ActivityoftheJapanCoastalOcean PredictabilityExperiment -RecentprogressoftheKuroshio forecastandadownscalingstudy- TakashiKagimoto(FRCGC/JAMSTEC)

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ActivityoftheJapanCoastalOcean PredictabilityExperiment -RecentprogressoftheKuroshio forecastandadownscalingstudy- TakashiKagimoto(FRCGC/JAMSTEC)

JCOPEmember YasumasaMiyazawa(FRCGC/JAMSTEC) XinyuGuo(CMES,EhimeUniv.) HideyukiKawajiri(FRCGC/JAMSTEC) TakashiSetou(MitsubishiResearchInstitute) KoseiKomatsu(FisheriesResearchAgency) TakujiWaseda(Univ.Tokyo) HitoshiTamura(FRCGC/JAMSTEC) RuochaoZhang(FRCGC/JAMSTEC) HirofumiSakuma(FRCGC/JAMSTEC)

Contents Whathaveweaccomplished? newdirectionforthejcope (developmentstagetoutilizationstage) examplesofwhatwearedoing summary

Whathaveweaccomplished? Real-timeforecastsystem OGCM Data assimilation SST data SSH data FY2002 JPL/NAVOCEANO FY2001 FY2001 NRL FY2000 POM ARGO/ship data (T/S) FY2002-FY2003 NODC FY2001 NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis QuikSCAT FY2003 NCEP JPL

Nestedoceanmodel Ocean models are based on the Princeton Ocean Model (POM). Highresolution model 1/12 deg. (10km) 45 levels Lowresolution model 1/4 deg. (30km) 21 levels

Verticalcoordinate

Whathaveweaccomplished? Real-timeforecastsystem OGCM Data assimilation SST data SSH data FY2002 JPL/NAVOCEANO FY2001 FY2001 NRL FY2000 POM ARGO/ship data (T/S) FY2002-FY2003 NODC FY2001 NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis QuikSCAT FY2003 NCEP JPL

SSHA Dataassimilation T/P & ERS-1 Jason-1 &GFO NOAA AVHRR GTSPP SST T,S 0-400m Analysis x a Forecast Observation T S x f PH T Forecast error covariance T 1 o f HPH R y Hx Observation error covariance

JCOPEoficialweb-site http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/jcope/

Forecastskil RMS error in surface elevation simulation assimilation

Forecastskil(cont.) RMS error in subsurface temperature and salinity (200m) simulation assimilation

Predictionofthelargemeanderin2004 6/25 8/10 obs. 6/25 initial state 8/10 forecast model

PresentJCOPEactivities investigatemechanismsofthekuroshio pathvariations verifythemodeloutput refinemodelphysicsandnumericalschemes seekforengineeringapplicability downscaling

anticycloniceddies Large meander 07 04 04 04 04 04 01 04 Trigger meander 10 03 07 03 Taiwan 04 03 01 03

Efectofanticycloniceddy(cont.) Trigger Meander Cyclonic eddy Anticyclonic eddy Forecaststartingfrom2003/10/29

Efectofanticycloniceddy(cont.)

Efectofanticycloniceddy(cont.)

ComparisonbetweenJCOPEreanalysisand hydrographicobservation Prompt report JCOPE reanalysis 138E Observation (Jan. 2004) JCOPE SSH JCOPE - obs.

Downscaling Okhotsk Sea model (Inst. low temperature science Hokkaido U.) Seto Inland Sea model (CMES, Ehime Univ.) Tokyo, Sagami, Suruga Bays model (FRCGC) Coral reef model (Tokyo Institute of Technology) 1/300 model (Suzuki 2005)

Anexampleofdownscaling Co-range (color) and co-tidal line (contour) (M 2 tide component) Matsumoto model (1/12 ) Our model (1/108 )

Anexampleofdownscaling(cont.) Co-range (color) and co-tidal line (contour) (O 1 tide component) Matsumoto model (1/12 ) Our model (1/108 )

Anexampleofdownscaling(cont.) Matsumoto model wb at 137.6E wb at 136.5E wb at 136E

An example of downscaling (cont.) Niijima Kozu Miyakejima tidal residual current 50m current field (JCOPE reanalysis)

Summary Wesucceededindevelopinganoceanforecast systemandprovidedtheoutputforthepublic throughourwebserver Westarttousetheoutputfornotonlyscientific purposesbutapplicationsparticularlytothe engineeringpurposes(e.g.scheduleofcommercial vesselsandjamstecdeepseadrilingvessel, Chikyu) JCOPEreanalysissuggests,basedona phenomenologicalapproach,thateitheran anticyclonicorcycloniceddymightplayarolein generatingatriggermeandersouthofkyushuis, andthatanotheranticycloniceddyenhancesthe largemeander(dynamicalapproachisneeded)

Summary(cont.) Whatwedidforthedownscalingisanaccurate simulationofthetidalcurentandinvestigationof itspossibleinteractionwiththekuroshio Thestate-of-the-artforecastsystemstilhas biases(hightemp.biasintheon-shoresideofthe Kuroshio,lowtemp.biasintheof-shoreside) Otherthemes(e.g.sensitivitystudiesofthe numericalmodeltophysicalparameterizationsand schemes,engineeringapplications, )arejust started.

Forecastdiagram Initial condition Observation data Climatological forcing 25days Spin-up 2 months forecast IAU (7days) reanalysis

ForecastoftheKuroshiopath(2005/Sep/22) Prompt report (2005/Sept/07)

ForecastoftheKuroshiopath(2005/Nov/09) 200m temperature sea surface temperature

Applicationtotheoceandriling The JCOPE output can be used for evaluation of whether the deep ocean drilling vessel, Chikyu, can be operated at an area or not.

Applicationtotheoceandriling

Exampleofensembleforecast Path variation in 1999 (Straight path to the large meander) 80days 0day 50days forecast Perturbation in the strength of anticyclonic circulation

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