Snow Survey at the Ancient Forest 27 January 2017

Similar documents
Water information system advances American River basin. Roger Bales, Martha Conklin, Steve Glaser, Bob Rice & collaborators UC: SNRI & CITRIS

Prediction of Snow Water Equivalent in the Snake River Basin

Snowcover accumulation and soil temperature at sites in the western Canadian Arctic

Preliminary Runoff Outlook February 2018

GLACIOLOGY LAB SNOW Introduction Equipment

Surface & subsurface processes in mountain environments

Souris River Basin Spring Runoff Outlook As of March 15, 2018

Vermont Soil Climate Analysis Network (SCAN) sites at Lye Brook and Mount Mansfield

Great Lakes Update. Volume 199: 2017 Annual Summary. Background

Use of the models Safran-Crocus-Mepra in operational avalanche forecasting

Midwest and Great Plains Drought and Climate Summary 20 February 2014

What we are trying to accomplish during the winter season

MEASUREMENT OF PERMAFROST AND SEASONNALY FROZEN GROUND

Raindrops. Precipitation Rate. Precipitation Rate. Precipitation Measurements. Methods of Precipitation Measurement. are shaped liked hamburger buns!

Hydrologic Forecast Centre Manitoba Infrastructure, Winnipeg, Manitoba. FEBRUARY OUTLOOK REPORT FOR MANITOBA February 23, 2018

Flood Risk Assessment

The Documentation of Extreme Hydrometeorlogical Events: Two Case Studies in Utah, Water Year 2005

Upper Missouri River Basin February 2018 Calendar Year Runoff Forecast February 6, 2018

APPLICATION OF AN ARCTIC BLOWING SNOW MODEL

Missouri River Basin Water Management

Impacts of snowpack accumulation and summer weather on alpine glacier hydrology

HyMet Company. Streamflow and Energy Generation Forecasting Model Columbia River Basin

Souris River Basin Spring Runoff Outlook As of March 1, 2019

ESTIMATION OF NEW SNOW DENSITY USING 42 SEASONS OF METEOROLOGICAL DATA FROM JACKSON HOLE MOUNTAIN RESORT, WYOMING. Inversion Labs, Wilson, WY, USA 2

Upper Missouri River Basin December 2017 Calendar Year Runoff Forecast December 5, 2017

Novel Snotel Data Uses: Detecting Change in Snowpack Development Controls, and Remote Basin Snow Depth Modeling

Forecast Challenges for the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center

Hydrologic Forecast Centre Manitoba Infrastructure, Winnipeg, Manitoba. MARCH OUTLOOK REPORT FOR MANITOBA March 23, 2018

Effects of forest cover and environmental variables on snow accumulation and melt

Studying snow cover in European Russia with the use of remote sensing methods

Summary of Manual Snow On Ground Measurements for WMO SPICE

January 2011 Calendar Year Runoff Forecast

Chiang Rai Province CC Threat overview AAS1109 Mekong ARCC

Operational Perspectives on Hydrologic Model Data Assimilation

Land Surface: Snow Emanuel Dutra

Great Lakes Update. Volume 191: 2014 January through June Summary. Vol. 191 Great Lakes Update August 2014

Central Asia Regional Flash Flood Guidance System 4-6 October Hydrologic Research Center A Nonprofit, Public-Benefit Corporation

Using MODIS imagery to validate the spatial representation of snow cover extent obtained from SWAT in a data-scarce Chilean Andean watershed

How to assess a snowpack with your group:

P. Marsh and J. Pomeroy National Hydrology Research Institute 11 Innovation Blvd., Saskatoon, Sask. S7N 3H5

ESTIMATING SNOWMELT CONTRIBUTION FROM THE GANGOTRI GLACIER CATCHMENT INTO THE BHAGIRATHI RIVER, INDIA ABSTRACT INTRODUCTION

Proceedings, International Snow Science Workshop, Breckenridge, Colorado, 2016

Measuring Plains Snow Water Equivalent and Depth. Missouri Basin Water Management Division and Omaha District Method

The indicator can be used for awareness raising, evaluation of occurred droughts, forecasting future drought risks and management purposes.

A Report on a Statistical Model to Forecast Seasonal Inflows to Cowichan Lake

The Meteorological Observatory from Neumayer Gert König-Langlo, Bernd Loose Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Bremerhaven, Germany

2017 Fall Conditions Report

Missouri River Flood Task Force River Management Working Group Improving Accuracy of Runoff Forecasts

LIFE12 ENV/FIN/ st summary report of snow data 30/09/2014

Modeling of peak inflow dates for a snowmelt dominated basin Evan Heisman. CVEN 6833: Advanced Data Analysis Fall 2012 Prof. Balaji Rajagopalan

2015 Fall Conditions Report

An investigation of sampling efficiency using historical data. Patrick Didier Advisor: Justine Blanford

Snow Melt with the Land Climate Boundary Condition

Lake Tahoe Watershed Model. Lessons Learned through the Model Development Process

ABSTRACT INTRODUCTION

THE INVESTIGATION OF SNOWMELT PATTERNS IN AN ARCTIC UPLAND USING SAR IMAGERY

Gauge Undercatch of Two Common Snowfall Gauges in a Prairie Environment

The Hydrologic Cycle: How Do River Forecast Centers Measure the Parts?

Southern Sierra Critical Zone Observatory (CZO): hydrochemical characteristics, science & measurement strategy

Snowcover interaction with climate, topography & vegetation in mountain catchments

Great Lakes Update. Background

CLIMATE CHANGE AND REGIONAL HYDROLOGY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST US: Evidence of Changes, Model Projections, and Remote Sensing Approaches

Regional influence on road slipperiness during winter precipitation events. Marie Eriksson and Sven Lindqvist

NIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System March 26, 2019

Montana Drought & Climate

Basic Hydrologic Science Course Understanding the Hydrologic Cycle Section Six: Snowpack and Snowmelt Produced by The COMET Program

Incorporating Effects of Forest Litter in a Snow Process Model

NIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System January 15, 2019

2015: A YEAR IN REVIEW F.S. ANSLOW

Presented by Larry Rundquist Alaska-Pacific River Forecast Center Anchorage, Alaska April 14, 2009

1.Introduction 2.Relocation Information 3.Tourism 4.Population & Demographics 5.Education 6.Employment & Income 7.City Fees & Taxes 8.

Snow Measurement Guidelines for National Weather Service Snow Spotters

Hydrologic Forecast Centre. Manitoba Infrastructure. Winnipeg, Manitoba FEBRUARY FLOOD OUTLOOK REPORT FOR MANITOBA.

ENVS S102 Earth and Environment (Cross-listed as GEOG 102) ENVS S110 Introduction to ArcGIS (Cross-listed as GEOG 110)

Storm and Runoff Calculation Standard Review Snowmelt and Climate Change

EVALUATION AND MONITORING OF SNOWCOVER WATER RESOURCES IN CARPATHIAN BASINS USING GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION AND SATELLITE DATA

The Importance of Snowmelt Runoff Modeling for Sustainable Development and Disaster Prevention

THE ROLE OF MICROSTRUCTURE IN FORWARD MODELING AND DATA ASSIMILATION SCHEMES: A CASE STUDY IN THE KERN RIVER, SIERRA NEVADA, USA

Great Lakes Update. Volume 194: 2015 Annual Summary

NIDIS Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System April 18, 2017

A Century of Meteorological Observations at Fort Valley Experimental Forest: A Cooperative Observer Program Success Story

Location Latitude Longitude Durham, NH

Canadian Prairie Snow Cover Variability

Persistence of Soil Moisture in the Cariboo Mountains, BC

An Online Platform for Sustainable Water Management for Ontario Sod Producers

Measures Also Significant Factors of Flood Disaster Reduction

The Colorado Drought : 2003: A Growing Concern. Roger Pielke, Sr. Colorado Climate Center.

interactive web site:

Flood Forecasting Tools for Ungauged Streams in Alberta: Status and Lessons from the Flood of 2013

SLOPE SCALE AVALANCHE FORECASTING IN THE ARCTIC (SVALBARD)

Great Lakes Update. Volume 193: 2015 January through June Summary. Vol. 193 Great Lakes Update August 2015

NIDIS Intermountain West Regional Drought Early Warning System February 7, 2017

Water Information Portal User Guide. Updated July 2014

Climate Change Engineering Vulnerability Assessment. Coquihalla Highway (B.C. Highway 5) Between Nicolum River and Dry Gulch

2011 National Seasonal Assessment Workshop for the Eastern, Southern, & Southwest Geographic Areas

Intercomparision of snowfall measured by weighing and tipping bucket precipitation gauges at Jumla Airport, Nepal

Climatic Change Implications for Hydrologic Systems in the Sierra Nevada

Minnesota s Climatic Conditions, Outlook, and Impacts on Agriculture. Today. 1. The weather and climate of 2017 to date

Terrestrial Snow Cover: Properties, Trends, and Feedbacks. Chris Derksen Climate Research Division, ECCC

Bill Kappel. Doug Hultstrand. Applied Weather Associates

Transcription:

Snow Survey at the Ancient Forest 27 January 2017 1

Snow Survey 2

Tentative Agenda 3

Snow Survey Components Snow course for snow depth distribution. Snow core measurements for SWE. Snow pit for measurements and observations of snow temperature, snow grain sizes, layering and impurities. Meteorological data acquisition for interpretation of snowpack conditions. 4

Point measurements of snow depth Most simply, depth measurements of snow (snow accumulated on the ground) are made with a snow ruler or similar graduated rod that is pushed through the snow to the ground surface. Representative measurements by this method may be difficult to obtain in open areas since the snowcover undergoes drifting and may have embedded ice layers that limit penetration with a ruler. 5

Measurements of snow depth At each observing station a number of measurements are made and averaged. In remote regions, graduated snow stakes or aerial markers may be used. The snow depth at the stake or marker is observed from a distant point through binoculars or telescopes. However, rulers, stakes and aerial markers do not provide SWE information. 6

Sonic Ranger Automatic snow depth measure Determines the distance to a target by sending out ultrasonic pulses and listening for the returning echoes that are reflected from the target The time from transmission to return of an echo is used to obtain the distance measurement Air temperature correction required for variations in the speed of sound in air 7

Sonic Ranger January 20 th, 2017 8

March 23 rd, 2012

March 20 th, 2013

Snow depth distribution Neumann et al. (2006) 11

Neumann et al. (2006) 12

April 28 th, 2011 May 10 th, 2011

14

15

Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) The vertical depth of water that would be obtained by melting snow Snowfall measurement can be problematic Determining SWE from snowpack depth can be problematic Assuming mean density 100 kg m -3 (i.e. 10:1 ratio) Regional density variations (new snow: 35 101 kg m -3 ) Densification over time Measuring snowpack SWE is the standard by weight of snowpack sample 16

Snow Pillows An antifreeze filled bladder of various shapes, sizes, and materials. Minimum size based on expected winter SWE Pressure inside the pillow changes in response to the weight of snow Fluid pressure changes are measured with a manometer or pressure transducer data can be transmitted remotely 17

Snow Pillow http://watershed.mon tana.edu/hydrology/i mages/img_1053.jpg 18

Advantages: A non-destructive sampling technique Snow Pillows An automatic measure of SWE in remote locations Identify snowfall and snowmelt events Can provide rough estimates of loss of SWE Disadvantages: A point SWE measurement site representativeness important Bridging may occur separation of pillow from overlaying snow under measurement of SWE Snow pillow is a barrier to heat and moisture fluxes between snowpack and ground 19

Snow Pillows B.C. Ministry of Environment River Forecast Centre http://www.env.gov.bc.ca/rfc/ Automated Snow Pillows (ASPs) and manual snow surveys view ASP SWE graphs (daily) download temperature, precipitation, and SWE data from ASP sites (near real-time) download manual snow survey data Historic data 1935 - present Over 50 active ASP sites and almost 200 snow survey sites in the province 20

Snow Surveys Measure snow depth, density and SWE Snow course is the line of permanently marked sampling points Repeat measurements at regular intervals throughout season Location and frequency of snow survey depends on purpose: 1) as index of SWE for spring runoff prediction 2) absolute measure for hydrologic, agricultural, ecologic, transportation, recreational, and engineering functions Snow survey data are the ultimate base of comparison for other methods 21

Snow Surveys Considerations What are you measuring SWE for? Where to set up snow course? How long should the snow course be? How many sample points per course? SWE depth sampling ratio? When and how often to sample? What equipment to use? 22

Index of SWE: Snow Surveys Purpose Choose high accumulation area Show changes in SWE Represent basin characteristics Forest cover; aspect; elevation Consistent instrumentation and methodology Absolute estimate of SWE: Account for biases Instrument, method, site Account for variability in snowcover Erosional/depositional areas Stratify by landscape features 23

Accessibility Snow Surveys Site Selection Representativeness of terrain/land cover Choose slightly sloping terrain Avoid steep slopes Avoid areas with land use disturbances i.e. logging, mining, construction Avoid microsite irregularities at sample points i.e. stumps, logs, ponding areas Avoid areas with snow removal activity 24

Snow Surveys Site Selection Snowmelt for testing melt models North and south aspect Radiation differences Open and forest cover Radiation differences Similar location, slope, elevation Same weather, vegetation Access 25

Longer in complex terrain Snow Surveys Course Length More samples in complex terrain Snow course can zig-zag Oversample initially Length and sample density adjusted based on selected precision level Fewer SWE than depth measurements possible Density shows least variability Calculate SWE at depth measurement points 26

Snow Surveys Course Length cont. Cumulative coefficient of variation (C.V.) standard deviation mean Measure of variability independent of scale C.V. = Plot cumulative C.V. against length of course How many samples before C.V. levels off? 27

Snow Surveys Equipment Graduated snow tube with cutter Various materials, cutter configurations, and sizes Larger diameter tubes for shallow snowpacks Graduations on outside to measure snow depth Slots in tube to view snow core Spring balance measures SWE directly Federal (formerly Mt. Rose) snow sampler 28

B.C. Snow Survey Sampling Guide Snow Surveys Methods http://www.env.gov.bc.ca/rfc/river_fo recast/snow_surveys_manual.pdf 29

Snow Surveys Methods - 1 1. Weigh and record empty tube SWE. 2. Push tube straight into snow pack to ground. 3. Push and twist into ground to obtain soil plug. 30

Snow Surveys Methods - 2 1. Weigh and record empty tube SWE. 2. Push tube straight into snow pack to ground. 3. Push and twist into ground to obtain soil plug. 4. Record snow depth from outside of tube. 5. Carefully pull tube straight out of snowpack. 6. Check for soil plug. 31

Snow Surveys Methods - 3 1. Weigh and record empty tube SWE. 2. Push tube straight into snow pack to ground. 3. Push and twist into ground to obtain soil plug. 4. Record snow depth from outside of tube. 5. Carefully pull tube straight out of snow pack. 6. Check for soil plug. 7. Remove soil plug and estimate depth of soil in tube. 32

Snow Surveys Methods - 4 1. Weigh and record empty tube SWE. 2. Push tube straight into snow pack to ground. 3. Push and twist into ground to obtain soil plug. 4. Record snow depth from outside of tube. 5. Carefully pull tube straight out of snow pack. 6. Check for soil plug. 7. Remove soil plug and estimate depth of soil in tube. 8. Weigh and record filled tube SWE. *If hit obstruction during sampling or if no soil plug obtained re-take snow sample. 33

34

Snow Surveys Methods rinse & repeat Give tube a good shake or tap it against toe of boot to get out snow core Don t hit tube or cutter end against anything hard because it is easy to damage Check that no snow remains in tube between samples No significant snow in tube 35

Snow Surveys Tips Weighing empty tube before each sample is at your discretion Dependent on snow conditions; tube-clearing skill; level of accuracy desired Bring small, slotted screwdriver and old knife to remove soil plug, or tricky snow core, from tube Bring many pairs of gloves, grippy palms are a good idea Waterproof paper and pencil for data recording 36

Site NF GPS Date Apr 27, 2008 10 U 0588859 5894468 Aspect S Slope 16.1% Start Time 13:20 End Time 14:15 Weather Sampler Kara Recorder Audrey N-S Distance (m) 7 E-W Distance (m) Overcast, light drizzle Point Line Direction Depth w/ Soil Soil Plug SWE Empty SWE Full NOTES 1 1 5:00 67 5 88 113 20 2 1 5:00 50 7.5 87 100 3 1 5:00 55 6 86 102 4 1 5:00 67.5 10 86 94 in nasty tree well 37

Site GPS Aspect Slope Date Start Time End Time Weather Sampler Recorder N-S Distance (m) E-W Distance (m) Point Line Direction Depth w/ Soil Soil Plug SWE Empty SWE Full NOTES 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 38

Snow Surveys Issues Different samplers for different conditions Federal generally regarded as best all-around Generally overestimate SWE Design of cutting point forces more snow inside tube Ice layers Losing water from the tube during melt Gaining extra snow Through slots with twisting in deep snowpack Dull cutter Shrubs, branches, vegetation beneath the snow Air pockets Check length of core 80% snow depth; consistent density between samples Freezing of snow in the tube Particularly when air temp > 0 o C, snow temp < 0 o C 39

Measurement Errors The number and quality of data, as well as their statistical nature, impose limitations on the information that can be usually deduced; in fact, all measurements are inaccurate to some degree. The observer s procedures, the instruments and their maintenance, data transmission and transcription, may each contribute individually or collectively to errors in the published values. 40

Measurement Errors Errors may be random, such as mistakes in transcribing numbers, or systematic, such as a bias introduced by an observer or an instrument. Random errors often cluster around mean values and are generally both positive and negative so that normal or Gaussian statistics apply. Some obvious errors can be easily explained and corrected; others must be rejected if they lack a sound physical explanation, but should not be discarded, since later evidence may provide 41 an explanation.

Measurement Errors Errors that fall within reasonable limits of possibility are the most insidious since they are virtually impossible to detect. A mean value of several measurements is a better estimate of the true value, provided systematic errors are negligible. Similarly, the average of a time series may give a superior measure of its true (normal) value. 42

Measurement Errors Systematic errors may either be constant or proportional to a variable s magnitude or appear only under specific environmental conditions, e.g., when snow is wet and adhesive rather than dry and easily transported by the wind. Such errors are minor in data for indices, but are serious in data required for quantitative values. Adjustment factors can be determined to compensate for exposure bias but are somewhat subjective and cannot be freely transposed to other seasons or sites. 43

Measurement Errors Most snow courses are established to aid in predicting runoff volumes and peaks. Their data measurements are used as indices so that the measured values need not be representative of a large area. Preferably they indicate snowcover amounts over areas that contribute substantially to runoff. 44

Measurement Errors A simple comparison with values in the same general area will often indicate the extent to which exposures are comparable. Major differences should be explainable in terms of elevation, land form, vegetation, or other climatic or physical features. Snowfall and snowcover data are highly amenable to statistical analyses and probabilistic statistical association. 45

Measurement Errors Peculiarities of the data must always be kept in mind (e.g., the data must be examined critically for the occurrence of zero values and for the frequency distribution most appropriate for analysis). The choice of the most suitable theoretical distribution to be fitted depends on each dataset; for instance the incomplete gamma function is used to represent many snowfall and snowcover variables. 46

Measurement Errors The distribution of a single variable can frequently be expressed in a linear form such that: X(F) = X + s k(f) Where X(F) is the expected value of the variable whose probability of not being exceeded is F, X is the estimated mean of the population, s is the estimated standard deviation, and k(f) is the frequency factor which is chosen to correspond to a given probability level, F, and whose magnitude depends on the frequency distribution and sample size. 47

Sources of sampling errors Riming of meteorological instruments Loss of power Incorrect wiring or programming of the instrument Malfunctioning or deteriorating instrument Tampering or involuntary displacement Others?? 48

Final Preparation Checklist Review agenda and be fully prepared for an on-time departure at the bus loop at 10:30 a.m. on Friday, January 27 th, 2017. Prepare all personal gear, pack a lunch/water Read and bring all documents related to the fieldtrip and components of the snow survey. Submit the fieldwork critical data form to Stephen. Please express any concerns to Stephen prior to or during the snow survey. 50

Teams Team Alpha Team Beta 1) Hadleigh 2)? 3)? 4)? 1) Taras 2)? 3)? 4)? 51

Weather Forecast 52

53

Snow survey data Please digitize all snow survey data including snow depth, SWE and snow pit measurements Include all relevant metadata and notes from your snow survey (e.g. GPS coordinates and weather conditions) Send all the data (preferably in an Excel spreadsheet) to Stephen for upload on website Acquire meteorological data for 1 September 2016 to 27 January 2017 and begin QA/QC 54