Similarities and differences in the past, presen and future monsoon

Transcription

1 CLIVAR/Asian-Australian Monsoon Panel (AAMP13); Macao, China, 26 October 2013 Similarities and differences in the past, presen and future monsoon Hiroaki UEDA (University of Tsukuba, Japan) 15 minutes talk Self-introduction 1 piece Future projection 6 piece Paleoclimate modeling Formation of the monsoon 4 piece 5 piece TOGA-COARE (1992; Manus Island, New Guinea)

2 Hiroaki UEDA C.V : Ph. of Tsukuba (Yasunari) : Meteorological Research Institute (2008 : Visiting 2002-present of Tsukuba (Prof., 2012~) Climate laboratory(current and alumnus) Research Interests (i) Formation and feedbacks in the monsoon (ii) Future projection (- CMIP) (iii) Paleoclimate modeling (-PMIP) with proxy Domestic projects (i) Evaluation of CMIP3&5 (Ministry of the Environment) (ii) Risk Information on Climate Change (Ministry of Education) Contribution to Society Associate Editor; Journal of Climate, 2009~ Award Yamamoto-Shouno medal for discovery and elucidation of convection jump

3 Wind-Precipitation Paradox in CMIP3 Monsoon rain JJA Multi-model ensemble Rain, winds (future minus present) increase weaker westerly Ueda et al. (2006; GRL) Monsoon rainfall is projected to increase while the low-level westerlies will be weakened

4 Anomalous Tropical Warming temperature Thickness (500~200hPa) Future Warmed atmosphere Anomalous warming Less warming southward positive anomaly condensation heating + Anomalous upper tropospheric warming in the Indian Ocean cause to decrease in MTG evaporation - consistent with the attenuated circulation Eq Indian Ocean Tibet/Eurasia Ueda (2012, Climate system study)

5 Comparison between CMIP3 and CMIP5 CMIP3 CMIP5 Rain, winds (MME, Future) Ogata, Ueda, Hayasaki et al.(submitted) In the CMIP5, the monsoon flows in the tropical Indian Ocean are projected to decrease, however. outside of the tropical Indian Ocean, enhanced monsoon westerlies and weakened trade winds newly emerge.

6 Constrains on the Hydrological Cycle Total Thermodynamic Effect Dynamic Allen and Ingram (2002, Nature) Thermodynami c Emori and Brown (2005; GRL) Precip.

7 Warming in the upper Troposphere Discrepancies in the upper troposphere [i] Satellite derived air temperature and Models show difference (Fu, Manabe, Johanson, 2011; GRL) [ii] Models exceeds that observed by radiosondes (Seidel et al., 2012; GRL) - Reduction of the model bias Prescribing observed SST in AMIP models show good perform. (Mitchell et al., 2013; GRL) - Formation processes of SST are still ongoing issues Top-down warming mechanism in SST (Xiang et al. 2013, CD; Kamae and Watanabe 2012, CD)

8 Anomalous warming in the upper tropsphere Observations versus Models satellites models Fu, Manabe, Johanson (2011, GRL) Historical runs of the CMIP5 show anomalous warming than satellites Seidel et al., 2012(GRL) Warming trend in the models is greater than radiosondes

9 Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project PMIP targets 4 periods to understand inherent process in the climate variations 1 3 glacial-interglacial cycle Lisiecki and Raymo (2005) 2 4 3Ma(Pliocene) LGM: Last Glacial Maximum 6ka~ Hypsitherml

10 AO-GCM Experiment in LGM (21ka) Continental cooling due to permanent NH ice sheet is equivalent to decrees of air temperature in the tropics - producing small changes in the MTG - almost the same intensity of ASM T (LGM minus present) Monsoon in warm/cold climate do not exhibit simple mirror image Ueda et al. (2011, Clim. Dyn.)

11 Mid-Pliocene (3Ma) SST Anomaly (relative to present) Rain and χ200 Anomaly (relative to present) Japan PRISM3 decrease rainfall increase Reconstructed SST from proxy data shows remarkable warming in the Atlantic, especially in the higher latitudes while the anomalies are obscure in the tropics. Monsoonal rainfall is much suppressed, while African monsoon expands poleward ( green Sahel?) => Implicating reversed monsoon-desert mechanism Kamae, Ueda, Kitoh (2011, Clim. Dyn.)

12 Simulated Hypsitherml (6 ka) Climate 12 AO-models Tsfc 6 ka minus 0 ka JJAS Precip 6 ka minus 0 ka JJAS Braconnot et al. (2007; CP) Tsfc was colder than the present in the tropics Green Sahel? and suppressed monsoon Can we say Hypsitherml was warm period? Was the monsoon really strong? 12

13 Stepwise seasonal Evolution Mid-May:The First transition IND JPN Mid-June:ITCZ & Baiu IND JPN 60E 120E E Mid-July: Convection Jump & Baiu Termination IND JPN 150E Rainfall Ueda, Ohba, Xie (2009, JCLIM)

14 Physical Process of the Seasonal March Ueda (2012; Climate System Study)

15 GCM runs with Piecewise Constant SST (PCS) The advantage of PCS method is to evaluate contribution rate of SST and solar radiation to the total feedback Ueda, Ohba, Xie (2009, JCLIM)

16 Conventional Perpetual Experiments Perpetual SST experiment Perpetual insolation experiment 5/1 6/1 Perpetual SST onset 5/1 6/1 Perpetual insolation onset Underestimate for cloud-shielding effect After the enhancement of convection Underestimate for the negative ocean feedback Conventional perpetual runs cannot completely evaluate effect of SST and solar radiation. 16

17 Contribution rate of SST and Insolation Enhanced Rain

18 Climate system study Global monsoon perspective by H. UEDA, Tsukuba University Press (2012) 235 pp. (3,000 Yen USD 30) English version will appear March 2014

19 CLIVAR/Asian-Australian Monsoon Panel (AAMP13); Macao, China, 26 October 2013 Similarities and differences in the past, presen and future monsoon Hiroaki UEDA (University of Tsukuba, Japan) 15 minutes talk Self-introduction 1 piece Future projection 6 piece Paleoclimate modeling Formation of the monsoon 4 piece 5 piece TOGA-COARE (1992; Manus Island, New Guinea)