Leveraging Urbanization in South Asia

Transcription

1 Leveraging Urbanization in South Asia Managing Spatial Transformation for Prosperity and Livability Mark Roberts Senior Economist Jon Kher Kaw Senior Urban Specialist South Asia Urban Team Social, Urban, Rural and Resilience Global Practice 1

2 Introduction Flagship report launched in New Delhi in Sept rd Flagship report of South Asia Region 2-year effort to build a better understanding of patterns of urban & spatial transformation, & their links with prosperity & livability

3 Report Structure

4 Patterns of Urbanization and Structural Transformation 4

5 Massive absolute growth of urban population Only EAP experienced a larger absolute increase, Projected increase for almost equivalent to adding Indonesia s entire population Policy reforms needed to better leverage urbanization

6 Which has been accompanied by some notable progress

7 -.5 Poverty Rate 0.5 Which has been accompanied by some notable progress Ln(Urban Lights,2010) coef = , se = , t = Rates of extreme poverty lower in more urbanized districts Evidence of urban-rural spillovers for, e.g., India (Cali & Menon, 2014) & Nepal (Fafchamps & Shilpi, 2005)

8 But, GDP per capita levels remain lower than expected given levels of urbanization ln GDP per capita BTN NPL AFG LKA BGD IND PAK Agglomeration index South Asia Other NB: Maldives excluded due to missing data Only Sri Lanka and Bhutan buck the trend of under-performance

9 South Asian cities can improve livability City Ranking New Delhi 110 Mumbai 115 Kathmandu 125 Colombo 127 Karachi 135 Dhaka 139 Developing country averages SAR 125 All developing exc. SAR 103 EAP 93 Source: EIU (2015), Data reused with permission of the Economist Intelligence Unit

10 ln(pm 2.5) South Asian cities can improve livability ln(pop density) SAR Other Based on analysis of WHO ambient (outdoor) air pollution in cities 2014 data; population density measured within 20 km radius of center; analysis controls for climate & geographical determinants of pollution Annual mean concentration of PM 2.5 increases more rapidly with population density in South Asian than in other developing country cities

11 Performance linked to management of congestion forces Urbanization City size and spatial structure Agglomeration economies Productivity, skills, jobs & innovation Congestion forces Pressures on infrastructure & markets Outcomes Prosperity Livability

12 US$ thousands/m² Successful cities are busy cities Reflected both on the streets & in property markets: o o London traffic moves at approx. same speed as in 19 th century London, Hong Kong, Singapore & New York amongst world s most expensive property markets Price of 120 m² apartment Willingness to bear high costs because of strength of agglomeration economies Source: WB staff team based on Global Property Guide data SAR high congestion costs balance agglomeration economies at much lower productivity levels

13 Multiple sources of congestion Messy & hidden urbanization

14 Urbanization has been messy Not only slums, but also sprawl Urban footprints growing at approximately twice the speed of urban population Heterogeneity across countries

15 For many major cities, sprawl accompanied by stagnating urban cores

16 10+ Non-Farm Employment (Thousands) Manufacturing moving-out of major urban centers Manufacturing moving out of Indian metro cores Sub-urbanization of garment manufacturing in Dhaka 5 4 Dhaka CC Dhaka Peri-urban Employment 09 Employment 06 Employment Distance from Dhaka City Center (Km2) Declining manufacturing specialization in Colombo Metro Region De-concentration presents opportunity to move land to higher value uses (e.g. higher valueadded services)

17 Urbanization has also been hidden Messy urbanization associated with expansion into areas formally classified as rural This has contributed to hidden urbanization Tri-temporal nighttime lights image for Sri Lanka red indicates new lights that emerged Urban settlements governed as rural

18 Rise of the multi-city agglomeration No. of agglomerations increased from 37 to 45 between Process well under way in India, Pakistan & Sri Lanka Less advanced in Nepal, Bangladesh & Afghanistan

19 Formation of the Delhi-Lahore megaagglomeration Continuously lit belt of urbanization consisting of 67 cities with population of 100,000 + Estimated total population = 73.4 million Agglomeration has formed despite lack of regional integration o Yellow and green areas: urban footprints in 1999 o Pink areas: urban footprint in 2010

20 Cities need to tackle congestion constraints on several fronts 20

21 Connectivity and Planning Eastern dedicated freight corridor runs in parallel to Golden Quadrilateral highways Passes through densely populated, but lagging states Aims to stimulate agricultural- & mineral production-led development through better connectivity to more prosperous areas

22 Connectivity and market access drive growth of spatial clusters Inter-city transportation links are very good Growth is concentrated along several clusters o Faisalabad-Lahore-Sialkot triangle o Islamabad-Rawalpindi corridor o Karachi-Hyderabad corridor Growth is driven by access to markets, which is produced by proximity and access to transport infrastructure

23 Pakistan s Urban Corridor 23

24 Intensifying Around Key Urban Centers 24

25 Slum shares exceed high poverty rates Slums and informal settlements occupied not by only the urban poor, but also middle income households

26 Cities face large scale housing needs Country Urban population 2010 (000) Average household Size* Total urban households 2010 (000) Percent of population living in slums Urban slum population 2010 (000) Lowerbound est. housing backlog 2010 (000) Afghanistan 7, , , Bangladesh 41, , ,549 5,807 Bhutan India 378, , ,907 18,307 Maldives Nepal 4, , Pakistan 62, , ,027 4,398 Sri Lanka 3, Total 498, , ,233 29,994 Sources: UN World Urbanization Prospects: 2011 Revision; UNESCAP 2012, 126; UN-HABITAT 2013, ; and Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner Note: = not available. Data on proportion of urban population living in slums are for the most recently available years, as follows: 2011 (India); 2009 (Bangladesh, Nepal, and Pakistan); 2005 (Afghanistan and Sri Lanka).

27 Urban Governance and Finance Empowerment deficit Limited, overlapping & fragmented functional assignments with inappropriate/excessive central/state/provincial control Resource deficit Financial basis extremely weak: limited revenue powers and inappropriately conceived/targeted intergovernmental transfers Accountability deficit Despite elections & RTI, accountability mechanisms are weak and underutilized

28 Moving forward Smart Cities and AMRUT SCM is a comprehensive program aimed at revitalizing cities SCM requires selecting a specific part of a city for redevelopment and transformation Developing greenery and wellmaintained open spaces AMRUT will focus on implementation and capacity building Sites will be based on where citizens identify need and linked to city planning

29 Case study: Ahmedabad City has well connected ring & radial roads corresponding to built-up areas BRT system helps improve air quality and has had a positive impact on urban development Source: Retrieved Sept 12, 2014

30 Case study: Ahmedabad CBD Existing Street Network Proposed Street Network Existing Low-Density Development in CBD Proposed High-Density Development in CBD Source: Bimal Patel, 2014.

31 Lahore s most rapid growth is on the periphery Often these agglomerations and urban expansions have detrimental effects on the urban cores Dimming cores, bright peripheries indicate a move of population or industry, particularly manufacturing, to a city s edges Pakistan s cities are growing outward and not upward, increasing the challenges for planning, transportation and providing public services

32 Dimming of Karachi s lights, Source: WB Staff calculations based on DMSP-OLS night-lights data

33 Karachi Land Use 2001

34 2013: Periphery Expansion

35 City expansion characterized by development at the periphery LAND UNDER CONSTRUCTION (2001) LAND UNDER CONSTRUCTION (2013) Leapfrog outside city Periphery growth with road grid Ad-hoc periphery growth Land within city core Based on data from Government of Sindh Urban Unit & European Space Agency 35 Based on data from Government of Sindh Urban Unit & European Space Agency

36 Moving towards a prosperous and livable Karachi ❶ City leadership Vision Metropolitan planning Alleviate congestion ❷ Planning and Finance Catalyst investments Structure plan Revenue and expenditure ❸ Consultations and Inclusion Communities Private business Civil society 24

37 Public spaces occupy a big part of the city

38 Public spaces are assets, yet Vehicles displace pedestrians; poor walkability Streets have become major sources of congestion; public spaces unusable 38

39 Many cities have managed to transform themselves by leveraging their public space assets Colombo, Sri Lanka Medellin, Colombia 39

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42 Downtown Karachi Space to Place? 42

43 Moving towards prosperous and livable cities Policymakers must focus on alleviating both current and future congestion pressures Strengthen urban governance and finance Manage urban sprawl and expansion Focus on city core rejuvenation

44 44 Practitioners network facilitates knowledge exchange Regional workshops organized in Korea, Bhutan, and Sri Lanka. Webinars organized to engage government officials and practitioners on key thematic areas such as regional connectivity, housing, waterfront development. Newsletters published to disseminate report updates

45 Thank you For more on this study, refer to the full report: Leveraging Urbanization in South Asia: Managing Spatial Transformation for Prosperity and Livability Available at