APPLICATION OF GARIN-LOWRY MODEL

Transcription

1 CHAPTER IV APPLICATION OF GARIN-LOWRY MODEL 4.1 INTRODUCTION Having seen in the preceding chapters the spatial distribution of industries, employment and residences of the workers, form and pattern of home-work relations and influences of home-work relations, this chapter now turns to the application of Gain-Lowry Model to the study area with the help of the data collected from secondary, documentary sources and through the interviews using the pre-designed questionnaire. This chapter first highlights the structure of the Garin-Lowry Model as given in Lee (1973), secondly analyses population, employment and transport network represented by travel distances, time and cost between the zones of the study area and thirdly calibrates the model and interprets the model results and finally brings out findings of the model. 4.2 STRUCTURE OF THE GARIN-LOWRY MODEL. The model used in this study is mainly based on the Lowry model of a metropolitan city with improved version given by Garin and thus is the name of Garin-Lowry model. Lowry model has generated more interest than any other single urban model, as it has been widely used and has introduced two major innovations into the urban modelling research. First, it incorporated within its structure both a forecasting and an allocation procedure and second It related

2 67 three elements of the urban system together within a single general model frame work. The model takes three major components of a city, namely, population, employment and the means of transport between them, i.e., the transport network as represented by journey times, and describes the interaction between them and that these interactions determine urban change by allocating population and employment across the various zones of the city. The levels of activities in the Lowry model are determined by the economic base method. In the model, all activities in the city are divided into three groups a basic sector, a service sector and a household sector. BASIC SECTOR This sector includes manufacturing industries! large and medium scale) and whole sale business and trade, higher order administrative activities and services whose locations are assumed to be unconstrained by the local site solution and their employment levels are primarily dependent on events outside the local economy. Their products and services are largely consumed and experienced by non-locals. SERVICE SECTOR The service sector associates with all those service activities trade and commerce, administrative function, service functions and others which are directly dependent on the local population. The locations of those activities are constrained by the probtems of access to the local residents. Their employment levels are closely related to local population growth and basic sector.

3 68 HOUSEHOLD SECTOR. This sector consists of the resident populations the alie of whioh in the city is largely influenced by the distribution and level of employment at any given time. The residential population and its sites development are largely influenced by the locations of the residents' workplaces. The distinction between population dependent on basic employment and service employment is central to the way in which both the forecasting and the locational parts of the model operate and it will be useful to observe how the proportions of the economic base method are expressed in equation form. If economic activity in an urban area is measured by the number of people employed, then the total employment consists of (a) those people employed in basic sector and (b) those people employed in service sector. If the total employment is represented by E, basic employment by B and service employment by S, then we can say E = B + S (1) Planners and policy-makers are interested with relationship between levels of economic activity and population levels. At any one time a given number of total jobs, E. will support a certain number of people, P. The number of people supported by one job is represented by the symbol, «then P =oc E (2) oc is considered as a population multiplier expressing the ratio of total population (P) to total employment (I). It Is found at any one time by dlreoting the total population P by total employment (E) as shown below: oc = P/E (31

4 69 The distinotion with which the Lowry model is based is between population that is dependent on basic employment and that dependent upon service employment. Therefore, the equation that expresses population in terms of basic and service employment rather than total employment and B + S is substituted for E which becomes P =oc (B + S! (4) In other words, population is some function of (<*> of basic plus service employment and thus (4) is rewritten as P = oc B + oc S (8) i in which B is the population dependent on basic employment and 8 is the populations dependent on service employment The important aspect for the operation of Lowry model is the level of service employment determined by the level of population. As population is some function of total employment, service employment Is also a function of total population and thus S=p P (6) P is thought of as a population - serving ratio a factor which expresses the amount of service employment which will be demanded or supported by a given population. It is the ratio of service employment to total population and thus the value of p is found as shown below: P = S/P (7) Given values for a and p and cc a forecast of the number of basic jobs, the population dependent on basic employment is found by multiplying the number of basic jobs by the population multiplier. In other words if B is the number of basic jobs, and PCI) is the population dependent on basic employment, then

5 70 P(1) = oc B (8) This population will indeed generate a demand for and ia capable of supporting a number of jobs in service sector and thus the number of servloe jobs demanded by the basic population is P{1) as follows: D(1) = pp(1) (9) These service sector workers will themselves have dependent population and if we call this dependent population P{2), thus we get P(2) = oc D (1) This additional population will itself generate a demand for servloe employment D(2) so that. D(2) =p P(2) The latest increment of service employment D(2) will have its own dependent population (P{3)) and this in turn will generate another increment of service employment and so on. In fact each increment of servloe employment and service dependent population becomes smaller and smaller until they become insignificant. The sum of the increments of service employment (D( 1) + D(2)) = d(3) D(N) represents the total forecast service employment and the sum of the increments of population is the total service dependent population. The planner's role is not only with changes in the levels of employment and population but also with the possible alternative locations of these activities within the urban area. With the location of employment of basic sector and or changes in industrial locations, the problem is of identifying where the population would reside in relation to the employment opportunities provided. In the original Lowry

6 71 model, population was distributed using a potential model in which the amount of population allocated to any one zone was determined by the sum of the inter-zonal potentials for that zone, that is, Pj (10) Where Pj is the amount of population allocated to j Ei is basic employment In i dij is a trip index reflecting the impedanoe or deterrence factor between i and j G is a scaling factor to ensure that Ipj is oqual to the total population growth forecast (P) j The much used version of the Lowry model is based on the adaptations suggested by Garin (1966) who used measures of interaction based on the gravity model. According to Garin-Lowry Model, in the residential activity system, population is distributed from workplaces by calculating the probability of interaction between any two zones and multiplying the probability of interaction by the amount of activity to be allocated. This Is also on the basis of the single- constrained gravity model as shown below: Tij = EiAiPj dij'1 (11) Where Ei is the total amount of activity to be allocated from zone j. Tij is the amount of activity allocated from zone i to zone j. The expression AiPj dij'1 ( where Ai (I Pjdij1 ) 1 J=1 (12) is the probability of interaction between zones i and j, with Pj being s measure of the attraction of zone. The total number of workers living In any one zona j Is

7 72 therefore n ETij i=l The total amount of population living in any zone then becomes n Pj = <* Tij i=l or in other words, the number of workers living in zone j multiplied by the population multiplier ( c) In all applications, the measure of the attraction of any zone which has been incorporated Is the existing population. If the existing population in zone j is represented by Pj, the residential location component of the Garin-Lowry model is as follows Tij = Ai Ei Pj di, b (13) where Ai = (I Pj dij-b m (14) j It is suggested that the model is concerned not only with the total workers and total population, but also with the basic and service workers and therefore with the population dependent on basic jobs and population dependent on service jobs. With the suggestion made by Garin, most applications of the model take this distinction into account by integrating the economic base and the allocation procedure. This is achieved by operating the residential location component of the model, first for only basic employees. The location of basic employment is an input to the model. The first operation within the model is then to allocate these basic employees to zones using the gravity model as described above. The general structure and sequanoe of oaloulations of the model are illustrated in Figure 1.1

8 73 The procedures followed in the application of the Qarln-Lowry model are stated in the Introductory chapter. The computer program for the calibration is programmed in BASIC. Moat of the computer time used In the study was utilized for preparing the necessary input of the model and for debugging the program. The BASIC calibration program takes about 10 minutes for each run (including printing) on an IBM PC/AT. 4.3 DIVISIONS AND THEIR CHARACTERISTICS DIVISIONS OF THE STUDY AREA In order to build the model, the study area of MMA. has been divided into a number of zones to be used as sub-areas. The size and shape of these zones were constrained by the availability of input data necessary for calibrating the model. The data on employment have been obtained by the places of work from secondary sources such as records of government departments and organisations. The locations of residences of workers and employees have been obtained from selected industrial units which have maintained details on workers' residences such as residential addresses and family particulars of the workers. Behavioural characterisation of the workers in terms of their travel has been obtained through the sample survey done at the work places Taking census divisions in the city of Madras and Villages outside the city, the entire MMA was divided into 17 zones on the basis of concentration of workplaces and homogeneity in the socio-eoonomic characteristics of the residential population in the zones. Figure 4.1 shows the number and names of zones of the study area. Ayyanavaram-Anna Nagar, Perambur, Royapuram-Washermenpet, Vepery-Purasawalkam, Triplloane-Royapettah,

9 74 Figure 4.1 Number and names oi zones of NMA 1. Ennore-Manali-Thiruvottriyur 2. Madhavaram 3. Avadi 4. Ambattur 5. Ayanavaram-Anna Nagar 6. Perambur 7. Rayapuram-Washermenpet 8. Vepery-Purasawalkam 9. Triplicane-Royapettah 10. Saidapet-T Nagar 11. Valasarawalkam-Maduravoyal 12. Poonthamalle-Kunrathur 13. Tambaram 14. Alandur-Pallavaram 15. Adyar-Guindy 16. Mandaveli-Mylapore 17. Perungudi-Injambakkam

10 75 Saidapet T.Nagar, Adyar-Guindy and Mandaveli-Mylapore are nlty mnea, while Ennore-Manali-Thiruvottriyur, Madhavaram, Avadl, Ambattur, Valasarawalkam-Madhuravayal, Poonthamallee-Kunrathur, Tambaram, Alandur-Pallavaram and Perungudi-lnjambakkam are metropolitan zones. The total area covered under all the seventeen zones Is q. km. Using the land use map of MMA, approximately areas under residential, commercial, industrial and other uses were calculated and showed in table 4.1. The proportion of areas under residential use was large in the oily zones than in jthe peripheral zones. Between the zones, the proportion varied from per cent in Adyar-Guindy zone to per cent in Saidapet-T.Nagar In the city limits and 8.76 per cent in Ambattur zone to per cent in Alandur-Pallavaram zone of periphery of MMA. Proportion of area under commercial use was large in all city zones excepting Adyar-Guindy and Mandaveli-Mylapore zones of the city and Madhavaram and Alandur Pallavaram in the periphery of MMA. The proportion of area under industrial use was large in the city,zones of Ayyanavaram-Anna Nagar, Perambur, Royapuram Waahermenpet and the zones of Ennore-Manali-Thiruvottriyur, Madhavaram, Avadl, Ambattur, Valasarawalkam-Madhuravayal,and Alandur-Pallavaram in the periphery of MMA. Table 4.2 illustrates population and density variation across the zones during 1981 and The 1991 population (estimated) in the zones varied from 1,29,000 (zone 2) to 7,47,000(zone 10). As census population 1991 was not available division/villagewise, 1991 census population at dlvlslon/vlllage level was estimated by using decennial growth rate of to arrive at population at division/village level for 1991 and this population was then aggregated at zonal level. The residential density in Vepery-Purasawalkam within

11 76 Table 4.1 Zonewise area under oifierent land uses Zone % ut area under ianduses to total area ut zone lutai Residential Comnercial Industrial Others area m sq.km b. 7 b b b bb b b b b Ufa 0.1b b bb. 9b b b i.b< 3l total bi5 OZ bource: Master plan ianduse map Ennore-Manali-Thiruvottriyur 2. Madhavaram 3. Avadi 4. Ambattur 5. Ay anavaram-anna Nagar 6. Perambur 7. Rayapuram-Washermenpet 8. Vepery-Purasawalkam 9. Triplicane-Royapettah (unpublished) by nmja. 10. Saidapet-T Nagar 11. Valasarawalkam-Maduravoyal 12. Poonthamalle-Kunrathur 13. Tambaram 14. Alandur-Pallavaram 15. Adyar-Guindy 16. Mandaveli-Mylapore 17. Perungudi-Injambakkam

12 77 'table 4.2 Zonewise population and density oi to.to.a Zone Area in Population (in'000) Gross Residential Sq.km density/ density/ hectarei hectare^ lib b b 273 bl b V b n b 2b j.4 ± ±22 14 bb lb b Total Source:: Compiled by the author iron) 1981 census. Gross density is obtained by dividing the total population 11991) by total area. Residential density is obtained by dividing the total population (1991) by the area under residential use.

13 78 the city limits is the highest(848 per ha.) as this tone is almost low Income families dominated area. The least residential density!98 per ha.) Is observed in zone of Valasarawalkam-Maduravayal. The highest residential density (B87 persons per ha.) outside the city limits is found in Ambattur zone and lowest density (98 persons per ha) in Valasarawalkam-Maduravoyal zone ESTIMATES OF BASIC AND SERVICE EMPLOYMENT The total employment is the most important Input of the model and is classified into basic and service categories. Their estimates are by place of work. In this study, the interviews were held at the places of work and workers were interviewed to reoord the details of residential location, occupational status, income, mode, cost end their time of travel from residence to workplaces, residential mobility, etc. This survey at selected workplaces could give the spatial distribution of workers by places of work and by places of residence. 1n some cases, the places of work of the workers like autoricksha drivers, rickshaw pullers, street vendors, construction worker could not be definite, as their place of work is anywhere in the study area. Such workers are assessed and distributed among the zones in proportion to the total number of workers working in these zones. The broad groups of employment are two, namely, basic and service employment could not be done directly. National Classification of Occupation and Industry(NCOI) classifies each worker's employment by occupation and industry. However, the occupation or the industry coded is not entirely determined as basic and service For example, according to NCOI, a teaoher coded by occupation as 'teachers' and by industry as 'Education', scientific and research services'. Irrespective of whahter he or she was a teaoher in a primary

14 79 school or in the universityftewari, 1978). Thus, the classification of employment into basic and service categories is necessiatad. The basic category is therefore inclusive of higher order services such as higher education and research institutions. The service employment is further classified Into three categories as this employment serves different spatial unit cum living styles of the people. These three categories of service sector employment are (1) neighbourhood facilities, (ii) local facilities and (iii) metropolitan facilities. Table 4.3 presents the various categories under each one of the broad categories of basic and service sectors. Table Various categories of basic and service sector BASIC SECTOR i) Manufacturing ii) iii) iv) v vi vii Wholesale and heavy commercial Utilities, communications, transportation excepting local transport services such as city service, autorickshaw etc. Head offices of administrative and legal services, financial Institutions Hospitals, colleges, Universities and research institutions Large scale hotels Fishing, agriculture and mining. SERVICE SECTOR: 1. Neighbourhood Faolllties: i) Provisional and patty shops ii) iii) iv) Chemists and druggists Personal services such as laundry, saloons and tailoring. Lower and upper primary schools.

15 80 2. Looal Facilities 1) Eating, drinking placet like raatauranta, hotala and bart. ii) iii) iv) Health and medical service*, private and public Welfare and religous services Finance and Insurance services of local nature v) Departmental and general merchandises vi) vii) viii) ix) Variety and other retail outlets Automobile and cycle repair services Real estate services Qas traders x) Building construction xi) xii) xiii) xiv) xv) Post offices Secondary schools Petrol and diesel bunks Electricity board cash counters Auto rickshaw and taxi stand 3. Metropolitan Faollltias i) Sale agency offices and large photo studios ii) iii) iv) Lodging Theatres, cultural and music halls Corporation, water supply, E.B. v) Pallavan transport services vi) vii) Public library undergraduate oolleges. Table 4.4 shows basic and service employment In each zone of the

16 81 study area. The total employment of the study area was estimated as 10,81,201 (3,32,918 basic and 7,48,332 sarvioas). The basic-service employment ratio worked out to 1:2.25. The population was 5 43 million and thus the worker - dependent ratio worked out to 1:5.02. The break up of service employment into employment in neighbourhood, local and metropolitan areas was in the ratio of 1:00:6.12:0.35. Table 4.5 presents the verlotions in the distribution of basic and service workers per sq km and per 1,000 population. On an average, 448 workers per sq. km and 61 workers per 1,000 persons were observed in the basic employment while 1,008 workers per sq.km, and 138 workers per 1,000 persons were observed in the service elector in the sutdy area. The zones which have a large number of basin workers per 1000 population against average of 61 are Ennore-Manall Thlruvoltrlyurl 11, Ambattur(4) Triplicane-Royapettah(9), Adyar-Guindy (15). Pnontharnallee Kunrathur(12), has least number of basic workers i.e., 19 per 1000 population while the Ambattur zone(4) which is an industrial node has the largest of the basic workers, at 196 workers per 1000 population. The zones which have larger service workers against average of 136 workers per 1000 are Valasarvakkam - Maduravoyal (303), Ayyanavaram Anna Nagar<238), Triplicane Royapettah(176), Saidapet - T nagar(172), Adyar Guindy (170), Mandaveli Mylapore (161), Porungudi - Injambakkand 58) and Madhavaram (148). The city zones, namely, Perambur and Royapuram Waahermenpet and Vepery - Purasawalkam are poorly served with service workers, while In the Madras Urban Agglomeration, Poonthamalle - Kunrathur (34 service workers per 1000 population) Avadi (18) Ennore - Manali - Tiruvottrlyur (87), and

17 82 Table 4.4 Zonewise estimated number oi workers by employment type in Madras Metropolitan Area (in *00) Zone Basic Service lotal Neighbourhood Local Metropolitan Service lb b bb b Total Source: Compiled 8 assessed by the author. 1. Ennore-Manali-lhiruvottriyur 2. Madhavaram 3. Avadi 4. Ambattur 5. Ayanavaram-Anna Nagar 6. Perambur 7. Rayapuram-Wa shermenpe t 8. Vepery-Purasawa1kam 9. Triplicane-Royapet tah 10. Saidapet-T Nagar 11. Va1a sa rawa1kam-maduravoya1 12. Poonthamalle-Kunrathur 13. Tambaram 14. Alandur-Pallavaram 15. Adyar-Guindy 16. Mandaveli-Mylapore 17. Perungudi-Injambakkam

18 83 Table 4.5 Zonewise basic and service workers per sq.km, of area and per 1000 population Zone Number of basic workers Number oi service workers Area in Sq.km. Per Sq.km Per 1000 Per sq.km, population Per 1000 popula tion o b b ' Total Source: Compiled and estimated by the author. 1. Ennore-Manali-Thiruvottriyur 2. Madhavaram 3. Avadi 4. Anbattur 5. Ayanavaram-Anna Nagar 6. Perambur 7. Rayapuram-Wa shermenpe t 8. Vepery-Purasawalkam 9. Triplicane-Royapettah 10. Saidapet-T Nagar 11. Valasarawalkam-Maduravoyal 12. Poonthamalle-Kunrathur 13. Tambaram 14. Alandur-Pallavaram 15. Adyar-Guindy 16. Ma ndave1i-my 1apore 17. Perungudi-Injambakkam

19 84 Alandur-Pallavaram are poorly serviced with servic workers. It is noticed that not only industrial zones outside the city are served poorly with servioe workers, but also some of the city zones which are a part of the inner core of the olty. The fact is indicated thus that all city zones are also not properly served with service workers and at the same time nor are all metropolitan zones laoklng service workers. The sub-categorization of service workers at neighbourhood, local and metropolitan level as observed from Table 4.6 shows that there are glaring disparities between zones in the number of service workers per 1000 population. The average number of service workers as a whole for the study area per 1000 population is 18, 113 and 7 at neighbourhood, local and metopolitan level respectively. Within the city zones. Ayyanavaram- Anna Nagar, Perambur Royapuram- Washermenpet, Vepery - Purasawalkam, Saidapat T Nagar and Mandaveli - Mylapore are below the average number of service workers at Metropolitan level. Trlpllcane Royapettah is above the averge and Adyar Guindy zone matches with the average. In the metropolitan area., excepting Madhavaram and Tambaram all other zones are below the averge number of workers per 1000 people at metropolitan level. The highest number of metropolitan level service workers per 1000 population is found in zones of Tambaram (28), Triplicane- Royapettah (13) and Madhavaramd 3) while the zone served with least number of service worker is Poonthamalle Kunrathurd). In the case of local level service workers, the city zones that have above averge(113 service workers per 1000 po;ulation) are Ayyanavaram Annanagar(208), Perambur (117), Triplloane Royapettahd 38). Baldapet T. Nagar(147), Adyar- Guindy (139) and Mandaveli - Mylapore(140). Metropolitan

20 85 Table 4.6 Zonewise service employees per 1000 population Zone ol Service employee per 1000 population Total workplace Neighbourhood Loca 1 Metropolitan b lib ( Total source: Compiled and computed by the author 1. Ennore-Manali-Thiruvottriyur 2. Madhavaram 3. Avadi 4. Ambattur 5. Ayanavaram-Anna Nagar 6. Perambur 7. Rayapuram-Washermenpet 8. Vepery-Pura sawa1kam 9. Triplicane-Royapettah 10. Saidapet-T Nagar 11. Valasarawalkam-Maduravoyal 12. Poon thama11e-kunra thur 13. Tambaram 14. Alandur-Pallavaram 15. Adyar-Guindy 16. Mandaveli-Mylapore 17. Perungudi-1njambakkam

21 86 zones are Valasaravalkam-Maduravoyal (240) and Perungudl - Injambakkam (142), whlla those oity iones below average are 7(100) and 0(107) and metropolitan zones are 1(02), 2(100), 4(02), 12(20), 11(07) and 14(70). It la noticed that metropolitan zonea excepting zones 11 and 17 are poorly served with local service workers and only two city zones (7 and 0 ) that are looated In the north of MMA are poorly served with local service employment. As far as employment at neighbourhood is conoerned, the olty zones that are above averge (18) service workers per 1000 population are those of Ayyanavaram - Anna nagar (27), Triplioane - Royapettah (20), 8aidapst - T. Nagar (18) and Adyar - Qulndy (25) and below average are those In zonea of Permbur (12), Royapuram - Waahermenpet (9), Vspsry - Purasawalkam (17) and Mandavell Mylapore (17). Metropolitan zonea that are above average are thoae of 2(38), 4(28) and 11(00) and below average are thoae of 1(10), 3(7), 12(0), 14(15) and 17(15). The spatial distribution of employment, both basic and aervloe sectors, presented in Table 4.0 and 4.8 shows that It is not squally distributed with respect to area and population. Unequal distribution Is glaring In respeot of population than area. The inner city zones (8 to B) have greater aervioe employment but zone 9 has above average of the study area. While the outer city zones 10, 15 and 16 possess above average employment, that the aervloe sector activities gravitate to the outer zones owing primarily to spaoe cost. Only two inner periphery zonea (2 and 11) have greater aervloe employment than average while all the outer peripheral zones are poorly served with aervloe employment. The inner oity zones (0,7,0,8) have highest concentration of both basic and service employmet, in terms of area. While the area of inner oity

22 87 zones accounts of 8 per cent of the total area of the study area, It has 33 per ' cent of the basic employment and 33.4 per cent of the servloe employment. The outer city zones (B,10, 16 and 16) account for 2B.7 per cent of basic employment and 40 per cent of service employment when it's area Is only 13.8 per cent. The inner peripheral zones (1,2,4,11,14 and 17) house 33.8 per cent of basic workers and 21.8 per oent of service employment in its area of 40.6 per cent. The area of outer peripheral zone (3,12,13) is 37.6 per cent but of basic and service employment are 7.B and 5 per cent, respectively, It is thus noticed that the service employment Is least concentrated in the outer peripheral zones having settlements such as Tambaram, Avadi and Poonthamallee. The concentration ratio (Lorenz) in the spatial distribution of basic and service employment with respect to area are and respectively. It is thus generally observed that the inequality in the spatial distribution of employment is high for basic workers and low for service workers The pattern of distribution of employment with respect to the distribution of population shows that about 33 per cent of basic workers are concentrated in inner city zones (6,7,8 and 9 ) wherein 33.8 per cent of the total population of the study area is distributed. The outer olty zones B, 10, 18 and 15 with 30.4 per cent of the total population account for 28.7 percent of the basic workers. The inner peripheral zones, 1,2,4,11,14 and 17 with 23.7 per cent population possess 33.8 per cent basic workers, as these zones are by and largely are industrial zones. The outer zones 3, 12 and 13 with 12.4 per cent population have 7.8 per oent of the basic workers. As a whole, the spatial distribution of both the basic and service workers In the study area Is rather concentrated with inequalities in its distribution. Further, the magnitude of concentration declines from the inner city zones to the outer peripheral zones

23 88 with reapeot to the area and population DISTRIBUTION OP WORKERS BY INCOME GROUPS The average income of the workers of the both basic and service sector is Rs.1124 per month. As observed from Table 4.7, the monthly income varies from one zone to another. Zone 4 (Ambattur industrial area ) has the highest monthly income of Rs.1,386 and zone 12 (Poonthamalle Kunrathur > has the least monthly inoome of Rs.812. As a whole the distribution of workers by broad income groups reveals that 47.8 per cent of the total workers in the study area have an income less than Rs. 1,600 per month, 40 4 per cent earns between Rs.1,500 and 3,000 and 11.8 per cent earns moffo than Rs Generally, the zones 4 (Ambattur Industrial zone), and 10 (Saldapet T.Nagar with high proportion of high income residential area), 11 (Valasarawalkam Madurvoyal industrial cum-residential area) and 16 (residential area) are different from the rest of the zones. The former zones are with a least proportion of workers falling in the income group below Rs. 1,600 and with a high proportion of workers with greater income RESIDENCES AND JOURNEY TO WORK. People choose a particular location to live in. The factors responsible for the location of residence by the people are manifold. Decisions on the location of their residence depend upon a single factor or a combination of factors such as nearness to workplace, own house, shopping facilities, educational facilities, low rent area, accessibility to transport and social factors. Among these factors, distanoe to workplace plays a vital role, particularly among the workers. Of the workers surveyed, 26.8 per cent

24 89 Table 4.7 Zonewise percentage classes distribution of workers by income Zone Percentage of workers income class in monthly of Rs Above 3000 Number of workers (in *00) Average b lobfa Total Source: Estimated by the author. 1. Ennore-Manali-Thiruvottriyur 2. Madhavaram 3. Avadi 4. Ambattur 5. Ayanavaram-Anna Nagar 6. Perambur 7. Rayapuram-VI/ashermenpet 8. Vepery-Purasawalkam 9. Triplicane-Royapettah 10. Saidapet-T Nagar 11. Valasarawalkam-Maduravoyal 12. Poonthamalle-Kunrathur 13. Tambaram 14. Alandur-Pallavaram 15. Adyar-Guindy 16. Mandaveli-Mylapore 17. Perungudi-Inj ambakkam

25 90 mentioned accessibility to transport facilities, 17.9 per cent own house, 15.7 per cent nearneaa to workplace, 15.3 per cent family relations, 13.6 per cent low rent area, and 11.8 per cent facilities as the faotors responsible for residential location preference. Of the sample workers interviewed, 21.1 per cent travelled a distance of less than a kilometer for work from their residences, 24.9 per cent between 1 and 2.9 km, 17.2 per cent between 3 and 4.9 km, 13.6 per cent between 5 and 6.9 km, 7.1 per cent between 7 and 9.9 km, 10.8 per oent from 10 to 14.9 km, 4.5 per cent from 15 to 26 km, and 1 per cent above 26 km. As seen from table 4.8, about 83 per cent workers travelled less than 5 km to reach their workplace from their residence, and 37 percent travelled more than 5 km to their workplaces. Thus, distance decay is evident in travel to workplaces. For those major workplaces such as Tiruvottriyur ID, Madhavaram (2), Avadi (3), Ambattur (4) and Pallavaram (14), 49 to 92 per cent workers travel upto 3 km to reach their workplaces from their residences. Even for those who reside in inner city zones of 6,7 and 8, 40 to 66 per cent of workers travel less than 3 km to reach their workplaces. Zone 9 of the inner city has only 14.7 per cent of residents travelling less than 3 km, 1.8 per oent less than one kilometer and 84 per cent between 6 and 16 km. Higher proportion of workers travel longer distances from this zone, as it is from many aspects most functionally and spatially related to other parts of the metropolitan area, besides possessing all facilities. More or less, Vepery Purasawalkam and Saidapet-T Nagar zones have higher proportion of workers travelling longer distances. More over these zones are low rental areas. The average distance travelled by the workers to reach workplaces is 4.2 km. It is observed from table 4.9 that the distances travelled by individual workers vary from less than

26 table 4.8 Zonewise distribution of workers by distance to place of work in percentages Zone Distance in Km lotal * _ mm _ lotal Source: Estimated by the author. 1. Ennore-Manali-Thiruvottriyur 2. Madhavaram 3. Avadi 4. Ambattur 5. Ayanavaram-Anna Nagar 6. Perambur 7. Rayapuram-Washermenpet 8. Vepery-Pura sawalkaxn 9. Triplicane-Royapettah 10. Saidapet-T Nagar 11. Va1asarawalkam-Maduravoya1 12. Poonthamalle-Kunrathur 13. Tambaram 14. Alandur-Pallavaram 15. Adyar-Guindy 16. Mandaveli-Mylapore 17. Perungudi-lnjambakkam

27 92 Table 4.9 Average distance (in kmso travelled by workers by zone of residence and zone of workplace Zone Zone oi residence , l _ Total Source: Computed by the author t rom the sample survey results and shortest paths between the zones. (Junta...

28 93 Table 4.9 (Contd ) Zone Zone of residence lotal _ b t - 3. b b lb.o ; 9* b b Total 4, b, b Ennore-Manali-Thiruvottriyur 2. Madhavaram 3. Avadi 4. Ambattur 5. Ayanavaram-Anna Nagar 6. Perambur 7. Rayapuram-Wa shermenpe t 8. Vepery-Purasawalkam 9. Tripllcane-Royapettah 10. Saidapet-T Nagar 11. Valasarawalkam-Maduravoyal 12. Poonthamalle-Kunrathur 13. Tambaram 14. Alandur-Pallavaram 15. Adyar-Gulndy 16. Mandaveli-Mylapore 17. Perungudi-Injambakkam

29 km to 28 km. The average distance by zone of workplace varied from 2.4 km ( zone 8 which is inner city zone) to 8.3 km (zone 17 whioh is growing as industrial cum residential in the recent past). All the industrial zones have placed workers in long distances and thus the average distances travelled by them varies from 2.4 to 8.3 km. The most frequent mode of transport in the study area is the bus, as 36.2 per cent workers used it to reach their workplaces. The next is bi-cycle by 29.1 per cent, train by 11.7 per cent, walk by 9.1 per cent, bus cum train by 6 per cent and motor cycle/scooter/car by 5.8 per oent.zonewise analysis of workers using different modes of transport, as observed from tables 4.10 and figure 4.4 is that all industrial workplaces (such as Tiruvottriyur(1), Madhavaram(2), Avadi(3),Ambattur(4) and Pallavaram (14) ) have workers from 40 to 67 per cent using cycle as the mode of transport. All city zones have workers from 36 to 67 per cent using bus as mode of transport to reach their workplaces PROBABILITY OF JOURNIY TO-WORK. The journey to work and services is important element in model building. The data pertaining to the journey to work and services are derived from the sample survey of the workers. The location of residences, workplaces and services are ascertained with the help of the transport network prepared for the study area. To obtain the journey to work probability distribution matrix, all the sample workers were grouped by using their places of residence and workplaces by zone of residence and zone of workplace. The sample distribution is used to estimate number of total workers In the study area.

30 95 Table 4.10 Zonewise distribution of workers by mode ot transport used lor journey to work Zone of residence Mode of transport Walk Cycle Bus Train Cycle cum train Bus cum t rain Motor cycle/ car Total S , , '«Of* Total Source: Estimated by thr author.

31 c 96.J j i**" i i i E3 *7 f.l -H \ i. i t V i Train Bus Cycle Foot 1 cm = 2 km Figure 4. 2 Zonewise mode of transport used by workers

32 97 Finally, the relative frequency distribution derived from the distribution of estimated number of total workers by the iones of resldenoe and zones of workplaces is taken as the journey to work probability distribution matrix, whioh gives probability Plj of a worker living in zone i and working in zone j. Table 4.11 shows that the distribution of workers by zones of residences and zones of workplaces and by the account 37.3 per oent of workers live in the same zone as the zone they work in the study area. As noticed! from figure 4.B three inner city zones (6,7 and 8) and two outer olty zones (6 and 10) have larger proportion of workers (40 to 4B percent) of living and working than the average of the study area in the same zone It is thus the fact that 85 to 00 per cent of the workers of these inner oity zones have workplaces elsewhere in the study area. The outer peripheral zones namely, Avadi(3) and Poonthamallee- Kunrathur(12) have high proportion (68 to 78) per cent of workers living and working in the same zones. While the inner peripheral zones excepting Alandur-Pallavaram have lower proportion of workers (below the average of study area) living and residing in the same zones. The zones with high proportion of industrial workers such as Tiruvottrlyur(1), Ambattur(4), Alandur-Pallavaram(14), Valasarawalkam Maduravoyald 1) situated in the inner periphery, and the Inner olty zone of Trip!icane-Royapettah(9) and outer oity zones of Adyar QuindydBI Mandaveli-Mylapore (10) with higher proportion of basic service seotors such as higher education, health and state and central government employment categories have larger proportion of workers living in zones other than the zone of work place. The probability distribution matrix as mentioned In table 4.12,

33 Table 4.11 Zonewise number of total workers by places of residence and work Zone No. of workers by place of residence.oiliypj. No. of workers by place of work No.of workers living and working in the same zone 98 % of those working and living in same zone to total workers by place of work (Col.3-4) b b b Total 10,812 10,812 4, Source: Estimated and computed by the author.

34 99 Table 4.12 Journey to work probability (Percentages) distribution matrix Zoneof residence Zone oi work place _ 13.2 _ o" ' * _ Total Source: Estimated and computed by the author. Contd

35 Table 4.12 (Contd..} 1UU Zone Zone ol work p lace _ : i o i o o Total Ennore-Manali-Thiruvottriyur 2. Madhavaram 3. Avadi 4. Ambattur 5. Ayanavaram-Anna Nagar 6. Perambur 7. Rayapuram-Washermenpet 8. Vepery-Purasawalkam 9. Triplicane-Royape11 ah 10. Saidapet-T Nagar 11. Valasarawalkam-Maduravoya1 12. Poonthamalle-Kunrathur 13. Tambaram 14. Alandur-Pallavaram 15. Adyar-Guindy 16. Mandaveli-Mylapore 17. Perungudi-1n j ambakkam

36 101 shows that the probability of workers living and working In the same zone varies from 26.1 to 77.7 per cent. The probability of those living and working in different zones vary from 0.40 to 29.1 per cent. The journey to services probability distribution matrix is obtained by classifying the locations of samples workers and location of service by zone of residence and zone of services. The probabilities of sample households living in the 17 zones of the study area and availing of services (neighbourhood, local and metropolitan) in various other zones and in the same zone are given in table It is noted from the table that the highest proportion of workers (68.6 per oent) living and availing services in the same zone is one of the inner city zone, namely, Triplicane-Royapettah (9). This zone includes all types of educational institution, government departments, shopping centres, cinema theatres, health services, recreational-cum-community facilities. Zone 1 which is industrial zone is the next zone having 63.6 per cent living and availing services within the zone. Zone 6 (northern inner city zone which is partly industrial and older residential area having higher proportion of low income population) and 11 (inner peripheral industrial zone) have the least proportion 31.2 per oent and 31.5 per cent respectively (Figure 4.5). 4.4 CALIBRATION OF THE MODEL The model is calibrated with the help of a custom-designed computer program. The calibration procedures are already described in earlier r section of this chapter. Following are the input vector and matrixes arranged from the data analysed:

37 102- Table 4.13 journey to services probability (%) distribution matrix Zone of Zone of residence residence : _ Total Source: Estimated and computed by the author. Contd....

38 103 Table 4.13 (Contd...) Zone of residence Zone of residence o 3 - * * C O b Total Ennore-Manali-Thiruvottriyur 2. Madhavaram 3. Avadi 4. Anibattur 5. Ayanavaram-Anna Nagar 6. Perambur 7. Rayapuram-Wa shermenpe t 8. Vepery-Purasawalkam 9. Triplicane-Royapettah 10. Saidapet-T Nagar 11. Va1a sa rawa1kam-maduravoya1 12. Poonthamalle-Kunrathur 13. Tambaram 14. Alandur-Pallavaram 15. Adyar-Guindy 16. Mandaveli-Mylapore 17. Perungudi-1nj ambakkam

39 s' r i u 104 I' 1 i / Figure 4. 3 lntra and inter zonal movement of workers

40 Basic employment vector Services employment vector Total population vector. (17x3) 2. Journey-work matrices distances,cost and time (Three 17x17 matrices) 3. Journey to work probability distribution matrix (17x17) 4. Journey to services probability distribution matrix (17x17) operating the model: With these data as inputs, the following outputs are obtained by As stated earlier, the journey to work and servioes probabilities distribution matrices used in the model were derived from sample survey of workers in respects of their journey to work and services data. The probability of a worker living and working in same zones varied from to while the probability of a worker living and working in different zones varied from to The zone with the highest probability (0.8860) of a household living and availing of servioes in the same zone was the zone of Triplicane-Royapettah which is one of the inner city zones. The population multiplier is while the population serving ratio is A look at the population-employment ratio suggests that it is 16 persons to every basic employee in zone 3 and 19 persons to every basic employee in zone 12. In only six zones (zones 4, 5, 9, 15, 16 and 17), the population-employment ratio smaller than that of the Metropolitan ratio of 5.026, whereas in all the others, it is more than this ratio. Only in 9 zones, however, the ratio is near or about that the Metropolitan ratio. In service-total employment ratio, on the other hand, much larger than Metropolitan ratios are

41 106 found in zones 5 and 11 (0.237 and respectively). Much smaller population-serving ratio is found in zones 3 (0.018), 12 (0.034) and 1 (0.087). In all other, this ratio is near or about the Metropolitan ratio. In the model, the main components of the metropolitan structure are the population, employment and the interactions between them, in both a spatial and a functional sense. The model consists of two gravity models, one for calibrating residential location and the other for service location. In conjunction with the economic base mechanism, with spatial dimension in the form of site-selection r and local acoess, the model allocates population (basic employees) from workplaces (industrial zones here) to the residential zones (same industrial zones as residential zones as well). Of the more than 1 million workers, the highest concentration of workers by their place of residence are in the zones 9 (105,000 workers) and 10 (148,700 workers). The two zones also hold the highest number of workers by their place of work (143,243 and 155,468 workers respectively in zone 9 and 10). Per cent of those working and living in the same zone accounts for per cent in zone 3, per cent in zone 12 and per cent in zone 14. This percentage is closer to 40 in zones 5 to 8, 1 and 9. In all others, this is near about or lower than 30 per cent. In the entire Metropolitan area, only 37.3 per cent of the workers work as well as live in the same zones PREDICTED POPULATION AND SERVICE EMPLOYMENT FOR INI AND 2001 Although input was primarily the basic population, those employed in basic industries, and the servioe employment, in plaoe at a given point in time, and that calibrated as a demand from basic population, the allocation was of both population (total population predicted using the