Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré. Who am I today? Some snapshots into my main results And from now on?
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1 Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré Who am I today? Some snapshots into my main results And from now on?
2 Who am I today? Scien>st at the Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l Environnement (close to Paris, France) MERMAID team leader : Modelling the Earth Response to Mul;ple Anthropogenic Interac;ons and Dynamics [~10 scien+sts with permanent posi+on, + ~20 PhDs and Post- Docs] è Earth System Modelling [foci: Feedbacks between Land, Ocean and Atmospheric Chemistry] BASC co-coordinator Biodiversity, Agrosystems, Society and Climate ; Laboratory of excellency [8 years, 5 M, ~450 scien+sts, various disciplines: agronomy, ecology, climate, economy, human sciences]
3 Who am I today? Scien>st at the Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l Environnement MERMAID team leader : Modelling the Earth Response to Mul;ple Anthropogenic Interac;ons and Dynamics [~10 scien+sts with permanent posi+on, + ~20 PhDs and Post- Docs] è Earth System Modelling [foci: Land, Ocean and Atmospheric Chemistry] BASC co-coordinator Biodiversity, Agrosystems, Society and Climate ; Laboratory of excellency [8 years, 5 M, ~450 scien+sts, various disciplines: agronomy, ecology, climate, economy, human sciences]
4 Some snapshots into my main results
5 Glacial Incep>on ~ years ago TIME SCALES Mid-Holocene ~6000 years ago pre-industrial & present-day Next Century Global SPATIAL SCALES Regional Local
6 Glacial Incep>on ~ years ago TIME SCALES Mid-Holocene ~6000 years ago pre-industrial & present-day Next Century Global Interac>ve Landcover maxers in climate dynamics Climate < > Dynamic Vegeta2on SPATIAL SCALES Regional Local
7 Present-Day Vegeta>on Distribu>on Glacial Incep>on ~ years ago Climate forced by orbital configura+on è Glacia+on sensi+ve regions [blue ones] Resul+ng landcover Change de Noblet et al., GRL 1996
8 Present-Day Vegeta>on Distribu>on Glacial Incep>on ~ years ago Climate forced by orbital configura+on è Glacia+on sensi+ve regions [blue ones] Resul+ng landcover Change Climate Land-Cover de Noblet et al., GRL 1996
9 Present-Day Vegeta>on Distribu>on Glacial Incep>on ~ years ago Climate forced by orbital configura+on è Glacia+on sensi+ve regions [blue ones] Resul+ng landcover Change Climate Land-Cover Equilibrium reached between climate & Vegeta>on de Noblet et al., GRL 1996
10 Posi>ve feedback between summer Cooling and limited vegeta>on growth 115 kyr BP : in summary Increase in surface albedo in summer as in winter Summer cooling resul>ng from changes in the Earth s orbit Southward Shi_ of boreal trees at the expense of toundra + de Noblet et al., GRL 1996 Spring/summer cooling + Winters also start to cool down 10
11 Glacial Incep>on ~ years ago TIME SCALES Mid-Holocene ~6000 years ago pre-industrial & present-day Next Century Global Interac>ve Landcover maxers in climate dynamics Climate < > Dynamic Vegeta2on African Monsoon Green Sahara SPATIAL SCALES Regional Local
12 Glacial Incep>on ~ years ago TIME SCALES Mid-Holocene ~6000 years ago pre-industrial & present-day Next Century Global Interac>ve Landcover maxers in climate dynamics Climate < > Dynamic Vegeta2on African Monsoon Green Sahara Interac>ve Land-cover maxers for persistence SPATIAL SCALES Regional Local
13 Power Spectrum of monthly precipita>on (a_er removal of seasonal fluctua>ons) Dynamic Land Cover + LAI Prognos>c seasonal cycle of LAI Imposed seasonal cycle of LAI Climate Phenology & Land-Cover Delire et al. (J. Clim. 2011)
14 Power Spectrum of monthly precipita>on (a_er removal of seasonal fluctua>ons) Dynamic Land Cover + LAI Prognos>c seasonal cycle of LAI Imposed seasonal cycle of LAI Variability increases with >me scales when degrees of freedom are added Climate Phenology & Land-Cover Delire et al. (J. Clim. 2011)
15 Glacial Incep>on ~ years ago TIME SCALES Mid-Holocene ~6000 years ago pre-industrial & present-day Next Century Global Interac>ve Landcover maxers in climate dynamics Climate < > Dynamic Vegeta2on African Monsoon Green Sahara Interac>ve Land-cover maxers for persistence SPATIAL SCALES Regional Interac>ve phenology maxers for the magnitude of heat wave Local
16 Role of Interac>ve Phenology on 2003 Heat Wave Regional Climate Model: WRF coupled to Dynamic Vegeta>on Model: ORCHIDEE Dominant Vegeta>on = Crops 2 simula>ons: 1) with interac>ve LAI, 2) imposing 2002 LAI Stéfanon et al. JGR 2012
![LAI LAI imposed to 2002 condi>ons]](/docs-images/90/103283545/images/17-3.jpg "Dampening Amplifica;on Stéfanon et")
17 Observed June anomaly of Surface Temperature ( T) Observed August anomaly of Surface Temperature ( T) LAI-induced changes in T [Interac>ve LAI LAI imposed to 2002 condi>ons] Dampening Amplifica;on Stéfanon et al. JGR 2012
18 Earlier Onset of crops è larger LAI in 2003 than in 2002 è more evapotranspira>on è cooler surface è reduced warming Earlier senescence due to drought è lower LAI in 2003 than in 2002 è less evapotranspira>on è warmer surface è enhanced warming LAI-induced Evapotranspira>on (mm/day) LAI-induced T ( C) Stéfanon et al. JGR 2012
19 Glacial Incep>on ~ years ago TIME SCALES Mid-Holocene ~6000 years ago pre-industrial & present-day Next Century SPATIAL SCALES Global Regional Interac>ve Landcover maxers in climate dynamics Climate < > Dynamic Vegeta2on African Monsoon Green Sahara LUCID Phase 1 LUCID CMIP5 Land Use & Climate Interac>ve phenology maxers for the magnitude of heat wave Local
20 hyp:// No Significant Signal for mean annual global temperature Increased Crop areas since preindustrial >mes & The response of Surface Air Temperature However, signal of equivalent magnitude but of opposite sign at the regional level (here North America) LULCC CO2SST Response to increasing crop areas Response to global warming Pitman et al. (2009) de Noblet-Ducoudré et al. (2012) Response to Increasing crop areas Response to global warming
21 hyp:// No Significant Signal for mean annual global temperature Increased Crop areas since preindustrial >mes & The response of Surface Air Temperature However, signal of equivalent magnitude but of opposite sign at the regional level (here North America) LULCC CO2SST Response to increasing crop areas Response to global warming Pitman et al. (2009) de Noblet-Ducoudré et al. (2012) Response to Increasing crop areas Response to global warming
22 LUCID Phase 1 Sensi>vity of each DGVM s simulated Latent Heat Flux to the magnitude of LULCC INCREASE Most sensi>ve Less sensi>ve DECREASE Boisier et al. (2012) differences in land-surface parameteriza>ons explain ~2/3 rd of differences between clima>c responses
23 Boisier et al. (2013) Historical impacts of LULCC es>mated from present-day satellite observa>ons
24 Glacial Incep>on ~ years ago TIME SCALES Mid-Holocene ~6000 years ago pre-industrial & present-day Next Century SPATIAL SCALES Global Regional Interac>ve Landcover maxers in climate dynamics Climate < > Dynamic Vegeta2on African Monsoon LUCID Phase 1 Green Sahara Impacts of climate changes Interac>ve phenology maxers for the magnitude of heat wave and variability on the distribu>on of semi-arid areas Local
25 Warm Semi-Arid Regions (derived from Köppen classifica>on) will expand with climate warming km 2 WSA surface increase + 1, km 2 0 R 2 ~0.52 Warm semi arid tropical areas, today~ 10 7 km km C 0 C Warming intensity Rajaud et al. in prep. +6 C
26 Glacial Incep>on ~ years ago TIME SCALES Mid-Holocene ~6000 years ago pre-industrial & present-day Next Century SPATIAL SCALES Global Regional Interac>ve Landcover maxers in climate dynamics Climate < > Dynamic Vegeta2on African Monsoon Green Sahara LUCID Phase 1 Interac>ve phenology maxers for the magnitude of heat wave Impacts of climate changes and variability on the distribu>on of semi-arid areas Local Impacts of climate changes and variability on managed ecosystems in France
27 And from now on? + My ques>ons to GEWEX
28 pre-industrial & present-day TIME SCALES Next Century Global LUMIP SPATIAL SCALES Regional Land Use & Climate EURO-CORDEX + LUCID (in prep.) Impacts of climate changes and variability on managed ecosystems Local Interac>ons with local stakeholders / Co-construc>on of useful indicators of change
29 Main scien>fic ques>ons/interest for the near future What are the rela>ve contribu>ons, on regional climate change of i) global climate change, ii) local land use & land cover changes (LULCC)? What errors do we make in impact studies if the simulated regional climate does not include LULCC? Are LULCC triggering remote impacts? Where? How? [Quesada et al. subm.] How do ci>es combine with climate change to impact periurban and urban ecosystem produc>vity?.
30 My ques>ons to GEWEX What is GEWEX doing with respect to climate services? [interac>ons with Future Earth?] How does GEWEX approach decadal >me scales?
31
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