A Study on the Influencing Factors of Rural Residents' Tourism Consumption in China

Transcription

1 A Sudy on he Influencing Facors of Rural Residens' Tourism Consumpion in China Bao Zhang a, Laisheng Xiang b, Xiyu Liu c School of Managemen Science and Engineering, Shandong Normal Universiy, Jinan , China. Absrac a zhangbao0@sina.cn, b @qq.com, c sdxyliu@163.com Currenly, ourism is a poenial indusry in he hird indusry of China's economy, i plays an imporan role in promoing he developmen of he naional economy. The rural populaion is vas majoriy in China, acive developmen and promoion of ourism consumpion of rural residens play an imporan role in promoing he developmen of naional economy. In his paper, he regression model of rural residens' ourism consumpion is esablished, and he policy recommendaions are pu forward based on he differen influence facors on rural residens' ourism consumpion. Keywords Tourism; consumpion; rural; own; influencing facor. 1. Inroducion According o inernaional rends, he ourism indusry is increasingly sough afer by people, he developmen of ourism even up o he sraegic level of some counries. Tourism is one of he mos poenial indusry in he eriary indusry, wih he coninuous economic developmen and economic globalizaion, more and more ouris populaion, he number of people ravel abroad is also increasing. In China, rural populaion accouns for he vas majoriy, rural residens gradually have a sense of ourism, began o pursue spiriual enjoymen, and he number of rural ourism is also growing even more han he number of urban ourism. The main domesic research scholars: Yunpeng Li (2005) analyzes he influencing facors of urban residens' ourism from he quaniaive poin of view by consrucing he corresponding model[1]. Chaoyi Xu (2009) used SWOT analysis o sudy his problem [2]. Daijian Tang, Junbin Pan (2010) analyzed he relaionship beween oal expendiure and oal income of rural residens' ourism consumpion[3]. Jiewei Qiu (2011) analyzed he influencing facors of rural residens' willingness o ravel[4]. The main abroad research: Travel economis Archer proposed a demand funcion for residenial ourism consumpion. Scholar Nicolau (2005) analyzed he influencing facors of residen ourism[5]. Researcher Hong (2005) comprehensively expounded he facors influencing he residens' ourism consumpion[6]. Through he combing of domesic and foreign lieraure, i is found ha he research on he influencing facors of rural residens' ourism consumpion has achieved some achievemens. However, hese sudies may no be applied so far over ime, because people's ideas are changing and he influencing facors of rural residens have also changed. Therefore, his paper re-sudy he impac facors of rural residens. The res of he paper is organized as follows: secion 2 is he inroducion of research mehods and daa sources; secion 3 is he choice of variables and he esablishmen of models; secion 4 is he empirical es and reurn; secion 5 is policy recommendaions. 7

2 2. Research Mehods and Daa Sources This paper mainly uses he relaed mehod of economerics. Firs, find possible impac on rural residens ourism consumpion facors according o experience, second look ino he relevan lieraure, and hen reference he sudy ha made by well-known scholars, so as o ge he influencing facors used in his paper, so ha we can esablish he corresponding muliple regression model, and hen use STATA o reurn o ge he corresponding parameers. Abou daa collecion, we searched for he oal amoun of rural residens, he number of rural ouriss, he oal ourism consumpion of urban residens, he number of urban residens, he average income of rural residens and he consumer price index hrough he "China Saisical Yearbook" and "China Tourism Saisical Yearbook". Through he relevan calculaion we go he daa ha we wan, he relevan daa are as follows: Table 1 Influencing Facors of Tourism Consumpion of Rural Residens YEAR Rural ourism consumpion (RCS) Consumpion habis ( RCS -1 ) Village residens' consumpion level(in) Oher groups of ourism consumpion (UCS) Oher groups of ourism consumpion (P) , Variables Choice and Model Esablishmen According o he basic heory of consumer demand, consumers' consumer demand is mainly deermined by wo facors, one is he income level is a preference. The amoun of consumpion comes from income, income is he primary facor affecing he consumpion of residens, ourism consumpion is no excepion, he amoun of ourism consumpion is improved coninuously wih he improvemen of income. People's spending power is limied, and he price of he produc becomes an imporan facor influencing consumer spending, and as he price increases, he amoun of household consumpion decreases. For differen consumers, each consumer has a differen consumpion habis, and consumpion habis is anoher imporan facor affecing he consumpion of residens. 8

3 Consumers are social people, heir own behavior will ineviably be affeced by oher people, in general, high-level consumers can affec low-level consumers. In people's ravel life, people's consumer behavior will also be affeced by oher ravelers. In his paper, by looking ino he relevan lieraure, wih reference o he previous scholars, choose rural residens' consumpion level (IN) as he primary explanaory variable, consumpion habis ( explanaory variable, wih urban residens dominaed by oher groups of ourism consumpion (UCS) as anoher explanaory variable. The explanaory variable is rural ourism consumpion (RCS). Build he model based on he above variables. Tourism producs on he marke range a wide of prices so ha can no be unified, his aricle in order o faciliae he sudy and he reliabiliy of he sudy using CPI o replace he price of ourism producs. Tourism consumpion of rural residens is represened by oal amoun of rural ourism consumpion divided by he oal number of rural residens raveling. The level of income is expressed by he oal income of rural residens divided by he oal number of rural residens. Consumpion habis are expressed by he amoun of ourism consumpion of he las period of rural residens. We can esablish he model: RCS -1 ) as a secondary explanaory variable. The price of ourism producs (P) is also an imporan Ln RCS 4. Empirical es and regression 0 1LnRCS 1 2LnIN 3LnUCS 4 LnP 4.1 Daa Saionariy Tes The model we buil is a ime series regression model, when he uni roo occurs, ha is, ha is each variable is no smooh here will be "pseudo-regression" phenomenon. A his ime, we use he ADF es o es he Saionariy of he variable. The original hypohesis of he ADF es is he exisence of uni roos. The resuls of he Saionariy es are as follows: Table 2 The resuls of he Saionary es variables Criical value (1%) Criical value (5%) Saisics (ADF) Form of he es (c,,i) Conclusion LNRCS (c,0,1) unsaionary LNRCS (0,0,0) saionary LNRCS(-1) (c,0,1) unsaionary LNRCS(-1) (0,0,0) saionary LNIN (c,0,0) unsaionary LNIN (0,0,0) saionary LNUCS (c,,0) unsaionary LNUCS (c,0,0) saionary LNP (c,,2) unsaionary LNP (c,,2) saionary Noe: 1.All he in he able represen he firs order difference; 2. The es form (c,, i) represens he inercep erm, he rend erm, and he lag order erm in he ADF es, respecively. According o he es resuls in Table 2 we can see ha he explanaions of he four variables we have seleced are in he same siuaion, a 5% of he significan level can no rejec he original hypohesis, ha is here exis uni roos, so he four explanaions Variables we seleced are no ime series. By comparing he firs-order difference of he four explanaory variables wih he ADF es, i is found ha he firs-order difference form of he four explanaory variables has he same siuaion, bu he original hypohesis can be rejeced a 5% significan level, There is no uni roo, and he four explanaory variables are saionary. 9

4 4.2 Muliple Regression Analysis We use he leas squares mehod o esimae he model wih STATA, and he regression resuls are shown in Table 3, he regression resuls showed = I proves ha he model we made have a good fi, he variables we choose o do model can explain he explanaory variables very well. Tha is, he four explanaory variables we choose are imporan facors influencing he ourism consumpion of rural residens. We ge he following regression equaion: LnRCS LnRCS LnIN LnUCS LnP Table 3 Regression Resuls Variable Coefficien Sd.Error -Saisic Prob LNRCS(-1) LNIN LNUCS LNP R 0 = F= D.W.= Through he above regression analysis, we found ha he four explanaory variables we seleced had a posiive effec on rural ourism consumpion. While he price of ourism producs on rural residens ourism consumpion has a clear negaive impac. Tourism producs prices for every 1% increase in rural residens' ourism consumpion will drop abou %. For farmers, ourism consumpion is high-end consumpion, and he flexibiliy of high-end consumpion is grea. The consumpion level of rural residens has a posiive impac on he ourism consumpion of rural residens, and each 1% increase in rural residens' income will increase by % of ourism consumpion. An increase of 1% in he previous year's ourism consumpion will increase he consumpion of rural residens by %. The consumpion of oher consumer groups for every 1% increase in rural ourism consumpion will increase %. 5. Policy Suggesion We know ha any consumpion can no be separaed from income, ourism as a high-end consumpion income is closely relaed o income. In rural areas, he income of farmers mainly comes from wo aspecs, one is grain income, one is migran workers income. Rural residens are hard o be affeced by naural disasers, and someimes a year of hard work in vain, he developmen of agriculural insurance sysem is an imporan measure. Esablish a reasonable social securiy sysem o ensure he legiimae righs, and ineress of migran workers, o ensure ha heir wages can be imely and complee o ge, and increase he overall income of he family. Rural residens culural level is low, here are very few jobs in his sociey for hem. From he naional level, i is essenial for sae o creae more jobs for farmers, and promoe he developmen of ownship enerprises. Increased farmers' incomes will naurally increase ourism consumpion. Rural people's consumpion concep is oo backward, afer he income is always like o urn he income ino a deposi, raher han consumpion, hey pay more aenion o maerial saisfacion raher han spiriual saisfacion. The spiriual life of rural residens is very scarce, he undersanding of he world only hrough elevision, he Inerne, ec., and no personally o experience. Therefore, we should acively guide farmers o consume, especially ourism consumpion, le rural residens ge ou of heir homes, change heir radiional concep of consumpion, so as o promoe farmers o ravel consumpion, so as o furher promoe he naional economic developmen. Any person who ravels like o buy local specialy producs, rural residens ravel is no excepion. Bu for rural residens here are few producs suiable o hem, because mos of he produc prices are relaively high, and here is no pracical value. This will undoubedly make he scope of heir choice smaller for pracical rural residens, which will reduce he rural residens of ourism consumpion. Tha requires ouris aracions developmen new ourism produc suiable for rural residens. R 10 2

5 As a resul of he low level of educaion and shor of social experience, farmers ofen deceived during he rip. I is dangerous o carry cash, bu mos rural residens can no be skilled and pracical modern financial insrumens. Creae a safe and secure ourism environmen will undoubedly enable farmers o ge more peace of mind o ravel. We should esablish a sound legal supervision mechanism in he major ouris aracions o proec rural ourism s personnel legiimae righs and ineress. References [1] Y.P. LI: A Sudy Abou Domesic Urban Residens' Tourism Consumpion Based on Economeric Model, Technoeconomics & Managemen Research, (2005) No.6, p [2] C.Y. XU: Thinking and Innovaion of Rural Residens' Tourism Consumpion Based on SWOT Analysis, SHANGYE JINNGJI, (2009) No.11, p [3] D.J. TANG, J.B. PAN: An Empirical Sudy on he Problem of Rural Residens' Tourism Consumpion in China and Is Counermeasures, JIANGSU SHANGLUN, (2010) No.6, p [4] J.W. QIU, Y.H. ZHANG, A.P. CHA: An Empirical Sudy on he Influencing Facors of Rural Residens' Travel Consumpion Inenion, LAN ZHOU XUE KAN,(2011) No.3, p [5] Nicolau J L, Mas F J: Sochasic modeling: A hree-sage ouris choice process, Annals of Tourism Research, Vol. 32 (2005) No.1, p.154. [6] Hong G S, Fan J X, Palmer L Bhargava: Leisure ravel expendiure paerns by family life cycle sages, Journal of Travel and Tourism Markeing, Vol. 18 (2005) No.2, p