WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION SIXTEETH REGIONAL ASSOCIATION V TROPICAL CYCLONE COMMITTEE MEETING HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS RA V-TCC-XVI/Doc.3.2 (1) (XXV.IX.2016) ENGLISH ONLY 29 AUGUST TO 02 SEPTEMBER 2016 RECENT AND CURRENT ACTIVITIES OF THE PORT MORESBY TCWC (Submitted by Papua New Guinea)
Report from Port Moresby Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (2014/15-2015/16) Introduction Under Papua New Guinea National Weather Service, Department of Transport, Port Moresby Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (Port Moresby TCWC) has a defined Tropical Cyclone and marine warning zones for which it issues warnings and special bulletins (area shaded in blue in Figure 2). Port Moresby is designated as a TCWC with geographic specialization EQ 141E, 10S 141E, 09S 144E, 12S 147E, 12S 155E, 08S 155E, 05S 160E, EQ 160E, EQ 141E (Figure 1). The geographical area for which Port Moresby is responsible is not explicitly defined other than a related reference to zones of responsibility, listed by countries in the Annex to Appendix I-5 of the Manual on the Global Data-Processing and Forecasting System (GDPFS), WMO-No. 485 Volume I. Figure 1: PNG Boarders Australia (south), Indonesia (west) Solomon Islands (east) and Federal States of Micronesia FSM (north) Figure 2: Port Moresby TCWC Area of Responsibility Monitoring role in the tropics The Solomon and Coral Seas are the tropical cyclone prone areas within tropical region of Papua New Guinea. These areas are of high strategic importance since weather systems originating there may have a high impact on the country and its neighbors Australia and Solomon Islands. The tropical cyclones in these regions often receive high coverage in the PNG media. Consequently Port Moresby maintains a very close watch and contact on the activity in the Brisbane TCWC at all times and ensures forecasts and warnings are consistent and always available for dissemination to maritime or Island communities within the cyclone prone areas. This role of maintaining a weather watch over Papua New Guinea has been mandated to National Weather Service of the Department of Transport by the Government of Papua New Guinea. PNG National Weather Service is the sole Government organization and makes available special weather and climate bulletins related to hazardous weather and climate in Papua New Guinea. These warning of hazardous weather and climate such as Tropical Cyclones, Tsunamis, and drought are disseminated through the media (Radios, TV, and Newspapers). The Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) Port Moresby s role is carried out by a section of the Papua New Guinea National Weather Service Forecasting and Author: Mr. Jimmy Gomoga August 25 2016 Page 2 of 11
Nino3.4 Mean Monthly Rainfall (mm) D EE PP A R TT M EE N TT O FF TT R A N SS PP O R TT Warning Centre known as "Port Moresby TCWC" in addition to the nations forecasting responsibilities. For the remainder of this report, "Port Moresby TCWC" will be referred to as "Port Moresby". The Port Moresby Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre comes under the Forecasting and Warning Centre of the National Weather Service and the Director is responsible for the operation of the Port Moresby TCWC. Annually, from 1 November to 31 May, Port Moresby produces a daily Tropical Cyclone Potential Bulletin for National Disaster Centre (NDC) to keep them abreast of the latest expectations of cyclone activity in the South Pacific and to help them with their disaster relief planning. Additional advisories are also provided as necessary during the life of a tropical cyclone to fill any information gaps. During this same period, a routine weekly forecaster-to-forecaster conference call is carried out between Brisbane TCWC and Port Moresby forecasters to discuss the situation and developments over the next few days. Figure 3: Monthly variation of Tropical Cyclones in Papua New Guinea for period 1993-2016 Figure 4: Seasonal variation of Tropical Cyclones in Papua New Guinea for period 1993-2016 1.4 PNG Mean Monthly Rainfall (1950-2003) correlation = 0.10 300.0 1.2 Nino3.4 PNGRF 280.0 1.0 260.0 0.8 240.0 0.6 220.0 0.4 200.0 0.2 180.0 0.0 jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec jan 160.0-0.2 140.0-0.4 120.0-0.6 Month 100.0 Figure 5: Monthly mean winds over Papua New Guinea for period 1950-2003 Figure 6: Monthly mean rainfall over Papua New Guinea for period 1950-2003 Note from figures 3, 4, 5 and 6, many of the tropical cyclones in a season occur in January and February (Figure 3) and this is also during the peak of NW monsoon winds (figure 5) and maximum NW monsoon rainfall occurs one month after the peak Author: Mr. Jimmy Gomoga August 25 2016 Page 3 of 11
of the NW monsoon winds (Figures 5 & 6). There is also a strong seasonal variation of Tropical Cyclones depending on the sea surface temperatures and El Nino (Figures 4 & 6). On extreme cases, Papua New Guinea has seen Tropical Cyclones form very early in the season as the case of Tropical Cyclone Guba which formed on the 11 th November 2007 and caused severe damage in Oro, with more than 200 lives lost and very late in the season as in the case of Tropical Cyclone Upia which formed late in May and dissipated in June 2002. Port Moresby TCWC role Port Moresby is responsible for forecasts and warnings on tropical cyclones south of EQ 141E, 10S 141E, 09S 144E, 12S 147E, 12S 155E, 08S 155E, 05S 160E, EQ 160E, EQ 141E, 25ºS (Figure 1). Each time a system either develops within or enters and is forecasted to remain in Port Moresby s area of responsibility, the National Disaster Centre (NDC) is alerted and Port Moresby establishes a close liaison with Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre. If a system is forecasted to develop into a Tropical Cyclone and threaten or strike Papua New Guinea within 18 hours, Port Moresby issue a Tropical Cyclone alert, mapping out the likely warning area. Within the likely warning zone Schools and businesses close and people secure habitat and belongings. When the Tropical Cyclone develops and threatens or strike within 6 hours of striking alert Port Moresby issues a Flash Tropical Cyclone Warning and alert population within the affected area to remain confined in sturdy habitat. High Seas forecasts and warnings Port Moresby routinely prepares marine warnings (including tropical cyclones) for the area between EQ 141E, 10S 141E, 09S 144E, 12S 147E, 12S 155E, 08S 155E, 05S 160E, EQ 160E, EQ 141E every 6 hours. Approximately 100 warnings are issued per month. In these sea areas, Port Moresby strives to maintain consistency with the Australian warnings. The forecasts and warnings are provided to all media (Radio, TV, Newspapers) for broadcast over high frequency (HF) and very high frequency (VHF) radio. Non-meteorological information Port Moresby also relays information received from international sources concerning nuclear incidents (National Weather Service is the National Warning Point under the Emergency Notification and Assistance Conventions as facilitated by the International Atomic Energy Agency and liaises closely with the National Disaster Centre and the Ministry of Health). 2014/ 2015 Tropical Cyclone Season The 2014/ 2015 season started off with neutral conditions and quickly developed into El Nino conditions by the end of April. Tropical Cyclone activity was well distributed Author: Mr. Jimmy Gomoga August 25 2016 Page 4 of 11
across the Pacific and shifted eastward as the El Nino developed. Tropical Cyclone Nathan formed in the Coral Sea on 21 March 2015 and reached category 3 (Figure 7 & table 1). A favorable upper pattern resulted in the rapid development of a low embedded in the monsoon trough. Figure 7: Image of Typhoon Bavi, TC Olywn, TC Nathan and TC Pam March 2015 The combined but indirect effect from other systems, TC Pam east of Nathan, Typhoon Bavi across the equator near Guam and Olywn in the eastern Indian Ocean enhanced northwest monsoon surges across Papua New Guinea (Figure 7). The Port Moresby TCWC issued storm wind warnings for Central, Milne Bay and West New Britain. There was substantial damage of Oil Palms costing several million dollars in the West New Britain Province. These combined systems also enhanced the El Nino conditions to be established across the Pacific. The usual forecaster to forecaster telephone discussions were maintained between the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane TCWC and Port Moresby TCWC regarding meteorological parameters surrounding the tropical cyclones throughout the season. Several Gale warnings were issued during the dry season months of June and July. Name Maximum development Period Natan Category 3 21-26 March 2015 Table 1: List of Tropical Cyclones affecting Papua New Guinea during the last two Tropical Cyclone Seasons (2014/15 2015/16). Author: Mr. Jimmy Gomoga August 25 2016 Page 5 of 11
2015/ 2016 Tropical Cyclone Season The 2015/ 2016 season continued with El Nino conditions. Tropical Cyclone activity had shifted towards the central and eastern Pacific. The El Nino conditions prevail throughout the season and decayed in June 2016. There was no tropical cyclone activity in Port Moresby s area of responsibility, however, several Gale warning were issued during the peak of the SE Trade season (June August). Forecasting systems SMARTMET, a State of Art Forecasting System donated by Finland Meteorological Institute, Government of Finland became operational in November 2014. The ICT section is developing web products now and website: www.pngmet.gov.pg. A new, WMO Himari-8 Satellite Receiving system for managing and viewing satellite imagery data was installed in February 2016 and operating well. Observation systems Port Moresby GUAN station has been restored by the joint effort of the WMO, US, Australia and New Zealand, however, lack of funding for consumables continues to hamper its operations. Under the World Bank funding administered by SOPAC, two (2) AWSs have been purchased and installed in Port Moresby and Goroka and became operational in August 2015. Training & research Importantly, PNG National Weather Service is primarily focused on operational forecasting, and the research and development work undertaken is focused in the area of improving tools, knowledge and skills of forecasters, and the quality and efficiency of the output. In 2014-2016 PNGNWS participated in the number of training and these include; Pacific Desk, Hawaii, USA, FINPAC Training in Samoa and Fiji, Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone Workshop, Melbourne Australia, WMO Class I training in Malaysia, Asia/ Oceania Satellite Users Conference, Tokyo, Japan. Communications and Data Centre PNGNWS continues to use TELIKOM Systems (Fiber Link, unlimited, 2MBPS uplink and downlink), however, getting the information from and to the remote locations continue to be a challenge. Most mobile carriers use TELIKOM Towers, but these communication links do not reach into the remote areas. EMWIN system, probably the only one still operating in the Pacific has been maintained and continues to operate well since installation. The Dish has grown Author: Mr. Jimmy Gomoga August 25 2016 Page 6 of 11
rusty and requires replacing and system upgraded for two way communications (downlink and uplink). PNGNWS do not have these RANET/ Chattee Beetle systems set up yet. There have been some site testing and RANET Dish setup, but no further progress has been made. These are very necessary systems to get the information to and from the remote areas and we look forward to any opportunities to have these systems for Papua New Guinea. HF Radios, PNGNWS continues to use these as backup systems to the main Telikom telephone/ fax lines. Again PNGNWS look forward to opportunities to have these systems upgraded to HF email... PNGNWS had VSAT communication link into Hawaii Communications Portal and the system worked very well, however, when the local ISP representing the Hawaii Communications Portal decided to switch to mobile carrier within the country the dish was turned off. Plans are under way to have this system upgraded for the end to end multi-hazard early warning system and the RIMES Sub Regional Hub for the Pacific. LRIT has been turned off and awaiting system upgrades, In the meantime Goes DCS system user Agreement is been completed for PNGNWS. PNG has installed five (5) AWS's, however; communication continues to be a major challenge in getting the information back to the Headquarters in Port Moresby. The SIM Card option needs continuous top up to maintain the mobile link. Second option is through Satellite; however, the access to these servers where the data is stored continues to be a challenge and requires clearance. Maintenance and ICT Training is a priority to maintain these communication, display and processing systems PNGNWS communications systems are upgraded to have independent broadband communications link for the Nation's Capital in Port Moresby and have terminals located within key technical agencies (NDC, Geohazards, and Hydrology) which are under different Departments. Under the Recurrent Budget the fiber link was upgraded to 2mbps. The two NEC Decision 212/2013 relating to Rabaul Queen Inquiry COI and Recommendations and NEC Decision 341/2014 relating to the Status of PNG National Weather Service (Mini Diagnostic Report 2014), PNG Government allocated some funding and Communications and Data Centre projects were initiated to address the recommendations (Figure 8). The Rabaul Queen Court Case is continuing and PNG National Weather Service was summoned to give evidence in June 2016. Verdict is yet to be served. PNG Early Warning Centre and RIMES Sub Regional Hub for the Pacific The Regional Integrated Multi-hazard Early Warning System (RIMES) team from Bangkok was in Port Moresby (15-19 August 2016) to assess the country s early Author: Mr. Jimmy Gomoga August 25 2016 Page 7 of 11
warning system. The team also scoped to establish the RIMES Sub Regional Hub for the Pacific following the RIMES Ministerial Conference in July 2015 and PNG Government s approval (NEC Decision 241/2015) for PNG to host the RIMES Sub Regional Hub. Figure 8: Status of the current Communications and Data Centre Projects In accordance with the Declaration of the 2 nd RIMES Ministerial Conference (10 July 2015, New Delhi) to pursue Papua New Guinea s proposal on decentralization of RIMES program implementation through sub-regional mechanisms, Papua New Guinea, through its National Executive Council, approved on 6 August 2015 the country s hosting of the RIMES Sub-Regional Hub for the Pacific Region, and committed about USD 350,000 for establishing a facility to function as the hub. Late last year (29 November 1 December 2015), Papua New Guinea s Geohazards Management Division (GMD) and the National Weather Service (NWS) met with RIMES Program Unit in Bangkok, Thailand, and detailed the features, technical design, and capacity requirements of the Sub-Regional Hub, and prepared an action plan for establishing the RIMES Sub-Regional Hub for the Pacific, which shall also function as Papua New Guinea s Multi-Hazard Early Warning Center. The meeting envisioned the Papua New Guinea Multi-Hazard Early Warning Center and RIMES Sub-Regional Hub for the Pacific as having the following operational units: Author: Mr. Jimmy Gomoga August 25 2016 Page 8 of 11
a) Geological services (earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption, landslide) b) Ocean, weather and climate services (ocean state, extreme weather events, climate variability and change) c) Hydrological services (flash flood, riverine flood, storm surge, rain-induced landslide) d) Observation systems services e) ICT applications f) Societal applications g) Program support and administration In accordance with RIMES requirements for sub-regional hubs, the Center will have the following functions, to enable it to serve as RIMES Sub-Regional Hub for the Pacific: a) Facilitate assessments of early warning system gaps and needs in the countries and the identification of priority gaps and needs that would need assistance through a sub-regional capacity building program b) Facilitate establishment and maintenance of observing and monitoring networks in the countries c) Downscale RIMES products to make them relevant to the countries in the region d) Customize RIMES tools according to national and local contexts of countries in the region e) Undertake research and development for delivery of cutting edge technologies that are low-cost, efficient, and appropriate for the countries in the region f) Build capacity of early warning information generators in the countries on new products, tools, and technologies g) Build capacity of users of early warning information to enhance warning response capacities h) Monitor and evaluate the effectiveness and impact of capacity building activities, and assess residual gaps i) Convene and report to the Sub-Regional RIMES Council on status of implementation of the sub-regional capacity building program, including experiences, successes, and lessons j) Periodic reporting to the RIMES Council A key activity of the action plan, which was developed late last year, was RIMES visit to Papua New Guinea for a capacity and need assessment, to guide the establishment of the Papua New Guinea Multi-Hazard Early Warning Center and RIMES Sub-Regional Hub for the Pacific, as well as inform the development of a capacity building program. As part of this key activity, a preliminary capacity and need assessment was undertaken from 15-19 August 2016 and: a) Assessed existing facilities and support services for establishing the facility b) Engaged with various Government departments/ agencies that will be participating to form the multi-disciplinary Multi-Hazard Early Warning Center c) Detailed the mechanism for staffing the Center and Sub-Regional Hub Author: Mr. Jimmy Gomoga August 25 2016 Page 9 of 11
d) Undertook preliminary capacity assessments for providing geological, ocean, weather, climate, hydrological, and observation system services e) Undertook preliminary capacity assessments in ICT and societal applications, for bridging science-based information providers and users f) Updated the action plan for establishing the Multi-Hazard Early Warning Center and Sub-Regional Hub Report of the preliminary capacity and need assessment will become available to Papua New Guinea within one month from August 2016. The assessment had two components: a) technical assessment for service delivery, which was undertaken by Dr. Itesh Dash, Team Leader, Systems Research and Development, RIMES; and b) institutional assessment, focusing on policy and mechanism for creating a multi-disciplinary, multi-hazard warning center, which was undertaken by Mr. A.R. Subbiah, Director, RIMES. These were in parallel sessions over 4 days (15-18 August 2016), targeting operational units for the technical assessment, and senior management for the institutional assessment. A meeting in plenary, consisting of all 5 Government Departments/ Agencies involved in early warning, was conducted on the 5 th day (19 August 2016) and initial findings were presented, and the action plan was updated toward establishing the Papua New Guinea Multi-Hazard Early Warning Center and RIMES Sub-Regional Hub for the Pacific. Recommendations 1. Training of Operational Forecasters, research meteorologist in the area of Tropical Cyclone & Storm Surge Forecasting; 2. Training in the use of Operational Tropical Cyclone Forecasting and Tracking TC Module Software to improve the quality and efficiency of its Tropical Cyclone warning system and products. Port Moresby TCWC does not have specialized Tropical Cyclone Tracking Software (TC Module, Synergy, etc.); 3. Access and Training in use of EC EPSgrams, Ensemble and Deterministic/ Probability Forecasts; 4. Case Studies, Evaluation of Past Tropical Cyclones; 5. Support RIMES Sub Regional Hub Activities. 6. LRIT, RANET, Chattee Beetle and HF email options to be considered for last mile remote communications. Summary On the average Papua New Guinea receives one (1) Tropical Cyclone a year, however the number varies seasonally. Some seasons has seen two (2) or three cyclones formed whilst others have literally none. Many of these Tropical Cyclones have formed in February during the peaking of NW monsoon (NW Trades) over Papua New Guinea. In 2014/2015 season Tropical Cyclone Nathan formed in the Coral Sea on 21 March 2015 and reached category 3. A favorable upper pattern resulted in the rapid development of a low embedded in the monsoon trough. The combined but indirect effect from other systems, TC Pam east of Nathan, Typhoon Bavi across the equator Author: Mr. Jimmy Gomoga August 25 2016 Page 10 of 11
near Guam and Olywn in the eastern Indian Ocean enhanced northwest monsoon surges across Papua New Guinea. The Port Moresby TCWC issued storm wind warnings for Central, Milne Bay and West New Britain. There was substantial damage of Oil Palms costing several millions of dollars in the West New Britain Province. These combined systems also enhanced the El Nino conditions to be established across the Pacific. In 2015/2016 season, there were no tropical cyclone activity in Port Moresby s area of responsibility, however, several Gale warning were issued during the peak of the SE Trade season (June August). During the period 2014-2016, number of installations took place; the Himawari 8/9 Satellite Receiving system became operation in February 2016 and under the Recurrent Budget Funding, Internet link was upgraded to 2mbps. The Government released some funding to address the Rabaul Queen Inquiry COI and Recommendations and Mini Diagnostics on the status of the PNG National Weather Service Report and Recommendations and PNG National Weather Service has started upgrading its Communications and Data Centre facilities. LRIT, RANET, Chattee Beetle and HF email options to be considered for last mile remote communications. Preliminary Assessment has been completed by RIMES for establishment of country s multi-hazard early warning centre and the RIMES Sub Regional Hub for the Pacific in Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea. RIMES brings into the region technical expertise and tools and will complement WMO framework for End To End Multihazard Early Warning System and under WIS framework the establishment of RIMES Sub Regional Hub will increase the status of Papua New Guinea from being a National Centre (NC) to Data Collection Product Centre (DCPC). Author: Mr. Jimmy Gomoga August 25 2016 Page 11 of 11