Lecture 5: Linear Regression
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1 EAS31136/B9036: Statistics in Earth & Atmospheric Sciences Lecture 5: Linear Regression Instructor: Prof. Johnny Luo
2 Dates Topic Reading (Based on the 2 nd Edition of Wilks book) Other Activity Aug 31 Introduction; Review of probability Wilks, Chap 2 Pre-test Sep 7 Matlab tutorial (optional) Sep 14 Review of probability; Probability Distribution 1 Wilks, Chap 2, 3 Sep 21 Probability Distribution 2 Wilks, Chap 3, 4 Sep 28 Hypothesis testing Wilks, Chap 5 Oct 5 Linear regression I Wilks Chap 6; von Storch 8-9 Oct 12 Linear regression II Wilks Chap 6; von Storch 8-9 Oct 19 Time series analysis I Wilks 8; von Storch Oct 26 Midterm; discussion of final project Project 1-page abstract due Nov 2 Time series analysis II Wilks 8; von Storch Nov 9 Principal Component Analysis & Empirical orthogonal functions I Wilks 11; von Storch 13 Nov 16 Principal Component Analysis & Empirical orthogonal functions II Wilks 11; von Storch 13 Project progress report due Nov 30 Cluster analysis Wilks 14 Dec 7 Final project presentation
3 Outline 1. Simple linear regression 2. Distribution of residuals & ANOVA 3. Sampling distribution of the regression coefficients 4. Multiple linear regression
4 x: predictor y: predictand hat ^: predicted value of the predictand In a practical sense, the simple linear regression problem boils down to determining a & b Usually, we do so by minimize error or residual:
5 Least square method:
6 Outline 1. Simple linear regression 2. Distribution of residuals & ANOVA 3. Sampling distribution of the regression coefficients 4. Multiple linear regression
7 We want to know how to evaluate our fit Unbiased (Guaranteed b/c the least square approach) Spread n-2 because two parameters (a and b) were estimated
8 Quantify regression and error SSR (Sum of squares, regression) SSE (Sum of squared error) SST (Sum of squares, total)
9 Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) Table
10 Goodness-of-Fit Measures Measure #1: MSE = SSE/(n-2) Measure #2: Measure #3: F ratio = MSR/MSE
11 Outline 1. Simple linear regression 2. Distribution of residuals & ANOVA 3. Sampling distribution of the regression coefficients 4. Multiple linear regression
12 We don t know the true values for a and b. All we have are just estimates and these estimates following sampling distribution.
13 Information on sampling distributions of the regression coefficients can be used to test if the linear regression is meaningful (or worth doing). Take the slope b for example, usually we use one-sample t test Ø Statistic: Ø Null hypothesis: b = 0 (i.e., flat line) Ø Usually we set the test value at 5%. Ø Check the calculated t against t-table to find the corresponding p value; if the p value is < 5%, then we reject the null hypothesis and conclude b 0.
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16 Analysis Concept We focused on the Atlantic ITCZ Ocean
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18 Example 1. Go to class website ( and download the following two files: temp_precip_ithaca.txt temp_precip_canandaigua.txt Each file contains the following four columns: day (of Jan 1987), precipitation (inches), Max. temperature ( 0 F), and Min. temperature ( 0 F). First, use Min. Temp. at Ithaca as the predictor (x) and Min. Temp. at Canandaigua as the predictand (y). Solve the coefficients for y = a + b*x. Plot the data points and the fitted line. Use matlab if possible. Second, fill in the ANOVA table. Calculate SST, SSR, SSE, etc.
19 When you set n = 1, it becomes y = p 1 x + p 2 LM = fitlm(x,y) fits a simple linear regression model ANOVA(LM, summary ) will give the whole ANOVA Table A sample code for Matlab can be found at:
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