HIGHLIGHTS. 9 February 2016

Transcription

1 9 February 2016 HIGHLIGHTS Crude oil prices spiralled lower during January, with brimming stockpiles pushing global benchmarks below $30/bbl. Markets edged higher in early February on suggestions of possible discussions to coordinate a global cut in production. ICE Brent was last trading at $33.93 /bbl, while NYMEX WTI was at $30.65/bbl. Having peaked, at a five-year high of 1.6 mb/d in 2015, global oil demand growth is forecast to ease back considerably in 2016, to 1.2 mb/d, pulled down by notable slowdowns in Europe, China and the US. Early elements of the projected slowdown surfaced in 4Q15. Global oil supply dropped 0.2 mb/d to 96.5 mb/d in January, as higher OPEC output only partly offset lower non-opec production. Non-OPEC supplies slipped 0.5 mb/d from a month earlier to stand close to levels of a year ago. For 2016 as a whole, non-opec output is expected to decline by 0.6 mb/d, to 57.1 mb/d. OPEC crude oil output rose by 280 kb/d in January to mb/d as a sanctions-free Iran, Saudi Arabia and Iraq all turned up the taps. Supplies from the group during January stood nearly 1.7 mb/d higher year-on-year. OECD commercial stocks built counter-seasonally by 7.6 mb in December to stand at mb at month end, 350 mb above average. Refined products covered 32.3 days of forward demand, 0.1 days above end-november. Preliminary information indicates that inventories have continued building into January. Global refinery runs fell by 1.3 mb/d in January to 79.8 mb/d, as the onset of seasonal maintenance in the US and weakening refinery margins curbed runs. Global throughputs nevertheless stood more than 1.7 mb/d above a year earlier, with gains particularly strong in the US and the Middle East.

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS HIGHLIGHTS... 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS... 2 False dawn?... 3 DEMAND... 4 Tables... 4 OECD... 4 Non-OECD... 4 SUPPLY... 6 Tables... 6 OECD STOCKS... 7 Tables... 7 PRICES... 9 Tables... 9 REFINING Tables TABLES Note to Subscribers: This month s Oil Market Report is an abbreviated version; it includes the highlights, an overview and tables, due to the release of the Medium-Term Oil Market Report, 2016 on 22 nd February. The usual OMR format with detailed written analysis will resume for the March edition.

3 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY - OIL MARKET REPORT MARKET OVERVIEW False dawn? The collapse in oil prices which characterised the first half of January looked to have halted earlier this month. On January 20th closing prices for WTI and Brent reached nadirs of $28.35/bbl and $27.88 / bbl respectively, since when Brent has moved briefly above $35/bbl and WTI has lagged a little behind. Perhaps some of the more fevered forecasts of oil prices falling to as low as $10/bbl are extreme and better days do lie ahead for oil prices. However, before victory over the bearish forces is declared we should look at the main factors driving this optimism. Persistent speculation about a deal between OPEC and leading non-opec producers to cut output appears to be just that: speculation. It is OPEC s business whether or not it makes output cuts either alone or in concert with other producers but the likelihood of coordinated cuts is very low. This removes one driver of bullishness. Another widely-held view is that OPEC production, other than Iran, will not grow as strongly in 2016 as it did in Although it is still early in the year, Iraqi output in January reached a new record and it is possible that more increases could follow. Iran has ramped up production in preparation for its emergence from nuclear sanctions and preliminary data suggests that Saudi Arabia s shipments have increased. Thus, another driver might be removed. mb/d Demand/Supply Balance until 4Q16* mb/d *OPEC crude production assumed at 32.7mb/d from February 2016 onwards Q09 3Q10 1Q12 3Q13 1Q15 3Q16 Impl. stock ch.&misc (RHS) Demand Supply* Another driver of bullishness is that oil demand growth will receive a boost from the collapse in oil prices to below $30/bbl. We retain our view that global oil demand growth will ease back considerably in 2016 to 1.2 mb/d at 1.2% still a very respectable rate but our analysis so far sees no evidence of a need to revise it upwards. Estimates by the International Monetary Fund that global GDP growth in 2016 will be 3.4% followed by 3.6% in 2017 is heavily caveated with risks to growth in Brazil, Russia and of course slower growth in China. Economic headwinds suggest that any change will likely be downwards. A factor that helped sentiment is the recent fall in the value of the US dollar against some currencies and the perception that this reduces the cost of imported oil. Although it is widely believed that interest rate hikes in 2016 in the United States and the United Kingdom are increasingly unlikely, the dollar is still likely to remain strong as it benefits from its safe haven status with other economies faring relatively worse. Another driver removed. The expected fall in non-opec output is another driver of possibly higher prices later this year. Our current assumption is that total non-opec output will fall by a net 600 kb/d in The number could be higher of course and many senior international oil company figures have said so but there is a lingering feeling that the big fall-off in production from US shale producers is taking an awful long time to happen. Perhaps resilience still has some way to go. With major doubts around these five drivers of recent relative price strength we are left with our revised supply/demand balance. In this report we suggest that the surplus of supply over demand in the early part of 2016 is even greater than we said in last month s OMR. On the assumption perhaps optimistic - that OPEC crude production is flat at 32.7 mb/d in Q116 there is an implied stock build of 2 mb/d followed by a 1.5 mb/d build in Q216. Supply and demand data for the second half of the year suggests more stock building, this time by 0.3 mb/d. If these numbers prove to be accurate, and with the market already awash in oil, it is very hard to see how oil prices can rise significantly in the short term. In these conditions the short term risk to the downside has increased FEBRUARY

4 DEMAND INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY - OIL MARKET REPORT DEMAND Tables Global Oil Demand ( ) (million barrels per day) 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q Africa Americas Asia/Pacific Europe FSU Middle East World Annual Chg (%) Annual Chg (mb/d) Changes from last OMR (mb/d) OECD OECD Demand based on Adjusted Preliminary Submissions - December 2015 (million barrels per day) Gasoline Jet/Kerosene Diesel Other Gasoil RFO Other Total Products mb/d % pa mb/d % pa mb/d % pa mb/d % pa mb/d % pa mb/d % pa mb/d % pa OECD Americas* US Canada Mexico OECD Europe Germany United Kingdom France Italy Spain OECD Asia & Oceania Japan Korea Australia OECD Total * Including US territories Non-OECD Non-OECD: Demand by Product (thousand barrels per day) Demand Annual Chg (kb/d) Annual Chg (%) 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 3Q15 4Q15 3Q15 4Q15 LPG & Ethane 5,278 5,378 5, Naphtha 3,109 3,199 3, Motor Gasoline 10,339 10,507 10, Jet Fuel & Kerosene 3,076 3,104 3, Gas/Diesel Oil 14,667 14,460 14, Residual Fuel Oil 5,341 5,128 5, Other Products 6,804 6,956 6, Total Products 48,615 48,734 48,664 1, FEBRUARY 2016

5 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY - OIL MARKET REPORT DEMAND Non-OECD: Demand by Region (thousand barrels per day) Demand Annual Chg (kb/d) Annual Chg (%) 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 3Q15 4Q15 3Q15 4Q15 Africa 4,061 3,953 4, Asia 23,834 23,567 23,947 1, FSU 4,897 5,045 4, Latin America 6,783 6,875 6, Middle East 8,339 8,588 8, Non-OECD Europe Total Products 48,615 48,734 48,664 1, China China: Demand by Product (thousand barrels per day) Demand Annual Chg (kb/d) Annual Chg (%) LPG & Ethane 884 1,075 1, Naphtha 1,168 1,184 1, Motor Gasoline 2,252 2,445 2, Jet Fuel & Kerosene Gas/Diesel Oil 3,381 3,395 3, Residual Fuel Oil Other Products 2,070 2,222 2, Total Products 10,612 11,183 11, FEBRUARY

6 SUPPLY INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY - OIL MARKET REPORT SUPPLY Tables OPEC Crude Production (million barrels per day) Sustainable Spare Capacity Nov 2015 Dec 2015 Jan Crude OPEC Supply Production vs Jan 2016 Supply Supply Supply Supply 2015 vs 2014 Capacity 1 Supply Algeria Angola Ecuador Indonesia Iran Iraq Kuwait Libya Nigeria Qatar Saudi Arabia UAE Venezuela Total OPEC (excluding Iraq, Nigeria, Libya and Iran) Capacity levels can be reached within 90 days and sustained for an extended period. 2 Includes half of Neutral Zone production. 3 Includes upgraded Orinoco extra-heavy oil assumed at 500 kb/d in January. Non-OPEC Supply (million barrels per day) Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q Americas Europe Asia Oceania Total OECD Former USSR Europe China Other Asia Latin America Middle East Africa Total Non-OECD Processing Gains Global Biofuels Total Non-OPEC Annual Chg (mb/d) Changes from last OMR (mb/d) All world oil supply data for January discussed in this report are IEA estimates. Estimates for OPEC countries, Alaska, Mexico and Russia are supported by preliminary January supply data. 6 9 FEBRUARY 2016

7 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY - OIL MARKET REPORT OECD STOCKS OECD STOCKS Tables Preliminary Industry Stock Change in December 2015 and Fourth Quarter 2015 December 2015 (preliminary) Fourth Quarter 2015 (million barrels) (million barrels per day) (million barrels per day) Am Europe As. Ocean Total Am Europe As. Ocean Total Am Europe As. Ocean Total Crude Oil Gasoline Middle Distillates Residual Fuel Oil Other Products Total Products Other Oils Total Oil Other oils includes NGLs, feedstocks and other hydrocarbons. Revisions versus 19 January 2016 Oil Market Report (million barrels) Americas Europe Asia Oceania OECD Oct-15 Nov-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Crude Oil Gasoline Middle Distillates Residual Fuel Oil Other Products Total Products Other Oils Total Oil Other oils includes NGLs, feedstocks and other hydrocarbons. 9 FEBRUARY

8 OECD STOCKS INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY - OIL MARKET REPORT Regional OECD End-of-Month Industry Stocks (in days of forward demand and million barrels of total oil) Days Days Days 1 Americas 52 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Range Avg Days Europe 62 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Range Avg Days Asia Oceania Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Range Avg OECD Total Oil 56 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Range Avg Million Barrels mb Americas 1,650 1,600 1,550 1,500 1,450 1,400 1,350 1,300 1,250 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Range Avg mb 1,050 1, Europe 850 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Range Avg mb Asia Oceania 380 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Range Avg mb 3,100 3,000 2,900 2,800 2,700 2, OECD Total Oil 2,500 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Range Avg Days of forw ard demand are based on average demand over the next three months 8 9 FEBRUARY 2016

9 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY - OIL MARKET REPORT OECD STOCKS PRICES Tables Nov Dec Jan Jan-Dec % Week Commencing: Avg Chg Chg 04 Jan 11 Jan 18 Jan 25 Jan 01 Feb NYM EX Light Sw eet Crude Oil RBOB No.2 Heating Oil No.2 Heating Oil ($/mmbtu) Henry Hub Natural Gas ($/mmbtu) ICE Brent Gasoil Prompt Month Differentials NYMEX WTI - ICE Brent NYMEX No.2 Heating Oil - WTI NYMEX RBOB - WTI NYMEX Crack (RBOB) NYMEX No.2 - Natural Gas ($/mmbtu) ICE Gasoil - ICE Brent Source: ICE, NYMEX. Prompt Month Oil Futures Prices (monthly and weekly averages, $/bbl) Spot crude oil prices and differentials Table Unavailable Available in the subscription version. To subscribe, visit: 9 FEBRUARY

10 OECD STOCKS INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY - OIL MARKET REPORT Spot product prices Table Unavailable Available in the subscription version. To subscribe, visit: FEBRUARY 2016

11 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY - OIL MARKET REPORT REFINING REFINING Tables Refinery Crude Throughput and Utilisation in OECD Countries (million barrels per day) Change from Utilisation rate (1) Jul 15 Aug 15 Sep 15 Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 Nov 15 Nov 14 Dec 15 Nov 14 US (2) Canada Chile Mexico OECD Americas (3) France Germany Italy Netherlands Spain United Kingdom Other OECD Europe OECD Europe Japan South Korea Other Asia Oceania OECD Asia Oceania OECD Total Expressed as a percentage, based on crude throughput and current operable refining capacity 2 US50 3 OECD Americas includes Chile and OECD Asia Oceania includes Israel. OECD Europe includes Slovenia and Estonia, though neither country has a refinery Global Refinery Crude Throughput (million barrels per day) 3Q2015 Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 4Q2015 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16 1Q2016 Apr 16 May 16 Americas Europe Asia Oceania Total OECD FSU Non-OECD Europe China Other Asia Latin America Middle East Africa Total Non-OECD Total Preliminary and estimated runs based on capacity, know n outages, economic run cuts and global demand forecast 9 FEBRUARY

12 REFINING INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY - OIL MARKET REPORT bw Europe IEA/KBC Global Indicator Refining Margins 1 ($/bbl) Monthly AverMge ChMnge AverMge for Reek ending: Oct 15 Nov 15 Gec 15 JMn 16 JMn 16-Gec JMn 15 JMn 22 JMn 2E JMn 05 Feb Brent (CrMcking) 4B24 6B65 4B38 5B50 1B12 5B38 6B16 5B85 4B60 4B26 UrMls (CrMcking) 5B66 8B37 5B04 6B63 1B58 6B44 7B24 6B84 5BE8 5B65 Brent (Hydroskimming) -0BE5 0BE3-1B35 0B31 1B66-0B26 0B85 0B82-0B17-0B32 UrMls (Hydroskimming) -0B46 1B44-1BE1 0B28 2B1E -0B65 0B67 0B75 0B33 0B21 Mediterranean Es Sider (CrMcking) 6B01 7B85 5B1E 6B58 1B3E 6B18 7B17 6BE1 6B08 6B06 UrMls (CrMcking) 5B81 8B0E 4B55 6B01 1B46 5B45 6B76 6B30 5B55 5B61 Es Sider (Hydroskimming) 1B04 2B77 0B64 2B67 2B03 1B84 3B14 3B25 2B47 2B3E UrMls (Hydroskimming) -0B31 1B38-1B80 0B66 2B46-0B67 1B28 1B40 0B64 0B88 US Gulf Coast 50C50 HISCIIS (CrMcking) 5BE2 5B84 5B13 4B87-0B27 4B28 4B31 6B07 5B05 4B00 MMrs (CrMcking) 4B12 3B60 2B76 4B27 1B51 3B02 4B12 5B52 4B67 3B34 ASCI (CrMcking) 3B58 3B22 2B26 3B88 1B62 2B68 3B81 5B14 4B15 2B88 50C50 HISCIIS (Coking) 7B82 7B78 7B44 7B00-0B43 6B63 6B50 8B0E 7B01 5B7E 50C50 MMyMCMMrs (Coking) 8B5E 8B87 EB58 EBE8 0B40 EB83 EBEE 10B41 EB77 7B87 ASCI (Coking) EB1E EB04 8B46 EB70 1B24 EB02 EB74 10B60 EB61 8B17 US Midcon WTI (CrMcking) 15B28 8B01 7B43 3BE5-3B48 6B04 4B02 3B76 1BE5 0B11 30C70 WCSCBMkken (CrMcking) 13B74 6B44 6B27 4B41-1B86 6B04 5B50 3B16 2B68 0B83 BMkken (CrMcking) 16B37 7B76 8B00 5B46-2B54 7B61 6B5E 3BE4 3B38 0BE3 WTI (Coking) 18B22 10B12 EB77 5BE1-3B86 8B38 6B00 5B56 3B62 1B55 30C70 WCSCBMkken (Coking) 1EB13 10B3E 10B14 7B86-2B28 10B03 8B8E 6B37 5B87 3B81 BMkken (Coking) 17B66 8B61 EB06 6B35-2B72 8B70 7B50 4B75 4B12 1B53 Singapore GubMi (Hydroskimming) -0B80 1B80 0B72 2B75 2B02 1B68 2B77 3B4E 3B04 0B6E TMpis (Hydroskimming) 3B17 4B34 2B78 2B31-0B47 2B18 3B51 2B27 1B26 1BE5 GubMi (HydrocrMcking) 5B28 7B73 6B85 7B73 0B88 7B21 8B01 8B15 7B56 5B10 TMpis (HydrocrMcking) 7B8E 8BE4 7B70 6B52-1B1E 6B77 7BE0 6B27 5B12 5B53 1 Global Indicator Refining Margins are calculated for various complexity configurations, each optimised for processing the specific crude(s) in a specific refining centre. Margins include energy cost, but exclude other variable costs, depreciation and amortisation. Consequently, reported margins should be taken as an indication, or proxy, of changes in profitability for a given refining centre. bo attempt is made to model or otherwise comment upon the relative economics of specific refineries running individual crude slates and producing custom product sales, nor are these calculations intended to infer the marginal values of crude for pricing purposes. Source: IEA, KBC Advanced Technologies (KBC) 12 9 FEBRUARY 2016

13 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY - OIL MARKET REPORT TABLES TABLES Table 1 WORLD OIL SUPPLY AND DEMAND Table 1: World Oil Supply And Demand (million barrels per day) Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q OECD DEMAND Americas Europe Asia Oceania Total OECD NON-OECD DEMAND FSU Europe China Other Asia Americas Middle East Africa Total Non-OECD Total Demand OECD SUPPLY Americas Europe Asia Oceania Total OECD NON-OECD SUPPLY FSU Europe China Other Asia Americas 2, Middle East Africa Total Non-OECD Processing gains Global Biofuels Total Non-OPEC Supply OPEC Crude NGLs Total OPEC Total Supply STOCK CHANGES AND MISCELLANEOUS Reported OECD Industry Government Total Floating storage/oil in transit Miscellaneous to balance Total Stock Ch. & Misc Memo items: Call on OPEC crude + Stock ch Measured as deliveries from refineries and primary stocks, comprises inland deliveries, international marine bunkers, refinery fuel, crude for direct burning, oil from non-conventional sources and other sources of supply. 2 Other Asia excludes Indonesia throughout. Latin America excludes Ecuador throughout. Africa excludes Angola throughout. Total Non-OPEC excludes all countries that were members of OPEC at 1 January Total OPEC comprises all countries which were OPEC members at 1 January Net volumetric gains and losses in the refining process and marine transportation losses. 4 Comprises crude oil, condensates, NGLs, oil from non-conventional sources and other sources of supply. 5 Includes changes in non-reported stocks in OECD and non-oecd areas. 6 Equals the arithmetic difference between total demand minus total non-opec supply minus OPEC NGLs. 9 FEBRUARY

14 TABLES INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY - OIL MARKET REPORT Table 1a WORLD OIL SUPPLY AND DEMAND: CHANGES FROM LAST MONTH'S TABLE 1 (million barrels per day) Table 1a: World Oil Supply And Demand: Changes From Last Month s Table Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q OECD DEMAND Americas Europe Asia Oceania Total OECD NON-OECD DEMAND FSU Europe China Other Asia Americas Middle East Africa Total Non-OECD Total Demand OECD SUPPLY Americas Europe Asia Oceania Total OECD NON-OECD SUPPLY FSU Europe China Other Asia Americas Middle East Africa Total Non-OECD Processing gains Global Biofuels Total Non-OPEC Supply OPEC Crude NGLs Total OPEC Total Supply STOCK CHANGES AND MISCELLANEOUS REPORTED OECD Industry Government Total Floating storage/oil in transit Miscellaneous to balance Total Stock Ch. & Misc Memo items: Call on OPEC crude + Stock ch When submitting their monthly oil statistics, OECD Member countries periodically update data for prior periods. Similar updates to non-oecd data can occur FEBRUARY 2016

15 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY - OIL MARKET REPORT TABLES Table 2: Summary of Global Oil Demand Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q Demand (mb/d) Americas Europe Asia Oceania Total OECD Asia Middle East Americas FSU Africa Europe Total Non-OECD World of which: US Europe 5* China Japan India Russia Brazil Saudi Arabia Canada Korea Mexico Iran Total % of World 69.4% 69.7% 69.2% 69.4% 69.8% 69.5% 69.6% 69.3% 69.4% 69.2% 69.4% 69.2% 68.9% 69.2% 69.0% 69.1% Annual Change (% per annum) Americas Europe Asia Oceania Total OECD Asia Middle East Americas FSU Africa Europe Total Non-OECD World Annual Change (mb/d) Americas Europe Asia Oceania Total OECD Asia Middle East Americas FSU Africa Europe Total Non-OECD World Revisions to Oil Demand from Last Month's Report (mb/d) Americas Europe Asia Oceania Total OECD Asia Middle East Americas FSU Africa Europe Total Non-OECD World Revisions to Oil Demand Growth from Last Month's Report (mb/d) World * France, Germany, Italy, Spain and UK Table 2 SUMMARY OF GLOBAL OIL DEMAND 9 FEBRUARY

16 TABLES INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY - OIL MARKET REPORT Table 2a: OECD Regional Oil Demand Table 2a OECD REGIONAL OIL DEMAND 1 (million barrels per day) Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 Sep 15 Oct 15 Nov 15 2 Oct 15 Nov 14 Americas LPG and ethane Naphtha Motor gasoline Jet and kerosene Gasoil/diesel oil Residual fuel oil Other products Total Europe LPG and ethane Naphtha Motor gasoline Jet and kerosene Gasoil/diesel oil Residual fuel oil Other products Total Asia Oceania LPG and ethane Naphtha Motor gasoline Jet and kerosene Gasoil/diesel oil Residual fuel oil Other products Total OECD LPG and ethane Naphtha Motor gasoline Jet and kerosene Gasoil/diesel oil Residual fuel oil Other products Total Demand, measured as deliveries from refineries and primary stocks, comprises inland deliveries, international bunkers and refinery fuel. It includes crude for direct burning, oil from non-conventional sources and other sources of supply. Jet/kerosene comprises jet kerosene and non-aviation kerosene. Gasoil comprises diesel, light heating oil and other gasoils. North America comprises US 50 states, US territories, Mexico and Canada. 2 Latest official OECD submissions (MOS). Latest month vs FEBRUARY 2016

17 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY - OIL MARKET REPORT TABLES Table 2b OIL DEMAND IN SELECTED OECD COUNTRIES 1 Table 2b: Oil Demand in Selected OECD (million barrels per Countries day) Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 Sep 15 Oct 15 Nov 15 2 Oct 15 Nov 14 United States 3 LPG and ethane Naphtha Motor gasoline Jet and kerosene Gasoil/diesel oil Residual fuel oil Other products Total Japan LPG and ethane Naphtha Motor gasoline Jet and kerosene Diesel Other gasoil Residual fuel oil Other products Total Germany LPG and ethane Naphtha Motor gasoline Jet and kerosene Diesel Other gasoil Residual fuel oil Other products Total Italy LPG and ethane Naphtha Motor gasoline Jet and kerosene Diesel Other gasoil Residual fuel oil Other products Total France LPG and ethane Naphtha Motor gasoline Jet and kerosene Diesel Other gasoil Residual fuel oil Other products Total United Kingdom LPG and ethane Naphtha Motor gasoline Jet and kerosene Diesel Other gasoil Residual fuel oil Other products Total Canada LPG and ethane Naphtha Motor gasoline Jet and kerosene Diesel Other gasoil Residual fuel oil Other products Total Demand, measured as deliveries from refineries and primary stocks, comprises inland deliveries, international bunkers and refinery fuel. It includes crude for direct burning, oil from non-conventional sources and other sources of supply. Jet/kerosene comprises jet kerosene and non-aviation kerosene. Gasoil comprises diesel, light heating oil and other gasoils. 2 Latest official OECD submissions (MOS). 3 US figures exclude US territories. Latest month vs. 9 FEBRUARY

18 TABLES INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY - OIL MARKET REPORT Table 3: World Oil Production Table 3 WORLD OIL PRODUCTION (million barrels per day) Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 Nov 15 Dec 15 Jan 16 OPEC Crude Oil Saudi Arabia Iran Iraq UAE Kuwait Neutral Zone Qatar Angola Nigeria Libya Algeria Ecuador Venezuela Indonesia Total Crude Oil Total NGLs Total OPEC NON-OPEC 2,3 OECD Americas United States Mexico Canada Chile Europe UK Norway Others Asia Oceania Australia Others Total OECD NON-OECD Former USSR Russia Others Asia China Malaysia India Others Europe Americas Brazil Argentina Colombia Others Middle East 2, Oman Syria Yemen Others Africa Egypt Gabon Others Total Non-OECD Processing gains Global Biofuels TOTAL NON-OPEC TOTAL SUPPLY Includes condensates reported by OPEC countries, oil from non-conventional sources, e.g. Venezuelan Orimulsion (but not Orinoco extra-heavy oil), and non-oil inputs to Saudi Arabian MTBE. 2 Other Asia excludes Indonesia throughout. Latin America excludes Ecuador throughout. Africa excludes Angola throughout. Total Non-OPEC excludes all countries that were members of OPEC at 1 January Total OPEC comprises all countries which were OPEC members at 1 January Comprises crude oil, condensates, NGLs and oil from non-conventional sources 4 Includes small amounts of production from Jordan and Bahrain. 5 Net volumetric gains and losses in refining and marine transportation losses FEBRUARY 2016

19 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY - OIL MARKET REPORT TABLES Table 4: OECD Industry Stocks and Quarterly Stock Changes Stocks on Land in Selected Countries Table 4 OECD INDUSTRY STOCKS 1 AND QUARTERLY STOCK CHANGES RECENT MONTHLY STOCKS 2 PRIOR YEARS' STOCKS 2 STOCK CHANGES in Million Barrels in Million Barrels in mb/d Aug2015 Sep2015 Oct2015 Nov2015 Dec2015* Dec2012 Dec2013 Dec2014 1Q2015 2Q2015 3Q2015 4Q2015 OECD Americas Crude Motor Gasoline Middle Distillate Residual Fuel Oil Total Products Total OECD Europe Crude Motor Gasoline Middle Distillate Residual Fuel Oil Total Products Total OECD Asia Oceania Crude Motor Gasoline Middle Distillate Residual Fuel Oil Total Products Total Total OECD Crude Motor Gasoline Middle Distillate Residual Fuel Oil Total Products Total OECD GOVERNMENT-CONTROLLED STOCKS 5 AND QUARTERLY STOCK CHANGES OECD Americas RECENT MONTHLY STOCKS 2 PRIOR YEARS' STOCKS 2 STOCK CHANGES in Million Barrels in Million Barrels in mb/d Aug2015 Sep2015 Oct2015 Nov2015 Dec2015* Dec2012 Dec2013 Dec2014 1Q2015 2Q2015 3Q2015 4Q2015 Crude Products OECD Europe Crude Products OECD Asia Oceania Crude Products Total OECD Crude Products Total * estimated 1 Stocks are primary national territory stocks on land (excluding utility stocks and including pipeline and entrepot stocks where known) and include stocks held by industry to meet IEA, EU and national emergency reserve commitments and are subject to government control in emergencies. 2 Closing stock levels. 3 Total products includes gasoline, middle distillates, fuel oil and other products. 4 Total includes NGLs, refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons. 5 Includes government-owned stocks and stock holding organisation stocks held for emergency purposes. 9 FEBRUARY

20 TABLES INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY - OIL MARKET REPORT Table 5 TOTAL STOCKS ON LAND IN OECD COUNTRIES 1 ('millions of barrels' and 'days') Table 5: Total Stocks on Land in OECD Countries End December 2014 End March 2015 End June 2015 End September 2015 Stock Days Fwd 2 Stock Days Fwd Stock Days Fwd Stock Days Fwd Stock Days Fwd Level Demand Level Demand Level Demand Level Demand Level Demand OECD Americas Canada Chile Mexico United States Total OECD Asia Oceania Australia Israel Japan Korea New Zealand Total OECD Europe 5 Austria Belgium Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Luxembourg Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic Slovenia Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom Total Total OECD DAYS OF IEA Net Imports Total Stocks are industry and government-controlled stocks (see breakdown in table below). Stocks are primary national territory stocks on land (excluding utility stocks and including pipeline and entrepot stocks where known) they include stocks held by industry to meet IEA, EU and national emergency reserves commitments and are subject to government control in emergencies. 2 Note that days of forward demand represent the stock level divided by the forward quarter average daily demand and is very different from the days of net imports used for the calculation of IEA Emergency Reserves. 3 End December 2015 forward demand figures are IEA Secretariat forecasts. 4 US figures exclude US territories. Total includes US territories. 5 Data not available for Iceland. 6 Reflects stock levels and prior calendar year's net imports adjusted according to IEA emergency reserve definitions (see Net exporting IEA countries are excluded. TOTAL OECD STOCKS CLOSING STOCKS Total Government 1 Industry Total Government 1 Industry controlled Millions of Barrels 4Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Includes government-owned stocks and stock holding organisation stocks held for emergency purposes. 2 Days of forward demand calculated using actual demand except in 4Q2015 (when latest forecasts are used). controlled Days of Fwd. Demand 2 End December FEBRUARY 2016

21 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY - OIL MARKET REPORT TABLES Table 6 IEA MEMBER COUNTRY DESTINATIONS OF SELECTED CRUDE STREAMS 1 Table 6: IEA Member Country Destinations (million barrels per day) of Selected Crude Streams Year Earlier Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 Sep 15 Oct 15 Nov 15 Nov 14 change Saudi Light & Extra Light Americas Europe Asia Oceania Saudi Medium Americas Europe Asia Oceania Iraqi Basrah Light 2 Americas Europe Asia Oceania Kuwait Blend Americas Europe Asia Oceania Iranian Light Americas Europe Asia Oceania Iranian Heavy 3 Americas Europe Asia Oceania Venezuelan 22 API and heavier Americas Europe Asia Oceania Mexican Maya Americas Europe Asia Oceania Canada Heavy Americas Europe Asia Oceania BFOE Americas Europe Asia Oceania Russian Urals Americas Europe Asia Oceania Kazakhstan Americas Europe Asia Oceania Libya Light and Medium Americas Europe Asia Oceania Nigerian Light 4 Americas Europe Asia Oceania Data based on monthly submissions from IEA countries to the crude oil import register (in '000 bbl), subject to availability. May differ from Table 8 of the Report. IEA Americas includes United States and Canada. IEA Europe includes all countries in OECD Europe except Estonia, Hungary and Slovenia. IEA Asia Oceania includes Australia, New Zealand, Korea and Japan. 2 Iraqi Total minus Kirkuk. 3 Iranian Total minus Iranian Light API and lighter (e.g., Bonny Light, Escravos, Qua Iboe and Oso Condensate). 9 FEBRUARY

22 TABLES INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY - OIL MARKET REPORT Table 7: Regional OECD Imports Table 7 REGIONAL OECD IMPORTS 1,2 (thousand barrels per day) Year Earlier Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 Sep 15 Oct 15 Nov 15 Nov 14 % change Crude Oil Americas % Europe % Asia Oceania % Total OECD % LPG Americas % Europe % Asia Oceania % Total OECD % Naphtha Americas % Europe % Asia Oceania % Total OECD % Gasoline 3 Americas % Europe % Asia Oceania % Total OECD % Jet & Kerosene Americas % Europe % Asia Oceania % Total OECD % Gasoil/Diesel Americas % Europe % Asia Oceania % Total OECD % Heavy Fuel Oil Americas % Europe % Asia Oceania % Total OECD % Other Products Americas % Europe % Asia Oceania % Total OECD % Total Products Americas % Europe % Asia Oceania % Total OECD % Total Oil Americas % Europe % Asia Oceania % Total OECD % 1 Based on Monthly Oil Questionnaire data submitted by OECD countries in tonnes and converted to barrels. 2 Excludes intra-regional trade. 3 Includes additives FEBRUARY 2016

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24 Editor Demand Non-OPEC Supply OPEC Supply and Prices Refining Stocks and Prices Freight, Financial Markets And Statistics Editorial Assistant Media Enquiries IEA Press Office Neil Atkinson +33 (0) Matt Parry +33 (0) Toril Bosoni +33 (0) Peg Mackey +33 (0) Neil Atkinson (ad interim) +33 (0) Andrew Wilson +33 (0) Valerio Pilia +33 (0) Deven Mooneesawmy +33 (0) (0) Subscription and Delivery Enquiries Oil Market Report Subscriptions International Energy Agency BP PARIS Cedex 15, France +33 (0) (0) User s Guide and Glossary to the IEA Oil Market Report For information on the data sources, definitions, technical terms and general approach used in preparing the Oil Market Report (OMR), Medium-Term Oil Market Report (MTOMR) and Annual Statistical Supplement (current issue of the Statistical Supplement dated 12 August 2015), readers are referred to the Users Guide at It should be noted that the spot crude and product price assessments are based on daily Argus prices, converted when appropriate to US$ per barrel according to the Argus specification of products (Copyright 2016 Argus Media Limited - all rights reserved). Next Issue: 11 March 2016