ( ka) for mid-high latitude warming and link with ice-sheet and sea-level Pliomip group very active and several papers published
10 Key focusses for CMIP5 and across PMIP periods Benchmaking (mainly MH and LGM and / future) Climate sensitivity and polar amplification Uncertainties in boundary conditions Ocean circulation (THC and fresh water fluxes) Climate variability
11 «Benchmarking» Figure from Harrison et al, submitted Question about reliability of ensemble (ex Hargreaves and Annan, submitted), the best way to connect it to model feedbacks what the model do for PI or future climates, regional features.. )
12 Climate forcing : boundary condition Estimation of albedo effect on SW radiation Taylor et al Ensemble mean of PMIP2 estimates : albedo ice-sheet and change in land-sea mask PMIP2 PMIP3 Braconnot et al. NCC, 2012
13 Ocean overturning PMIP2 PMIP3 Otto-Bliesner et al No progess : Questions / closure of the fresh water fluxes, mis representation of brine rejection, model resolution
14 Land-sea contrasts and polar amplification in past and future climates Masa Kageyama et al Last Glacial Maximum main forcings Ice-sheets Greenhouse gases CO2: 185 ppm, CH4:350 ppb LGM climate reconstructions Land data (pollen and plant macrofossils): Bartlein et al, Clim Dynam 2011 Ocean data (multi proxy): MARGO, NGS 2009 Ice-core data: Masson-Delmotte et al pers. comm Relationships between LGM vs higher CO2 climates? Are the large scale relationships stable? Can we evaluate them from paleodata? Can we relate LGM global cooling to Equilibrium climate sensitivity (CO2)? Tropics N. Atlantic/Europe Example: Land sea contrasts ΔT over land ΔT over oceans ΔT over land ΔT over oceans Note: all model averages calculated from grid points where LGM data is available
15 New working group on climate variability EX last millennium proxy database Improve existing syntheses by merging several sources (published and unpublished data) Connect variations over the ocean and tropical lands Develop appropriate methodologies to compare model results with these syntheses Connection with US Clivar group on ENSO diversity Emile Geay et al, in prep 4 yr. Newsletter ENSO past/present/future planned for the end of 2012 (PAGES, eds: P. Braconnot, S. Harrison and C. Brierley) EX Mid Holocene synthesis from bibliography and ENSO reduc>on (%) as simulated by 7 models (PMIP2) Braconnot et al.( 2012), Zheng et al. (2008)
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