Global Warming: Rising Sea Level

Possible explanation for why human-induced global warming is still controversial

2007 - IPCC sea level rise estimate 1. Expansion due to warming of seawater... 28 cm 2. Glaciers and ice caps... 12 cm 3. Mass balance... - 3 cm 4. Increased flow... + 3 cm Range of Estimates: 18-59 cm Total: 40 cm

Example of an IPCC lead author SCIENTIST: Jonathan Overpeck Professor & Director, Environmental Studies Laboratory, Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona Ph.D. Brown University 1985 Former head of NOAA Paleoclimate program Winner of numerous academic awards for climate research

Example of an IPCC editor DIPLOMAT: Sharon Hays Associate Director/ Deputy Director for Science Head of US Delegation to IPCC White House Office of Science & Technology Policy Ph.D. Stanford, 1997 Congressional staff member in science policy, and in OSTP since receiving her Ph.D. Climate change is a global challenge that needs more study.

Changes in sea surface temperature - Maine

Glacier National Park, Montana: Chaney Glacier 1911 2011

Greenland July 8, 2012 July 12, 2012

Ice sheet surge

Greenland

Sea Level Rise: Observed = Projected observed projected

Spatial Variations of SLRD 1950-2009 1960-2009 1970-2009 From: Sallenger, A. H. Jr., et al, 2012.

Sea Level Rise: New Estimates Reference By 2100 (feet) Total Rise (feet) Overpeck, et al., 2006 > 3 13-20 Rahmsorf, 2007 1.6-4.6 - - - Pfeffer, et al., 2008 2.6-6.6 - - -

Ice Cores

Greenhouse Gases in Ice Cores Present day From Brook, E. J., 2005. Science, 25 vol. 310. no. 5752, pp. 1285-12

The Gulf Stream

Increased sea level rise estimates for New England Reference Additions to global rise predictions Yin, et al., 2009 Hu, et al., 2009 Total global + regional + 8 inches + 12-20 inches 2.3-8.3 feet

Overpeck: 3 foot rise

Downtown Providence

Newport

Wickford

Galilee

Quonset

Planning Needs for Rhode Island 1. Seamless digital terrain model LIDAR survey of coastline High-resolution bathymetry of coastal waters 2. Inundation model Storm surge with wave regime superimposed Better understanding of coastal erosion style and rate Expanded Rhode Island sea level and coastal erosion monitoring program

Global Warming: Hurricanes

Assessment of Hurricane Risk Inflation-Adjusted U.S. Insured Catastrophe Losses By Cause of Loss, 1987-2006 ($US billions)

Understanding and a,ribu/ng hurricane variability Storm Energy

Landfall Return Periods: The frequency at which a certain category of hurricane is expected within 75 nm (86 miles) of a given location. Source: Na/onal Hurricane Center

Impacts of Landfalling Storms Strong winds Coastal flooding Large waves and swells Storm surge Inland flooding Heavy precipita/on Severe thunderstorms Tornados Wright & Sullivan, 1980 Image: NASA Earth Observatory

Overwash of barrier beaches

Overwash of barrier beaches LSU Paleotempestology Group "

Shallow Water Coring Fixed piston push core Coring platform Hammer core in marsh Geologists excited to find storm deposits

Iden/fica/on of storm deposits Marsh Core Pond Core Marsh Peat Depth below seafloor (cm) laminated sands lagoon mud (silt & clay) Marsh Peat

Atlan/c hurricanes and climate over the past 1,500 years Mann et al. (2009)

Knutson & Tuleya (2004))

Global climate change: Impact on Rhode Island John King Professor of Oceanography Graduate School of Oceanography University of Rhode Island

Global Warming: What is it? The increase in the measured temperature of the earth s oceans and near-surface air.

Measured temperature increases since 1860 Global annually averaged surface temperatures, based on NASA GISS surface temperature analysis

Global Warming: What s causing it? Increasing CO 2 and other gases in the atmosphere create The Greenhouse Effect

The Greenhouse Effect Some of the energy is reflected back into space. Sun s energy passes through the atmosphere, warming the earth. Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere trap some of the heat. More gases = more heat.

Light spectrum wavelengths

Global Warming: Is it caused by humans? YES!

How does human activity create greenhouse gases? Most greenhouse gases are created by: industrial activity transportation cooling & heating systems in buildings Graph courtesy of Environment Canada

Increased CO 2 emissions = climate change Increasing CO 2 Rising Temperatures Changes in Precipitation Rising Sea Level

Increased greenhouse gases

Global Warming: Rising Temperatures

Global temperatures above normal cooler than normal warmer than normal Global annually averaged surface temperatures, based on NASA GISS surface temperature analysis

Rising Temperatures Courtesy of the Union of Concerned Scientists

Warning Signs in Rhode Island Longer Heat Waves" Electricity Shortages" " Water shortages" " Coastal Flooding & Disappearing Beaches" " Impacts to Fish and Shellfish" " More Diseases from Mosquitoes & Ticks" " Declining Winter Sports" " Increased Smog & Poor Air Quality" " Unhealthy Forests"

Projected increases in three indices of extreme precipitation

Effects of Increased CO 2 : Ocean Water Acidification Ocean water acidification threatens shellfishing in the Bay CO 2 ph As CO 2 in the atmosphere is increasing.. ocean water is becoming more acidic. Acidic water can: dissolve shells make it hard for shellfish to create their skeletons

Losses in per capita income due to climate change

Number of summer days exceeding 90 and 100 degrees

Effects of rising water temperatures on the Bay ECOSYSTEM CHANGES Commercial fishing, tourism, & recreation are threatened by increasing temperatures. More fish kills due to low oxygen events Fewer fish, more jellyfish Lower ecosystem productivity More nuisance and/or toxic algal blooms

Impacts of increased greenhouse gases