Impacts of contemporary changing climate on the geographical distribution of living organisms 5th IRSAE Summer School Bø 04-08/08/2014

Transcription

1 Ecologie et Dynamique des Systèmes Anthropisés FRE 3498 CNRS-UPJV Impacts of contemporary changing climate on the geographical distribution of living organisms 5th IRSAE Summer School Bø 04-08/08/2014 Photo: Jonathan Lenoir

2 Two recent meta-analyses on species range shits One for terrestrial organisms (Chen et al., 2011) One for marine organisms (Poloczanska et al., 2013) 1/22

3 Unidimensional & unidirectional range shifts? Living terrestrial & marine organisms are shifting toward the poles as climate warms (Chen et al., 2011; Poloczanska et al., 2013) A? What about plants? B Benthic invertebrates Fish Sea birds Phytoplankton Zooplankton The most vagile guys!!! Birds Mammals Arthropods (Odonata +++) Mollusks Not so vagile 2/22

4 Unidimensional & unidirectional range shifts? A recent study suggests horizontal (latitude & longitude) range shifts that are omni-directional for marine taxa (Pinsky et al., 2013) A B Lower range limit Range core Upper range limit 3/22

5 Unidimensional & unidirectional range shifts? Horizontal (latitude & longitude) range shifts are omni-directional too for terrestrial vascular plants (Groom, 2013) Scotland Northern England Wales Direction of range shifts from movements of the center of mass among declining species Southern England 4/22

6 Unidimensional & unidirectional range shifts? Vertical (elevation/depth) range shifts are not necessarily unidirectional (upward/bottomward) (Lenoir et al., 2010) Expected proportion of species shifting downward as climate warms due to random processes alone x Observed proportion of species shifting downward is 30% (p<0.05) 5/22

7 Unidimensional & unidirectional range shifts? Downward range shifts involve complex interactions between temperature & precipitation changes (Crimmins et al., 2011) Required shift in elevation (m) -88 m (p=0.016) Observed changing climate in California Expected elevational range shifts under precipitation & temperature changes 6/22

8 Where & how to look for species range shifts? Tracking positions of the edges of species distribution (Lagrangian): leading & trailing edges (Brommer et al., 2012) The trailing edge of Arctic Birds or northern species (n=34) +1,1 km/yr (p<0.001) +0,7 km/yr (p=0.037) The leading edge of Central European Birds or southern species (n=114) 7/22

9 Where & how to look for species range shifts? Tracking positions of the core of species distribution (Lagrangian): optimum or center of mass (Lenoir et al., 2008) B A +3.7 m/yr (p<0.001) Woody plants (n=56) +0.9 m/yr (n.s.) Herbaceous plants (n=115) 8/22

10 Where & how to look for species range shifts? Tracking the flow of individuals at a given location within the species distribution (Euclidian): abundance (Atkinson et al., 2004) 9/22

11 Multifaceted analyses needed Many meta-analyses on the topic but strong biases: unidimensional (latitude, longitude or elevation/depth) unidirectional (poleward or upward/bottomward) univariate (leading edge, trailing edge, optimum or abundance) Need for a review & synthesis identifying: geographic regions where we lack information taxonomic groups for which we need more data methodological approaches that we should be using In other words, where, what and how should we be looking next? 10/22

12 Materials Extensive review on geographical patterns of species range shifts under contemporary climate change (Lenoir & Svenning, 2014): 11/22

13 Methods Digitalization of the total study area for 212 out of 245 publications (Lenoir & Svenning, 2014): 123 references for terrestrial ecosystems 89 references for marine ecosystems Lenoir et al. (2008) Pinsky et al. (2013) 12/22

14 Methods Extraction of biological (ECO, TAX, N), spatial (XMIN, XMAX, XEXT, YMIN, YMAX, YEXT, AREA) and temporal (START, END, DUR) data for each of the 212 reviewed publications (Lenoir & Svenning, 2014): ( ) 13/22

15 Methods Check for each of the 212 reviewed publications which geographic dimensions (LON, LAT, E/D) & distribution parameters (LE, TE, O, A) were studied for tracking range shifts (Lenoir & Svenning, 2014): ( ) 14/22

16 Methods Constrained Correspondence Analysis (CCA) on the former matrix (0/1) with biological, spatial and temporal data as predictors 15/22

17 Geographic shortfalls Publication effort (N) per terrestrial biome (WWF) Mind the tropical biomes 16/22

18 Geographic shortfalls Publication effort (N) per marine realm (WWF) Mind the Indo-Pacific realms 17/22

19 Taxonomic and methodological shortfalls Biplot (a) and correlation circle (b) from the CCA 17% of the total inertia 65% of the total inertia 18/22

20 Take home messages A working agenda for studying climate-related range shifts: increasing research efforts on distribution changes in the tropics focusing on lowland range shifts for terrestrial plants investigating bathymetric range shifts for marine plants looking for distribution changes of prokaryotic organisms using multifaceted approaches (multidimensional & multivariate) running expected range shifts based on local climate velocities 19/22

21 Abundance Take home messages Always compare observed vs. expected range shifts Observed range shift Actual persistence Actual movement Expected range shift Latitude/longitude/elevation/depth 20/22

22 Species Persistence Rate (SPR) Take home messages Always compare observed vs. expected range shifts Crash Lean Expand Extinct Retract March Species Movement Rate (SMR) 21/22

23 More Ecography 22/22