GMFS South Sudan CFSAM Support Kit version 1.0 October, 2011
Table of contents 1 Disclaimer... 1 2 General introduction... 1 3 South Sudan base maps and statistics... 2 3.1 Base map... 2 3.2 Agroecological zones... 3 3.3 Trends in cereal production traditional sector (1999 2009)... 4 4 Rainfall Estimate... 7 4.1 Estimated rainfall in 2011... 7 4.2 Comparison RFE 2011 with Long Term Average (LTA1999-2010)... 8 5 South Sudan ARABLE LAND... 9 5.1 2011 NDVI and cumulated rainfall compared to Long Term Average (both 1999-2010)... 10 5.3 Vegetation status over arable land... 12 6 South Sudan PASTURE... 14 6.1 2009 NDVI and cumulated rainfall compared to Long Term Average... 15 6.2 Vegetation status over pasture... 17 Table of contents
1 Disclaimer The designations employed and the presentation of material in the map(s) do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of GMFS/VITO concerning the legal or constitutional status of any country, territory or sea area, or concerning the delimitation of frontiers. The administrative units and their names shown on this map do not imply acceptance or recognition by the Government of Republic of South Sudan. This map aims only to support the work of the CFSAM team. 2 General introduction This document gives an overview of GMFS efforts to contribute to the joint FAO, WFP and JRC and Crop CFSAM in South Sudan. Its goal is to serve as an extra input during the field assessment mission in October 2011. Two first report were delivered in 2009 and 2010. This new document takes into consideration some remarks from FAO/JRC/WFP to have a better overview by reducing the number of indicators, having monthly maps, showing simpler differences indicators and have a chapter summarizing the crop statistics. Further remarks to improve the CFSAM kit are expected after the field review in order to define and improve a standard document that can be produced regularly before the field mission. The analysis is mainly based upon products derived from remote sensing low resolution sensor SPOT VGT, ENVISAT MERIS and METEO satellite in combination with land use classes derived from FAO AFRICOVER map. This document consists of four main chapters. The first part ( 3) summarizes the existing crop yield/area/production statistics from 1998-1999. The second chapter( 4) displays the rainfall regime and its comparison with the average. The third part ( 5) is dedicated to the analysis over arable with profiles per state of vegetation index and rainfall along the season. The profiles are aggregated through the arable land mask. Two cluster analysis are performed over 2011 NDVI and its difference with the 12 year average. The last part ( 6) review the same analysis but exclusively for pasture area. The analysis are mainly focusing on detected anomaly which origins (vegetation stress, excess of water, ) need often a field control as low resolution remote sensing is detecting surface condition and hardly land cover. 1
3 South Sudan base maps and statistics 3.1 Base map Source: Sudan Interagency Mapping 2
3.2 Agroecological zones Source: World Food Programme Sudan VAM Unit; October 2009 3
Yield (t/ha) Yield (t/ha) 1998-1999 1999-2000 2000-2001 2001-2002 2002-2003 2003-2004 2004-2005 2005-2006 2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010 3.3 Trends in cereal production traditional sector (1999 2009) Sources: Special Report - FAO/WFP Crop and food supply assessment mission to Sudan, 11 February 2004 (1999 2003) and Special Report - FAO/WFP Crop and food security assessment mission to Southern Sudan, 17 February 2010 (2004 2010) 3.3.1 Yield (t/ha) per state 1999 2010 state min max avg Upper Nile 0,68 0,75 0,87 0,47 0,79 0,54 0,81 0,91 0,87 0,85 0,43 0,63 0,43 0,91 0,72 Unity 0,67 0,85 0,80 0,62 0,75 0,71 0,86 0,80 0,93 0,98 0,42 0,65 0,42 0,98 0,75 Jonglei 0,71 0,56 0,79 0,77 0,71 0,65 0,81 0,80 0,84 1,10 0,33 0,81 0,33 1,10 0,74 N Bahr el Ghazal 0,68 0,54 0,61 0,40 0,76 0,66 0,60 0,69 0,74 0,75 0,83 0,84 0,40 0,84 0,67 W Bahr el Ghazal 0,76 0,66 0,81 0,74 0,74 0,71 0,91 0,91 1,22 1,53 0,88 0,86 0,66 1,53 0,89 Lakes 0,71 0,71 0,81 0,77 0,77 0,72 0,93 0,85 1,03 1,20 0,63 0,96 0,63 1,20 0,84 Warrab 0,96 0,85 0,92 1,25 0,78 0,79 0,78 1,25 0,92 C Equatoria 0,63 0,75 0,85 0,83 0,82 0,83 1,03 1,10 1,06 1,53 0,55 0,77 0,55 1,53 0,90 E Equatoria 0,82 0,38 0,49 0,54 0,70 0,63 0,70 0,63 0,83 1,11 0,62 0,81 0,38 1,11 0,69 W Equatoria 1,02 1,17 1,17 1,20 1,32 1,05 1,29 1,20 1,49 1,83 0,95 0,96 0,95 1,83 1,22 TOTAL 0,79 0,73 0,80 0,67 0,84 0,72 0,92 0,90 1,01 1,25 0,63 0,82 0,63 1,25 0,84 1,90 1,70 1,50 1,30 1,10 0,90 0,70 0,50 0,30 1,90 1,70 N Bahr el Ghazal W Bahr el Ghazal Lakes Warrab W Equatoria TOTAL 1,50 1,30 1,10 0,90 0,70 0,50 0,30 Upper Nile Unity Jonglei C Equatoria E Equatoria TOTAL 4
Area (*1000 ha) Area (*1000 ha) 1998-1999 1999-2000 2000-2001 2001-2002 2002-2003 2003-2004 2004-2005 2005-2006 2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010 3.3.2 Area (*1000 ha) per state 1999 2010 300 state min max avg Upper Nile 34 44 47 88 53 122 81 92 55 79 77 78 34 122 71 Unity 21 40 40 13 16 28 37 44 27 43 37 40 13 44 32 Jonglei 65 43 24 31 38 23 130 139 90 115 104 143 23 143 79 N Bahr el Ghazal 34 127 180 208 243 156 50 55 50 59 71 79 34 243 109 W Bahr el Ghazal 29 70 26 31 46 28 32 35 32 34 39 37 26 70 37 Lakes 95 76 80 73 113 88 82 82 77 84 69 76 69 113 83 Warrab 0 98 94 112 116 119 126 0 126 95 C Equatoria 24 91 102 72 102 120 114 108 106 131 121 127 24 131 101 E Equatoria 45 45 45 13 44 35 40 49 66 85 98 103 13 103 56 W Equatoria 121 114 114 100 100 77 87 91 91 107 116 112 77 121 103 TOTAL 468 650 658 629 757 677 751 788 705 853 852 921 468 921 726 Relative contribution (%) Upper Nile 7 7 7 14 7 18 11 12 8 9 9 Unity 4 6 6 2 2 4 5 6 4 5 4 Jonglei 14 7 4 5 5 3 17 18 13 13 12 N Bahr el Ghazal 7 20 27 33 32 23 7 7 7 7 8 W Bahr el Ghazal 6 11 4 5 6 4 4 4 5 4 5 Lakes 20 12 12 12 15 13 11 10 11 10 8 Warrab 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 12 16 14 14 C Equatoria 5 14 16 11 13 18 15 14 15 15 14 E Equatoria 10 7 7 2 6 5 5 6 9 10 12 W Equatoria 26 18 17 16 13 11 12 12 13 13 14 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 250 200 150 100 50 0 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 N Bahr el Ghazal W Bahr el Ghazal Lakes Warrab W Equatoria Upper Nile Unity Jonglei C Equatoria E Equatoria 5
Production (*1000 tons) Production (*1000 tons) 1998-1999 1999-2000 2000-2001 2001-2002 2002-2003 2003-2004 2004-2005 2005-2006 2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010 3.3.3 Production (*1000 tons) per state 1999 2010 250 state min max avg Upper Nile 23 33 41 41 42 66 66 84 48 67 34 49 23 84 50 Unity 14 34 32 8 12 20 32 35 25 42 18 24 8 42 25 Jonglei 46 24 19 24 27 15 105 111 76 126 38 84 15 126 58 N Bahr el Ghazal 23 68 109 83 185 103 30 38 37 44 49 60 23 185 69 W Bahr el Ghazal 22 46 21 23 34 20 29 32 39 52 30 34 20 52 32 Lakes 67 54 65 56 87 63 76 70 79 101 53 66 53 101 70 Warrab 0 94 80 103 145 90 94 0 145 87 C Equatoria 15 68 87 60 84 100 117 119 112 201 72 93 15 201 94 E Equatoria 37 17 22 7 31 22 28 31 55 94 53 79 7 94 40 W Equatoria 123 133 133 120 132 81 112 109 136 196 102 112 81 196 124 TOTAL 370 477 528 422 635 490 689 709 711 1068 541 695 370 1068 611 Relative contribution (%) Upper Nile 6 7 8 10 7 13 10 12 7 6 6 7 Unity 4 7 6 2 2 4 5 5 4 4 3 3 Jonglei 12 5 4 6 4 3 15 16 11 12 7 12 N Bahr el Ghazal 6 14 21 20 29 21 4 5 5 4 9 9 W Bahr el Ghazal 6 10 4 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 6 5 Lakes 18 11 12 13 14 13 11 10 11 9 10 9 Warrab 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 11 14 14 17 14 C Equatoria 4 14 16 14 13 20 17 17 16 19 13 13 E Equatoria 10 4 4 2 5 4 4 4 8 9 10 11 W Equatoria 33 28 25 28 21 17 16 15 19 18 19 16 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 200 150 100 50 0 250 200 150 100 50 0 N Bahr el Ghazal W Bahr el Ghazal Lakes Warrab W Equatoria Upper Nile Unity Jonglei C Equatoria E Equatoria 6
4 Rainfall Estimate 4.1 Estimated rainfall in 2011 March 2011 April 2011 May 2011 June 2011 July 2011 August 2011 September 2011 < 25 mm 25-50 mm 50-100 mm 100-150 mm 150-200 mm > 200 mm 7
4.2 Comparison RFE 2011 with Long Term Average (LTA1999-2010) March April May June July August September < 25 % 25-50 % 50-75 % 75-100 % 100-125 % 125-150 % 150-175 % > 175 % No data or LTA rainfall = 0 mm 8
5 South Sudan ARABLE LAND State Total area (ha) arable land (ha)* % TOT Central Equatoria 4360632 1043307 24 Eastern Equatoria 7308796 356190 8 Jonglei 12209642 297124 7 Lakes 4335401 163511 4 Northern Bahr El Ghazal 3109294 299328 7 Unity 3679779 75629 2 Upper Nile 7783280 637989 15 Warrab 3489110 534160 12 Western Bahr El Ghazal 9273629 217778 5 Western Equatoria 7944047 676355 16 TOTAL 4301371 100 *Source: Africover 9
5.1 2011 NDVI and cumulated rainfall compared to Long Term Average (both 1999-2010) 10
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5.3 Vegetation status over arable land 5.3.1 NDVI: Cluster analysis over arable land a. Current year The cluster analysis distributed pixels in 5 classes characterised by NDVI values for each decade which are displayed into the profiles graph. The colours on the map are linked to the colour of the profiles. It gives an overview of the potential biomass production and vegetation cycle distribution over South Sudan. Clusters profiles characteristics Clusters distribution over arable land 12
b. Comparison with Long Term Average (LTA 1999-2010 ) The cluster analysis is applied on the percentage of difference of 2011 NDVI with the NDVI LTA. The coloured clusters into the map are characterised by the corresponding colours of the profiles. The anomalies impact can be analysed according to their duration and the distance to the average(zero into the profile). Clusters profiles characteristics Clusters area proportion over arable land 5% 21% 40% 21% 13% Clusters distribution over arable land 13
6 South Sudan PASTURE State Total area (ha) pasture (ha)* % TOT Central Equatoria 4360632 187865 1 Eastern Equatoria 7308796 2281360 18 Jonglei 12209642 2304623 18 Lakes 4335401 471761 4 Northern Bahr El Ghazal 3109294 509115 4 Unity 3679779 1289886 10 Upper Nile 7783280 2638833 21 Warrab 3489110 674626 5 Western Bahr El Ghazal 9273629 1858095 15 Western Equatoria 7944047 461732 4 TOTAL 12677896 100 <150.000 ha 150.000-300.000 ha 300.000-500.000 ha 500.000-1.000.000 ha 1.000.000-2.000.000 ha > 2.000.000 ha *Source: Africover
6.1 2011 NDVI and cumulated rainfall compared to Long Term Average (both 2009-2010)
6.2 Vegetation status over pasture 6.2.1 NDVI: Cluster analysis over pasture The cluster analysis distributed pixels in 5 classes characterised by NDVI values for each decade which are displayed into the profiles graph. The colours on the map are linked to the colour of the profiles. It gives an overview of the potential biomass production and vegetation cycle distribution over South Sudan. a. Current year Clusters profiles characteristics Clusters distribution over pasture area
b. Cluster Analysis: Comparison of 2011 with Long Term Average (LTA 1999 2010 ) The cluster analysis is applied on the percentage of difference of 2011 NDVI with the NDVI LTA. The coloured clusters into the map are characterised by the corresponding colours of the profiles. The anomalies impact can be analysed according to their duration and the distance to the average(zero into the profile). Clusters profiles characteristics Clusters area Proportion for pasture 10% 16% 44% 22% 8% Clusters profiles distribution over pasture area