HURREVAC 2010 A Quick Reference enc e Guide The software Tool used by emergency officials for hurricane evacuation assistance www.hurrevac.com FinalHURREVAC2010Guide.indd 1
About HURREVAC HURREVAC is a decision-support tool used by emergency managers to gather the information they need to assist their evacuation decisions. The software couples hurricane evacuation study (HES) data with real-time weather forecast data from the National Hurricane Center. This combination allows users to graphically display specific local evacuation times for decision-making as hurricanes approach. The name HURREVAC is derived from the words hurricane evacuation. Emergency managers first used HURREVAC during the 1989 hurricane season in South Carolina and Georgia. Additional states were gradually added, and the program has undergone many updates. The current version is general enough to be used throughout most of the nation s coastal zone (including the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Pacific Islands), yet it retains the local data-capturing capabilities that make it so useful. To take full advantage of the latest programming technologies and incorporate feedback from the HURREVAC user community, the National Hurricane Program (NHP) decided to reprogram HURREVAC 2000. The new generation of HURREVAC is coined HURREVAC 2010. Based on the HURREVAC User Survey recommendations that were completed prior to beginning the development of HURREVAC 2010, several enhancements were made to improve the intuitiveness, functionality and ease of use of HURREVAC. The NHP is excited to release HURREVAC 2010 and hopes that it meets the expectations and requirements of the HURREVAC user community. To support the transition from HURREVAC 2000 to HURREVAC 2010 the NHP will operate and maintain both versions of HURREVAC throughout the 2010 and 2011 Hurricane Season. Additionally, several training opportunities sponsored by the NHP will be available between February 1, 2010 and August 31, 2010. Use of HURREVAC is restricted to active members of the emergency management community. Please contact your FEMA Regional Hurricane Program Manager or your USACE HES Study Leader for detailed information regarding training opportunities. For more information on how to use and download the HURREVAC software, please visit www.hurrevac.com. Additional HURREVAC training tools will be available on the USACE NHP Resource Center Website, which should be operational by the Summer of 2010. HURREVAC Sponsors: Federal Emergency Management Agency, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, & U.S. Army Corps of Engineers This Guide was Published in 2010. FinalHURREVAC2010Guide.indd 2
Table of Contents Discover what HURREVAC can do for you. When hazardous weather due to land-falling tropical cyclones approaches your area, a tremendous amount of information is required for decision making. The responsibility for gathering mission critical data and making important decisions about potential evacuations frequently falls on the local and state emergency management team. The list of considerations and contingencies to account for is long and significant, and includes decisions about evacuation timing, evacuation routes, and shelter openings and closings. HURREVAC gives emergency officials easy access to the information they need for efficient decision making. This booklet helps users get the most out of HURREVAC by summarizing the different components of the program and highlighting a few key features to support decision-making What s New with HURREVAC 2010...3 Graphic User Interface...3 Data Download...3 Analysis/Report Definitions...3 HURREVAC Component Summaries...5 Tailoring HURREVAC to Local Areas...5 Plug-ins...5 Advisory Text Viewer...5 Wind Speed Probabilities...6 Wind Fields...7 Wind Timing...8 Evacuation Timing...8 Decision Arc...9 Error Cones...10 Rainfall Forecast...11 River Flood Outlook...12 River Gages...12 Tide Gages...13 GIS Export Capabilities...13 Note: Decision to evacuate should not be based solely on HURREVAC. Components of this program should be used simultaneously and with other information resources. A HURREVAC user must be an active member of the governmental emergency management community. Register to use HURREVAC 2010 at www.hurrecvac.com HURREVAC 2010 1 FinalHURREVAC2010Guide.indd 1
1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 Quick and easy access to HURREVAC setup from the main display Automatically and continuously downloads the latest available real-time data from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) Advisories The new tab display format allows quick and easy access to the Map Display, the NHC Advisory, or any report and analysis The tree-view format provides quick and easy access to current and archive storms and other HURREVAC functions Wind Fields and the Error Cone can be displayed at the same time and are now transparent HURREVAC 2010 does everything that HURREVAC 2000, with only a few exceptions. For example, HURREVAC 2010 does not support ETIS or the ability to track shelter availability and capacity. Through the HURREVAC User Survey it was determined that these functions were seldom used and were captured in other emergency management software being used by the emergency management community. 2 HURREVAC 2010 FinalHURREVAC2010Guide.indd 2
What s New with HURREVAC 2010? graphic user interface The graphic user interface for HURREVAC has been completely overhauled for HURREVAC 2010. The new look enables users to use multiple tabs to view various HURREVAC analyses and reports, while at the same have the ability to quickly toggle back to the Map View or to the hurricane advisory. This look and functionality has a similar interface to various Internet browsers such as Microsoft Internet Explorer, and may be familiar to many users. Current and archive storms are now listed in a tree view format, which allows the HURREVAC user to quickly navigate and select their storm of interest. This format is similar to many GIS based applications. HURREVAC 2010 also uses better mapping techniques to display base mapping features such as State and County boundaries and roadway networks. Additionally, HURREVAC users are capable of reviewing features simultaneously, such as Wind Ranges, Wind Swaths, and the Error Cone. As depicted in the adjacent figure, the Wind Ranges, Wind Swaths, and the Error Cone are also transparent in HURREVAC 2010 allowing the HURREVAC user to view the graphical basemap features beneath the hurricane advisory elements. Additionally, HURREVAC 2010 uses a HTTP server to host all program data. Previous versions of HURREVAC used a FTP site to host program data and download. Now that the data and downloads are located on a HTTP server, the firewall download issue that plagued many HURREVAC users in the past has been resolved. Hurricane Evacuation Study evacuation clearance times, Inundation Maps, and NOAA River Gage Maps in HURREVAC 2000 were downloaded using zip files that required the HURREVAC User to unzip the download files and place the files in the proper file location. To eliminate this cumbersome process, HURREVAC 2010 automatically downloads the HES evacuation clearance times, Inundation Maps and the NOAA River Gage Maps and places the files in the correct file folder with the click of a single button. Analysis/Report Definitions HURREVAC 2010 allows the HURREVAC user to browse the multiple Analyses and Reports and to review their definition and any cautionary notes for each Analysis and Report offered in HURREVAC. Instant access to this information allows the HURREVAC user to quickly determine the analysis or report that he or she needs to assist their evacuation decision process. data download HURREVAC 2010 automatically and continuously downloads the latest hurricane advisory and other real-time data while the program is running. Data can also be downloaded by selecting the Update Now button from the top menu. HURREVAC 2010 3 FinalHURREVAC2010Guide.indd 3
Easy to search available analyses and reports provided in HURREVAC 1 3 Displays definition of selected analysis or report 1 3 4 2 Reports can be viewed in new tab or in a floating window 2 4 Displays cautionary note of selected analysis or report HURREVAC Report Example: Evacuation Timing Single Location 4 HURREVAC 2010 FinalHURREVAC2010Guide.indd 4
HURREVAC Component Summaries Tailoring hurrevac to local areas A great strength of the HURREVAC program is the ability to incorporate local data into the planning models. See the Plug-ins section below for information on local plug-ins. HURREVAC can also be customized to make the tool easier to use. The Setup window, accessed from a button on the main HURREVAC 2010 display window, allows users to change the default program settings for advisory downloads, local plug-ins, and display. These various settings are accessed from five tabs in the HURREVAC Setup Form and cover the following topics: State Plug-ins: select and download plug-in data Connection Settings: set Internet Connection Information Download Schedule: set automatic data download status check Local Defaults: limits analysis and reports to certain counties or parishes Timeline: specify actions to be taken at times relative to an approaching storm Plug-ins Some options used in HURREVAC 2010 still require data plug-ins to be downloaded. However, HURREVAC users no longer have to download the data plug-ins from the HURREVAC Web site. All State specific evacuation data, storm surge inundation graphics, and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) river gage maps can now be downloaded directly in HURREVAC 2010 with a click of a button. Evacuation data plug-ins are available for states that have current evacuation clearance times produced by hurricane evacuation studies. To use HURREVAC 2010 effectively, the evacuation data plug-ins by state must be installed on the user s machine before the evacuation timing analysis and reports become available in HURREVAC. The storm surge inundation graphic plug-ins based on NOAA s Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricane (SLOSH) model are also available for at-risk areas. advisory Text Tab Forecasts of tropical cyclone positions, as well as current motion and intensities, are issued every six hours, or every two to three hours when watches or warnings are in effect, by hurricane specialists at NOAA s National Hurricane Center. The Advisory Text Tab displays these text advisories (Public Advisory, Forecast Discussion, Wind Speed Probabilities, and Forecast Advisory) for a selected storm. In the public advisory, storm positions are given in latitude and longitude coordinates and distance from a selected land point or island. Details on current storm strength include maximum sustained winds in miles per hour (mph) and estimated or measured minimum central pressure in millibars and inches. Located next to the Advisory Text Tab is the Tropical Outlook Tab. The advisory information about strength of tropical HURREVAC 2010 5 FinalHURREVAC2010Guide.indd 5
Wind Speed Probabilities Taken from the Forecast Advisory text, the numbers shown in HURREVAC tell you the overall probability the event will occur sometime during the specified cumulative forecast period (0-120 hours) at each specific point. systems and their current and forecast locations is used by officials to plan and initiate evacuation, to open and staff shelters, and to stage post-storm recovery efforts. The Advisory Text Tab and Tropical Outlook Tab are accessible on the main HURREVAC 2010 Display page. Archived advisory text files can be easily downloaded by clicking the Get Text button under the Advisory Text Tab for the selected hurricane advisory on the HURREVAC Map tab. For example, select an archived storm, then navigate to the advisory of interest in the Map tab, click on the Advisory tab and then click the Get Text button. The archived advisory text for the advisory of interest will automatically populate the Advisory tab. wind speed Probabilities The Surface Wind Speed Probabilities text product, which is attached to the bottom of the Forecast Advisory Text product in HURREVAC, provides probabilities, in percent, of sustained wind speeds equal to or exceeding 39-, 58-, and 74-mph wind speed thresholds. These wind speed probabilities are based on the track, intensity, and wind structure forecasts and uncertainties from the National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and are computed for coastal and inland cities as well as offshore locations (e.g., buoys). 6 HURREVAC 2010 FinalHURREVAC2010Guide.indd 6
These text products are intended to be made available by the issuance deadlines for routine advisories (03, 09, 15, and 21 Coordinated Universal Time - UTC) and to be included with special advisories for all tropical and/or subtropical cyclones. For each probability value, the event in question is a sustained (one-minute average) surface (10 meter) wind speed of at least a particular threshold value (34, 50, or 64 kt) at a specific location. The numbers shown in HURREVAC are the Cumulative 120 hour probabilities These values tell you the overall probability the event will occur sometime during the specified cumulative forecast period (0-120 hours) at each specific point. The corresponding graphic is available on the internet from the NHC web site. You can toggle the Wind Probabilities ON and OFF with the % icon in the lower quick link tool bar. wind fields The Wind Fields display allows users to see the current and forecast strength and estimated extent of a storm s winds. The wind field for a storm is color-coded with rings around the eye of the storm depicting the extent of the winds: blue is greater than 39 mph (tropical storm-force sustained winds); yellow is greater than 58 mph sustained winds; red is greater than 74 mph (hurricane-force sustained winds). When information about a storm is loading, the wind ring (radii) setting is the default view of the storm. For HURREVAC 2010 the Wind Fields display is transparent which allows the user to see the other hurricane advisory elements. Wind radii show the estimated extent of the storm s specific wind fields. The Wind swath shows projected wind strengths that would follow the projected path of the storm based on the respective forecast advisory. This option helps users see whether their area may be affected by winds and their potential strength as the Wind Fields Extent and strength of wind fields, as well as projected wind strengths along the projected storm path. HURREVAC 2010 7 FinalHURREVAC2010Guide.indd 7
storm approaches. It is important to note that actual winds are not limited to the boundaries displayed in HURREVAC. Areas outside the labeled wind field may experience winds of greater strength. Also, the display may become less accurate as a storm approaches land because of interpolation between forecast points. In reality, winds may be maintaining strength, or even increasing in intensity upon landfall. Also note, small changes in forecast track or extent of winds can make a big difference in expected wind intensities at the local level. To switch between the wind radii and the wind swath, use the radial buttons under the Storm Feature menu in the lower left hand corner of the HURREVAC 2010 display, or choose one of the two buttons on the left side bar of the Map tab. wind Timing The Wind Timing Analysis and Reports, located under the Reports menu (Wind Timing) in the lower left hand corner of the HURREVAC display, or the Add New Report tab, allows users to see when different wind speed thresholds of a tropical cyclone may be experienced at specific locations. On the wind timing report charts, locations marked in blue are areas forecast to experience tropical storm force winds (greater than 39 mph); locations marked in yellow are forecast to experience tropical storm force winds greater than 58 mph; and locations marked in red are forecast to experience hurricane force winds (greater than 74 mph). In the All Affected Areas and Local Areas reports, the color coding is based on the peak wind speed at that location. For the Details at a Single Location report, the color coding is based on the wind speed at that time. After a specific report location is selected (All, Local, or Single Location), a dialog box appears. Choose one state from the State drop-down list and one county (or parish) from the County drop-down list. Click OK and the detail report list for that county will appear under a new tab in the HURREVAC 2010 display. evacuation Timing The Evacuation Timing option provides timing charts that depict the amount of time left before wind fields are expected to impact different areas. All evacuation timing options assume that a hurricane will directly hit the selected areas. This information helps emergency managers make decisions about the timing of an evacuation. The tool uses evacuation clearance timetables developed using the transportation analysis from the hurricane evacuation studies for a specific area. These studies are conducted by FEMA, USACE, NOAA, and state emergency management agencies. The Evacuation Decision Time does not imply or suggest that any particular action should be taken but does suggest to emergency preparedness officials when certain decisions should be made. Typically, all evacuations are halted once sustained tropical storm force winds move onshore. Evacuation Timing options are located under the HURREVAC Setup Form. Select Set Evacuation Options button located on the bottom of the HURREVAC Setup Form to adjust settings for the area in question. The Evacuation Timing (All Available Areas) table displays evacuation timeline information for all locations that have evacuation data file plug-ins (see 8 HURREVAC 2010 FinalHURREVAC2010Guide.indd 8
Plug-ins section in this guide). This table lists evacuation scenarios, when decisions should be made, the Saffir-Simpson category of the storm, the time frame of approaching winds, and the distance of the winds from the eye of the storm for each location. To see a specific area, use the Single Location report option under the Reports menu (Evacuation Timing) in the lower left hand corner of the HURREVAC display, or the Add New Report tab. The Single Location report table tab lists possible actions and the times those decisions should be made within the current hurricane advisory. The report table also lists the time remaining to make a decision, the distance of different strength winds, and whether the possible action will take place during the day or at night. decision arc Small changes in the intensity, track, and forward speed of hurricanes can have a big effect on the timing and location of landfall, resulting in major implications for potential evacuations. Because of this, a decision aid was needed to relate evacuation operations to the overall hurricane threat, rather than focusing on the location of the eye. The Decision Arc tool was created to calculate and graphically represent the timeframe for evacuation decision-making. The arc depicts the time at which the radius of sustained 39-mph winds touches an appropriate Decision Point, based on the evacuation clearance times for the current forecast information. The clearance time is subtracted from the tropical storm-force winds arrival time to reach a suggested Evacuation Decision Time, which refers to the time at which the decision about a possible evacuation should be made. This approach is based on the need to have the at-risk population out of vulnerable areas before situations occur that could make evacuation hazardous. For example, with a evacuation clearance time of 15 hours for a county, and a current hurricane forward speed of 10 knots, the evacuation should be initiated before the sustained 39-mph winds get within 150 nautical miles (15 hours Decision Arc with Evacuation Timetable The circle graphically depicts the estimated evacuation time. When the Decision Arc and Tropical Storm Force Winds touch, the decision to evacuate may need to be made. The evacuation timetable should be used along with the Decision Arc. HURREVAC 2010 9 FinalHURREVAC2010Guide.indd 9
Error Cones The error cone represents the probable position of the center of the storm based on National Hurricane Center forecast track and historical errors for 72 hours (shown in white) and 120 hours. x 10 knots = 150 nautical miles) of the area being evacuated. The decision arc is plotted based on this distance, so that when the radius of 34-knot winds intersects the clearance time radius, emergency managers can plan ahead for the appropriate time needed to complete an evacuation based on the current forecast information, and whether the situation is changing as the storm forecast changes. The volatile and dynamic nature of hurricanes, however, means changes in a hurricane track and intensity can occur and should be expected from one advisory to the next. Increases or decreases in wind range, storm speed, and storm category could result in longer or shorter evacuation clearance times and a potentially wider Decision Arc. Therefore, the Decision Arc should be checked after each new forecast has been released to understand how the situation is changing and the potential impacts this might have on possible protective actions or evacuations. Remember, although the Decision Arc is a powerful decisionsupport tool - evacuation decisions should be made based the best available information and additional tools rather than a single graphic. The Decision Arc is found under the Utilities menu on the lower left hand corner of the HURREVAC 2010 display and requires a setup before it can be used. The user must select an evacuation location and choose details for the evacuation, such as Saffir- Simpson category, tourist occupancy, and response rate. The program uses the evacuation clearance time from the available clearance timetable plug-ins and the settings (such as Occupancy, Response, Storm Category). Under Utilities, select Decision Arc and then Decision Arc Setup. error cones HURREVAC allows users to display the Average Error Cone associated with a National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast. The cone represents the probable track of the center of a tropical cyclone, and is formed by enclosing the area swept out by a set of circles along the forecast track (at 12, 24, 36 hours, etc). The size 10 HURREVAC 2010 FinalHURREVAC2010Guide.indd 10
of each circle is set so that two-thirds of historical official forecast tracks over a 5-year sample fall within the circle. So historically, one third of storms would fall outside of the error cone. This information is combined with a current forecast storm path and helps users see where the storm might go within the forecast period. The Average Error Cone has two components: the three-day and five-day swaths. The white cone represents the three-day uncertainty of the center of the storm over the next 72 hours. A solid gray line marks the five-day (or 120-hour) error cone. The 120-hour forecast is not available for storms that occurred before the 2003 season. For HURREVAC 2010 the Error Cone display is transparent and can be viewed with the Wind Fields (Wind Swaths and Ranges) simultaneously. A community in or near the Average Error Cone would find it helpful to examine the Wind Decay Model Maximum Envelope of Wind (MEOW) for the storm and attempt to assess the potential risk of storm-force winds. To access these, go to Reports menu in the lower left corner of the HURREVAC 2010 display and select Wind Decay. When a storm is approaching an area, emergency managers should view the error cones frequently to determine if the storm could be a potential threat. rainfall forecast Rainfall forecasts are an important component in assessing potential storm risks. The NOAA Hydrometeorological Prediction Center s Three Day forecast of 24-hour rainfall is available to display in HURREVAC. These forecasts are issued twice a day around 8 a.m. and 8 p.m. eastern time (standard or daylight savings). Since inland flooding is a great risk even with smaller, weaker storms, emergency managers should view the Rainfall Forecast daily as a storm approaches to determine if their area is expected to receive heavy rains. Rain amounts less than one inch in 24 hours are displayed in light green, and amounts greater than one inch are in Rainfall Forecasts and River Gages Rainfall forecasts and river gages can be viewed simultaneously to see which areas are forecast to receive heavy rains and how the rivers will be affected. HURREVAC 2010 11 FinalHURREVAC2010Guide.indd 11
darker green for emphasis. Rainfall forecasts can be found under the Current tab and then selecting Rain and then Day 1, Day 2, or Day 3. HURREVAC users can select the Rainfall List (under the Reports menu) to scan ALL or LOCAL counties for the rainfall forecast for days 1 to 3. river flood outlooks The River Flood Outlook uses data from the National Weather Service and is helpful for identifying storm-associated flooding. Areas of potential flooding are represented by color-coded polygons on a map, indicating if flooding is possible (black), likely (blue), or imminent or occurring (red). In addition to showing flood potential, the map gives projected flooding dates. Flood forecast data is downloaded automatically in HURREVAC 2010. To display the flood outlook data under the Current tab, click Rivers to expand the tree view and then select Flood Outlook. river gages To monitor river flooding, users can view river heights at various gage locations. River Gage Observations and Forecasts are accessed under the Current tab, by clicking Rivers to expand the tree view and then select River Gages. Users can see if a gage is experiencing river stages of major, moderate, or minor flooding, or is below flood stage. Also available is the water-level forecast for each gage, including whether water levels will fall, rise, or remain steady. Selecting an individual gage opens the River Gage Browser window for that gage, and a hydrograph is the default view. The hydrograph reveals observed and forecast river stages at that gage location. Additionally, the non-default options in the River Gage Browser are Impacts, Crests, and Map (if available) for that gage location (see Plug-ins section in this guide for information on downloading inundation maps for gage locations). Emergency managers can compare the river stages to potential impacts and determine what actions, if any, need to be taken. Users can also check the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service Web site for more detailed and up-to-date impact and crest information. Go to www.weather.gov/ahps/ to find this information. This option must be used with HURREVAC s Hydrometeorological Prediction Center rain forecast to monitor rain activity in the emergency manager s area, as well as upstream. River Gage Hydrograph River gage hydrographs display observed and forecast river heights. In the River Gage Browser window, users can also view impacts, crests, and inundation maps (where available). 12 HURREVAC 2010 FinalHURREVAC2010Guide.indd 12
GIS Export Utility The GIS Export Utility will create polygon, line, and point ESRI shapefiles for use in GIS programs. This utility is capable of exporting the following GIS layers: 1) Forcasted Storm Track; 2) Past Storm Track; 3) Wind Ranges; 4) Average Error Swath; and 5) River Flood Outlook. Tide gages When a storm is approaching land, the Tide Browser within HURREVAC allows users to monitor tidal cycles at a local tide gage and see information associated with the estimated time of a storm s landfall. Because storm surge will be much greater if a storm approaches land at high tide, knowing the tide stage at landfall could change the need for areas to be evacuated. Tide gages are accessed under the Current tab, by checking Tide Gages box. The tide gages will appear on the map. Gage readings are available along the coast from Maine to Texas, including major bays and estuaries. Click on an individual gage to open the Tide Browser for that gage. The browser shows the astronomically predicted and observed tide levels. The browser also displays predicted storm surge at the gage location and also displays observed storm surge. The forecast surge utilizes real time storm surge forecasts from the SLOSH model, within 36 hours of landfall. Outside of real-time Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) forecasts or while planning, the Maximum Envelope Of Water (MEOW) storm surge amount or a Maximum of Maximums (MOM) storm surge amount from the drop-down lists available for the tide gage. The MEOWs refer to SLOSH surges grouped into categories of Saffir-Simpson scale (1 to 5), Direction of movement, and Speed of Movement. The MOMs refer to the maximum surge amounts for each Saffir- Simpson Category, regardless of direction or speed. gis export capabilities Within HURREVAC, users can export certain data to a geographic information system (GIS) format. This functionality allows users to view warning and forecast information from HURREVAC with community-specific GIS data, such as structure information, shelter locations, topographic maps, and aerial photos. These data are often more detailed than the data contained in HURREVAC and provide further analysis of storm information and the potential impact to a community. The GIS Export feature is located in the lower left corner of HURREVAC 2010 display under Utilities. HURREVAC 2010 13 FinalHURREVAC2010Guide.indd 13
HURREVAC 2010 HURREVAC Sponsors: Federal Emergency Management Agency National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration U.S. Army Corps of Engineers For Additional information support@hurrevac.com This guide was published in 2010. FinalHURREVAC2010Guide.indd 14