WMO World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water JCOMM-CHy Coastal Inundation Forecasting Demonstration Project (CIFDP)
Coastal Flooding & Vulnerable Populations Coastal populations are rapidly growing worldwide more than 44% people live within 150km of the coast Coastal inundation threatens lives and livelihoods Historically, storm surges have killed more people than winds by Tropical Cyclones, and inundation from earthquake-triggered tsunamis Storm surges are the most underestimated and misunderstood of natural hazards
Reducing vulnerability in coastal areas Recognizing the extreme vulnerability of coastal areas and reducing the risk of disaster is a priority in WMO, the Joint IOC-WMO Technical Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology (JCOMM) and the Commission for Hydrology (CHy). The Coastal Inundation Demonstration Forecasting Project (CIFDP) was established in 2012 a partnership between WMO, JCOMM and CHy. It s a multi-hazard early warning system, integrating river flow, storm surge, wave and flood forecasting to enhance coastal inundation forecasting and warning systems, that can be sustained by the responsible national agencies.
End-to-end Coastal Inundation Management Tsunamis Storm Surges Extreme Waves Tides Sea Level Rise / Climate Change Hydrological Flooding Forecasting and Warning sytems Policy / Management ICAM Coastal Flooding Sea Level Observations Wind, hydrometeorological Observations DEM, Bathymetry Real-time Data transmisison+ dissemination of products Modelling (Forecasting / Hindcasting) Post-event survey, Mapping Socio-economic analyses Planning Regulations / Policy Adaptation Seismic Obs.
CIFDP Implementation: 4 countries (currently) http://www.jcomm.info/cifdp Caribbean Bangladesh Fiji Indonesia Anticipated completion 2019 Natural Disaster Hotspots: A Global Risk Analysis. World Bank, 2005
CIFDP: Overall Aim Reliable open source coastal inundation end to end operational forecasting and warning system Specialized training for operators/forecasters and disaster managers Cross-cutting cooperation among different scientific disciplines and user communities
CIFDP: How? Being implemented on national and regional scales to support end-user needs on completion, forecasting will be provided by National Meteorological and Hydrological Services Phased approach with collaboration between individuals and institutions with expertise in storm surge, wave and hydrological flooding Focused on transfer of technology to adopting countries, particularly for developing capacity in the met and hydrological services Public outreach increasing awareness of storm surges - important Demonstration projects other countries are encouraged to join
No storm surge, wave or inundation forecasting is presently done in Fiji. Nadi CIFDP Fiji: Initial implementation on Viti Levu
Scope of CIFDP-Fiji Focus on the 2 primary sources of coastal inundation: (1) wind driven storm surge from tropical cyclones (episodic) (2) wave/swell driven inundation from long period waves from distant storms (eg Southern Ocean swell) Riverine flooding included, primarily for storm surge inundation, not as a sole source of inundation (Nadi basin treated separately from rest of the island) Non-riverine flash flooding, while important for Fiji, is a different type of forecast problem, and is largely outside scope of CIFDP Tides and Sea Surface Height Anomaly (SSHA) considered contribution to Total Water Level Envelope (or storm tide ), not as sole source
Coastal Inundation Forecasting System Requirements Models for storm surge, waves, river flood (or river flow data) in real time or non real time Tidal and sea surface height anomaly data bathymetry and Digital Elevation Model Integrating shell Post-processing and products post event survey data, including wave and water level measurements, extent and depth of inundation for validation computing capacity communication capacity available staff resources training
CIFDP-Fiji: Governance Context Funding: Korea (held in trust at WMO) 2013 to 2014 : KOICA (Phase 1) 2016/2017: US$400K (Phase 2) from KMA 2017 to 2019: KMA considering funding 2 further years (approx US$ 900K) Overall Co-ordination: WMO (Marine Meteorology and Oceanography Division, Hydrology Division), support from JCOMM and CHy Overall Guidance: CIFPD Project Steering Group (PSG), Co-Chairs Val Swail and Yuri Simonov National Coordination Team: Led by Fiji Meteorological Service (other local stakeholders include eg. Fiji Disaster Management Office, Department of Environment) System Developer: Led by SPC (based in Fiji), with advice from BoM and NIWA, others TBD.
CIFDP-Fiji: Progress so far. June 2013, Definitive National Agreement signed by Fiji Prime Minister s Office December 2013, National Capacity Assessment published January 2014, User Requirements Plan published February 2014, System Design Plan published (end of Phase 1) July 2016, Korean Met Administration (KMA) confirmed 1 year of funding (US$ 400 ) August 2016, Review Meeting, Fiji refined System Design
CIFDP-Fiji (current funding) July 2016 to June 2017 Develop model components for relevant flooding causes as identified in System Design (for year one only: waves and storm surge). Review Meeting, Fiji Wave Model Development Installation of Wave Buoy CIFDP PSG (Dec?) Storm Surge Model Development Stakeholders Meeting (Jun?) Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Mid 2017 to 2019: Proposal Finalisation of wave and storm surge development Development of models for tides, sea surface height anomaly and river flooding Pre-operational testing and then Integration of all these models into a combined operational forecast and warning system Development of training materials and conducting subsequent training workshops when relevant Final end to end forecast simulation Going live in 2019
Highlights from Fiji last week. Wave boundary spectra SPC still need to specify exact requirements. SPC are interested in receiving BoM data. Tidal data : SPC also interested in receiving BoM data. FEWS modelling framework is being considered in the system design. Would BoM be able to support associated FEWS training needs, especially towards the end of the project (as relevant)? NOAA and ECMWF NWP (numerical weather prediction) data (eg wind pressure, rainfall) may also be required
Highlights from Fiji last week. The best methods for river flood forecasting are still to be explored In interim, river flood products could be a simple lookup table of flood scenarios, based on local knowledge, for impact based decision support tools. These can be developed further, eg with lookup maps. Nadi basin will be treated separately NIWA will explore how Training needs to be established, in line with User Requirement Plan. Priority is to train forecasters. Raising public awareness of storm surge warnings: important. COSPPac (Climate and Oceans Support Program in the Pacific) considered a potential program to support training needs. NOAA, Japan and Korea are also offering training support for forecasters.
CIFDP and links to SWFDP, RAV TCC Late August 2016, Solomon Islands: Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) Pacific region. RAV Tropical Cyclone Committee Meeting discussion on the proposed Task Team for Coastal Inundation and Storm Surge (TT-CISS) Promoting the development of coastal inundation and storm surge activities in the region, such as the CIFDP (currently CIFDP in Fiji and Indonesia) Enabling the development of new operational capacity, specialised training, effective outreach and mitigation, by leveraging existing efforts under the WMO RAV working structure, such as the WMO Tropical Cyclone and MMO Training Workshops, and output from the CIFPD capacity development activities.