Potential for petroleum resource growth in PNG

Transcription

1 Potential for petroleum resource growth in PNG Dr John Warburton Jeremy Iwanec Julianne Lamb Dr Doug Waples Dr Keiran Wulff & Oil Search Exploration Team Oil Search Limited ARBN th April 2017

2 Presentation addresses» How much petroleum remains YTF?» Where is it likely to be?» Oil Search holistic approach to locating it 2

3 Key Messages» 60% of total resource is YTF» Multiple high potential play types» Prolific reservoirs» Dominantly gas prone with LNG developments driving exploration» Significant oil potential remains» Focus on game-changers» Multi-data integration, technology application & visualisation key for petroleum exploration success ~7 Bn boe remains to be discovered 92% Gas + 8% Oil 40 Tcf Gas & 550 mm bbl oil Giant Fields are likely Exploration YTF Bn boe 2.9 Producing Fields Discovered Undeveloped Resources YTF = OSH Jun 2015 Estimates 3

4 US$/mmbtu Expansion LNG Projects in PNG are lower cost & high value P nyang Muruk Hides LNG Project Breakeven Price 10 Future Juha Facility Angore 5 Moran - Agogo Kutubu Gobe Main Barikewa Source: Wood Mackenzie 3Q16 LNG Tool, full-life breakeven, 10% discount rate, FOB PNG LNG Fields Appraisal Kimu Uramu Elk / Antelope Port Moresby Proposed Papua LNG Plant Site Exploration Gas Pipeline Sharing utilities Reduction of tank storage needs Spur instead of new jetty & sharing shipping channel PNG LNG Plant Source: Google Earth Sharing of flare 4

5 Hub based Exploration Securing PNG s YTF near hubs & in new frontiers P nyang Muruk Hides NW Highlands Hub Targeting low-mod risk exploration to secure YTF proximal to infrastructure Future Juha Facility Angore Highlands Hub Moran Agogo Kutubu Gobe Main Barikewa Elk / Antelope 2016 focus on long term strategy» 60% of PNG s resource YTF» >90% gas (40 Tcf) Materially expanding PNG acreage» Gas expansion & delineate remaining oil PNG LNG Fields Kimu Gulf Hub» Strong portfolio with game changers 2017 program targeting 4-6 Tcf unrisked Appraisal Exploration Gas Pipeline Uramu» Targeting LNG hubs» Appraisal drilling in 2017» Seismic firm-up material prospects to drill 2018 Shallow Gulf Hub Deepwater Gulf Hub 5

6 Plate Setting Proven prolific petroleum systems with multiple plays» NW Shelf prolific HC analogue Mid-Jurassic to Present Day» N drift of Australia led to extensive carbonate system from 30 Ma» Foldbelt formed 12-0 Ma by collision of Pacific & Australia plates Tropics Zahirovic et al,

7 Provinces Foldbelt Foreland Shallow offshore Internal Zones Deepwater 7

8 Traps Multiple extensional, compressional & stratigraphic plays Foldbelt Foreland Frontal Central Interior Internal Deepwater Oil Search Cross Sections» Complex geology & physiography» Likely multiple new plays» Demands integration & regional consistency» Oil Search has new PNG-wide Balanced cross-sections Detailed chronostratigraphic sections Oil Search Chronostratigraphic Sections 8

9 Gulf of Papua 1,500 km long cross section Darai on Basement Foreland Shallow offshore Oil Search has constructed new consistent Chronostratigraphic sections through all PNG s key petroleum systems including Global effects Deepwater Ocean Crust 9

10 Foreland to Gulf of Papua 1,500 km long cross section from West Papua to Coral Sea Oceanic Crust 10

11 Gulf of Papua Key Play types 3 Dibiri Pasca Flinders & Hagana Foreland Shallow Deepwater 1) Jur-Cret onshore oil/gas field play has limited 1 potential offshore due to pre-tertiary uplift 2) Eoc-Mioc carbonates, recent onshore discovery. 2 Pasca gas discovery. New Eocene reef bank play 3) Plio-Pleistocene turbidite sand play dry gas 3 discovery, stratigraphic trap 4 4) Tertiary Reefs in deepwater 11

12 Gulf of Papua Frontier Cenozoic Carbonate Bank Play Pasca Eocene-Miocene (High Velocity) Basement (High Velocity) Alpha Lead (Low Velocity) Over-pressured Plio-Pleistocene (Low Velocity) Velocity superposed on seismic 2 Foreland Shallow Deepwater 1) Jur-Cret onshore oil/gas field play has limited 1 potential offshore due to pre-tertiary uplift 2) Eoc-Mioc carbonates, recent onshore field. Pasca 2 gas discovery. New Eocene reef bank play 3) Plio-Pleistocene turbidite sand play dry gas 3 discovery, stratigraphic trap 4 4) Tertiary Reefs in deepwater 12

13 Gulf of Papua Deepwater Frontier Carbonate Reef Play 2,000 m Deepwater mudstone seal 4km Basement High Carbonate Reef 4» Unexplored ~135,000 km 2» Poolsize plots show big fields likely» Deepwater segment linked with shelf petroleum system?» HCs Flinders dry gas Pasca wet gas Chimneys & bright spots 1D models show oil & gas» Lead size potential for standalone new field development Deepwater 13

14 Foldbelt Discoveries & Exploration Juha (1982) Muruk (2016) Hides (1987) Angore (1989) Field (Discovery Date) Prospect Interior Foldbelt Frontier Mananda (2010) SE Mananda (1991) Moran (1996) Agogo (1989) Kutubu (1985) 14

15 Foldbelt Structure & topography 400 km Image from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Oil Search has constructed consistent balanced sections across all PNG s key petroleum systems 15

16 Foldbelt Trap charge model 3.3 Ma Hydrocarbon Reservoir Events Chart 3.2 Ma Broad anticline Time Million years HC Expulsion Trap Formation 2.7 Ma Tighter anticline, incipient fault Displacement Fault Tip Tighter anticline, minor fault throw 1.7 Ma Fault Trace Length Tight anticline, major fault throw, fault seal, Footwall Trap 16

17 3.2 My Oil Search has a 4D charge & migration model (based on ~130 1D models) at regional & prospect scales over all PNG s key petroleum systems HC Petroleum generation & migration Anticline Trap o o HC generated and migrates north into foldbelt and south into foreland Incipient Thrust Anticline amplifies No Fault propagation Events Chart Time Million years HC Expulsion Trap Formation Anticline grows, HC trapped in hangingwall Top Imburu D Depth 17

18 1.7 My HC Anticline Trap Footwall Trap HC Fault links along trend & seals Fault seals, hangingwall isolated and petroleum trapped in subthrust (new footwall play) Events Chart Time Million years HC Expulsion Trap Formation Fault seals, HC trapped in footwall Top Imburu D Depth 18

19 PNG Stacked CCRS integrated surface, well, seismic, seep & modelling 1 Under-explored extensions of Proven Petroleum Systems & prospective game-changer frontiers PLAY RISK Low 6 Medium High M-H risk reflects data paucity in deepwater PROVINCES 1. NW Foldbelt 2. Aure Foldbelt 3. Shallow Gulf 4. Deepwater Gulf 5. Western Foreland 6. Interior Foldbelt 7. Eastern Foreland 8. Central Foldbelt 9. Frontal Foldbelt 19

20 Initial Recoverable (bn boe) Cumulative Discovered P50 Recoverable Volume (bn boe) Conclusions 5 5,000 4, ,000 3, ,000 2,500 Hides is largest field to date Future fields of all sizes remain YTF Giant new fields are likely P nyang Elk-Antelope» PNG s Yet-to-Find» 40 Tcf & 500 mm bbl (60% of PNG s total)» Giant fields (~1Bn boe) remain top be discovered 2 2,000 1, , ,000 10, , , , ,000 0 Total 6,998 YTF 4,778 Discovered Total PNG Petroleum Resource ~ 12 billion boe (60% YTF) 1,850 2,063 NW Foldbelt , Aure Foldbelt 200 Well Well count Number 1, Gulf of Papua Deepwater Western Foreland Hides Reserves Additions PNG Resource Base Interior Foldbelt Discovered Eastern Foreland 300 YTF 300 1,079 Central Foldbelt Frontal Foldbelt» CRS mapping has located sweet-spots» Technology, consistent workflows & 4D visualisation are essential to improve exploration success» PNG petroleum industry has robust future» encouraging YTF estimates» established world class LNG projects» others to follow» Initiatives that facilitate exploration activity will be instrumental in realising PNG s petroleum potential 20

21 Acknowledgements & Disclaimer» Thanks to the Oil Search Exploration Team & JV Partners that have contributed. While every effort is made to provide accurate and complete information, Oil Search Limited does not warrant that the information in this presentation is free from errors or omissions or is suitable for its intended use. Subject to any terms implied by law which cannot be excluded, Oil Search accepts no responsibility for any loss, damage, cost or expense (whether direct or indirect) incurred by you as a result of any error, omission or misrepresentation in information in this presentation. All information in this presentation is subject to change without notice. This presentation may contain forward-looking statements which are subject to particular risks associated with the oil and gas industry. Oil Search Limited believes there are reasonable grounds for the expectations on which the statements are based. However, actual outcomes could differ materially due to a range of factors including oil and gas prices, demand for oil, currency fluctuations, drilling results, field performance, the timing of well work-overs and field development, reserves depletion, progress on gas commercialisation and fiscal and other government issues and approvals. 21

22 Potential for petroleum resource growth in PNG Dr John Warburton Jeremy Iwanec Julianne Lamb Dr Doug Waples Dr Keiran Wulff & Oil Search Exploration Team Oil Search Limited ARBN th April 2017