HVX-HURREVAC (Beta) Webinar Series

HVX-HURREVAC (Beta) Webinar Series Day 1 - An introduction to HURREVAC and the new web-based HVX platform

2018 HVX-HURREVAC Webinar Series 1. Intro to HURREVAC and General Overview of the Program (August 6 th ) 2. Evacuation Timing Features (August 7 th ) 3. Wind Forecast Features (August 8 th ) 4. Additional Program Tools and Features (August 9 th ) 5. Applying HURREVAC (August 10 th ) Visit www.hurrevac.com/training to register for live webinars or watch past recorded sessions

Introductions Instructor: Karen Townsend, Sea Island Software (karentownsend@seaislandsoftware.biz) Moderator: Dib Oglesby, Sea Island Software (dib@seaislandsoftware.biz)

HURREVAC Sponsors HURREVAC receives funding and technical support from cooperating agencies of the National Hurricane Program National Weather Service U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

What is HURREVAC? HURREVAC is the National Hurricane Program s decision support tool for emergency management Tracks storms worldwide using forecasts from the National Hurricane Center and other weather forecast offices Couples these real-time forecasts with results of FEMA/USACE Hurricane Evacuation Studies to assist the local emergency manager in determining evacuation timing

Who uses HURREVAC? Program is restricted to government emergency management use only Approximately 14,000 registered users in federal, state, and local government Register for free access at www.hurrevac.com

Two Platforms for 2018 For Windows Desktop For Web Browser (Operational) HVX-HURREVAC (Beta)

www.hurrevac.com is the support website for Desktop HURREVAC and the new web-based HVX-HURREVAC

Key Similarities Hurricane data Graphical forecast information NHC text products Hurricane evacuation study integration Localized reporting Wind timing Evacuation timing

Key Differences Web browser-based No software to install Use your computer, tablet, or phone Access your profile/preferences anywhere

Key Differences Training modules Intro to HVX/Tutorials Decision-making scenarios

Key Differences Storm Model (SLOSH) Display MOMS and MEOWs MEOW mixer/recommender

HVX-HURREVAC Roll Out Timeline January 2018 Web-based HVX-HURREVAC training begins with L324 Desktop HURREVAC training discontinued Hurricane season 2018 Offer beta of HVX-HURREVAC to all registered users Identify gaps in functionality Hurricane season 2019 HVX-HURREVAC fully operational Gaps in functionality filled? Desktop HURREVAC replaced by new platform?

Forecast Data Sources NOAA s National Hurricane Center (NHC) and various National Weather Service offices Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) US Navy s Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Tropical Weather Outlook

National Hurricane Center post tropical tropical storm hurricane tropical storm tropical depression or potential tropical cyclone forecast advisory packages at 6-hour intervals for the duration of a tropical cyclone (5AM, 11AM, 5PM, and 11PM) intermediate A advisories when storm is near land with watches and warnings issued

NHC Forecast/Advisory for Hurricane Ike

Forecast positions out to 3 days have tropical storm wind extent information Long-range 4 & 5 day forecasts have more limited information

Other NWS Data Sources Source of gridded data for wind and surge probabilities is the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD)

Other NWS Data Sources River Forecast Centers river gages & flood outlooks Weather Prediction Center 3-day quantitative precipitation forecast NOAA tide gages

Evacuation Data Sources Hurricane Evacuation Study (HES) clearance times are available for vulnerable coastal jurisdictions.

Hurricane Evacuation Study (HES) Who should evacuate during a hurricane threat? When should the evacuation order be given to ensure all evacuees have enough time to get to safety?

Hurricane Evacuation Study Components Hazards Analysis Vulnerability Analysis Behavioral Analysis Shelter Analysis Transportation Analysis

HES Clearance Times The amount of time it will take to evacuate an area, from the time the first vehicle leaves until the last vehicle reaches an assumed point of safety. Clearance times vary depending on: Scenarios Storm intensity Tourist Occupancy Response

Evacuation Timing in HURREVAC Storm forecast Data from Hurricane Evacuation Study Arrival time of tropical storm force winds - Clearance = Time Evacuation Start Time * * Necessity of evacuation should not be inferred by this calculation. HURREVAC only provides timing guidance on how soon an evacuation must start IF A DECISION TO EVACUATE IS MADE. Evacuation decisions are complex and require consultation with emergency management and NWS officials.

Hurricane Ike approximately 48 hours from landfall in Texas

Hurricane Ike tropical stormforce winds beginning in Texas in approximately 30 hours

Evacuation Start Times calculated for Hurricane Ike

( ) The HVX-HURREVAC Interface

HVX-HURREVAC (Beta) Webinar Series Day 2 Evacuation Timing Features

Introductions Instructor: Karen Townsend, Sea Island Software (karentownsend@seaislandsoftware.biz) Moderator: Dib Oglesby, Sea Island Software (dib@seaislandsoftware.biz)

Hurricane Ike approximately 48 hours from landfall in Texas

Deterministic Calculation Hurricane Ike tropical stormforce winds beginning in Texas in approximately 30 hours

Evacuation Start Times calculated for Hurricane Ike using Desktop HURREVAC

Probabilistic Calculation Hurricane Ike tropical stormforce winds earliest reasonable onset in Texas is 24 hours

Evacuation Start Times calculated for Hurricane Ike using HVX-HURREVAC with Earliest Reasonable times

Key Differences in Evacuation Timing between HVX and Desktop HURREVAC 1. Tropical storm force wind arrival timing Desktop HURREVAC uses deterministic wind forecast from first 72 hours of forecast HVX uses probabilistic wind forecast from the entire 120 hour forecast 2. Evacuation Study Clearance Times Desktop HURREVAC forces user to make selection of a specific clearance time for timing calculation HVX allows user to keep a range of clearance times under consideration 3. Functionality Desktop HURREVAC s methodology is fully documented and has been tested over many storm seasons HVX evacuation timing tools are still incomplete and should not be used for operational decision making in 2018

HVX-HURREVAC (Beta) Webinar Series Day 3 Wind Forecast Features

Introductions Instructor: Karen Townsend, Sea Island Software (karentownsend@seaislandsoftware.biz) Moderator: Dib Oglesby, Sea Island Software (dib@seaislandsoftware.biz) Moderator: Carla Quinn, USACE Baltimore District (carla.m.quinn@usace.army.mil)

Probabilistic versus Deterministic Wind Forecast Products

Deterministic wind timing when close to landfall

Deterministic wind timing when close to landfall Wind Timing report is for all counties within the 72-hr forecast wind swath

Wind Timing Chart currently only available in Desktop HURREVAC

Single Area is an hour-byhour analysis of forecast wind conditions within one county. Single Area Report currently only available in Desktop HURREVAC

Probabilistic wind timing when storm is distant

Probabilistic wind timing when storm is distant Wind Probabilities report is for all counties within the area of at least a 5% chance of tropical storm-force winds.

Probabilities are given as IP (CP) Individual Onset Probability is the probability of the event beginning during an individual time period (i.e. between forecast hours 72 and 96) Cumulative Probability is the probability of the event occurring any time up to a forecast hour (i.e. between forecast hours 0 and 96) X is used where a probability is less than 1%

The Wind Probabilities Single Location Report further breaks down the probabilities into 6-hour increments. The individual onset probability (number outside of parenthesis) represents the odds of 34/50/64kt winds occurring within the 6-hour window. Single Area Report currently only available in Desktop HURREVAC

HVX-HURREVAC (Beta) Webinar Series Day 4 Additional Program Features and Tools

Inland Flooding Products

Storm Surge Products and Tools in HVX

The SLOSH Model Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes A numerical model used to estimate storm surge heights for historical, hypothetical, or predicted hurricanes

Storm Surge vs Storm Tide STORM SURGE An abnormal rise of water generated by a storm, over and above the predicted astronomical tide. STORM TIDE The water level rise due to the combination of storm surge and the astronomical tide.

Storm Surge Product Schedule

Maximum Envelop of Water (MEOW) User selects: Category (Cat 3) Landfall direction (wnw) Forward speed (15 mph) Initial tide (High)

Maximum of the Maximums from Worst-case for a particular category storm Combination of many scenarios Forward speed Angle of approach Size (Radius of maximum wind) Initial tide level No single hurricane will produce the regional flooding depicted in a MOM. the MEOWs (MOM)

Storm-Specific Probabilistic Surge P-SURGE Based on NHC official advisory Uncertainties based on historical errors Accounts for uncertainty in: Track (landfall location) Size (Radius of Maximum Winds) Forward speed Intensity Accounts for tide Heights above ground level (P-Surge)

Deterministic SLOSH Limited surge threat to Pensacola area 4 feet or less Slight track shifts can mean a big difference in storm surge for bays

Deterministic SLOSH Significant surge threat to Pensacola area 8 feet or more Slight track shifts can mean a big difference in storm surge for bays

Probabilistic SLOSH (P-Surge) Considerable surge threat to Pensacola area 40-50% of 8 feet or more Slight track shifts can mean a big difference in storm surge for bays

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map Height above ground that the water could reach Reasonable worst-case scenario for any individual location Values have a 10% chance of being exceeded Issuance with hurricane watch In some cases for a tropical storm watch Available 60+ minutes after the advisory release

Storm Surge Products and Tools in HVX SLOSH MOMs and MEOWs are not storm-specific and are tools that can be used at any time

Storm Surge Products and Tools in HVX The Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map is a live layer only and no archive exists P-Surge is archived for specific storm advisories dating back several years

The Weather Prediction Center s Excessive Rainfall Outlook will be added to HVX and desktop HURREVAC in the near future

Storm surge watches and warnings, already in desktop HURREVAC, will be added to HVX in the near future.

HVX-HURREVAC (Beta) Webinar Series Day 5 Applying HURREVAC

Scenario 1 You are the emergency Manager for Mobile County, AL looking at Hurricane Isaac 2012, Advisory 21 1. Is your county within the potential track area? How can you tell the potential location of the storm center 36 hours into the forecast period? 2. Mobile is close to the forecasted track. What is the probability of experiencing hurricane force winds there over the next 120 hours? 3. Assume strengthening is forecast. How will an increase in SS category impact your county s clearance time?

Scenario 2 You are the Emergency Manager for Jackson, MS concerned with the potential for inland flood impacts from an approaching tropical system. 1. How can you determine what the highest recorded flood stage was for the Pearl River near Jackson? 2. How can you see a floodplain map near the gage location? 3. How can you see the rainfall forecast and if any flooding is expected in the next five days?

Scenario 3 You are an Emergency Manager for the State of North Carolina looking at Hurricane Earl 2010, Advisory 29 1. How can you determine what county in your state has the earliest evacuation start time? How much sooner is it than the county with the second earliest evacuation start time? 2. How can you determine which county in your state has the highest forecasted wind speed, and when it could occur? 3. The storm is forecast to stay offshore. How can you determine which of your counties is forecast to be closest to the storm center?

Scenario 4 You are the Emergency Manager for Walton County, FL looking at Hurricane Katrina, Advisory 16 1. The County Commissioners want to see the track forecast trends for the last few advisories. How can you find this information? 2. They also want a briefing graphic for an upcoming press conference that includes the track forecast trends and labels the location of the EOC. How can you create this graphic and what features will you include? 3. They would like you to provide the error cone data to the County GIS Manager. How will you do this?

Scenario 5 You are the Emergency Manager for New Haven, CT looking at Hurricane Sandy 2012, Advisory 27 1. How can you determine the storm surge height above ground that is unlikely to be exceeded? 2. If this were a Category 3 storm moving northwest at 20 MPH, what type of storm surge would be possible at the New Haven gauge? 3. The Harbormaster is curious to know the height of the maximum potential surge from any storm at New Haven Harbor. How will you answer this question?

Scenario 6 You are the Emergency Manager for Flagler County, FL looking at Hurricane Frances 2004, Advisory 34 1. When is your evacuation start time? 2. You expect the public to react slowly to the evacuation start order. How can you account for this in your start time? 3. You want to be reminded to call the local shelter for a status update 3 hours before the arrival of tropical storm for winds. How can you accomplish this?

Scenario 7 You are the Emergency Manager for Virginia Beach, VA looking at Hurricane Earl 2010, Advisory 34 1. You want to know more detail and the confidence level of the forecaster. Where can you look for this information? 2. You want to be notified when Virginia Beach and other local counties are within 12 hours of an evacuation start time. How can you accomplish this? 3. You have set up timeline reminders on your computer that you would like to transfer to all computers in the EOC. What is the quickest way to accomplish this?

Scenario 8 You are the Emergency Manager for Brazoria County, TX looking at Hurricane Rita 2005, Advisory 16 1. The county commissioners want a report on the status of Rita that they can pass on to the mayor. What is the quickest way to accomplish this? 2. The forward speed has been consistently higher than forecast. How can you account for this in your evacuation start time? 3. Can you determine the duration of hurricane force winds expected to impact a specific location?

Scenario 9 You are the Emergency Manager for Escambia County, FL looking at Hurricane Isaac 2012, Advisory 25 1. What is the percent chance of strong tropical storm force winds impacting your county over the next 5 days? 2. How can you see percent chance of all 3 wind categories occurring in all Florida counties? 3. What time period is the most likely for tropical storm force winds to begin? What is the earliest possible onset time for arrival of tropical storm force winds?