FACULTY OF OTHER. East African Rift
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1 Cause School of something Pliocene warmth & Intensification of FACULTY OF OTHER Northern Hemisphere Glaciation Talk Outline The Pliocene a stranger world than you might think Climate evolution the last 5 million years The mid-pliocene warm period Modelling mid-pliocene climates CASE Study 1: 1 relative contribution to mid-pliocene warmth CASE study : forcing factors important for Northern Hemisphere Glaciation A strange world. With big differences Himalayas & Tibetan Plateau Western Cordillera of North & South America East African Rift Map of the Indonesian-through flow region. The main islands, crustal fragments, and other topographic features are labelled. Currently most Indonesian through flow passes north of Sulawesi, then west of Sulawesi through the Makassar Strait, and Finally across the Banda arc (from Cane & Molnar, 001, Nature). Swan s Cay Island 16 Km from the the Isthmus of Panama 1
2 Climate Evolution Over the Last 5 Million Years Cause of Pliocene Warmth Enhanced CO : Stomatal density of fossil leaves. Analysis of δ 13 C of marine organic carbon. Carbon isotopic composition of surface and deep waters. Best estimate ppmv From Rainer Zahn Legacy of ODP. Problems. A Decoupling Between Climate & CO? Temperature Gradients: Clue to Causality? Pliocene warmth existed with pco levels equivalent to the LGM??? Pearson & Palmer (000) Pagani et al. (005) Modern Enhanced OHT Higher CO PRISM Estimates of Sea Surface Temperature Ocean Heat Transport, yet more problems SST Difference Plio minus Present (February)
3 Case Study 1: Cause of Pliocene warmth 1. Cause(s) of mid Pliocene Warmth 1) The Pliocene & causes of Pliocene warmth ) Previous modelling studies & limitations 3) An ensemble modelling approach (tracking changes from the pre-industrial i to Pliocene) ) ) Model description 5) Relative contribution to Pliocene warmth 6) Summary Lisiecki & Raymo (005) Dowsett et al. (1999) Published Mechanisms: Trace gases (Raymo et al., 1996) Ocean heat transport (Dowsett et al., 199) Palaeogeography (Rind & Chandler, 1991) ENSO dynamics (Philander & Federov, 003). Previous Modelling & Limitations (Haywood & Valdes, 00). Diagnosing Effect of Boundary Condition Changes First coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM simulation for the mid Pliocene PRISM orography PRISM vegetation and ice-sheets Meridional Overturing Streamfunction (Sv) Global Plio - Present Difference in Heat Transports Relative importance of forcing mechanisms on mid Pliocene warmth: Higher CO levels = 1.9 Wm - Changes in surface albedo =.3 Wm - (55% ice sheets, 5% sea-ice) Cloud radiative forcing = 1.8 Wm - Difference in heat trans sports (in PW) Latitude Ice Desert Rainforest Grassland Deciduous Forest Coniferous Forest Tundra Trace gases: 00 ppmv Monthly sea surface temperatures and sea-ice coverage/depth predicted by the GCM 3. An Ensemble Modelling Approach (tracking changes from the pre-industrial to Pliocene) Global Snow-Free Surface Albedo Pre-Industrial and mid Pliocene Models and Modelling MODEL VALIDATION 1. Pre-Industrial Control (PreInd Control ) Pre-Ind. Vegetation, Ice-Sheets, Orography & CO. Pre-Industrial with Pliocene Vegetation (PreInd PlioVeg ) Pre-Ind. Ice-Sheets, Orography, CO with Pliocene Vegetation 3. Pre-Industrial with Pliocene Vegetation & Orography (PreInd PlioVegOrog ) Pre-Ind. Ice-Sheets, CO with Pliocene Vegetation & Orography. Pre-Industrial with Pliocene Vegetation, Orography & Ice-Sheets (PreInd PlioVegOrogIce ) Pre-Ind. CO with Pliocene Veg, Orography, Ice-Sheets Global Orography (m) Pre-Industrial and mid Pliocene Ice Sheet Extent for the Pre-Industrial and the mid Pliocene 5. Pliocene Control with Pliocene Veg., Orography, Ice-Sheets & CO (Plio Control ) Pre-Ind. with Pliocene Veg, Orography, Ice-Sheets, CO 0 Integration Length (Years)
4 . The Hadley Centre Coupled Climate Model (HadCM3) Atmosphere resolution: 3.75 by.5º with 19 levels 5. Relative Contribution to mid Pliocene Warmth Control Simulation (PlioControl) Surface Air Temperature ( C) - mid Pliocene minus Pre-industrial Annual Mean Total Precipitation Rate (mm/day) - mid Pliocene minus Pre-industrial Annual Mean Meridional Streamfunction (Sv) Global - mid Pliocene minus Pre-industrial Depth (m) Global Mean Annual Surface Temperature Increase = 3.1 C Same trends reported in Haywood and Valdes (00) Ocean resolution: 1.5 by 1.5º with 0 levels Latitude Effect of Vegetation (PreIndPlioVeg) 5. Relative Contribution to mid Pliocene Warmth Effect of Orography (PreIndVegOrog) 5. Relative Contribution to mid Pliocene Warmth Effect of Ice (PreIndVegOrogIce) 5. Relative Contribution to mid Pliocene Warmth Effect of CO (PreIndVegOrogIceCO a.k.a PlioControl) 5. Relative Contribution to mid Pliocene Warmth
5 6. Summary Relative Contribution to mid Pliocene Warmth Total Warming = 3.1 C = 0.6 C Case Study : Intensification of Northern Hemisphere Glaciation Motivation Experimental Design Results Conclusions Future Work / Implications = 0.5 C = 1.6 C = 0.81 C () Tectonic Uplift () Decrease in CO Lunt et al., EGU 008 Bartoli et al, 005 () Tectonic Uplift () Decrease in CO Lunt et al., EGU 008 Ruddiman, p163 () Tectonic Uplift Lunt et al., EGU 008 Japsen and Chalmers, 000 Parrish et al, 007 () Decrease in CO Ruddiman and Kutzbach, 1989 Lunt et al., EGU 008 e.g. Wara et al, 005 Molnar and Cane, 00 () Uplift of Rockies () Decrease in CO 5
6 380ppmv mean, 5ppmv max 00ppmv to 80ppmv Temp GCM results Panama ENSO Rockies CO Raymo et al, 1996 () Uplift of Rockies () Decrease in CO Lunt et al., EGU 008 Precip Lunt et al., EGU 008 Ice sheet model results From Berger and Loutre, 1991 Maslin et al, 1998 () Uplift of Rockies Lunt et al., EGU 008 () Decrease in CO Lunt et al., EGU 008 Ice sheet model results () Extent of cold orbit ice sheet Conclusions Enhancement of Greenland glaciation in the late Pliocene driven by decrease in atmospheric CO Greenland ice sheet waxed and waned on orbital timescales prior to 3 Ma. ENSO and tectonic forcing factors, with or without orbital trigger, did not play an important role in Greenland glaciation. Future Work / Implications Improvement of CO records of the pre-ice core era. Improvement of IRD records in North Atlantic (including provenance). Need for transient model simulations (using fully coupled Earth System Models). Strong dependence on CO has obvious implications for future ice sheet stability. Lunt et al., EGU 008 Lunt et al., EGU 008 6
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