Why and how can complexity theories help spatial planners? Luca Bertolini

Transcription

1 Why and how can complexity theories help spatial planners? Luca Bertolini

2 Outline What is spatial planning? What do spatial planners do? Why can complexity theories help? And how to apply this insight to spatial planning? Concepts and examples

3 What is spatial planning? Central to spatial planning is the two-way relationship between spatial structures and socio-economic processes Spatial planning is about facilitating and conditioning (future) socio-economic processes by means of (transformations in) spatial structures

4 Socio-economic processes Facilitates < Planning > Conditions Spatial structures

5 What do spatial planners do? The main way spatial planners have to influence the transformation of spatial structures is the production and deployment of information Both the production and the deployment of information are social/political processes

6 Information, planning and society: from (Source: Ter Brömmelstroet 2006, based on Klosterman, 1997; de Roo, 2004)

7 to (Source: Ter Brömmelstroet 2006, based on Klosterman, 1997; de Roo, 2004)

8 Why can complexity (and similar) theories help? Both the relationship between socio-economic processes and spatial structures and the production and deployment of information are embedded in complex systems Complex systems are systems characterized by: Multiple components and relationships Interlocked feed back loops (rather than independent variables and linear causality) Accordingly, path-dependence and unpredictability

9 And how to apply this insight to spatial planning? The core implication is that there is intrinsic, and at least in part irreducible uncertainty about planning goals and means Finding ways to cope with such irreducible uncertainty lie at the core of the task Beyond Christensen (1985)

10 Coping with uncertainty in planning (Christensen 1985) agreed Goal not agreed Technology unknown known 1. Programming 3. Experimentation 2. Bargaining 4. Chaos?

11 Coping with irreducible uncertainty in planning (or chaos ) Unknown technology can serve multiple goals can serve single goals relevant in more technological contexts Experiment Bargain Robust goal, redefine technology Not agreed goal Pathdependency relevant in one technological context Robust technology, redefine goal Keep options open

12 An illustration: transport planning in Amsterdam Bertolini (2006) A resilient transport network Because multi-centered and multi-modal An adaptable transport policy From supporting hard urban renewal to supporting soft urban regeneration Not so much a plan, but rather successive redefinitions of goals and technologies (through bargaining and experimenting )

13 An application: The Zuiderzeelijn (ZZL) Leeuwarden Groningen Lelystad Amsterdam Schiphol Airport Almere

14 ZZL: scope and history A new, fast train link between the Randstad and the North Initially, to stimulate the economy of the North Later, also to improve the accessibility of the Randstad (Parliamentary commission: need to fundamentally reassess planning approach of large infrastructure projects) At the moment, uncertainty about impacts too great to justify any investment everybody loses?

15 ZZL: dilemma, and a way out? Dilemma: too little with too much Possible way out: more with less? Robust measures, as the radical improvement of a multi-scale/multi-technology corridor Schiphol- Amsterdam South-Almere (together with marginal improvements beyond Schiphol and Almere) Leaving options open, as for more radical transport improvements but also for other type of policies Through successive redefinitions of goals and technologies ( bargaining and experimenting )

16 Conclusions Why and how can complexity theories help spatial planners? Because of irreducible uncertainty about goals and means/technologies Through the identification of ways to improve the resilience (by means of robust goals and means) and the adaptability (by means of leaving options open) of spatial structures Which theories/literature? See appendix!

17 Appendix: Which theories/literature? (Work in progress)

18 Complexity theory and urban planning Jacobs, J. (1961) The death and life of great American cities (Random House, New York) Alexander, C. (1965) A city is not a tree. In Architectural Forum, Vol. 122, No. 1, pp and No. 2, pp Alexander. C., H. Neis, A. Anninou and I. King (1987) A new theory of urban design (Oxford University Press, New York & Oxford). Allen, P. M. (1997) Cities and regions as self-organizing systems: models of complexity (Gordon and Breach science publishers, Amsterdam) Portugali, J. (1999) Self-Organization and the City (Springer, Berlin) Byrne, D. (2003) Complexity theory and planning theory: a necessary encounter. In Planning Theory, Vol. 2, No. 3, pp (Jacobs)

19 Evolutionary planning (!) Metcalfe, J.S. (1994) Evolutionary economics and technology policy, in The Economic Journal, Vol. 104, pp Rammel, C. and J.C.J.M. van den Bergh (2003) Evolutionary policies for sustainable development: adaptive flexibility and risk minimizing, in Ecological Economics, Vol. 43, pp Witt, U. (2003) Economic policy making in evolutionary perspective, in Journal of Evolutionary Economics, vol. 13, pp Van den Bergh, J.C.J.M., A.Faber, A.M. Idenburg and F.H. Oosterhuis (2005) Survival of the Greenest. Evolutionaire economie als inspiratie voor energie- en transitie beleid (Milieu- en Natuur Planbureau, Bilthoven). Bertolini, L. ( 2006, in print) Evolutionary transportation planning? An exploration. In Environment & Planning A. (temporarily available as working paper in the Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography series:

20 Adaptive management and adaptive governance Holling, C.S., Ed. (1978) Adaptive Environmental Assessment and Management (Wiley, New York) Walters, C.J. (1986) Adaptive management of renewable resources (Collier Macmillan, New York) Lee, K.N. (1993) Compass and Gyroscope: Integrating Science and Politics for the Environment (Island Press, Washington DC) Lessard, G. (1998) An adaptive approach to planning and decision-making. In Landscape and Urban Planning, Vol. 40, pp

21 Transition management Rotmans, J. (2003) Transitiemanagement. Sleutel voor een duurzame samenleving (Van Gorcum, Assen) Rotmans, J. (2005) Maatschappelijke innovatie. Tussen droom en werkelijkheid staat complexiteit (DRIFT, Rotterdam) Elzen, B., F.W. Geels and K. Green, Eds. (2004) System innovation and the transition to sustainability (Edward Elgar, Cheltenham)