Future Directions for Coupled Human and Natural Systems Research

Transcription

1 CHAPTER 19 Future Directions for Coupled Human and Natural Systems Research Jianguo Liu, Vanessa Hull, Zhiyun Ouyang, and Hemin Zhang 19.1 Introduction The world is facing unprecedented challenges, such as climate change, land-use change, human population increase, disease spread, food shortage, and social unrest (Future Earth, 2014, Liu et al., 2015, Reid et al., 2010, United Nations, 2014). With new challenges emerging every day, coupled human and natural systems (CHANS) are in constant flux. These challenges affect both humans and nature in complex ways, often destabilizing the balance between the two. In order to understand and manage such dynamic systems for global sustainability, CHANS research needs to be constantly improving and building on past findings over long-term time frames. Now is an exciting time for coupled systems research, with many new advances on the horizon for the future development. But several improvements are needed to be more integrative (Liu et al., 2015). For example, research to date has tended to be conducted over short-term time frames, over limited spatial extents, and without a strong connection to policy and practice. Recent advances in individual fields such as computer science (e.g., big data approaches) have yet to be fully embraced in coupled systems research. Research on coupled systems needs to grow and evolve to be more informative to address pressing sustainability issues. After conducting 20 years of coupled systems research in Wolong Nature Reserve, we have learned a great deal about our model system and coupled systems in general. The model coupled systems approach that we outlined in Chapter 2 proved worthwhile because it gave us the opportunity to delve deeply into the economic, environmental, political, and cultural context of a specific case in detail over a long-term time frame. As illustrated in Chapter 18, this approach led to a number of broadly applicable lessons. These include lessons on CHANS theories, research methods, drivers of change and system vulnerability, and application of research to management and outreach. Nonetheless, in many ways we feel that we are just getting started and may have uncovered only the tip of a large iceberg. Our hope is to continue to use Wolong as a laboratory to inform and elevate global coupled systems research to a new level. In this chapter, we outline several areas of future research for more systems integration. Here we define systems integration as holistic approaches to integrating various components of coupled systems at organizational, spatial, and temporal scales (Liu et al., 2015). Areas of improvement include (1) longer-term research, (2) more cross-component integration, (3) tighter integration across multiple spatial scales, (4) exploration of spillover systems, (5) development of better tools, and (6) translation of research results into policy and practice (Figure 19.1; Liu et al., 2015). Throughout this chapter, we use ideas and plans for future research in our model system as an example to illustrate how to pursue research in these areas. Advances in these areas would allow coupled systems research to make significant contributions to addressing global sustainability challenges. Pandas and People. Edited by Jianguo Liu, Vanessa Hull, Wu Yang, Andrés Viña, Xiaodong Chen, Zhiyun Ouyang, and Hemin Zhang. Oxford University Press Published 2016 by Oxford University Press.

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3 266 PANDAS AND PEOPLE Karesh et al., 2005). The coupled systems framework also can help to evaluate policies that are not working as they were intended by illuminating complex human nature interactions that produce unintended consequences. For example, as a result of land-use change, policies promoting biofuels have increased CO 2 emissions in some places despite their intended goal to have the inverse effect (Searchinger et al., 2008). This surprising effect occurred due to unanticipated land-use changes (e.g., conversion of grassland to crops) to make way for biofuels. The coupled systems research community can also initiate dialogue about ways to restructure institutions so they are better equipped to address increasing threats to global sustainability (Liu et al., 2013a). This restructuring may include ways to better account for interactions and feedbacks between people and nature, such as by creating new interdisciplinary departments or interagency working groups. In addition, coupled systems researchers can help strategize ways to design institutions that are better integrated across space and time. Ostrom (2012) first championed the idea of polycentric institutions to alleviate threats that are nested within different levels of a system. For instance, connecting the hierarchical structure of organizations (e.g., at national, regional, and local levels) could help account for telecouplings among distant coupled systems. Such systems may be managed by different agencies that may not otherwise communicate with one another effectively (Chapter 17). Furthermore, institutions can be made more flexible so that they can adapt to new human nature interactions and feedbacks that emerge over time, such as climate change and emerging infectious diseases. In Wolong, we hope to further strengthen our existing relationships with stakeholders in the future so we may continue to generate research results that are not only theoretically interesting but also practical for planning and policy making. It would be worthwhile for us to initiate roundtable discussions with stakeholders to identify their concerns and information needs for future planning so we can design studies and scenario analyses that directly address these needs. In turn, we could share our findings, and nuanced uncertainties and surprises in our data that may be important for decision- making. Examples might include a sudden threshold of fuelwood collection impacts or a surprising twist in practices of raising livestock. Codesign, coproduction, and coimplementation could also help assess functionality and efficiency of various administrative departments (e.g., tourism, agricultural, and natural resource management departments) to improve communication and collaboration. They would be useful in finding ways in which different departments could build off one another and avoid conflicts regarding sustainability goals Summary Future development in several areas is needed for the science of coupled human and natural systems (CHANS) to grow to new heights. Longer-term research is crucial to help explicate complexities such as feedbacks and time lags in coupled systems. More cross-component integration can help draw linkages between more diverse sectors of coupled systems through human nature nexus approaches such as the food energy water nexus. Another area of future research is the need for tighter integration across multiple spatial scales. Spillover systems are particularly understudied and deserve special attention. Better tools are key to tackling the challenges in coupled systems research. For example, cloud computing and massively parallel processing can accommodate big data needs and the development of Digital CHANS for whole system experiments. Furthermore, future research on coupled systems should place greater emphasis on new ways of translating research results into policy and practice through working even closer with stakeholders to codesign, cocreate, and coimplement research and management measures. This transdisciplinary approach will allow opportunities to develop new theories, prepare for uncertainties, and anticipate unintended effects of policies. Research on these diverse themes will enrich our understanding of our model coupled system (Wolong Nature Reserve) and other coupled systems, and take us in new directions as we continue to unravel additional layers of complexity in human nature interactions. By doing so, we hope to help lead the field of coupled systems research into the next era of transdisciplinary research for sustainability across local to global levels.

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