Aviation Weather For Pilots. Aviation Weather Decoded

Aviation Weather For Pilots Aviation Weather Decoded Presented by Mike Cetinich

About Your Instructor n B.S. Meteorology San Jose State University n Flight Training n Career at Jeppesen (30+ years) Aviation Meteorologist Manager of Meteorology Programmer Product Manager n Weather Geek

About Today n Goal Help You Understand Aviation Weather Better n How Active Participation n Why Stay Safe & Alive n Weather Accounts for 15% of all GA accidents n 25% of all Weather Accidents are fatal (NASA study)

Agenda n Decoding Aviation Weather Information Sources of Aviation Weather Weather Information and what it means n Weather Trivia Question & Break n Aviation Weather Resources n Weather Trivia Question & Break n Flight Scenario

Ground Rules n Get the Information You Want (Ask Questions) n 2 Breaks come and go as needed n Cell Phones Off Please n Chance to win Prizes Test Your Weather Trivia knowledge n Have Fun While Learning

World Area Forecast Centers n U.S. NWS Washington DC n U.K. Met Office Exeter, U.K. n Responsibility for providing worldwide weather information to aviation industry users, under agreement with ICAO. n Acquire and disseminate global observations & forecasts, and provide global numerical model output.

U.S. Weather n NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NWS 122 Weather Forecast Offices n Issues TAF s for airports in forecast area n Issues Weather Watches and Warnings n Operates NEXRAD radars in forecast area SPC Storm Prediction Center (Norman) n Issues Severe Thunderstorm/Tornado Watches n Issues Convective Outlooks & Mesoscale Discussions TPC Tropical Prediction Center (Miami) n Issues Tropical Storm/Hurricane bulletins for the Atlantic, Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and Eastern Pacific n Also centers in Honolulu (Central Pacific Hurricane Center) and Guam (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

U.S. Weather n NOAA AWC Aviation Weather Center (Kansas City) n Issues SIGMETs and AIRMETs n Issues Convective SIGMETs n Issues Area Forecasts Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (Washington) n Issues Volcanic Ash Advisories n 8 other centers around the globe NESDIS National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service (Washington) n Operates and disseminates GOES (geostationary) and POES (polar orbiting) satellite imagery

n NOAA U.S. Weather Center Weather Service Units n NWS Meteorologist located within an ARTCC n Issues Center Weather Advisories (CWA) within the FIR n Issues Meteorological Impact Statements (MIS) within the FIR National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) n Ingests regional and worldwide climate data Surface obs, upper air obs, radiosonde balloons, satellites, aircraft, NEXRAD, ships, buoys etc n Runs worldwide and regional numerical weather prediction and climate models

Decoding Text Reports n METAR Observations ASOS: Automated Surface Observing System n Manual Augmentation n Completely Automated n Visibility n Clouds n Weather n Winds n Precipitation n SLP/Altimeter n Temp/Dew Point n Remarks

Decoding Text Reports n METAR Observations coded vs decoded METAR KAPA 221553Z 29003KT 8SM FEW100 SCT140 BKN220 19/13 A3032 RMK AO2 SLP205 T01890133= METAR: hourly observation for KAPA issued Wind: 290 at 3 knots Visibility: 8 miles Sky: 10000ft few, 14000ft scattered, 22000ft broken Temperature: 19 C (66 F) Dew point: 13 C (55 F) Altimeter: 30.32 Remarks: automated station with precipitation discriminator, sea level pressure 1020.5 hpa, T01890133=

Decoding Text Reports n METAR Observations KXYZ 011153Z AUTO 17012G25 110V200 1/2SM R30L/3500V5000FT TSSN VV002 SCT008 BKN012 OVC020CB M02/M04 A2992 RMK A02 PKWND 17028/0123 TSB05 PRESFR SLP132 OCNL LTGICCG ALQDS MOV NE SNINCR 1/2 4/002 P0010 60025 70032 T10181042 11010 21051 400151075 56029= Station ID: KXYZ Day & Time: 011153Z 01 = First day of current month 1153Z = 1153 UTC Report Type: AUTO = indicates completely automated observation COR = Corrected Observation Blank = Observer input is possible Wind: 17012G25 170 = wind direction of 170 deg (reference from true north) 12 = 12 kt sustained wind speed (2 minute average) G25 = gusting to 25 kts (highest gust last 10 minutes, must exceed 10 kts between lulls and peaks to be reported as a gust) 110V200 = wind direction variable between 110 and 220 deg (must exceed 60 deg to be reported as variable and speed exceed 6 kts)

Decoding Text Reports n METAR Observations KXYZ 011153Z AUTO 17012G25 110V200 1/2SM R30L/3500V5000FT TSSN VV002 SCT008 BKN012 OVC020CB M02/M04 A2992 RMK A02 PKWND 17028/0123 TSB05 PRESFR SLP132 OCNL LTGICCG ALQDS MOV NE SNINCR 1/2 4/002 P0010 60025 70032 T10181042 11010 21051 400151075 56029= RVR: R30L/3500V5000FT Runway 30L Visual Range 3500 ft variable to 5000 ft. Weather: TSSN Thunderstorm with moderate snow. Intensity Descriptor Precipitation Obscuration Other - Light MI Shallow DZ Drizzle BR Mist PO Dust/Sand Devils Moderate PR Partial RA Rain FG Fog SQ Squalls + Heavy BC Patches SN Snow FU Smoke FC Funnel Cloud VC Vicinity DR Drifting SG Snow Grains DU Dust +FC Tornado / Waterspout BL Blowing IC Ice Crystals SA Sand SS Sand Storm SH Showers PL Ice Pellets HZ Haze DS Dust Storm TS Thunderstorm PY Spray FZ Freezing GR Hail GS Snow Pellets UP Unknown Precipitation

Decoding Text Reports n METAR Observations KXYZ 011153Z AUTO 17012G25 110V200 1/2SM R30L/3500V5000FT TSSN VV002 SCT008 BKN012 OVC020CB M02/M04 A2992 RMK A02 PKWND 17028/0123 TSB05 PRESFR SLP132 OCNL LTGICCG ALQDS MOV NE SNINCR 1/2 4/002 P0010 60025 70032 T10181042 11010 21051 400151075 56029= Cloud Layers: VV002 = Indefinite Ceiling, Vertical Visibility = 200 ft (AGL) SCT008 = Scattered clouds at 800 ft (AGL). SCT = 1/8 to 3/8 coverage BKN012 = Broken clouds at 1200 ft (AGL). BKN = 4/8 to 7/8 coverage OVC020CB = Overcast clouds including Cumulonimbus at 2000 ft (AGL) Designator Coverage Remarks CLR 0/8 No clouds below 12,000 ft. From Automated Observation SKC 0/8 No clouds observed by manual observer FEW 1/8 2/8 No Ceiling SCT 3/8 4/8 No Ceiling BKN 5/8 7/8 Ceiling OVC 8/8 Ceiling VV Obscured Indefinite Ceiling, Vertical Visibility CB TCU Cumulonimbus Clouds Towering Cumulus Note: No clouds from ASOS/AWOS systems are reported above FL120. Clouds above FL120 can be added by human observer.

Decoding Text Reports n METAR Observations KXYZ 011153Z AUTO 17012G25 110V200 1/2SM R30L/3500V5000FT TSSN VV002 SCT008 BKN012 OVC020CB M02/M04 A2992 RMK A02 PKWND 17028/0123 TSB05 PRESFR SLP132 OCNL LTGICCG ALQDS MOV NE SNINCR 1/2 4/002 P0010 60025 70032 T10181042 11010 21051 400151075 56029= Temperature/Dew Point: M02/M04 Temperature = -2 deg C (M indicates temp below zero) Dew Point = -4 deg C MM indicates a missing temperature or dew point Altimeter: A2992 Altimeter setting of 29.92 inches of mercury. Indicates Station altitude when altimeter is set to this setting and aircraft at station Remarks: A02 Indicates automated observation with the ability to detect precipitation types. A01 Indicates automated observation with no ability to detect precipitation types, so present weather is not included in METAR.

Decoding Text Reports n METAR Observations KXYZ 011153Z AUTO 17012G25 110V200 1/2SM R30L/3500V5000FT TSSN VV002 SCT008 BKN012 OVC020CB M02/M04 A2992 RMK A02 PKWND 17028/0123 TSB05 PRESFR SLP132 OCNL LTGICCG ALQDS MOV NE SNINCR 1/2 4/002 P0010 60025 70032 T10181042 11010 21051 400151075 56029= Remarks: PKWND 17028/0123 Peak wind gust of 170 deg at 28 kts, observed at 0123Z TSB05 Thunderstorm began at 05 minutes past the hour PRESFR Pressure falling rapidly SLP132 Sea Level Pressure of 1013.2 mb. Basic interpretation rule: If 3 digit number is < 500, put a 10 in front to get SLP, 132 = 1013.2 mb If 3 digit number is >500, put a 9 in front to get SLP, 996 = 999.6 mb Or, put a 9 or 10 in front and see which one brings SLP closer to 1000.0 OCNL LTGICCG ALQDS MOV NE Occasional Lightning In Cloud and Cloud to Ground All Quadrants Moving Northeast. OCNL (Occasional) = less than 1 flash per minute FRQ (Frequent) = 1-6 flashes per minute CONS (Continuous) = more than 6 flashes per minute CC = Cloud to Cloud IC = In Cloud CG = Cloud to Ground CA = Cloud to Air

Decoding Text Reports n METAR Observations KXYZ 011153Z AUTO 17012G25 110V200 1/2SM R30L/3500V5000FT TSSN VV002 SCT008 BKN012 OVC020CB M02/M04 A2992 RMK A02 PKWND 17028/0123 TSB05 PRESFR SLP132 OCNL LTGICCG ALQDS MOV NE SNINCR 1/2 4/002 P0010 60025 70032 T10181042 11010 21051 400151075 56029= Remarks: SNINCR 1/2 Snow Increase on ground, 1 inch increase in last hour, 2 inches total depth 4/002 Snow Depth = 2 inches total on ground (If not snowing, provided with augmented observation in morning, provided as snow increases during snowfall P0010 Precipitation in past hour = 0.10 inches (liquid equivalent) 60025 Precipitation in past 3 or 6 hours = 0.25 inches (liquid equivalent) 3 hour totals at 0300, 0900, 1500, and 2100 UTC observations 6 hour totals at 0000, 0600, 1200 and 1800 UTC observations 70032 Precipitation in past 24 hours = 0.32 inches (liquid equivalent) Provided at 1200 UTC observation

Decoding Text Reports n METAR Observations KXYZ 011153Z AUTO 17012G25 110V200 1/2SM R30L/3500V5000FT TSSN VV002 SCT008 BKN012 OVC020CB M02/M04 A2992 RMK A02 PKWND 17028/0123 TSB05 PRESFR SLP132 OCNL LTGICCG ALQDS MOV NE SNINCR 1/2 4/002 P0010 60025 70032 T10181042 11010 21051 400151075 56029= Remarks: T10181042 Temp and Dew Point with additional accuracy. T indicates Temp group next 4 digits provide actual measured temp and dew point. First digit indicated positive (0) or negative (1) value, next 3 digits are value with tenths Temp = -1.8 deg C, Dew Point = -4.2 deg C 11010 Max Temp (1) past 3 or 6 hours. 3 hour max for observations at 0300, 0900, 1500 and 2100 UTC. 6 hour max for obs at 0000, 0600, 1200 and 1800 UTC Max temp past 6 hours = -1.0 deg C 21051 Min Temp (2) past 3 or 6 hours. 3 hour min for observations at 0300, 0900, 1500 and 2100 UTC. 6 hour min for obs at 0000, 0600, 1200 and 1800 UTC Min temp past 6 hours = -5.1 deg C 400151075 Max/Min Temp group (4) past 24 hours. Provided at local midnight obs. Max Temp past 24 hours = 1.5 deg C Min Temp past 24 hours = -7.5 deg C

n Decoding Text Reports METAR Observations KXYZ 011153Z AUTO 17012G25 110V200 1/2SM R30L/3500V5000FT TSSN VV002 SCT008 BKN012 OVC020CB M02/M04 A2992 RMK A02 PKWND 17028/0123 TSB05 PRESFR SLP132 OCNL LTGICCG ALQDS MOV NE SNINCR 1/2 4/002 P0010 60025 70032 T10181042 11010 21051 400151075 56029= Remarks: 56029 5 Pressure Tendency Group. Next digit indicates pressure tendency for past 3 hours: Number Meaning 0 Pressure increasing then decreasing, but higher than 3 hours ago 1 Pressure increasing then steady 2 Pressure increasing steadily 3 Pressure Steady then increasing 4 Pressure Steady 5 Pressure decreasing then increasing 6 Pressure decreasing then steady 7 Pressure decreasing steadily 8 Pressure steady then decreasing 029 Pressure change in mb = 2.9 mb change in past 3 hours = End of Report $ Indicates maintenance is required on system

n Decoding Text Reports METAR Observations KXYZ 011153Z AUTO 17012G25 110V200 1/2SM R30L/3500V5000FT TSSN VV002 SCT008 BKN012 OVC020CB M02/M04 A2992 RMK A02 PKWND 17028/0123 TSB05 PRESFR SLP132 OCNL LTGICCG ALQDS MOV NE SNINCR 1/2 4/002 P0010 60025 70032 T10181042 11010 21051 400151075 56029= Remarks: Meaning: RVRNO Runway Visual Range not available PWINO Present Weather not available PNO Precipitation amount not available FRZRANO Freezing rain detection not available TSNO Thunderstorm detection not available SLPNO Sea Level Pressure not available SFC VIS Surface Visibility as measured from ground observer TWR VIS Tower Visibility as measured from tower observer FIRST First observation with manual observer present LAST Last observation with manual observer present NOSPECI Indicates no SPECI intermediate observations are available ACFT MSHP Indicates an aircraft accident has occurred at the airport ACSL SW-NW Altocumulus Standing Lenticular Southwest through Northwest ROTOR CLD W Rotor Cloud West

Decoding Text Reports n Terminal Aerodrome Forecast - TAF Prepared by NWS Forecast Offices (WFO) n 24 or 30 Hour Forecast, Issued at 0000, 0600, 1200 and 1800 UTC, amendments (AMD) issued as needed n Prevailing and temporary conditions of the following phenomenon by time period for a 5 sm radius from airport: Winds n n Visibility n Weather n Clouds n n n Speed in knots in most TAFs, mps in Russia/China and kph in some former British colonies Low Level Wind Shear Statute miles in North America, Meters elsewhere Same codes as used in METAR observations Clouds bases given in hundreds of feet AGL Cloud Types (CB, TCU when present) Vertical Obscuration (VV)

Decoding Text Reports n Terminal Aerodrome Forecast - TAF KABC 251140Z 2512/2612 16012G25KT P6SM VCTS SCT060 BKN120 FM251600 VRB15G30KT 3SM TSRA BKN010CB OVC060 TEMPO 2518/2520 1/2SM +TSRA OVC005 FM252200 31010G25KT P6SM FEW030 SCT120 WS020/24050KT FM260400 VRB03KT P6SM SKC PROB40 0610 1/4SM FG VV002 FM261000 00000KT P6SM SKC Station ID: KABC Issuance Time: 251140Z 25 = 25th day of current month 1140Z = 1140 UTC Forecast Period: 2512/2612 2512 = 25 th day of month at 1200 UTC 2612 = 26 th day of month at 1200 UTC Forecast period extends from 1200 UTC on the 25 th through 1200 UTC on the 26th Prevailing Conds: 50% or greater probability of occurrence for greater than ½ of the sub-divided forecast time period. Includes initial forecast and all FM groups. Winds: 16012G25KT Wind from 160 deg true north at 12 kts gusting to 25 kts Visibility: P6SM Visibility Unrestricted of 6 or more statute miles Weather: VCTS Thunderstorms in the vicinity (area from 5-10 sm from airport)

Decoding Text Reports n Terminal Aerodrome Forecast - TAF KABC 251140Z 2512/2612 16012G25KT P6SM VCTS SCT060 BKN120 FM251600 VRB15G30KT 3SM TSRA BKN010CB OVC060 TEMPO 2518/2520 1/2SM +TSRA OVC005 FM252200 31010G25KT P6SM FEW030 SCT120 WS020/24050KT FM260400 VRB03KT P6SM SKC PROB40 0610 1/4SM FG VV002 FM261000 00000KT P6SM SKC Temporary Change to Prevailing Conditions: TEMPO Used to indicate temporary fluctuations in meteorological conditions that have a 50% or greater probability of occurrence, will last less than 1 hour for each occurrence, and in aggregate cover less than half of the TEMPO time period. TEMPO 2518/2520 Temporary conditions from 1800 to 2000 UTC on the 25th Winds: ----- If no winds provided in TEMPO, same winds as in prevailing conditions Visibility: 1/2SM Visibility of ½ statue mile Weather: +TSRA Thunderstorms with heavy rain Clouds: OVC005 Overcast (8/8 coverage) clouds at 500 ft (AGL)

Decoding Text Reports n Terminal Aerodrome Forecast - TAF KABC 251140Z 2512/2612 16012G25KT P6SM VCTS SCT060 BKN120 FM251600 VRB15G30KT 3SM TSRA BKN010CB OVC060 TEMPO 2518/2520 1/2SM +TSRA OVC005 FM252200 31010G25KT P6SM FEW030 SCT120 WS020/24050KT FM260400 VRB03KT P6SM SKC PROB40 0610 1/4SM FG VV002 FM261000 00000KT P6SM SKC Prevailing Conds: FM252200 New set of prevailing conditions starting at 2200 UTC on the 25th Winds: 31010G25KT Winds from 310 deg (true north) at 10 kts gusting to 25 kts Visibility: P6SM Unrestricted visibility of 6 statute miles or more Weather: ----- No significant weather if none included Clouds: FEW030 SCT120 Few (1/8-2/8 coverage) clouds at 3000 ft (AGL) Scattered (3/8-4/8 coverage) clouds at 12,000 ft (AGL) Wind Shear: WS020/24050KT Low Level Wind Shear at 2000 ft AGL, wind from 240 deg at 50 kts at specified altitude. Only used for non-convective wind shear. Forecasted when the following criteria is met: When one or more PIREP is received that reported non-convective LLWS within 2000 ft AGL in the vicinity of the airport, causing an indicated air speed loss or gain of 20 kts or more, AND/OR, VWS of 10kts or more per 100 ft in a layer more than 200 ft thick is reported or is reliably expected within 2000 ft AGL.

Decoding Text Reports n Terminal Aerodrome Forecast - TAF KABC 251140Z 2512/2612 16012G25KT P6SM VCTS SCT060 BKN120 FM251600 VRB15G30KT 3SM TSRA BKN010CB OVC060 TEMPO 2518/2520 1/2SM +TSRA OVC005 FM252200 31010G25KT P6SM FEW030 SCT120 WS020/24050KT FM260400 VRB03KT P6SM SKC PROB40 0610 1/4SM FG VV002 FM261000 00000KT P6SM SKC Change to Prevailing Conds: PROB40 The Probability group is used by NWS forecasters to forecast a probability (between 30% and 50% chance) of a weather phenomenon occurring. PROB40 cannot be used in the first 6 hours of a TAF. Note that PROB30 is no longer used. Change: PROB40 0610 30%-50% chance of new conditions between 0600 and 1000 UTC Winds: ----- No change to prevailing wind conditions Visibility: 1/4SM Visibility ¼ statute mile Weather: FG Fog (used only when visibility is less than 5/5 sm, BR used otherwise) Clouds: VV002 Indefinite ceiling, vertical visibility of 200 ft AGL

Decoding Text Reports n Terminal Aerodrome Forecast - TAF Other Terms used in TAFs: NSW: No Significant Weather Only used in TEMPO group to indicate no significant weather VA: Volcanic Ash Always included when volcanic ash is present Visibility: 9999 International TAF use for unrestricted visibility, means 10 KM or greater NIL: visibility. 40KM Some countries forecast visibilities greater than 10 KM, such as New Zealand TAF suspended Until complete data is received to issue next scheduled TAF A forecaster usually requires 2 consecutive hourly METAR observations before a TAF is issued for a terminal. No significant weather TX23/22Z: Maximum Temp Forecast (selected intl airports) Max temp of 23 deg C expected at 2200 UTC TN11/13Z: Minimum Temp Forecast (selected intl airports) Minimum temp of 11 deg C expected at 1300 UTC

n Decoding Text Reports Pilot Reports PIREP Actual observations from pilots n Aircraft location n Time n Altitude n Aircraft Type n Conditions Temperature Turbulence Icing Wind Velocity & Shear Clouds Thunderstorms Volcanic Ash n Source

n Decoding Text Reports Pilot Reports PIREP DCA UA /OV DCA190005 /TM 2042 /FL030 /TP E170 /IC LGT RIME= IAD UA /OV AML360005 /TM 2004 /FL012 /TP SR22 /IC MOD RIME= IAD UA /OV AML180003 /TM 1944 /FL032 /TP FA90 /SK OVC032 /RM DURD= DEN UA /OV KDEN322010/TM 1943/FL380/TP B737/TA M60/WV 346083KT/TB LGT CHOP/RM AWC-WEB:SWA= SFO UA /OV 3930N 13450W/TM 2118/FL310/TP B744/TB LGT-MOD CHOP/RM ZOA CWSU = SEA UA /OV SEA146030/TM 2043/FL145/TP B738/SK TOPS 210/TB CONT LGT MOD/RM DURGC 145-170..ZSE = SEA UA /OV SEA160040/TM 2029/FL170/TP DH8/TB CONT LGT CHOP/RM DURGD 170-140..ZSE = CVG UA /OV CVG340010 /TM 2020 /FL090 /TP E145 /TA M03 /IC NEG /RM IMC AT 090= CVG UA /OV CVG270005 /TM 1744 /FLUNKN /TP CRJ7 /SK OVC007 / RM DURC NO TOPS THRU 130/ M01 070/ 220032/070=

n AIRMET Decoding Text Reports Issued by AWC for the following conditions: n Moderate Icing (Zulu) n Moderate Turbulence (Tango) n IFR & Mountain Obscurations (Sierra) n Strong Surface Winds (> 30 kts) n Non-Convective LLWS below 2000 ft Issued at 0300, 0900, 1500 and 2100 UTC Valid for next 6 hours

n Decoding Text Reports AIRMET Examples WAUS45 KKCI 141645 AAA WA5T SLCT WA 141645 AMD AIRMET TANGO UPDT 3 FOR TURB VALID UNTIL 142100....SEE SIGMET VICTOR.... AIRMET TURB...WY UT CO...UPDT FROM BPI TO 50E OCS TO CHE TO 30NE DTA TO SLC TO BPI MOD TURB BLW 140. CONDS ENDG 21Z. WAUS45 KKCI 141445 WA5Z SLCZ WA 141445 AIRMET ZULU UPDT 2 FOR ICE AND FRZLVL VALID UNTIL 142100. AIRMET ICE...WY UT CO AZ NM FROM BFF TO GLD TO 50W LBL TO ABQ TO 30N PHX TO 60S EED TO EED TO SLC TO BFF MOD ICE BLW 160. CONDS CONTG BYD 21Z THRU 03Z. WAUS45 KKCI 141445 WA5S SLCS WA 141445 AIRMET SIERRA UPDT 2 FOR IFR AND MTN OBSCN VALID UNTIL 142100. AIRMET IFR...WY UT CO AZ NM FROM 60SW DDY TO BFF TO GLD TO 50W LBL TO CIM TO DRK TO 40E ILC TO 60ESE MLD TO 60SW DDY CIG BLW 010/VIS BLW 3SM PCPN/BR. CONDS ENDG 21Z WY/UT..CONTG RMNDR BYD 21Z THRU 03Z.

The G-AIRMET

Decoding Text Reports n G-AIRMET Graphical representation for text AIRMETs Issued at 0300, 0900, 1500 and 2100 UTC Display supplemental 00,03,06,09 and 12 hour snapshot graphics of aviation hazards in the 0-6 hour AIRMET valid period as well as the 6-12 hour outlook period. Provided in BUFR format for use in tools, and available as web graphics. Intended to provide a more refined depiction of aviation hazards described in the AIRMET text at more frequent time intervals. Eventually the G-AIRMET will be generated and text will be derived from the graphics.

Decoding Text Reports n Area Forecast (FA) Issued by AWC every 8 hours for a 12 hour forecast period plus a 6 hour outlook period Forecast conditions of MVFR and VFR areas and n Thunderstorms and precipitation n Clouds (bases, tops, amount) n Visibilities between 3 and 6 statute miles n Sustained surface winds of 20 kts or more

n Decoding Text Reports Area Forecast Example FAUS45 KKCI 151145 FA5W SLCC FA 151145 SYNOPSIS AND VFR CLDS/WX SYNOPSIS VALID UNTIL 160600 CLDS/WX VALID UNTIL 160000...OTLK VALID 160000-160600 ID MT WY NV UT CO AZ NM. SEE AIRMET SIERRA FOR IFR CONDS AND MTN OBSCN. TS IMPLY SEV OR GTR TURB SEV ICE LLWS AND IFR CONDS. NON MSL HGTS DENOTED BY AGL OR CIG.. SYNOPSIS...UPR LVL LOW 12Z SWRN AZ FCST MOV EWD INTO XTRM SWRN NM BY 06Z. NRN PAC TROF WL MOV INTO XTRM NRN ID-ERN WA BY 06Z. AT SFC..HI PRES RIDGE CONTG OVR CNTRL ROCKIES THRU 06Z. CDFNT 12Z SERN NM WL CONT SWD INTO SWRN TX BY 18Z. CDFNT 12Z ERN AZ WL MOV SEWD INTO MEXICO BY 00Z.. ID NRN...SCT030-050 SCT120. 18Z SCT080 BKN150. TOPS FL200. OTLK...VFR BECMG MVFR CIG PCPN/BR 04Z. CNTRL MTNS...SCT CI. 19Z SCT150. OTLK...VFR. SWRN...SCT CI. OTLK...VFR. SERN...SCT-BKN065. TOPS 080. 18Z SCT070. OTLK...VFR. CO MTNS AND WEST... SCT080 OVC100-120. TOPS FL180. SCT -SHSN MNLY MTNS. 19Z SCT100 SCT140. OTLK...VFR. FOOTHILLS/PLAINS... ERN PTN PLAINS..SCT- BKN100-120. TOPS 150. OTLK...VFR. FOOTHILLS/WRN PTN PLAINS...BKN070. TOPS FL180. TIL 15Z OCNL VIS 3-5SM BR. BECMG 1618 SCT090 SCT150. OTLK...VFR.

n Decoding Text Reports SIGMET Issued by AWC for the following conditions: n Severe Icing n Severe Turbulence n Thunderstorms Convective SIGMETs issued separately for CONUS n Widespread Duststorm or Sandstorm n Volcanic Ash n Tropical Cyclones Phenomenon must affect an area of at least 3000 square miles Issued for CONUS, AK, HI, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean, North Pacific and North Atlantic

Decoding Text Reports n SIGMET Issued for a 4 hour period as needed for Icing and Turbulence, 6 hour period for Volcanic Ash and Tropical Cyclones with 12 hour outlook Referenced as: n n n n AWC for CONUS - NOVEMBER through YANKEE, excluding SIERRA and TANGO AWC for Oakland Oceanic FIR - ALFA through HOTEL Honolulu MWO for Oakland Oceanic FIR - NOVEMBER through ZULU AAWU for Anchorage FIR - INDIA through MIKE

n Decoding Text Reports SIGMET Examples WSUS05 KKCI 141355 WS5V SLCV WS 141355 SIGMET VICTOR 1 VALID UNTIL 141755 ID UT NV CA AND CSTL WTRS FROM BOI TO PIH TO ILC TO 60SW RZS TO PYE TO FMG TO BOI OCNL SEV TURB BTN FL240 AND FL360 DUE TO WNDSHR ASSOCD WITH JTST AND UPR TROF. RPRTD BY ACFT E OF CZQ BTN FL310 AND FL340. CONDS MOVG SLOLY SWD AND CONTG BYD 1755Z.

Decoding Text Reports n Convective SIGMET Issued every hour for a 2 hour period for: n Severe Thunderstorms (hail >1 in, winds > 50 kts) n Line of Thunderstorms 50 mi long, affecting at least 40% of its length n Area of active thunderstorms at least 3000 sq mi affecting at least 40% of the area Outlook issued for 4 hour period

n Decoding Text Reports Convective SIGMET Example: CONVECTIVE SIGMET 54C VALID UNTIL 1855Z WI IL FROM 30E MSN-40ESE DBQ DMSHG LINE TS 15 NM WIDE MOV FROM 30025KT. TOPS TO FL450. WIND GUSTS TO 50 KT POSS.

Decoding Text Reports n Volcanic Ash Advisories 9 Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (VAAC) Issue advisories when volcanic eruption has occurred or is imminent Issued for 6 hour period, updated every 6 hours

n Decoding Text Reports Volcanic Ash Advisory Example: VOLCANIC ASH ADVISORY ISSUED: 2003JUL10/1300Z VAAC: WASHINGTON VOLCANO: ANATAHAN 0804-20 LOCATION: N1621E14540 AREA: MARIANA ISLANDS SUMMIT ELEVATION: 2585 FT (788 M) ADVISORY NUMBER: 2003/251 INFORMATION SOURCE: GOES 9 IMAGERY. GFS MODEL WINDS FORECAST ERUPTION DETAILS: ASH AND GAS EMISSIONS SINCE MAY 10. OBS ASH DATE/TIME: 09/1202Z. OBS ASH CLOUD: ASH NOT IDENTIFIABLE FROM SATELLITE DATA. WINDS SFC/FL080 MOVING SW 10-15 KNOTS. FCST ASH CLOUD +6H: SEE SIGMETS. REMARKS: THE ASH PLUME OBSERVED IN VISIBLE IMAGERY IS TOO THIN AND DIFFUSE TO BE SEEN IN INFRARED AND MULTISPECTRAL IMAGAERY. ANY ASH UP TO FL080 SHOULD MOVE TOWARDS THE SW AT 10-15 KNOTS. NEXT ADVISORY: WILL BE ISSUED BY 2003JUL10/1900Z.

Decoding Text Reports n Center Weather Advisories Issued by the Center Weather Service Units for conditions impacting flight in the enroute and terminal environments in the FIR Valid for 2 hours, updated every 2 hours or as needed

n Decoding Text Reports Center Weather Advisory Example: n n CWA - Center Weather Advisory ZID CWA 103 VALID UNTIL 222300 FROM 45NE APE-80W BKW-70WNW IIU-30NE ROD-45NE APE SCT TS. MOVE FROM 30020KT. MAX TOPS ABV FL450. ACTIVITY IS INCREASING. =

n Decoding Text Reports Meteorological Impact Statement Example: n n MIS - Meteorological Impact Statement ZID MIS 03 VALID 221712-230130...FOR ATC PLANNING PURPOSES ONLY... IN ZID E OF A LN FM 30S LOZ-30SE IND-65E HNN...SCT TS DVLPG THRU 21Z...FRMG SML CLUSTERS/BKN LNS. MAX TOPS ABV FL450. MOST TOPS FL380-450. MOV FM 30025KT. N OF A LN FM 45SW TTH-15E BKW SCT MOD CHOP ISOL MOD TURB IN TS OUTFLOW DMSH THRU 21Z.=

Decoding Text Reports n Tropical Cyclone Bulletins Issued by the National Hurricane Center in Miami Created every 6 hours at 0300, 0900, 1500 and 2100 UTC for the Atlantic, Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and Eastern Pacific TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122014 2100 UTC WED AUG 20 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 121.5W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 360SE 240SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 121.5W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 121.4W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.8N 121.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 150SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 20.6N 122.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.6N 123.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.8N 124.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 24.9N 127.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

n Decoding Text Reports Tropical Cyclone Bulletins

Decoding Text Reports n Wind & Temp Aloft Forecast (FD) Created using NWS GRIB numerical forecast data Provides forecast of wind velocity and temperature by altitude for a specific future time Updated every 6 hours from new forecast data

n Decoding Text Reports Wind & Temp Aloft Forecast Examples VALID 010600Z FOR USE 0300-0900Z. TEMPS NEG ABV 24000 FT 3000 6000 9000 12000 18000 24000 30000 34000 39000 MKC 9900 1709+06 2018+00 2130-06 2242-18 2361-30 247242 258848 550252 KAPA FD DATA BASED ON 151200Z. 3000 6000 9000 12000 15000 18000 21000 24000 00Z ------- 1505P03 1804M02 2005M07 2207M13 2410M19 2418M26 2527M32 06Z ------- 2306P01 2309M02 2111M07 2012M13 1914M19 1613M26 1212M32 12Z ------- 2408M00 2510M02 2411M07 2412M12 2312M18 1712M25 1113M32 18Z ------- 2606P04 2907M01 2907M07 2808M12 2808M18 2909M25 3110M32 Wind Direction always reference true north, speed in knots If wind speed exceeds 99 kts, 50 is added to wind direction e.g. 7703 = wind from 270 deg (77-50=27) at 103 kts

Radiosonde Balloons n Weather Balloons are launched twice daily (0000 and 1200 UTC) worldwide As balloon ascends it measures the following: n Pressure, Geopotential Height, Temperature, Dew Point, Wind Velocity n Thermodynamic diagrams (Skew-T/Log-P) can graphically depict the atmosphere profile and calculate various stability indexes and parameters

Skew-T/Log-P Diagram

Break

Weather Trivia Which U.S. state hold the record for the highest 24 hour precipitation amount? A.) Hawaii B.) California C.) Texas D.) Florida

Weather Trivia Which U.S. state hold the record for the highest 24 hour precipitation amount? Answer: A.) Hawaii 38 Kilauea Plantation 1956 B.) California 26.12 Hoegees Camp 1943 C.) Texas 43 inches near Alvin, TX July 24-25 1979 associated with T.S. Claudette D.) Florida 38.7 Yankeetown 1950 World record is 72 inches of rain in 24 hours on La Reunion Island in the Indian Ocean associated with a tropical cyclone Jan 7-8 1966 Colorado record is 11.08 in Holly, June 17, 1965

Aviation Weather Resources Jeppesen n Text and Graphic weather and NOTAMs n www.jetplan.com n www.myjeppesen.com

Aviation Weather Resources NCAR & Univ of Wyoming n Skew-T Log P diagrams n http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/upper/ n http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html

Aviation Weather Resources NWS Denver (Boulder) n Point Specific Forecasts n Radar Data n Satellite Imagery n Forecast Discussion n Aviation Weather n Balloon and Soaring Forecast n http://www.crh.noaa.gov/den/

Aviation Weather Resources Storm Prediction Center n Thunderstorms Forecast n Severe Weather Forecast n Tornado, Hail and Wind Probabilities n http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/

Aviation Weather Resources NOAA Enhanced Data Display n Current Surface Data n http://preview.weather.gov/edd/

Aviation Weather Resources Numerical Model Data n http://ggweather.com/loops/ncep_loops.htm n http://www.met.sjsu.edu/weather/models.html

Aviation Weather Resources Forecast Skew T Log P Diagrams n http://www.stormchaser.niu.edu/machine/ fcstsound.html

Aviation Weather Resources Aviation Weather Center n Aviation weather n G-AIRMET n SIGMETs n PIREPs n Turbulence (GTG) n Icing (CIP and FIP) n Flight Path Tool n http://www.aviationweather.gov/

Break

Weather Trivia Question In 2012, what weather phenomena accounted for the highest number of weather related fatalities in the U.S.? A. Heat B. Floods C. Tornadoes D. Lightning

Weather Trivia Question In 2012, what weather phenomena accounted for the highest number of weather related fatalities in the U.S.? Answer: A. Heat (155) 10 year average = 117 B. Floods (29) - 10 yr avg = 76 / 30 yr avg = 89 C. Tornadoes (70) - 10 yr avg = 109 / 30 yr avg = 74 D. Lightning (28) - 10 yr avg = 35 / 30 yr avg = 52 E. Cold (8) - 10 yr avg = 27 F. Hurricanes (4) - 10 yr avg = 109 / 30 yr avg = 47

Flight Scenario Planning an IFR flight from KAPA to KFLG Flight to be conducted in a Piper Malibu Mirage Planned departure at 1800 UTC (1100 MDT) Personal Minimums include: n Avoid all thunderstorms n Light to moderate turbulence, no severe n Trace to light icing, no moderate or severe n Landing need ½ sm visibility and 500 ft ceiling

Possible Route

300 mb (FL300) Analysis Fri 1200Z

500 mb (FL180) Analysis Fri 1200Z

700 mb (FL100) Analysis Fri 1200Z

850 mb (FL050) Analysis Fri 1200Z

Surface Analysis Fri 1200Z

IR Satellite/Radar Fri 1500Z

Visible Satellite + Lightning Fri 1500Z

Water Vapor Satellite Image Fri 1600Z

Surface Analysis Fri 1500Z

Weather Depiction Aug 23 1600Z

IR Satellite/Radar Aug 23 1430Z

Visible Satellite + Lightning Fri 1600Z

Turbulence Analysis FL050-200 Fri 1500Z

Icing Analysis FL010-300 Fri 1500Z

G-AIRMET Fri 1700Z

KDEN Sounding Fri 1200Z

KFLG Sounding Aug 23 1200Z

METAR and TAFs Fri 1700Z KAPA 221531Z 2216/2312 18005KT P6SM SCT070 BKN120 FM221800 12010KT P6SM VCTS SCT070CB BKN120 TEMPO 2221/2301 VRB20G35KT 4SM TSRA BKN050CB FM230100 18010KT P6SM VCSH SCT035 OVC060 TEMPO 2301/2304 VRB15G25KT 4SM TSRA BKN035CB FM230400 22007KT P6SM SCT050 OVC080 PROB30 2304/2308 -SHRA BKN050 FM230800 22007KT P6SM SCT080 BKN120= KAPA 221653Z 00000KT 10SM FEW075 SCT110 OVC140 19/12 A3021 RMK AO2 SLP167 T01940117= KGUC 221715Z AUTO 03003KT 10SM CLR 14/08 A3034 RMK AO1= KFMN 221653Z 10005KT 10SM CLR 18/12 A3021 RMK AO2 SLP173 T01830122 KFLG 221720Z 2218/2318 22009KT P6SM FEW020 SCT030 BKN070 TEMPO 2218/2222 -SHRA BKN020 FM230200 VRB03KT P6SM SCT030= KFLG 221657Z 23008KT 10SM SCT010 SCT019 OVC080 15/11 A3029 RMK AO2 SLP176 T01500106=

NWS Aviation Discussion Fri 1730Z APA TSTMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY EARLY TO MID AFTN WITH HIGHEST THREAT FM 21Z-01Z. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG STORMS WHICH MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH. COULD SEE VISIBILITIES DROP DOWN TO 1-3 MILES WITH CEILINGS BLO 3000 FT FOR PERIODS UP TO 30 MINUTES ANY TIME BETWEEN 21Z AND 01Z IF AIRPORTS TAKE A DIRECT HIT FM STORMS. AFTER 01Z CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AS TSTMS MOVE OFF TO THE NE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DISTURBANCE MENTIONED ABV. FLG FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BUT IS LIKELY TO BE WEAK/SUPPRESSED IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN ONE OF THESE SHOWERS...GREATEST AT KINW. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AFTER 02Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

Friday Observation Data So we have looked at current data from Friday morning Any areas of concern that may impact the flight? Now let s look at some forecast data

Precip Accumulation 1500-2100 UTC Fri

Precip Accumulation 2100-0300 UTC Fri

Flight Conditions Forecast Aug 25 0000Z

Turbulence Forecast FL050-200 Aug 24 1500Z

Icing Forecast FL010-150 Aug 24 1500Z

FL100 Winds/Temps Forecast Aug 24 1500Z

Flight Conditions Fri 1800Z

Flight Conditions Sat 0000Z

Turbulence FL050-200 Fri 1900Z

Icing FL010-300 Fri 1900Z

Convective Outlook Fri 1200Z Sat 1200Z

KAPA Forecast Sounding Fri 1800Z

KFLG Forecast Sounding Sat 0000Z

RH Plan View Fri 1800Z

RH Profile View Fri 1800Z

Temp Plan View Fri 1800Z

Temp Profile View Fri 1800Z

Turbulence Plan View Fri 1800Z

Turbulence Profile View Fri 1800Z

Icing Plan View Fri 1800Z

Icing Profile View Fri 1800Z

Decision Time n What Hazards are of concern? n What options exists?

KAPA 221753Z 00000KT 10SM -RA FEW050 BKN100 OVC140 19/12 A3019 RMK AO2 RAB42 SLP160 P0000 60000 T01940122 10194 20156 58005= KGUC 221735Z AUTO 35003KT 10SM FEW070 SCT075 14/08 A3034 RMK AO1= KFMN 221753Z 10007KT 10SM CLR 19/12 A3019 RMK AO2 SLP171 60001 T01940122 10194 20150 58002= KFLG 221757Z 19008KT 10SM FEW026 SCT043 OVC080 16/10 A3028 RMK AO2 SLP170 60000 T01610100 10161 20111 58000=

NEXRAD Reflectivity Fri 1800Z

Visible Satellite + Lightning Fri 1800Z

Route Weather Fri 1800Z

NEXRAD Reflectivity Fri 1900Z

Visible Satellite + Lightning Fri 1900Z

Route Weather Fri 1900Z

NEXRAD Reflectivity Fri 2000Z

Visible Satellite + Lightning Fri 2000Z

Enroute Weather Fri 2000Z

Enroute Weather Fri 2030Z