Population Change and Spatial Transformation in The Netherlands
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1 RUG1 dd-mm-jj 1 Population Change and Spatial Transformation in The Netherlands IGU Commission Dynamics of Economic Spaces Conference Wellbeing, Innovation and Spatial Transformation Groningen, July 1-4, 2010 Piet Pellenbarg and Paul van Steen Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen
2 Dia 1 RUG1 Om de datum in te stellen: * >Invoegen >Datum en tijd * Bij Vast: vul de datum in in formaat dd-mm-jj * >Toepassen op alle dia's RUG;
3 dd-mm-jj 2 Agenda Demographic trends in Europe Demographic trends in the Netherlands Spatial transformations Labour market effects Housing market effects Effects on land use claims (Based on the 2010 series of The Netherlands in Maps in TESG (Journal of Social and Economic Geography)
4 dd-mm-jj 3 Annual population growth rate in percent, as listed in the CIA World Factbook (2006 estimate).
5 Population growth and decline of European countries in 2008 dd-mm-jj 4
6 Eurostat Regional Yearbook 2009 Total Population Change, average dd-mm-jj 5
7 dd-mm-jj 6 Shrinking Cities In Europe, Source: Ministry VROM/ Krimpalskans
8 Eurostat Regional Yearbook 2009 Natural Population Growth, average Total popul. change dd-mm-jj 7
9 Eurostat Regional Yearbook 2009 Net migration Total popul. change dd-mm-jj 8
10 Eurostat Regional Yearbook 2009 Ageing: % of population > 65 in 2007 dd-mm-jj 9
11 dd-mm-jj 10
12 Total population prognosis for the Netherlands, by age category, ,474, dd-mm-jj % 15,3% >65
13 dd-mm-jj 12 The population change debate in the Netherlands started only recently Population forecast figures haven been known for many years: no more growth, shrink of working population, ageing But the discussion about consequences, i.e. for working until 67 (was 65) or pension levels, is rather recent The same is true for discussing spatial consequences, i.e. development of housing areas, business sites, services, infrastructures Trigger of discussion: the impending demolition of the village of Ganzedijk (province of Groningen) in 2008
14 dd-mm-jj
15 dd-mm-jj 14 Nether lands in Maps 2010 nr 1
16 Winners and losers: a complex pattern Winners and losers are both in the centre and the periphery Characteristics of a loser-city: inflow of young households (young singles and dinkies) < outflow of couples with young children Not the outflow is the main problem, but the inflow! So: check migration Among the winners: many medium-sized cities Pop. change Green: winners Red: losers dd-mm-jj 15
17 Growth of inhabitants and households (%) dd-mm-jj 16 A dam, R dam, The Hague &Utrecht (>200,000) Cities ,000 Netherlands average households inhabitants
18 dd-mm-jj 17 a. natural b. domestic increase migration surplus Nether lands in Maps 2010 nr 2
19 dd-mm-jj 18 Migration Balance for people aged average Highest growth: in the university cities Exception: Maastricht Growth >>> Decline Migration Balance Source: De Volkskrant Atlas voor Gemeenten (Atlas for municipalities)
20 nrc-next Headline: Fighting for students dd-mm-jj 19 Yellow: most popular destinations for youngsters, aged in (the university cities) Purple: municipalities with the highest chance for future population decline Among them: the now fast growing new town of Almere And more new towns of the past Source: Atlas voor Gemeenten (Atlas for municipalities)
21 dd-mm-jj 20 From the demographic main trends to the spatial transformations. They become manifest through intermediates like The labour market The housing market and related Functional land use claims
22 a. b. Total population Population Change aged dd-mm-jj 21 In the working population declines (and ages!) in many regions, while the total population stabilizes or still grows Almere Nether lands in Maps 2010 nr 3
23 dd-mm-jj 22 Younger and older age groups in the labour force (%) Young (20-30) Old (55-65)
24 The housing market dd-mm-jj 23 the Vinex locations (main new housing districts to accomodate the population increase 1995/2010) seem to be well chosen, i.e. never in decline areas. But of course the Vinex building programs have been building stones of the population forecast models = Municipality with pop. decline
25 Newly built houses compared to the increase of household numbers dd-mm-jj 24 New houses: Far too few Too few Equal Too many Far too many Nether lands in Maps 2010 nr 4
26 Agriculture Nether lands in Maps 2010 nr 5 dd-mm-jj 25 Nature &Recreation Residential Areas Business Sites Growth of land use types between 2000 and 2040
27 Some conclusions dd-mm-jj 26 Compared to some other European countries, the Dutch situation is maybe not too bad But population change affects regions and cities very differently; for some cities and regions the situation is certainly alarming We have to find new ways of balancing growth and decline in rather small spatial contexts There is only a beginning of thought about the spatial transformations that relate to population change There s work to be done for economic geographers, together with demographers and planners!
28 Thank you for your attention dd-mm-jj 27
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