Econ 3790: Statistics Business and Economics. Instructor: Yogesh Uppal

Transcription

1 Econ 3790: Statistics Business and Economics Instructor: Yogesh Uppal

2 Chapter 14 Covariance and Simple Correlation Coefficient Simple Linear Regression

3 Covariance Covariance between and y is a measure of relationship between and y. cov(, y) SS y n 1 ( y n y)( 1 )

4 Covariance Eample: Reed Auto Sales Reed Auto periodically has a special week-long sale. As part of the advertising campaign Reed runs one or more television commercials during the weekend preceding the sale. Data from a sample of 5 previous sales are shown on the net slide.

5 Covariance Eample: Reed Auto Sales Number of TV Ads Number of Cars Sold

6 Covariance Total=10 y y y ( )( y y) cov(, y) Total = 100 SS y =20 SS y n

7 Simple Correlation Coefficient Simple Population Correlation Coefficient cov(, y) y 1 1 If < 0, a negative relationship between and y. If > 0, a positive relationship between and y.

8 Simple Correlation Coefficient Since population standard deviations of and y are not known, we use their sample estimates to compute an estimate of. r 1 cov(, s s r y 1 y)

9 Simple Correlation Coefficient Eample: Reed Auto Sales y y SS SS y Total=10 Total=98 Total=4 Total= 114 y

10 Simple Correlation Coefficient * ), cov( ) ( ) ( 2 2 y y y s s y r n y y s n s

11 Chapter 14 Simple Linear Regression Simple Linear Regression Model Residual Analysis Coefficient of Determination Testing for Significance Using the Estimated Regression Equation for Estimation and Prediction

12 Simple Linear Regression Model The equation that describes how y is related to and an error term is called the regression model. The simple linear regression model is: y = where: 0 and 1 are called parameters of the model, is a random variable called the error term.

13 Simple Linear Regression Equation Positive Linear Relationship yy Regression line Intercept 0 Slope 1 is positive

14 Simple Linear Regression Equation Negative Linear Relationship y Intercept 0 Regression line Slope 1 is negative

15 Simple Linear Regression Equation No Relationship y Intercept 0 Regression line Slope 1 is 0

16 Interpretation of 0 and 1 0 (intercept parameter): is the value of y when = 0. 1 (slope parameter): is the change in y given changes by 1 unit.

17 Estimated Simple Linear Regression Equation The estimated simple linear regression equation ŷ b b 0 1 The graph is called the estimated regression line. b 0 is the y intercept of the line. b 1 is the slope of the line. ŷ is the estimated value of y for a given value of.

18 Estimation Process Regression Model y = Regression Equation E(y ) ) = Unknown Parameters 0, 1 Sample Data: y 1 y n y n Estimated Regression Equation yˆ b0 b1 b 0 and b 1 provide point estimates of 0 and 1

19 Least Squares Method Slope for the Estimated Regression Equation b 1 and SS SS Where y y SS SS y ( y ( ) y)( 2 )

20 Least Squares Method y-intercept for the Estimated Regression Equation b y b 0 1 _ = mean value for independent variable _ y = mean value for dependent variable

21 Estimated Regression Equation Eample: Reed Auto Sales Slope for the Estimated Regression Equation b SS 20 4 y 1 SS y-intercept for the Estimated Regression Equation b0 y b1 20 5*(2) 10 Estimated Regression Equation 5 y ˆ 10 5*

22 Scatter Diagram and Regression Line yˆ number of cars sold number of ads

23 Estimate of Residuals y ŷ e y yˆ

24 Decomposition of total sum of squares Relationship Among SST, SSR, SSE SST = SSR + SSE where: ( y y ) i 2 ( y ˆ y ) i SST = total sum of squares SSR = sum of squares due to regression SSE = sum of squares due to error 2 ( y y ˆ ) i i 2

25 Decomposition of total sum of squares e y yˆ SSE y ( y 2 ˆ) ŷ yˆ y SSR yˆ ( y) SSE=14 SSR=100 Check if SST= SSR + SSE

26 Coefficient of Determination The coefficient of determination is: r 2 = SSR/SST r 2 = SSR/SST = 100/114 = The regression relationship is very strong; about 88% of the variability in the number of cars sold can be eplained by the number of TV ads. The coefficient of determination (r 2 ) is also the square of the correlation coefficient (r).

27 Sample Correlation Coefficient r (sign of b 1 ) Coefficien t of Determinat ion r (sign of b ) 1 r 2 r

28 Sampling Distribution of b1

29 Estimate of σ 2 The mean square error (MSE) provides the estimate of σ 2. s 2 = MSE = SSE/(n 2) where: SSE ( y i y ˆ i ) 2

30 Interval Estimate of 1 :

31 Eample: Reed Auto Sales

32 Testing for Significance: t Test Hypotheses H H : : a 1 0 Test Statistic t b1 0 SE( b ) 1 Where b 1 is the slope estimate and SE(b 1 ) is the standard error of b 1.

33 Testing for Significance: t Test Rejection Rule Reject H 0 if p-value < or t < -t or t > t where: t is based on a t distribution with n - 2 degrees of freedom

34 Testing for Significance: t Test 1. Determine the hypotheses. H H 2. Specify the level of significance. : : a 1 0 = Select the test statistic. t b1 SE( b 1 ) 4. State the rejection rule. Reject H 0 if p-value <.05 or t or t 3.182

35 Testing for Significance: t Test 5. Compute the value of the test statistic. t b SE( b 1 ) Determine whether to reject H 0. t = 4.63 > t /2 = We can reject H 0.

36 Some Cautions about the Interpretation of Significance Tests Rejecting H 0 : 1 = 0 and concluding that the relationship between and y is significant does not enable us to conclude that a cause-and and-effect relationship is present between and y. Just because we are able to reject H 0 : 1 = 0 and demonstrate statistical significance does not enable us to conclude that there is a linear relationship between and y.